1. Strength against strength

   The Canadiens are one of the league’s best for chance quality, and the Maple Leafs are near the top of the league at preventing dangerous shots. Our lean: the Canadiens’ chance quality wins out.

   The call The Canadiens’ chances are more dangerous than the league average (a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot) against the Maple Leafs.

   Montréal 2nd for chance quality (a 6.8% chance of scoring on the average shot) · Toronto 8th for preventing dangerous shots

   Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 0 and 0 games this season

2. The Canadiens lock it down; the Maple Leafs don’t

   The Canadiens are around the middle of the league for shot suppression, at the stingy end; the Maple Leafs are the league’s worst, at the porous end. Expect that gap to show.

   The call The Canadiens allow fewer 5-on-5 shot attempts per 60 than the Maple Leafs.

   Shot suppression: Montréal 17th, Toronto 32nd

   Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 0 and 0 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

How Montréal and Toronto play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 0 and 0 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 0 games for Montréal, 0 for Toronto. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

• Quality allowed
  ExposedSheltered

  • Montréal: a 6.7% chance of scoring on the average shot against30th of 32

    Montréal: nothing to show yet this season

  • Toronto: a 6.1% chance of scoring on the average shot against8th of 32

    Toronto: nothing to show yet this season

• Off-turnover offense
  PatientOpportunist

  • Montréal: 6.8% of chances come right after a turnover23rd of 32

    Montréal: nothing to show yet this season

  • Toronto: 8.7% of chances come right after a turnover1st of 32

    Toronto: nothing to show yet this season

• Pace
  SlogTrack meet

  • Montréal: 79.9 shots per 60, both teams combined25th of 32

    Montréal: nothing to show yet this season

  • Toronto: 84.6 shots per 60, both teams combined4th of 32

    Toronto: nothing to show yet this season

• Shot suppression
  PorousStingy

  • Montréal: 57.3 shot attempts allowed per 6017th of 32

    Montréal: nothing to show yet this season

  • Toronto: 63.6 shot attempts allowed per 6032nd of 32

    Toronto: nothing to show yet this season

• Goaltending
  SieveWall

  • Montréal: +0.16 goals saved above expected per 606th of 32

    Montréal: nothing to show yet this season

  • Toronto: +0.08 goals saved above expected per 6019th of 32

    Toronto: nothing to show yet this season

• Depth
  Top-heavyDeep

  • Montréal: 42.8% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six6th of 32

    Montréal: nothing to show yet this season

  • Toronto: 41.4% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six19th of 32

    Toronto: nothing to show yet this season

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Toronto is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (0 and 0 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Who Toronto is likely to send against whom

Toronto has not played at home yet this season, so there is no matching habit to show.

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

• Sources. Game data from the NHL; expected goals from this site’s own model, cross-checked against MoneyPuck.com.
• Early season. Montréal has played 0 games and Toronto 0, so most numbers blend this season with last. The season switch at the top shows this season alone.
• Percentiles and ranks compare a team or player with the rest of the league: 90 means better than 90% of the league at that thing.
• Blind spots. Public game data doesn’t record passes before a shot, where defenders are standing, or rushes up the ice, so the site shows none of those.
• Hits, giveaways and takeaways depend on each arena’s scorer; anything built on them is arena-adjusted. How it works.
• Key players for each side are on the team pages.

Team pages: Montréal Canadiens · Toronto Maple Leafs