Real data. Everything on this page is computed from actual games.
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Hits and takeaways

Track record

Every preview makes a few calls before puck drop. After the game, each is checked by the rule written down with it. This is the running score.

How the calls are doing

Every graded call this season. Bolder is better.

53% held up

157 calls in 69 games

By kind of call

Some calls ask more of a team than others.

  1. Strength meets weaknessHeld up if the team reached their usual level
    24626

    43% of 56

  2. One team comes out aheadHeld up if they won by half their usual margin
    32320

    58% of 55

  3. Strength against strengthHeld up if the side we picked won out, judged against the league average
    108

    56% of 18

  4. Pace of the gameHeld up if the game ran at the teams’ usual pace (newer previews: faster or slower than either team’s usual)
    104

    71% of 14

  5. A physical gameHeld up if the hit score reached the teams’ usual
    421

    57% of 7

  6. A goalie record that’s a coincidenceHeld up if his night was closer to his usual than to that record
    24

    33% of 6

  7. Not the team you rememberHeld up if the team played more like this season than their two-season level
    1

    100% of 1

Week by week

Each column is one week of graded calls.

51%

Sep 28

56%

Oct 5

Latest calls

The most recent calls and how each one went.

  1. Didn’t happen
    Two of the league’s busiest games meet

    ANA at WPG · Oct 9 · 64.4 per 60 (usual 84.9 per 60)

  2. Didn’t happen
    Expect Anaheim to fire from everywhere

    ANA at WPG · Oct 9 · 44.3 per 60 (usual 59.8 per 60)

  3. Didn’t happen
    The Penguins kill penalties far better than the Blue Jackets

    PIT at CBJ · Oct 9 · PIT 7.3 per 60 · CBJ 0.0 per 60 (usual PIT 7.0 per 60 · CBJ 8.6 per 60)

  4. Held up
    Something has to give

    PIT at CBJ · Oct 9 · 8.0% a shot (usual 6.8% a shot)

  5. Held up
    The Rangers feed on mistakes, and the Capitals make them

    NYR at WSH · Oct 9 · 17.6% (usual 7.6%)

  6. Held up
    Special teams lean toward the Rangers

    NYR at WSH · Oct 9 · 9.7 per 60 (usual 8.3 per 60)

  7. Didn’t happen
    Special teams lean toward the Red Wings

    SEA at DET · Oct 9 · 4.5 per 60 (usual 8.6 per 60)

  8. Didn’t happen
    Quality over quantity for the Golden Knights

    TOR at VGK · Oct 8 · 5.5% a shot (usual 6.7% a shot)

  9. Held up
    The Golden Knights’ power play has a target

    TOR at VGK · Oct 8 · 9.8 per 60 (usual 9.0 per 60)

  10. Didn’t happen
    Bobrovsky’s record against the Golden Knights is a coincidence

    TOR at VGK · Oct 8 · .930 (usual .901)

  11. Held up
    Don’t judge the Maple Leafs by last season

    TOR at VGK · Oct 8 · 56.6 per 60 (usual 54.1 per 60)

  12. Held up
    Expect a track meet

    COL at CGY · Oct 8 · 97.4 per 60 (usual 88.6 per 60)

Show 28 moreShow fewer
  1. Didn’t happen
    The Avalanche feed on mistakes, and the Flames make them

    COL at CGY · Oct 8 · 3.3% (usual 7.7%)

  2. Held up
    The matchup inside the matchup

    COL at CGY · Oct 8 · 58.9 per 60 (usual 64.2 per 60)

  3. Held up
    Don’t blink and you still might miss the shots

    SJS at STL · Oct 8 · 76.7 per 60 (usual 78.5 per 60)

  4. Held up
    The Blues should get some good looks

    SJS at STL · Oct 8 · 10.1% a shot (usual 6.7% a shot)

  5. Didn’t happen
    Hofer’s rough record against the Sharks is a coincidence

    SJS at STL · Oct 8 · .889 (usual .914)

  6. Held up
    Depth against star power

    CHI at NYI · Oct 8 · NYI 47% · CHI 42% (usual NYI 44% · CHI 41%)

  7. Didn’t happen
    Turnovers could swing this one

    CHI at NYI · Oct 8 · 4.2% (usual 7.6%)

  8. Held up
    The Canucks can’t afford to take penalties

    VAN at CAR · Oct 8 · 21.5 per 60 (usual 8.0 per 60)

  9. Partly
    The Hurricanes should pile up the shots

    VAN at CAR · Oct 8 · 59.4 per 60 (usual 66.7 per 60)

  10. Didn’t happen
    Something has to give

    MIN at TBL · Oct 8 · 5.9% a shot (usual 6.7% a shot)

  11. Didn’t happen
    The Senators lock it down; the Flyers don’t

    PHI at OTT · Oct 8 · OTT 66.6 per 60 · PHI 48.8 per 60 (usual OTT 52.7 per 60 · PHI 62.4 per 60)

  12. Held up
    Bring a pillow

    PHI at OTT · Oct 8 · 77.1 per 60 (usual 77.5 per 60)

  13. Partly
    Two of the league’s heaviest-hitting teams

    PHI at OTT · Oct 8 · hit score 110 (usual hit score 116)

  14. Didn’t happen
    The Canadiens hit; the Predators mostly don’t

    NSH at MTL · Oct 8 · MTL hit score 52 · NSH hit score 78 (usual MTL hit score 109 · NSH hit score 85)

  15. Held up
    Good looks against hopeful ones

    NSH at MTL · Oct 8 · MTL 7.1% a shot · NSH 3.8% a shot (usual MTL 6.9% a shot · NSH 6.1% a shot)

  16. Didn’t happen
    Active D against forward-led

    DAL at BUF · Oct 8 · DAL 19% · BUF 24% (usual DAL 35% · BUF 34%)

  17. Held up
    One power play bites, one doesn’t

    DAL at BUF · Oct 8 · DAL 17.7 per 60 · BUF 2.2 per 60 (usual DAL 8.8 per 60 · BUF 7.1 per 60)

  18. Didn’t happen
    Sheltered against exposed

    UTA at BOS · Oct 8 · BOS 9.6% a shot · UTA 7.5% a shot (usual BOS 6.1% a shot · UTA 6.7% a shot)

  19. Didn’t happen
    The Bruins can’t afford to take penalties

    UTA at BOS · Oct 8 · 5.2 per 60 (usual 8.4 per 60)

  20. Held up
    Quality over quantity for the Oilers

    EDM at ANA · Oct 7 · 7.5% a shot (usual 6.5% a shot)

  21. Didn’t happen
    The Oilers can’t afford to cough it up

    EDM at ANA · Oct 7 · 0.4% (usual 7.7%)

  22. Held up
    Nobody’s sitting back in this one

    COL at WPG · Oct 7 · 94.8 per 60 (usual 88.2 per 60)

  23. Partly
    The Avalanche are going to test the Jets’ goalie early and often

    COL at WPG · Oct 7 · 69.4 per 60 (usual 69.6 per 60)

  24. Held up
    Airtight against leaky on the kill

    PIT at WSH · Oct 7 · PIT 8.3 per 60 · WSH 9.4 per 60 (usual PIT 6.9 per 60 · WSH 8.1 per 60)

  25. Held up
    Nobody’s sitting back in this one

    PIT at WSH · Oct 7 · 88.7 per 60 (usual 84.2 per 60)

  26. Partly
    Expect the Penguins to fire from everywhere

    PIT at WSH · Oct 7 · 59.0 per 60 (usual 60.2 per 60)

  27. Held up
    The Penguins should get some good looks

    PIT at WSH · Oct 7 · 8.9% a shot (usual 6.7% a shot)

  28. Held up
    Bruisers against finesse

    FLA at LAK · Oct 6 · FLA hit score 190 · LAK hit score 77 (usual FLA hit score 144 · LAK hit score 88)

Win chances, after the fact

When we gave a team about 60%, did teams like that win about 60% of the time?

This season

40 of 69

games won by the team we favoured (58%)

Home team every time

57%

the score to beat this season

2023–24 to 2025–26

58% vs 54%

favourite against home team, 3,936 games

Show

Chance we gave How often they won Likely range

  1. 50%-55%
    53% of 17
  2. 55%-60%
    45% of 20
  3. 60%-65%
    58% of 12
  4. 65%-70%
    60% of 10
  5. 70%+
    90% of 10

Small samples: each row is only a handful of games so far, so the ranges are wide.

The win chance is never shown before a game. It is worked out afterwards from what was known that morning, and each post-game page reveals it with the reasons.