Nashville Predators

How Nashville plays, trait by trait, against the rest of the league.

Real numbers through Oct 10: 4 games this season, blended with last season. Traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

Real numbers through Oct 10, from this season’s 4 games only. Expect these to swing a lot this early, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

Offense

• Shot volume
  SelectiveRelentless

  51.5 shot attempts per 6027th of 32

  46.5 shot attempts per 6028th of 32

• Shot quality
  HopefulDangerous

  a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot29th of 32

  a 5.7% chance of scoring on the average shot25th of 32

• Second chances
  One-and-doneCrashers

  10.4% of chances come from rebounds10th of 32

  13.3% of chances come from rebounds11th of 32

• Off-turnover offense
  PatientOpportunist

  7.3% of chances come right after a turnover18th of 32

  6.7% of chances come right after a turnover21st of 32

• Shots from defensemen
  Forward-ledActive D

  32.3% of shot attempts come from defensemen25th of 32

  31.3% of shot attempts come from defensemen26th of 32

• Shots from in close
  From distanceIn close

  31.3% of shots come from within 20 feet7th of 32

  33.3% of shots come from within 20 feet13th of 32

Defense

• Shot suppression
  PorousStingy

  60.4 shot attempts allowed per 6027th of 32

  66.0 shot attempts allowed per 6030th of 32

• Quality allowed
  ExposedSheltered

  a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against13th of 32

  a 5.7% chance of scoring on the average shot against5th of 32

• Breakdowns avoided
  Fire drillComposed

  0.41 defensive breakdowns per 6016th of 32

  0.31 defensive breakdowns per 6011th of 32

• Goaltending
  SieveWall

  +0.09 goals saved above expected per 6018th of 32

  +0.48 goals saved above expected per 6013th of 32

Tempo and edge

• Pace
  SlogTrack meet

  84.3 shots per 60, both teams combined6th of 32

  85.4 shots per 60, both teams combined7th of 32

• Forecheck pressure
  PassiveHounding

  forecheck score 87 (100 is league average)26th of 3220.6 forecheck plays recorded per 6025th of 32

  forecheck score 75 (100 is league average)28th of 3219.6 forecheck plays recorded per 6027th of 32

• Physicality
  FinesseBruising

  hit score 84 (100 is league average)29th of 3222.8 hits recorded per 6027th of 32

  hit score 74 (100 is league average)28th of 3222.6 hits recorded per 6027th of 32

• Depth
  Top-heavyDeep

  41.5% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six19th of 32

  41.0% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six22nd of 32

Special teams

• Power play
  HarmlessLethal

  7.5 expected goals per 60 on the power play12th of 32

  8.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play9th of 32

• Penalty kill
  LeakyAirtight

  7.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded19th of 32

  8.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded24th of 32

• Power kill
  BunkeredPredatory

  0.7 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded25th of 32

  0.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded32nd of 32

• Discipline
  RecklessClean

  0.02 more penalties drawn than taken per 6015th of 32

  0.25 more penalties drawn than taken per 6014th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are shown as arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Who Nashville leans on, and what they do best.

• Ryan O'Reilly

  #90 · Center · 22:02 a game

  3 P in 4 GP (1 G, 2 A)

  
  • Most ice time
  • L2 · Stamkos, Kerfoot
  • PP1
  • Kills penalties
  • Tough minutes
  • Tough minutes
  • Takeawaystop 5%
  • Setting up goalstop 11%
  • Faceoffstop 15%
  • Shooting volumebottom 3%
  • Shooting volumebottom 12%

• Filip Forsberg

  #9 · Left wing · 20:29 a game

  4 P in 4 GP (0 G, 4 A)

  
  • 2nd in ice time
  • L1 · Hoglander, Wood
  • PP1
  • Tough minutes
  • Takeaways2nd
  • FinishingTop 10
  • Shooting volumetop 6%
  • Shot blockingbottom 20%
  • Takeawaystop 8%
  • Setting up goalstop 20%
  • Hardest shotTop 10

• Steven Stamkos

  #91 · Center · 19:49 a game

  6 P in 4 GP (3 G, 3 A)

  
  • L2 · O'Reilly, Kerfoot
  • PP1
  • Tough minutes
  • Tough minutes
  • FinishingTop 5
  • Faceoffstop 8%
  • Creating his own chancestop 17%
  • Setting up goalsbottom 4%
  • Power-play chancestop 20%
  • Top speedtop 7%
  • Hardest shottop 12%
  • Distance skatedbottom 15%

• Jonathan Marchessault

  #81 · Right wing · 16:16 a game

  0 P in 4 GP (0 G, 0 A)

  
  • L4 · Bourque, Schaefer
  • PP2
  • Power-play chancestop 12%
  • Preventing chancesbottom 1%
  • Creating chancesbottom 24%

• Roman Josi

  #59 · Defenseman · 25:58 a game

  5 P in 4 GP (1 G, 4 A)

  
  • Most ice time
  • P2 · Hague
  • PP1
  • Kills penalties
  • Creating his own chancestop 10%
  • Staying out of the boxtop 18%
  • Drawing penaltiestop 22%
  • Preventing chancesbottom 19%
  • Hardest shottop 7%
  • Creating chancesbottom 23%

• Brady Skjei

  #76 · Defenseman · 20:50 a game

  2 P in 4 GP (0 G, 2 A)

  
  • 2nd in ice time
  • P1 · Perbix
  • Kills penalties
  • Tough minutes
  • Tough minutes
  • Top speedTop 10
  • Finishingbottom 3%
  • Distance skatedbottom 8%

The 4 forwards and 2 defensemen with the most ice time a game (at least half the games played). Tags show how each is used; rows show his clearest strengths, and a weak spot in grey, as a percentile against his position. Point at anything for details. All Predators players.

Who plays together at 5-on-5, and how each group is doing.

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over the team’s last 10 games (4 so far this season), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Last game

Which opposing lines each Nashville group has actually been out against at 5-on-5.

Each strip adds to 100%: it shows how one Nashville group’s 5-on-5 time is split across the opponent’s four forward lines, numbered the same way as above. Sized by ice time, a wider box means more time against that line; even columns line the boxes up so you can compare groups straight down. At home the coach changes last and picks these matchups; on the road the other coach does. Faded rows have under ten minutes.

What “with no line matching” means: if a coach just rolled his lines and took whoever was out there, each of his groups would face the opponent’s first line about as often as that line is on the ice. If opposing first lines play a third of the time against Nashville, every Nashville group would see them for about a third of its shifts. A number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against them on purpose; well below means he is keeping it away.

Who Nashville sends out with a man up and a man down.

Each power-play unit is built around its quarterback, the defenseman running it, plus the four players most often out with him over the last 10 games (4 so far). Power-play units’ expected goals per 60 are pulled toward league average while samples are small. Penalty kills are too loose for fixed units (the most common foursome covers only about a tenth of a typical team’s shorthanded time), so penalty killers are grouped by when they go on: the ones who start kills, the second wave who come on after the first change, and spot duty. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

What the tags mean

Quarterbackthe defenseman who runs the unit from the blue line.

Triggerthe unit’s main shooter, with the most dangerous power-play shots on the team over this season and last.

Distributorthe main passer, with the most first assists on the team’s power-play goals over this season and last.

Net-frontparks in front of the net. At least 40% of his power-play shots come from within 15 feet.

Pointa second defenseman on the unit, alongside the quarterback.

Is he stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

J. Saros60 starts · 1830 shots faced, this season and last

+3.7 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %

.975 914 shots

Medium-danger save %

.877 620 shots

High-danger save %

.686 296 shots

Shots faced per 60

29.9

Defensive breakdowns per 60

0.36

Quality starts

52%

Night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

Helping, or hung out to dry?

Show the full picture for J. SarosHide the full picture

• Stopping more than expected
  SieveWall

  +3.7 goals saved above expected in 60 starts

• How busy he is
  QuietUnder siege

  29.9 shots faced per 60

• How dangerous the shots are
  ShelteredExposed

  the average shot he faces has a 7.3% chance of going in

• Breakdowns in front of him
  RareConstant

  0.36 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60

• Waiting between shots
  Steady workLong waits

  a typical wait of 71 seconds between shots; 19% come after three quiet minutes

• Night-to-night steadiness
  StreakySteady

  a quality start 52% of the time

Really bad starts

8%

Overall save %

.895

J. Saros4 starts · 130 shots faced, this season

+1.9 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %

.986 71 shots

Medium-danger save %

.860 43 shots

High-danger save %

.750 16 shots

Shots faced per 60

32.1

Defensive breakdowns per 60

0.25

Quality starts

75%

Night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

Helping, or hung out to dry?

Show the full picture for J. SarosHide the full picture

• Stopping more than expected
  SieveWall

  +1.9 goals saved above expected in 4 starts

• How busy he is
  QuietUnder siege

  32.1 shots faced per 60

• How dangerous the shots are
  ShelteredExposed

  the average shot he faces has a 6.5% chance of going in

• Breakdowns in front of him
  RareConstant

  0.25 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60

• Waiting between shots
  Steady workLong waits

  a typical wait of 75 seconds between shots; 15% come after three quiet minutes

• Night-to-night steadiness
  StreakySteady

  a quality start 75% of the time

Really bad starts

0%

Overall save %

.915

Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up a lot of cross-ice passes will look worse here than he really is. Ratings compare him with goalies who have at least 10 starts over two seasons, or 2 this season.

How Nashville’s goals are scored and allowed, against the league average, and how much of any difference luck alone could explain.

Every goal counts once, in the first of these that applies: empty net, power play, shorthanded, goalie pulled, then rebound, turnover, faceoff win, and everyday play. These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last.