1. The matchup inside the matchup

   The Penguins are one of the league’s best for chance quality, and the Flyers are one of the league’s best at preventing dangerous shots. Our lean: the Penguins’ chance quality wins out.

   The call The Penguins’ chances are more dangerous than the league average (a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot) against the Flyers.

   Pittsburgh 5th for chance quality (a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot) · Philadelphia 5th for preventing dangerous shots

   Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 0 and 0 games this season

2. Something has to give

   The Flyers are near the top of the league for the power play, and the Penguins are near the top of the league at the penalty kill. Our lean: the Penguins’ kill holds up, even though power plays usually win these.

   The call The Penguins’ kill holds the Flyers’ power play under the league-average 7.6 expected goals per 60.

   Philadelphia 7th for the power play (7.8 expected goals per 60) · Pittsburgh 6th for the penalty kill

   Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 0 and 0 games this season

3. Bruisers against finesse

   The Flyers are near the top of the league for physicality, at the bruising end; the Penguins are one of the league’s worst, at the finesse end. Expect that gap to show.

   The call The Flyers hit more than the Penguins in the close stretches of the game.

   Physicality: Philadelphia 8th, Pittsburgh 31st

   Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 0 and 0 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

How Pittsburgh and Philadelphia play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 0 and 0 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 0 games for Pittsburgh, 0 for Philadelphia. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

• Physicality
  FinesseBruising

  • Pittsburgh: hit score 82 (100 is league average)31st of 32Pittsburgh: 20.2 hits recorded per 6031st of 32

    Pittsburgh: nothing to show yet this season

  • Philadelphia: hit score 111 (100 is league average)8th of 32Philadelphia: 27.1 hits recorded per 608th of 32

    Philadelphia: nothing to show yet this season

• Forecheck pressure
  PassiveHounding

  • Pittsburgh: forecheck score 85 (100 is league average)32nd of 32Pittsburgh: 18.3 forecheck plays recorded per 6031st of 32

    Pittsburgh: nothing to show yet this season

  • Philadelphia: forecheck score 105 (100 is league average)9th of 32Philadelphia: 22.3 forecheck plays recorded per 6013th of 32

    Philadelphia: nothing to show yet this season

• Pace
  SlogTrack meet

  • Pittsburgh: 83.2 shots per 60, both teams combined9th of 32

    Pittsburgh: nothing to show yet this season

  • Philadelphia: 76.1 shots per 60, both teams combined31st of 32

    Philadelphia: nothing to show yet this season

• Shot volume
  SelectiveRelentless

  • Pittsburgh: 58.7 shot attempts per 609th of 32

    Pittsburgh: nothing to show yet this season

  • Philadelphia: 50.3 shot attempts per 6030th of 32

    Philadelphia: nothing to show yet this season

• Quality allowed
  ExposedSheltered

  • Pittsburgh: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against24th of 32

    Pittsburgh: nothing to show yet this season

  • Philadelphia: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against5th of 32

    Philadelphia: nothing to show yet this season

• Off-turnover offense
  PatientOpportunist

  • Pittsburgh: 7.5% of chances come right after a turnover12th of 32

    Pittsburgh: nothing to show yet this season

  • Philadelphia: 8.0% of chances come right after a turnover2nd of 32

    Philadelphia: nothing to show yet this season

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Philadelphia is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (0 and 0 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Who Philadelphia is likely to send against whom

Philadelphia has not played at home yet this season, so there is no matching habit to show.

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

• Sources. Game data from the NHL; expected goals from this site’s own model, cross-checked against MoneyPuck.com.
• Early season. Pittsburgh has played 0 games and Philadelphia 0, so most numbers blend this season with last. The season switch at the top shows this season alone.
• Percentiles and ranks compare a team or player with the rest of the league: 90 means better than 90% of the league at that thing.
• Blind spots. Public game data doesn’t record passes before a shot, where defenders are standing, or rushes up the ice, so the site shows none of those.
• Hits, giveaways and takeaways depend on each arena’s scorer; anything built on them is arena-adjusted. How it works.
• Key players for each side are on the team pages.

Team pages: Pittsburgh Penguins · Philadelphia Flyers