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Calgary Flames

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      Style fingerprint

      How Calgary plays, trait by trait, against the rest of the league.

      Calgary FlamesLeague averageLikely range

      Real numbers through Oct 10: 4 games this season, blended with last season. Traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

      Real numbers through Oct 10, from this season’s 4 games only. Expect these to swing a lot this early, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

      Offense

      Defense

      Tempo and edge

      Special teams

      Forecheck pressure and physicality are shown as arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

      Key players

      Who Calgary leans on, and what they do best.

      The 4 forwards and 2 defensemen with the most ice time a game (at least half the games played). Tags show how each is used; rows show his clearest strengths, and a weak spot in grey, as a percentile against his position. Point at anything for details. All Flames players.

      OutNobody reported out.

      Show the full roster · 27 playersHide the full roster

      Forwards

      Defense

      Goalies

      As of Oct. 10. Injury details come from the NHL.com Status Report when it names a player; otherwise we only say what the rosters show.

      Lines

      Who plays together at 5-on-5, and how each group is doing.

      How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

      Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over the team’s last 10 games (4 so far this season), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

      Worth knowing

      • M. Pospisil has started killing penalties: on the ice for 29% of the team’s shorthanded time in 4 games, up from 2% last season.

      Last game

      Against Colorado Avalanche, the team used the same lines and pairs as above.

      Who plays against whom

      Which opposing lines each Calgary group has actually been out against at 5-on-5.

      Show Calgarywith boxes

      Standing out in all games

      • Backlund, Farabee, Sharangovich (L3) have spent 50% of their time against opponents’ second lines. With no line matching it would be about 31%.
      • Strome, Pospisil, Honzek (L2) have spent 41% of their time against opponents’ first lines. With no line matching it would be about 29%.
      • Whitecloud, Bahl (P2) have spent 41% of their time against opponents’ second lines. With no line matching it would be about 30%.

      Forward lines against opposing forward lines

      • L1Frost · Coronato · GridinOpp. L125%Opp. L223%Opp. L332%Opp. L419%
      • L2Strome · Pospisil · HonzekOpp. L141%Opp. L218%Opp. L327%Opp. L414%
      • L3Backlund · Farabee · SharangovichOpp. L125%Opp. L250%Opp. L321%Opp. L44%
      • L4Klapka · Castagna · SunievOpp. L127%Opp. L210%Opp. L310%Opp. L453%

      Defense pairs against opposing forward lines

      • P1Middleton · ParekhOpp. L122%Opp. L224%Opp. L334%Opp. L421%
      • P2Whitecloud · BahlOpp. L121%Opp. L241%Opp. L320%Opp. L417%
      • P3Kuznetsov · NemecOpp. L131%Opp. L222%Opp. L317%Opp. L430%

      Each strip adds to 100%: it shows how one Calgary group’s 5-on-5 time is split across the opponent’s four forward lines, numbered the same way as above. Sized by ice time, a wider box means more time against that line; even columns line the boxes up so you can compare groups straight down. At home the coach changes last and picks these matchups; on the road the other coach does. Faded rows have under ten minutes.

      What “with no line matching” means: if a coach just rolled his lines and took whoever was out there, each of his groups would face the opponent’s first line about as often as that line is on the ice. If opposing first lines play a third of the time against Calgary, every Calgary group would see them for about a third of its shifts. A number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against them on purpose; well below means he is keeping it away.

      Special teams

      Who Calgary sends out with a man up and a man down.

      Each power-play unit is built around its quarterback, the defenseman running it, plus the four players most often out with him over the last 10 games (4 so far). Power-play units’ expected goals per 60 are pulled toward league average while samples are small. Penalty kills are too loose for fixed units (the most common foursome covers only about a tenth of a typical team’s shorthanded time), so penalty killers are grouped by when they go on: the ones who start kills, the second wave who come on after the first change, and spot duty. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

      Power play

      PP182% of the time

      Creates 6.7 expected goals per 60

      • Z. ParekhQuarterback
      • M. CoronatoTrigger
      • M. FrostDistributor
      • M. Gridin
      • J. FarabeeNet-front

      PP218% of the time

      Creates 6.6 expected goals per 60

      • S. NemecQuarterback
      • M. Tsyplakov
      • R. Strome
      • Y. SharangovichTrigger
      • B. Othmann

       

      Where Calgary’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

      Penalty kill

      Kills allow 7.5 expected goals per 60, 18th of 32 (this season and last).

      Kills allow 4.8 expected goals per 60, 5th of 32 this season.

      Starts the kill

      Second wave

      Spot duty

      What the tags mean
      Quarterbackthe defenseman who runs the unit from the blue line.
      Triggerthe unit’s main shooter, with the most dangerous power-play shots on the team over this season and last.
      Distributorthe main passer, with the most first assists on the team’s power-play goals over this season and last.
      Net-frontparks in front of the net. At least 40% of his power-play shots come from within 15 feet.
      Pointa second defenseman on the unit, alongside the quarterback.

      Goalies

      Is he stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

      Show

      D. Wolf54 starts · 1618 shots faced, this season and last

      −3.3 goals saved above expected

      Low-danger save %
      .975 807 shots
      Medium-danger save %
      .849 596 shots
      High-danger save %
      .721 215 shots
      Shots faced per 60
      29.7
      Defensive breakdowns per 60
      0.39
      Quality starts
      54%

      Night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

      −3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

      Helping, or hung out to dry?

      System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesD. WolfD. Cooley
      Show the full picture for D. WolfHide the full picture
      • Stopping more than expected
        SieveWall

        −3.3 goals saved above expected in 54 starts

      • How busy he is
        QuietUnder siege

        29.7 shots faced per 60

      • How dangerous the shots are
        ShelteredExposed

        the average shot he faces has a 6.9% chance of going in

      • Breakdowns in front of him
        RareConstant

        0.39 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60

      • Waiting between shots
        Steady workLong waits

        a typical wait of 69 seconds between shots; 20% come after three quiet minutes

      • Night-to-night steadiness
        StreakySteady

        a quality start 54% of the time

      Really bad starts
      19%
      Overall save %
      .895

      D. Wolf2 starts · 59 shots faced, this season

      −5.2 goals saved above expected

      Low-danger save %
      .958 24 shots
      Medium-danger save %
      .769 26 shots
      High-danger save %
      .444 9 shots
      Shots faced per 60
      29.5
      Defensive breakdowns per 60
      1
      Quality starts
      0%

      Night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

      −3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

      Helping, or hung out to dry?

      System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesD. WolfD. Cooley
      Show the full picture for D. WolfHide the full picture
      • Stopping more than expected
        SieveWall

        −5.2 goals saved above expected in 2 starts

      • How busy he is
        QuietUnder siege

        29.5 shots faced per 60

      • How dangerous the shots are
        ShelteredExposed

        the average shot he faces has a 7.5% chance of going in

      • Breakdowns in front of him
        RareConstant

        1 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60

      • Waiting between shots
        Steady workLong waits

        a typical wait of 66 seconds between shots; 15% come after three quiet minutes

      • Night-to-night steadiness
        StreakySteady

        a quality start 0% of the time

      Really bad starts
      100%
      Overall save %
      .797

      Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up a lot of cross-ice passes will look worse here than he really is. Ratings compare him with goalies who have at least 10 starts over two seasons, or 2 this season.

      Where the goals come from

      How Calgary’s goals are scored and allowed, against the league average, and how much of any difference luck alone could explain.

      Show
      CalgaryLeague averageWhere luck alone could put an average team

      More than luck would explain: more of Calgary’s goals come from shorthanded play; fewer from play with the goalie pulled.

      • Everyday even-strength play57.3%122 of 213
      • Power play17.8%38 of 213
      • Rebound7%15 of 213
      • Empty net6.1%13 of 213
      • Off a turnover3.8%8 of 213
      • Goalie pulled0.9%2 of 213
      • Shorthanded4.7%10 of 213
      • Off a faceoff win2.3%5 of 213

      213 goals this season and last. Each row has its own scale, so a small source is not squeezed against the left edge.

      Every row of Calgary’s goals is within luck’s reach of the league average.

      • Everyday even-strength play66.7%4 of 6
      • Power play33.3%2 of 6
      • Rebound0%0 of 6
      • Empty net0%0 of 6
      • Off a turnover0%0 of 6
      • Goalie pulled0%0 of 6
      • Shorthanded0%0 of 6
      • Off a faceoff win0%0 of 6

      6 goals this season, too few to say much: most of any gap from the league is luck. Each row has its own scale, so a small source is not squeezed against the left edge.

      Every goal counts once, in the first of these that applies: empty net, power play, shorthanded, goalie pulled, then rebound, turnover, faceoff win, and everyday play. These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last.