New York Islanders

How NY Islanders plays, trait by trait, against the rest of the league.

Real numbers through Oct 10: 4 games this season, blended with last season. Traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

Real numbers through Oct 10, from this season’s 4 games only. Expect these to swing a lot this early, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

Offense

• Shot volume
  SelectiveRelentless

  52.2 shot attempts per 6026th of 32

  48.8 shot attempts per 6027th of 32

• Shot quality
  HopefulDangerous

  a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot15th of 32

  a 6.9% chance of scoring on the average shot11th of 32

• Second chances
  One-and-doneCrashers

  10.5% of chances come from rebounds6th of 32

  6.7% of chances come from rebounds24th of 32

• Off-turnover offense
  PatientOpportunist

  6.9% of chances come right after a turnover27th of 32

  12.8% of chances come right after a turnover5th of 32

• Shots from defensemen
  Forward-ledActive D

  37.3% of shot attempts come from defensemen3rd of 32

  34.5% of shot attempts come from defensemen16th of 32

• Shots from in close
  From distanceIn close

  30.7% of shots come from within 20 feet14th of 32

  35.5% of shots come from within 20 feet6th of 32

Defense

• Shot suppression
  PorousStingy

  58.2 shot attempts allowed per 6021st of 32

  57.0 shot attempts allowed per 6021st of 32

• Quality allowed
  ExposedSheltered

  a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot against20th of 32

  a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against9th of 32

• Breakdowns avoided
  Fire drillComposed

  0.48 defensive breakdowns per 6031st of 32

  0.67 defensive breakdowns per 6024th of 32

• Goaltending
  SieveWall

  +0.21 goals saved above expected per 603rd of 32

  +1.51 goals saved above expected per 602nd of 32

Tempo and edge

• Pace
  SlogTrack meet

  81.7 shots per 60, both teams combined16th of 32

  76.9 shots per 60, both teams combined23rd of 32

• Forecheck pressure
  PassiveHounding

  forecheck score 92 (100 is league average)23rd of 3221.3 forecheck plays recorded per 6020th of 32

  forecheck score 86 (100 is league average)21st of 3222.0 forecheck plays recorded per 6021st of 32

• Physicality
  FinesseBruising

  hit score 102 (100 is league average)15th of 3227.0 hits recorded per 6016th of 32

  hit score 106 (100 is league average)12th of 3231.4 hits recorded per 6012th of 32

• Depth
  Top-heavyDeep

  44.5% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six1st of 32

  46.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six1st of 32

Special teams

• Power play
  HarmlessLethal

  6.7 expected goals per 60 on the power play29th of 32

  5.9 expected goals per 60 on the power play24th of 32

• Penalty kill
  LeakyAirtight

  8.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded30th of 32

  8.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded25th of 32

• Power kill
  BunkeredPredatory

  1.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded2nd of 32

  2.5 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded2nd of 32

• Discipline
  RecklessClean

  0.11 more penalties drawn than taken per 608th of 32

  0.25 more penalties taken than drawn per 6019th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are shown as arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Who NY Islanders leans on, and what they do best.

• Bo Horvat

  #14 · Center · 19:11 a game

  5 P in 4 GP (4 G, 1 A)

  
  • Most ice time
  • L1 · Palmieri, Heineman
  • PP1
  • Kills penalties
  • Tough minutes
  • Shooting volumetop 6%
  • Creating his own chancestop 7%
  • Creating chancestop 7%
  • Shot blockingbottom 21%
  • Shorthanded threattop 23%
  • Top speedtop 9%

• Simon Holmstrom

  #92 · Right wing · 16:58 a game

  2 P in 4 GP (1 G, 1 A)

  
  • 2nd in ice time
  • L3 · Pageau, Duclair
  • PP2
  • Kills penalties
  • Shorthanded threattop 5%
  • Staying out of the boxtop 8%
  • Shooting volumebottom 8%
  • Hardest shottop 14%

• Emil Heineman

  #51 · Left wing · 15:50 a game

  2 P in 4 GP (2 G, 0 A)

  
  • L1 · Palmieri, Horvat
  • Kills penalties
  • Tough minutes
  • Staying out of the boxtop 11%
  • Hittingtop 21%
  • Hardest shotTop 5
  • Setting up goalsbottom 1%
  • Takeawaystop 23%

• Kyle Palmieri

  #21 · Center · 15:49 a game

  0 P in 4 GP (0 G, 0 A)

  
  • L1 · Horvat, Heineman
  • PP1
  • Power-play chancestop 11%
  • Finishingbottom 11%
  • Hardest shotTop 10
  • Hittingbottom 21%

• Matthew Schaefer

  #48 · Defenseman · 25:02 a game

  3 P in 4 GP (0 G, 3 A)

  
  • Most ice time
  • P1 · Stanley
  • PP1
  • Tough minutes
  • Takeaways2nd
  • Shorthanded threatTop 10
  • Drawing penaltiesTop 10
  • Hittingbottom 12%
  • Takeawaystop 5%
  • Top speed1st
  • Fast bursts1st
  • Hittingbottom 25%

• Adam Pelech

  #3 · Defenseman · 20:29 a game

  2 P in 4 GP (0 G, 2 A)

  
  • 2nd in ice time
  • P2 · Pulock
  • Kills penalties
  • Preventing chancesTop 10
  • Creating chancestop 8%

  No clear strengths or weak spots yet.

The 4 forwards and 2 defensemen with the most ice time a game (at least half the games played). Tags show how each is used; rows show his clearest strengths, and a weak spot in grey, as a percentile against his position. Point at anything for details. All Islanders players.

Who plays together at 5-on-5, and how each group is doing.

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over the team’s last 10 games (4 so far this season), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Last game

Against Chicago Blackhawks, the team used the same lines and pairs as above.

Which opposing lines each NY Islanders group has actually been out against at 5-on-5.

Each strip adds to 100%: it shows how one NY Islanders group’s 5-on-5 time is split across the opponent’s four forward lines, numbered the same way as above. Sized by ice time, a wider box means more time against that line; even columns line the boxes up so you can compare groups straight down. At home the coach changes last and picks these matchups; on the road the other coach does. Faded rows have under ten minutes.

What “with no line matching” means: if a coach just rolled his lines and took whoever was out there, each of his groups would face the opponent’s first line about as often as that line is on the ice. If opposing first lines play a third of the time against NY Islanders, every NY Islanders group would see them for about a third of its shifts. A number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against them on purpose; well below means he is keeping it away.

Who NY Islanders sends out with a man up and a man down.

Each power-play unit is built around its quarterback, the defenseman running it, plus the four players most often out with him over the last 10 games (4 so far). Power-play units’ expected goals per 60 are pulled toward league average while samples are small. Penalty kills are too loose for fixed units (the most common foursome covers only about a tenth of a typical team’s shorthanded time), so penalty killers are grouped by when they go on: the ones who start kills, the second wave who come on after the first change, and spot duty. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

What the tags mean

Quarterbackthe defenseman who runs the unit from the blue line.

Triggerthe unit’s main shooter, with the most dangerous power-play shots on the team over this season and last.

Distributorthe main passer, with the most first assists on the team’s power-play goals over this season and last.

Net-frontparks in front of the net. At least 40% of his power-play shots come from within 15 feet.

Pointa second defenseman on the unit, alongside the quarterback.

Is he stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

I. Sorokin58 starts · 1616 shots faced, this season and last

+32.5 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %

.975 791 shots

Medium-danger save %

.880 566 shots

High-danger save %

.772 259 shots

Shots faced per 60

28.5

Defensive breakdowns per 60

0.42

Quality starts

55%

Night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

Helping, or hung out to dry?

Show the full picture for I. SorokinHide the full picture

• Stopping more than expected
  SieveWall

  +32.5 goals saved above expected in 58 starts

• How busy he is
  QuietUnder siege

  28.5 shots faced per 60

• How dangerous the shots are
  ShelteredExposed

  the average shot he faces has a 7.3% chance of going in

• Breakdowns in front of him
  RareConstant

  0.42 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60

• Waiting between shots
  Steady workLong waits

  a typical wait of 70 seconds between shots; 21% come after three quiet minutes

• Night-to-night steadiness
  StreakySteady

  a quality start 55% of the time

Really bad starts

16%

Overall save %

.909

I. Sorokin3 starts · 86 shots faced, this season

+5.3 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %

1.000 42 shots

Medium-danger save %

.974 38 shots

High-danger save %

.667 6 shots

Shots faced per 60

29

Defensive breakdowns per 60

0.34

Quality starts

100%

Night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

Helping, or hung out to dry?

Show the full picture for I. SorokinHide the full picture

• Stopping more than expected
  SieveWall

  +5.3 goals saved above expected in 3 starts

• How busy he is
  QuietUnder siege

  29 shots faced per 60

• How dangerous the shots are
  ShelteredExposed

  the average shot he faces has a 6.5% chance of going in

• Breakdowns in front of him
  RareConstant

  0.34 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60

• Waiting between shots
  Steady workLong waits

  a typical wait of 72 seconds between shots; 15% come after three quiet minutes

• Night-to-night steadiness
  StreakySteady

  a quality start 100% of the time

Really bad starts

0%

Overall save %

.965

S. Varlamov1 start · 22 shots faced, this season and last

+0.6 goals saved above expected too few starts to rate

Low-danger save %

.875 8 shots

Medium-danger save %

.800 10 shots

High-danger save %

1.000 4 shots

Shots faced per 60

22.2

Defensive breakdowns per 60

1.01

Quality starts

0%

Night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

Helping, or hung out to dry?

Show the full picture for S. VarlamovHide the full picture

• Stopping more than expected
  SieveWall

  +0.6 goals saved above expected in 1 starttoo few starts to place him

• How busy he is
  QuietUnder siege

  22.2 shots faced per 60too few starts to place him

• How dangerous the shots are
  ShelteredExposed

  the average shot he faces has a 9.6% chance of going intoo few starts to place him

• Breakdowns in front of him
  RareConstant

  1.01 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60too few starts to place him

• Waiting between shots
  Steady workLong waits

  a typical wait of 38 seconds between shots; 27% come after three quiet minutestoo few starts to place him

• Night-to-night steadiness
  StreakySteady

  a quality start 0% of the timetoo few starts to place him

Really bad starts

0%

Overall save %

.864

S. Varlamov1 start · 22 shots faced, this season

+0.6 goals saved above expected too few starts to rate

Low-danger save %

.875 8 shots

Medium-danger save %

.800 10 shots

High-danger save %

1.000 4 shots

Shots faced per 60

22.2

Defensive breakdowns per 60

1.01

Quality starts

0%

Night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

Helping, or hung out to dry?

Show the full picture for S. VarlamovHide the full picture

• Stopping more than expected
  SieveWall

  +0.6 goals saved above expected in 1 starttoo few starts to place him

• How busy he is
  QuietUnder siege

  22.2 shots faced per 60too few starts to place him

• How dangerous the shots are
  ShelteredExposed

  the average shot he faces has a 9.6% chance of going intoo few starts to place him

• Breakdowns in front of him
  RareConstant

  1.01 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60too few starts to place him

• Waiting between shots
  Steady workLong waits

  a typical wait of 38 seconds between shots; 27% come after three quiet minutestoo few starts to place him

• Night-to-night steadiness
  StreakySteady

  a quality start 0% of the timetoo few starts to place him

Really bad starts

0%

Overall save %

.864

Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up a lot of cross-ice passes will look worse here than he really is. Ratings compare him with goalies who have at least 10 starts over two seasons, or 2 this season.

How NY Islanders’s goals are scored and allowed, against the league average, and how much of any difference luck alone could explain.

Every goal counts once, in the first of these that applies: empty net, power play, shorthanded, goalie pulled, then rebound, turnover, faceoff win, and everyday play. These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last.