Ottawa Senators

How Ottawa plays, trait by trait, against the rest of the league.

Real numbers through Oct 10: 4 games this season, blended with last season. Traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

Real numbers through Oct 10, from this season’s 4 games only. Expect these to swing a lot this early, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

Offense

• Shot volume
  SelectiveRelentless

  54.7 shot attempts per 6021st of 32

  51.3 shot attempts per 6025th of 32

• Shot quality
  HopefulDangerous

  a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot7th of 32

  a 6.8% chance of scoring on the average shot13th of 32

• Second chances
  One-and-doneCrashers

  10.5% of chances come from rebounds7th of 32

  13.8% of chances come from rebounds8th of 32

• Off-turnover offense
  PatientOpportunist

  7.6% of chances come right after a turnover9th of 32

  14.3% of chances come right after a turnover3rd of 32

• Shots from defensemen
  Forward-ledActive D

  33.4% of shot attempts come from defensemen23rd of 32

  29.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen29th of 32

• Shots from in close
  From distanceIn close

  30.6% of shots come from within 20 feet16th of 32

  29.5% of shots come from within 20 feet22nd of 32

Defense

• Shot suppression
  PorousStingy

  53.7 shot attempts allowed per 608th of 32

  58.3 shot attempts allowed per 6023rd of 32

• Quality allowed
  ExposedSheltered

  a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against10th of 32

  a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against18th of 32

• Breakdowns avoided
  Fire drillComposed

  0.37 defensive breakdowns per 603rd of 32

  0.34 defensive breakdowns per 6015th of 32

• Goaltending
  SieveWall

  +0.06 goals saved above expected per 6025th of 32

  +1.11 goals saved above expected per 605th of 32

Tempo and edge

• Pace
  SlogTrack meet

  79.2 shots per 60, both teams combined26th of 32

  77.8 shots per 60, both teams combined21st of 32

• Forecheck pressure
  PassiveHounding

  forecheck score 118 (100 is league average)5th of 3227.9 forecheck plays recorded per 603rd of 32

  forecheck score 116 (100 is league average)9th of 3229.9 forecheck plays recorded per 607th of 32

• Physicality
  FinesseBruising

  hit score 118 (100 is league average)3rd of 3232.2 hits recorded per 602nd of 32

  hit score 115 (100 is league average)8th of 3235.6 hits recorded per 606th of 32

• Depth
  Top-heavyDeep

  40.7% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six27th of 32

  39.3% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six31st of 32

Special teams

• Power play
  HarmlessLethal

  7.6 expected goals per 60 on the power play11th of 32

  7.2 expected goals per 60 on the power play14th of 32

• Penalty kill
  LeakyAirtight

  7.0 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded7th of 32

  9.0 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded26th of 32

• Power kill
  BunkeredPredatory

  1.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded7th of 32

  1.6 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded6th of 32

• Discipline
  RecklessClean

  0.17 more penalties drawn than taken per 604th of 32

  0.25 more penalties drawn than taken per 6012th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are shown as arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Who Ottawa leans on, and what they do best.

• Tim Stützle

  20:54 a game

  #18 · Center · 6 P in 4 GP (3 G, 3 A)

  • Most ice time
  • L3 · Foegele, Batherson
  • PP2
  • Kills penalties
  • Shorthanded threatTop 10
  • Drawing penaltiestop 5%
  • Fast burststop 4%
  • Power-play chancesbottom 2%
  • Setting up goalstop 19%
  • Drawing penaltiestop 23%
  • Fast burststop 14%

• Shane Pinto

  19:28 a game

  #12 · Center · 3 P in 4 GP (0 G, 3 A)

  • 2nd in ice time
  • L1 · Giroux, Amadio
  • Kills penalties
  • Tough minutes
  • Preventing chancestop 6%
  • Creating his own chancestop 12%
  • Shooting volumetop 15%
  • Staying out of the boxbottom 12%
  • Hardest shottop 10%
  • Staying out of the boxbottom 20%

• Dylan Cozens

  18:33 a game

  #24 · Center · 0 P in 4 GP (0 G, 0 A)

  • L2 · Zetterlund, Eklund
  • PP1
  • Shooting volumetop 12%
  • Creating his own chancestop 14%
  • Top speedtop 4%
  • Shot blockingbottom 14%
  • Hittingtop 18%

• Michael Amadio

  17:01 a game

  #22 · Right wing · 3 P in 4 GP (2 G, 1 A)

  • L1 · Giroux, Pinto
  • Kills penalties
  • Tough minutes
  • Takeawaystop 4%
  • Preventing chancestop 11%
  • Staying out of the boxtop 12%
  • Shooting volumebottom 19%
  • Distance skatedtop 7%
  • Hardest shottop 13%

• Thomas Chabot

  26:42 a game

  #72 · Defenseman · 2 P in 4 GP (1 G, 1 A)

  • Most ice time
  • P1 · Spence
  • PP1
  • Kills penalties
  • Shot blockingTop 10
  • Shorthanded threattop 6%
  • Distance skatedtop 5%
  • Hittingbottom 24%
  • Drawing penaltiestop 9%
  • Shot blockingtop 13%

• Jordan Spence

  22:38 a game

  #10 · Defenseman · 0 P in 4 GP (0 G, 0 A)

  • 2nd in ice time
  • P1 · Chabot
  • Kills penalties
  • Creating chances1st
  • Preventing chancestop 18%
  • Creating his own chancestop 21%
  • Drawing penaltiesbottom 1%
  • Creating chancestop 16%
  • Preventing chancesbottom 16%

The 4 forwards and 2 defensemen with the most ice time a game (at least half the games played). Tags show how each is used; rows show his clearest strengths, and a weak spot in grey, as a percentile against his position. Point at anything for details. All Senators players.

Who plays together at 5-on-5, and how each group is doing.

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over the team’s last 10 games (4 so far this season), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Last game

Which opposing lines each Ottawa group has actually been out against at 5-on-5.

Each strip adds to 100%: it shows how one Ottawa group’s 5-on-5 time is split across the opponent’s four forward lines, numbered the same way as above. Sized by ice time, a wider box means more time against that line; even columns line the boxes up so you can compare groups straight down. At home the coach changes last and picks these matchups; on the road the other coach does. Faded rows have under ten minutes.

What “with no line matching” means: if a coach just rolled his lines and took whoever was out there, each of his groups would face the opponent’s first line about as often as that line is on the ice. If opposing first lines play a third of the time against Ottawa, every Ottawa group would see them for about a third of its shifts. A number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against them on purpose; well below means he is keeping it away.

Who Ottawa sends out with a man up and a man down.

Each power-play unit is built around its quarterback, the defenseman running it, plus the four players most often out with him over the last 10 games (4 so far). Power-play units’ expected goals per 60 are pulled toward league average while samples are small. Penalty kills are too loose for fixed units (the most common foursome covers only about a tenth of a typical team’s shorthanded time), so penalty killers are grouped by when they go on: the ones who start kills, the second wave who come on after the first change, and spot duty. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

What the tags mean

Quarterbackthe defenseman who runs the unit from the blue line.

Triggerthe unit’s main shooter, with the most dangerous power-play shots on the team over this season and last.

Distributorthe main passer, with the most first assists on the team’s power-play goals over this season and last.

Net-frontparks in front of the net. At least 40% of his power-play shots come from within 15 feet.

Pointa second defenseman on the unit, alongside the quarterback.

Is he stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up a lot of cross-ice passes will look worse here than he really is. Ratings compare him with goalies who have at least 10 starts over two seasons, or 2 this season.

How Ottawa’s goals are scored and allowed, against the league average, and how much of any difference luck alone could explain.

Every goal counts once, in the first of these that applies: empty net, power play, shorthanded, goalie pulled, then rebound, turnover, faceoff win, and everyday play. These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last.