Detroit Red Wings

How Detroit plays, trait by trait, against the rest of the league.

Real numbers through Oct 10: 4 games this season, blended with last season. Traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

Real numbers through Oct 10, from this season’s 4 games only. Expect these to swing a lot this early, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

Offense

• Shot volume
  SelectiveRelentless

  60.7 shot attempts per 608th of 32

  65.0 shot attempts per 606th of 32

• Shot quality
  HopefulDangerous

  a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot21st of 32

  a 6.8% chance of scoring on the average shot14th of 32

• Second chances
  One-and-doneCrashers

  10.0% of chances come from rebounds25th of 32

  8.1% of chances come from rebounds20th of 32

• Off-turnover offense
  PatientOpportunist

  7.5% of chances come right after a turnover12th of 32

  7.3% of chances come right after a turnover18th of 32

• Shots from defensemen
  Forward-ledActive D

  34.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen16th of 32

  35.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen11th of 32

• Shots from in close
  From distanceIn close

  30.9% of shots come from within 20 feet12th of 32

  37.4% of shots come from within 20 feet2nd of 32

Defense

• Shot suppression
  PorousStingy

  55.7 shot attempts allowed per 6013th of 32

  47.9 shot attempts allowed per 605th of 32

• Quality allowed
  ExposedSheltered

  a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against23rd of 32

  a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against20th of 32

• Breakdowns avoided
  Fire drillComposed

  0.44 defensive breakdowns per 6027th of 32

  0.33 defensive breakdowns per 6013th of 32

• Goaltending
  SieveWall

  +0.13 goals saved above expected per 609th of 32

  −0.52 goals saved above expected per 6025th of 32

Tempo and edge

• Pace
  SlogTrack meet

  81.9 shots per 60, both teams combined14th of 32

  80.2 shots per 60, both teams combined15th of 32

• Forecheck pressure
  PassiveHounding

  forecheck score 109 (100 is league average)8th of 3224.1 forecheck plays recorded per 609th of 32

  forecheck score 129 (100 is league average)4th of 3230.6 forecheck plays recorded per 606th of 32

• Physicality
  FinesseBruising

  hit score 107 (100 is league average)10th of 3227.8 hits recorded per 6013th of 32

  hit score 125 (100 is league average)5th of 3235.8 hits recorded per 605th of 32

• Depth
  Top-heavyDeep

  41.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six23rd of 32

  40.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six29th of 32

Special teams

• Power play
  HarmlessLethal

  8.5 expected goals per 60 on the power play4th of 32

  8.4 expected goals per 60 on the power play7th of 32

• Penalty kill
  LeakyAirtight

  7.9 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded23rd of 32

  8.2 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded23rd of 32

• Power kill
  BunkeredPredatory

  0.8 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded21st of 32

  0.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded25th of 32

• Discipline
  RecklessClean

  0.24 more penalties drawn than taken per 602nd of 32

  0.00 more penalties drawn than taken per 6015th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are shown as arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Who Detroit leans on, and what they do best.

• Lucas Raymond

  #23 · Left wing · 20:17 a game

  4 P in 4 GP (0 G, 4 A)

  
  • Most ice time
  • L1 · Larkin, Arvidsson
  • PP1
  • Kills penalties
  • Tough minutes
  • Creating chancestop 21%
  • Power-play chancesbottom 5%
  • Hardest shotTop 5
  • Hittingbottom 18%

• Andrew Copp

  #18 · Center · 19:56 a game

  1 P in 4 GP (0 G, 1 A)

  
  • 2nd in ice time
  • L3 · Kolesar, Rasmussen
  • PP1
  • Kills penalties
  • Shot blockingtop 22%
  • Finishingbottom 1%

  No clear strengths or weak spots yet.

• Dylan Larkin

  #71 · Center · 19:30 a game

  2 P in 2 GP (1 G, 1 A)

  
  • L1 · Arvidsson, Raymond
  • Tough minutes
  • Tough minutes
  • Power-play chancesTop 5
  • Shooting volumetop 10%
  • Faceoffstop 11%
  • Hittingbottom 6%

  No clear strengths or weak spots yet.

• Alex DeBrincat

  #93 · Right wing · 19:26 a game

  5 P in 4 GP (2 G, 3 A)

  
  • L2 · Finnie, Brandsegg-Nygård
  • PP1
  • Tough minutes
  • Creating chancesTop 5
  • Power-play chancesTop 5
  • Shooting volumeTop 10
  • Shooting volumetop 16%
  • Distance skatedtop 11%

• Moritz Seider

  #53 · Defenseman · 24:20 a game

  2 P in 4 GP (0 G, 2 A)

  
  • Most ice time
  • P1 · Johansson
  • PP1
  • Kills penalties
  • Tough minutes
  • Preventing chances1st
  • Creating chancestop 11%
  • Shot blockingtop 20%
  • Power-play chancesTop 10
  • Hardest shotTop 5
  • Top speedtop 13%

• Justin Faulk

  #72 · Defenseman · 19:33 a game

  2 P in 4 GP (1 G, 1 A)

  
  • 2nd in ice time
  • P3 · Wallinder
  • PP2
  • Kills penalties
  • FinishingTop 10
  • Shooting volumetop 19%
  • Creating his own chancestop 19%
  • Creating chancesbottom 5%
  • Shooting volumetop 22%
  • Shot blockingbottom 14%

The 4 forwards and 2 defensemen with the most ice time a game (at least half the games played). Tags show how each is used; rows show his clearest strengths, and a weak spot in grey, as a percentile against his position. Point at anything for details. All Red Wings players.

Who plays together at 5-on-5, and how each group is doing.

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over the team’s last 10 games (4 so far this season), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Last game

Against Seattle Kraken, the team used the same lines and pairs as above.

Which opposing lines each Detroit group has actually been out against at 5-on-5.

Each strip adds to 100%: it shows how one Detroit group’s 5-on-5 time is split across the opponent’s four forward lines, numbered the same way as above. Sized by ice time, a wider box means more time against that line; even columns line the boxes up so you can compare groups straight down. At home the coach changes last and picks these matchups; on the road the other coach does. Faded rows have under ten minutes.

What “with no line matching” means: if a coach just rolled his lines and took whoever was out there, each of his groups would face the opponent’s first line about as often as that line is on the ice. If opposing first lines play a third of the time against Detroit, every Detroit group would see them for about a third of its shifts. A number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against them on purpose; well below means he is keeping it away.

Who Detroit sends out with a man up and a man down.

Each power-play unit is built around its quarterback, the defenseman running it, plus the four players most often out with him over the last 10 games (4 so far). Power-play units’ expected goals per 60 are pulled toward league average while samples are small. Penalty kills are too loose for fixed units (the most common foursome covers only about a tenth of a typical team’s shorthanded time), so penalty killers are grouped by when they go on: the ones who start kills, the second wave who come on after the first change, and spot duty. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

What the tags mean

Quarterbackthe defenseman who runs the unit from the blue line.

Triggerthe unit’s main shooter, with the most dangerous power-play shots on the team over this season and last.

Distributorthe main passer, with the most first assists on the team’s power-play goals over this season and last.

Net-frontparks in front of the net. At least 40% of his power-play shots come from within 15 feet.

Pointa second defenseman on the unit, alongside the quarterback.

Is he stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

J. Gibson59 starts · 1548 shots faced, this season and last

+15.1 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %

.974 768 shots

Medium-danger save %

.870 562 shots

High-danger save %

.711 218 shots

Shots faced per 60

27.4

Defensive breakdowns per 60

0.46

Quality starts

49%

Night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

Helping, or hung out to dry?

Show the full picture for J. GibsonHide the full picture

• Stopping more than expected
  SieveWall

  +15.1 goals saved above expected in 59 starts

• How busy he is
  QuietUnder siege

  27.4 shots faced per 60

• How dangerous the shots are
  ShelteredExposed

  the average shot he faces has a 7.1% chance of going in

• Breakdowns in front of him
  RareConstant

  0.46 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60

• Waiting between shots
  Steady workLong waits

  a typical wait of 76 seconds between shots; 21% come after three quiet minutes

• Night-to-night steadiness
  StreakySteady

  a quality start 49% of the time

Really bad starts

17%

Overall save %

.899

J. Gibson4 starts · 87 shots faced, this season

−2.5 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %

1.000 38 shots

Medium-danger save %

.829 35 shots

High-danger save %

.571 14 shots

Shots faced per 60

24.8

Defensive breakdowns per 60

0.29

Quality starts

25%

Night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

Helping, or hung out to dry?

Show the full picture for J. GibsonHide the full picture

• Stopping more than expected
  SieveWall

  −2.5 goals saved above expected in 4 starts

• How busy he is
  QuietUnder siege

  24.8 shots faced per 60

• How dangerous the shots are
  ShelteredExposed

  the average shot he faces has a 7.4% chance of going in

• Breakdowns in front of him
  RareConstant

  0.29 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60

• Waiting between shots
  Steady workLong waits

  a typical wait of 92 seconds between shots; 26% come after three quiet minutes

• Night-to-night steadiness
  StreakySteady

  a quality start 25% of the time

Really bad starts

25%

Overall save %

.862

D. Tarasov33 starts · 934 shots faced, this season and last

+0.6 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %

.953 473 shots

Medium-danger save %

.889 334 shots

High-danger save %

.693 127 shots

Shots faced per 60

29

Defensive breakdowns per 60

0.43

Quality starts

55%

Night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

Helping, or hung out to dry?

Show the full picture for D. TarasovHide the full picture

• Stopping more than expected
  SieveWall

  +0.6 goals saved above expected in 33 starts

• How busy he is
  QuietUnder siege

  29 shots faced per 60

• How dangerous the shots are
  ShelteredExposed

  the average shot he faces has a 7.0% chance of going in

• Breakdowns in front of him
  RareConstant

  0.43 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60

• Waiting between shots
  Steady workLong waits

  a typical wait of 66 seconds between shots; 19% come after three quiet minutes

• Night-to-night steadiness
  StreakySteady

  a quality start 55% of the time

Really bad starts

18%

Overall save %

.895

D. Tarasov0 starts · 9 shots faced, this season

+0.5 goals saved above expected too few starts to rate

Low-danger save %

1.000 3 shots

Medium-danger save %

.833 6 shots

High-danger save %

– 0 shots

Shots faced per 60

20.8

Defensive breakdowns per 60

0

Quality starts

–

Night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

Helping, or hung out to dry?

Show the full picture for D. TarasovHide the full picture

• Stopping more than expected
  SieveWall

  +0.5 goals saved above expected in 0 startstoo few starts to place him

• How busy he is
  QuietUnder siege

  20.8 shots faced per 60too few starts to place him

• How dangerous the shots are
  ShelteredExposed

  the average shot he faces has a 8.8% chance of going intoo few starts to place him

• Breakdowns in front of him
  RareConstant

  0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60too few starts to place him

• Waiting between shots
  Steady workLong waits

  a typical wait of 84 seconds between shots; 33% come after three quiet minutestoo few starts to place him

• Night-to-night steadiness
  StreakySteady

  a quality start null% of the timetoo few starts to place him

Really bad starts

–

Overall save %

.889

Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up a lot of cross-ice passes will look worse here than he really is. Ratings compare him with goalies who have at least 10 starts over two seasons, or 2 this season.

How Detroit’s goals are scored and allowed, against the league average, and how much of any difference luck alone could explain.

Every goal counts once, in the first of these that applies: empty net, power play, shorthanded, goalie pulled, then rebound, turnover, faceoff win, and everyday play. These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last.