Real data. Everything on this page is computed from actual games.
Last Changeworking title
Numbers from
Hits and takeaways

Washington Capitals

3-1-0

All Capitals players

Results and schedule

Recent results

    Coming up

      Style fingerprint

      How Washington plays, trait by trait, against the rest of the league.

      Washington CapitalsLeague averageLikely range

      Real numbers through Oct 10: 4 games this season, blended with last season. Traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

      Real numbers through Oct 10, from this season’s 4 games only. Expect these to swing a lot this early, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

      Offense

      Defense

      Tempo and edge

      Special teams

      Forecheck pressure and physicality are shown as arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

      Key players

      Who Washington leans on, and what they do best.

      The 4 forwards and 2 defensemen with the most ice time a game (at least half the games played). Tags show how each is used; rows show his clearest strengths, and a weak spot in grey, as a percentile against his position. Point at anything for details. All Capitals players.

      OutMatt Roy day to day

      Show the full roster · 24 playersHide the full roster

      Forwards

      Defense

      Goalies

      Regulars here last season whom no NHL club lists now: Sonny Milano.

      As of Oct. 10. Injury details come from the NHL.com Status Report when it names a player; otherwise we only say what the rosters show.

      Lines

      Who plays together at 5-on-5, and how each group is doing.

      How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

      Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over the team’s last 10 games (4 so far this season), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

      Worth knowing

      • M. Roy is day to day (lower body injury) and has missed the last 2 games. He is a top-four defenseman. T. Liljegren has taken his spot beside J. Chychrun.

      Last game

      Against New York Rangers, the team used the same lines and pairs as above.

      Who plays against whom

      Which opposing lines each Washington group has actually been out against at 5-on-5.

      Show Washingtonwith boxes

      Standing out in all games

      • Wilson, Tuch, Dubois (L1) have spent 41% of their time against opponents’ third lines. With no line matching it would be about 27%.
      • Jenner, Sourdif, Leonard (L3) have spent 28% of their time against opponents’ fourth lines. With no line matching it would be about 17%.
      • Kyrou, Protas, Protas (L2) have spent 39% of their time against opponents’ first lines. With no line matching it would be about 29%.

      Forward lines against opposing forward lines

      • L1Wilson · Tuch · DuboisOpp. L130%Opp. L224%Opp. L341%Opp. L46%
      • L2Kyrou · Protas · ProtasOpp. L139%Opp. L227%Opp. L318%Opp. L416%
      • L3Jenner · Sourdif · LeonardOpp. L129%Opp. L226%Opp. L318%Opp. L428%
      • L4Ovechkin · Strome · BeauvillierOpp. L120%Opp. L234%Opp. L326%Opp. L420%

      Defense pairs against opposing forward lines

      • P1Chychrun · LiljegrenOpp. L127%Opp. L232%Opp. L326%Opp. L415%
      • P2Desharnais · FehérváryOpp. L134%Opp. L225%Opp. L325%Opp. L416%
      • P3McIlrath · HutsonOpp. L113%Opp. L28%Opp. L341%Opp. L438%

      Each strip adds to 100%: it shows how one Washington group’s 5-on-5 time is split across the opponent’s four forward lines, numbered the same way as above. Sized by ice time, a wider box means more time against that line; even columns line the boxes up so you can compare groups straight down. At home the coach changes last and picks these matchups; on the road the other coach does. Faded rows have under ten minutes.

      What “with no line matching” means: if a coach just rolled his lines and took whoever was out there, each of his groups would face the opponent’s first line about as often as that line is on the ice. If opposing first lines play a third of the time against Washington, every Washington group would see them for about a third of its shifts. A number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against them on purpose; well below means he is keeping it away.

      Special teams

      Who Washington sends out with a man up and a man down.

      Each power-play unit is built around its quarterback, the defenseman running it, plus the four players most often out with him over the last 10 games (4 so far). Power-play units’ expected goals per 60 are pulled toward league average while samples are small. Penalty kills are too loose for fixed units (the most common foursome covers only about a tenth of a typical team’s shorthanded time), so penalty killers are grouped by when they go on: the ones who start kills, the second wave who come on after the first change, and spot duty. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

      Power play

      PP166% of the time

      Creates 7.0 expected goals per 60

      • J. ChychrunQuarterback
      • A. OvechkinTrigger
      • P. DuboisNet-front
      • D. StromeDistributor
      • T. WilsonNet-front

      PP234% of the time

      Creates 6.9 expected goals per 60

      • C. HutsonQuarterback
      • A. Tuch
      • J. Kyrou
      • R. LeonardTrigger
      • I. Protas

       

      Where Washington’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

      Penalty kill

      Kills allow 8.2 expected goals per 60, 27th of 32 (this season and last).

      Kills allow 9.5 expected goals per 60, 28th of 32 this season.

      Starts the kill

      Second wave

      What the tags mean
      Quarterbackthe defenseman who runs the unit from the blue line.
      Triggerthe unit’s main shooter, with the most dangerous power-play shots on the team over this season and last.
      Distributorthe main passer, with the most first assists on the team’s power-play goals over this season and last.
      Net-frontparks in front of the net. At least 40% of his power-play shots come from within 15 feet.
      Pointa second defenseman on the unit, alongside the quarterback.

      Goalies

      Is he stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

      Show

      L. Thompson60 starts · 1672 shots faced, this season and last

      +42.1 goals saved above expected

      Low-danger save %
      .976 839 shots
      Medium-danger save %
      .900 569 shots
      High-danger save %
      .739 264 shots
      Shots faced per 60
      27.7
      Defensive breakdowns per 60
      0.55
      Quality starts
      70%

      Night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

      −3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

      Helping, or hung out to dry?

      System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesL. ThompsonC. Lindgren
      Show the full picture for L. ThompsonHide the full picture
      • Stopping more than expected
        SieveWall

        +42.1 goals saved above expected in 60 starts

      • How busy he is
        QuietUnder siege

        27.7 shots faced per 60

      • How dangerous the shots are
        ShelteredExposed

        the average shot he faces has a 7.3% chance of going in

      • Breakdowns in front of him
        RareConstant

        0.55 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60

      • Waiting between shots
        Steady workLong waits

        a typical wait of 73 seconds between shots; 22% come after three quiet minutes

      • Night-to-night steadiness
        StreakySteady

        a quality start 70% of the time

      Really bad starts
      12%
      Overall save %
      .913

      L. Thompson3 starts · 85 shots faced, this season

      +4.7 goals saved above expected

      Low-danger save %
      .971 35 shots
      Medium-danger save %
      .917 36 shots
      High-danger save %
      .857 14 shots
      Shots faced per 60
      28.4
      Defensive breakdowns per 60
      1.33
      Quality starts
      100%

      Night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

      −3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

      Helping, or hung out to dry?

      System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesL. ThompsonC. Lindgren
      Show the full picture for L. ThompsonHide the full picture
      • Stopping more than expected
        SieveWall

        +4.7 goals saved above expected in 3 starts

      • How busy he is
        QuietUnder siege

        28.4 shots faced per 60

      • How dangerous the shots are
        ShelteredExposed

        the average shot he faces has a 8.3% chance of going in

      • Breakdowns in front of him
        RareConstant

        1.33 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60

      • Waiting between shots
        Steady workLong waits

        a typical wait of 70 seconds between shots; 21% come after three quiet minutes

      • Night-to-night steadiness
        StreakySteady

        a quality start 100% of the time

      Really bad starts
      0%
      Overall save %
      .929

      Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up a lot of cross-ice passes will look worse here than he really is. Ratings compare him with goalies who have at least 10 starts over two seasons, or 2 this season.

      Where the goals come from

      How Washington’s goals are scored and allowed, against the league average, and how much of any difference luck alone could explain.

      Show
      WashingtonLeague averageWhere luck alone could put an average team

      More than luck would explain: more of Washington’s goals come from rebounds and empty nets; fewer from the power play.

      • Everyday even-strength play54.5%150 of 275
      • Power play16%44 of 275
      • Rebound11.6%32 of 275
      • Empty net9.5%26 of 275
      • Off a turnover4.4%12 of 275
      • Goalie pulled1.8%5 of 275
      • Shorthanded1.1%3 of 275
      • Off a faceoff win1.1%3 of 275

      275 goals this season and last. Each row has its own scale, so a small source is not squeezed against the left edge.

      More than luck would explain: more of Washington’s goals come from turnovers.

      • Everyday even-strength play42.9%6 of 14
      • Power play14.3%2 of 14
      • Rebound7.1%1 of 14
      • Empty net7.1%1 of 14
      • Off a turnover28.6%4 of 14
      • Goalie pulled0%0 of 14
      • Shorthanded0%0 of 14
      • Off a faceoff win0%0 of 14

      14 goals this season, too few to say much: most of any gap from the league is luck. Each row has its own scale, so a small source is not squeezed against the left edge.

      Every goal counts once, in the first of these that applies: empty net, power play, shorthanded, goalie pulled, then rebound, turnover, faceoff win, and everyday play. These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last.