Columbus Blue Jackets

How Columbus plays, trait by trait, against the rest of the league.

Real numbers through Oct 10: 3 games this season, blended with last season. Traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

Real numbers through Oct 10, from this season’s 3 games only. Expect these to swing a lot this early, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

Offense

• Shot volume
  SelectiveRelentless

  58.2 shot attempts per 6010th of 32

  54.8 shot attempts per 6018th of 32

• Shot quality
  HopefulDangerous

  a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot12th of 32

  a 7.8% chance of scoring on the average shot1st of 32

• Second chances
  One-and-doneCrashers

  10.2% of chances come from rebounds17th of 32

  23.0% of chances come from rebounds3rd of 32

• Off-turnover offense
  PatientOpportunist

  7.2% of chances come right after a turnover21st of 32

  1.7% of chances come right after a turnover32nd of 32

• Shots from defensemen
  Forward-ledActive D

  36.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen4th of 32

  36.0% of shot attempts come from defensemen10th of 32

• Shots from in close
  From distanceIn close

  30.3% of shots come from within 20 feet21st of 32

  32.3% of shots come from within 20 feet18th of 32

Defense

• Shot suppression
  PorousStingy

  57.3 shot attempts allowed per 6019th of 32

  56.6 shot attempts allowed per 6020th of 32

• Quality allowed
  ExposedSheltered

  a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against9th of 32

  a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against15th of 32

• Breakdowns avoided
  Fire drillComposed

  0.38 defensive breakdowns per 606th of 32

  0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

• Goaltending
  SieveWall

  +0.13 goals saved above expected per 6010th of 32

  −0.03 goals saved above expected per 6019th of 32

Tempo and edge

• Pace
  SlogTrack meet

  83.5 shots per 60, both teams combined10th of 32

  78.1 shots per 60, both teams combined20th of 32

• Forecheck pressure
  PassiveHounding

  forecheck score 108 (100 is league average)9th of 3223.2 forecheck plays recorded per 6013th of 32

  forecheck score 106 (100 is league average)11th of 3224.0 forecheck plays recorded per 6016th of 32

• Physicality
  FinesseBruising

  hit score 103 (100 is league average)14th of 3225.7 hits recorded per 6020th of 32

  hit score 108 (100 is league average)11th of 3229.1 hits recorded per 6018th of 32

• Depth
  Top-heavyDeep

  42.7% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six13th of 32

  43.4% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six13th of 32

Special teams

• Power play
  HarmlessLethal

  7.4 expected goals per 60 on the power play16th of 32

  7.1 expected goals per 60 on the power play15th of 32

• Penalty kill
  LeakyAirtight

  8.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded29th of 32

  7.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded20th of 32

• Power kill
  BunkeredPredatory

  0.9 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded18th of 32

  0.6 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded21st of 32

• Discipline
  RecklessClean

  0.13 more penalties taken than drawn per 6025th of 32

  0.32 more penalties taken than drawn per 6021st of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are shown as arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Who Columbus leans on, and what they do best.

• Adam Fantilli

  #19 · Center · 19:59 a game

  1 P in 3 GP (1 G, 0 A)

  
  • Most ice time
  • L2 · Johnson, Knies
  • PP1
  • Tough minutes
  • Faceoffs1st
  • Takeawaystop 3%
  • Shooting volumetop 18%
  • Preventing chancesbottom 10%
  • Faceoffs1st
  • Takeawaystop 4%
  • Hittingtop 19%

• Charlie Coyle

  #3 · Center · 19:19 a game

  3 P in 3 GP (0 G, 3 A)

  
  • 2nd in ice time
  • L1 · Olivier, Sillinger
  • PP1
  • Kills penalties
  • Tough minutes
  • Tough minutes
  • Setting up goalstop 4%
  • Staying out of the boxtop 4%
  • Takeawaystop 8%
  • Distance skatedbottom 14%
  • Creating chancestop 20%
  • Hardest shottop 9%

• Matthew Knies

  #89 · Left wing · 18:09 a game

  4 P in 3 GP (2 G, 2 A)

  
  • L2 · Johnson, Fantilli
  • PP1
  • Tough minutes
  • Tough minutes
  • Setting up goalstop 10%
  • Shooting volumebottom 3%
  • Takeawaystop 19%
  • Drawing penaltiestop 19%
  • Hardest shottop 9%
  • Distance skatedbottom 7%

• Kent Johnson

  #91 · Center · 16:46 a game

  2 P in 3 GP (1 G, 1 A)

  
  • L2 · Knies, Fantilli
  • PP1
  • Tough minutes
  • Tough minutes
  • Finishingbottom 4%
  • Hittingbottom 16%

• Zach Werenski

  #8 · Defenseman · 30:02 a game

  3 P in 3 GP (0 G, 3 A)

  
  • Most ice time
  • P1 · Mateychuk
  • PP1
  • Kills penalties
  • Tough minutes
  • Tough minutes
  • Creating chancesTop 10
  • Staying out of the boxTop 10
  • Creating his own chancestop 5%
  • Hittingbottom 4%
  • Setting up goalstop 19%
  • Creating chancestop 19%
  • Hittingbottom 17%

• Denton Mateychuk

  #5 · Defenseman · 26:21 a game

  1 P in 3 GP (0 G, 1 A)

  
  • 2nd in ice time
  • P1 · Werenski
  • PP2
  • Kills penalties
  • Tough minutes
  • Tough minutes
  • Finishing3rd
  • Creating chancestop 23%
  • Distance skatedtop 8%
  • Hittingbottom 16%
  • Fast burststop 6%
  • Top speedtop 7%
  • Distance skatedtop 9%

The 4 forwards and 2 defensemen with the most ice time a game (at least half the games played). Tags show how each is used; rows show his clearest strengths, and a weak spot in grey, as a percentile against his position. Point at anything for details. All Blue Jackets players.

Who plays together at 5-on-5, and how each group is doing.

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over the team’s last 10 games (3 so far this season), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Last game

Which opposing lines each Columbus group has actually been out against at 5-on-5.

Each strip adds to 100%: it shows how one Columbus group’s 5-on-5 time is split across the opponent’s four forward lines, numbered the same way as above. Sized by ice time, a wider box means more time against that line; even columns line the boxes up so you can compare groups straight down. At home the coach changes last and picks these matchups; on the road the other coach does. Faded rows have under ten minutes.

What “with no line matching” means: if a coach just rolled his lines and took whoever was out there, each of his groups would face the opponent’s first line about as often as that line is on the ice. If opposing first lines play a third of the time against Columbus, every Columbus group would see them for about a third of its shifts. A number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against them on purpose; well below means he is keeping it away.

Who Columbus sends out with a man up and a man down.

Each power-play unit is built around its quarterback, the defenseman running it, plus the four players most often out with him over the last 10 games (3 so far). Power-play units’ expected goals per 60 are pulled toward league average while samples are small. Penalty kills are too loose for fixed units (the most common foursome covers only about a tenth of a typical team’s shorthanded time), so penalty killers are grouped by when they go on: the ones who start kills, the second wave who come on after the first change, and spot duty. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

What the tags mean

Quarterbackthe defenseman who runs the unit from the blue line.

Triggerthe unit’s main shooter, with the most dangerous power-play shots on the team over this season and last.

Distributorthe main passer, with the most first assists on the team’s power-play goals over this season and last.

Net-frontparks in front of the net. At least 40% of his power-play shots come from within 15 feet.

Pointa second defenseman on the unit, alongside the quarterback.

Is he stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

J. Greaves57 starts · 1596 shots faced, this season and last

+19.4 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %

.967 844 shots

Medium-danger save %

.872 517 shots

High-danger save %

.766 235 shots

Shots faced per 60

28.2

Defensive breakdowns per 60

0.34

Quality starts

65%

Night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

Helping, or hung out to dry?

Show the full picture for J. GreavesHide the full picture

• Stopping more than expected
  SieveWall

  +19.4 goals saved above expected in 57 starts

• How busy he is
  QuietUnder siege

  28.2 shots faced per 60

• How dangerous the shots are
  ShelteredExposed

  the average shot he faces has a 6.8% chance of going in

• Breakdowns in front of him
  RareConstant

  0.34 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60

• Waiting between shots
  Steady workLong waits

  a typical wait of 71 seconds between shots; 22% come after three quiet minutes

• Night-to-night steadiness
  StreakySteady

  a quality start 65% of the time

Really bad starts

14%

Overall save %

.907

J. Greaves2 starts · 57 shots faced, this season

−1.2 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %

.964 28 shots

Medium-danger save %

.762 21 shots

High-danger save %

.875 8 shots

Shots faced per 60

28.5

Defensive breakdowns per 60

0

Quality starts

0%

Night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

Helping, or hung out to dry?

Show the full picture for J. GreavesHide the full picture

• Stopping more than expected
  SieveWall

  −1.2 goals saved above expected in 2 starts

• How busy he is
  QuietUnder siege

  28.5 shots faced per 60

• How dangerous the shots are
  ShelteredExposed

  the average shot he faces has a 6.6% chance of going in

• Breakdowns in front of him
  RareConstant

  0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60

• Waiting between shots
  Steady workLong waits

  a typical wait of 67 seconds between shots; 21% come after three quiet minutes

• Night-to-night steadiness
  StreakySteady

  a quality start 0% of the time

Really bad starts

0%

Overall save %

.877

C. Talbot28 starts · 819 shots faced, this season and last

−3.8 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %

.976 418 shots

Medium-danger save %

.865 282 shots

High-danger save %

.605 119 shots

Shots faced per 60

27.1

Defensive breakdowns per 60

0.23

Quality starts

54%

Night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

Helping, or hung out to dry?

Show the full picture for C. TalbotHide the full picture

• Stopping more than expected
  SieveWall

  −3.8 goals saved above expected in 28 starts

• How busy he is
  QuietUnder siege

  27.1 shots faced per 60

• How dangerous the shots are
  ShelteredExposed

  the average shot he faces has a 7.2% chance of going in

• Breakdowns in front of him
  RareConstant

  0.23 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60

• Waiting between shots
  Steady workLong waits

  a typical wait of 75 seconds between shots; 23% come after three quiet minutes

• Night-to-night steadiness
  StreakySteady

  a quality start 54% of the time

Really bad starts

29%

Overall save %

.884

C. Talbot1 start · 22 shots faced, this season

+1.1 goals saved above expected too few starts to rate

Low-danger save %

1.000 9 shots

Medium-danger save %

.875 8 shots

High-danger save %

.800 5 shots

Shots faced per 60

20.3

Defensive breakdowns per 60

0

Quality starts

100%

Night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

Helping, or hung out to dry?

Show the full picture for C. TalbotHide the full picture

• Stopping more than expected
  SieveWall

  +1.1 goals saved above expected in 1 starttoo few starts to place him

• How busy he is
  QuietUnder siege

  20.3 shots faced per 60too few starts to place him

• How dangerous the shots are
  ShelteredExposed

  the average shot he faces has a 8.9% chance of going intoo few starts to place him

• Breakdowns in front of him
  RareConstant

  0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60too few starts to place him

• Waiting between shots
  Steady workLong waits

  a typical wait of 73 seconds between shots; 36% come after three quiet minutestoo few starts to place him

• Night-to-night steadiness
  StreakySteady

  a quality start 100% of the timetoo few starts to place him

Really bad starts

0%

Overall save %

.909

Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up a lot of cross-ice passes will look worse here than he really is. Ratings compare him with goalies who have at least 10 starts over two seasons, or 2 this season.

How Columbus’s goals are scored and allowed, against the league average, and how much of any difference luck alone could explain.

Every goal counts once, in the first of these that applies: empty net, power play, shorthanded, goalie pulled, then rebound, turnover, faceoff win, and everyday play. These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last.