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CAR

Carolina Hurricanes

1-1-1

MTL

Montréal Canadiens

1-0-1

Has last change

Tuesday, October 6

7:00 PM ET · Centre Bell

The short version

Before the game

The Hurricanes’ goalie is in for some dangerous shots

The Hurricanes come in at 1-1-1, the Canadiens at 1-0-1. Carolina has controlled the play far better over recent games and Montréal has home ice. Montréal can pull it off if they get good looks.

The Hurricanes come in at 1-1-1, the Canadiens at 1-0-1. Carolina has controlled the play far better over recent games and Montréal has home ice. Montréal can make it interesting if they get good looks.

The Canadiens make their shots count, and the Hurricanes allow dangerous ones. Expect plenty of hitting.

Who to watch

  • Haunts themAndrei Svechnikov has seven goals in nine games against Montréal since 2023-24.
  • Leads the waySebastian Aho leads the Hurricanes with four points.

  1. The Hurricanes’ goalie is in for some dangerous shots

    The Canadiens’ shots are some of the most dangerous in the league, and the Hurricanes are the league’s worst at preventing dangerous ones. Look for plenty of good chances.

    The call The Canadiens’ average shot has at least their usual 6.9% chance of going in.

    Montréal 1st for shot quality (a 6.9% chance of scoring on the average shot) · Carolina 32nd for preventing dangerous shots

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 2 and 3 games this season

  2. The Canadiens can’t afford to take penalties

    The Canadiens’ penalty kill is near the bottom of the league, and the Hurricanes’ power play is near the top of the league. Discipline matters more than usual for the Canadiens tonight.

    The call The Hurricanes’ power play creates at least their usual 8.1 expected goals per 60.

    Carolina 6th for power play (8.1 expected goals per 60) · Montréal 26th for penalty kill

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 3 and 2 games this season

  3. Two of the league’s heaviest-hitting teams

    The Hurricanes and the Canadiens are both among the league’s heaviest hitters, even after adjusting for each arena’s scorer. Keep your head up.

    The call The two teams’ combined hit score reaches their usual 108.

    Hit score (100 is league average): Carolina 109 (7th), Montréal 107 (10th)

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 3 and 2 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Carolina and Montréal play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Carolina HurricanesMontréal CanadiensLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 3 and 2 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 3 games for Carolina, 2 for Montréal. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Carolina: 64.4 shot attempts per 604th of 32

      Carolina: 57.7 shot attempts per 6013th of 32

    • Montréal: 56.5 shot attempts per 6017th of 32

      Montréal: 59.4 shot attempts per 6010th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Carolina: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot17th of 32

      Carolina: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot16th of 32

    • Montréal: a 6.9% chance of scoring on the average shot1st of 32

      Montréal: a 7.5% chance of scoring on the average shot3rd of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Carolina: 10.3% of chances come from rebounds13th of 32

      Carolina: 26.4% of chances come from rebounds2nd of 32

    • Montréal: 10.1% of chances come from rebounds20th of 32

      Montréal: 16.8% of chances come from rebounds8th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Carolina: 7.7% of chances come right after a turnover6th of 32

      Carolina: 1.2% of chances come right after a turnover30th of 32

    • Montréal: 7.1% of chances come right after a turnover22nd of 32

      Montréal: 17.8% of chances come right after a turnover4th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Carolina: 39.4% of shot attempts come from defensemen1st of 32

      Carolina: 42.0% of shot attempts come from defensemen1st of 32

    • Montréal: 34.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen19th of 32

      Montréal: 36.3% of shot attempts come from defensemen12th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Carolina: 28.7% of shots come from within 20 feet30th of 32

      Carolina: 29.5% of shots come from within 20 feet21st of 32

    • Montréal: 30.3% of shots come from within 20 feet19th of 32

      Montréal: 28.6% of shots come from within 20 feet22nd of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Carolina: 47.0 shot attempts allowed per 601st of 32

      Carolina: 47.0 shot attempts allowed per 6010th of 32

    • Montréal: 55.4 shot attempts allowed per 6013th of 32

      Montréal: 46.7 shot attempts allowed per 609th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Carolina: a 7.1% chance of scoring on the average shot against32nd of 32

      Carolina: an 8.4% chance of scoring on the average shot against32nd of 32

    • Montréal: a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot against28th of 32

      Montréal: a 5.9% chance of scoring on the average shot against9th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Carolina: 0.43 defensive breakdowns per 6022nd of 32

      Carolina: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

    • Montréal: 0.39 defensive breakdowns per 6011th of 32

      Montréal: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Carolina: +0.09 goals saved above expected per 6019th of 32

      Carolina: +0.04 goals saved above expected per 6020th of 32

    • Montréal: +0.14 goals saved above expected per 6011th of 32

      Montréal: −1.27 goals saved above expected per 6028th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Carolina: 82.1 shots per 60, both teams combined18th of 32

      Carolina: 72.5 shots per 60, both teams combined28th of 32

    • Montréal: 79.8 shots per 60, both teams combined24th of 32

      Montréal: 79.0 shots per 60, both teams combined17th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Carolina: forecheck score 123 (100 is league average)2nd of 32Carolina: 28.2 forecheck plays recorded per 602nd of 32

      Carolina: forecheck score 131 (100 is league average)4th of 32Carolina: 33.1 forecheck plays recorded per 604th of 32

    • Montréal: forecheck score 108 (100 is league average)7th of 32Montréal: 25.3 forecheck plays recorded per 607th of 32

      Montréal: forecheck score 119 (100 is league average)7th of 32Montréal: 31.8 forecheck plays recorded per 607th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Carolina: hit score 109 (100 is league average)7th of 32Carolina: 28.6 hits recorded per 608th of 32

      Carolina: hit score 123 (100 is league average)5th of 32Carolina: 36.7 hits recorded per 606th of 32

    • Montréal: hit score 107 (100 is league average)10th of 32Montréal: 29.1 hits recorded per 606th of 32

      Montréal: hit score 107 (100 is league average)12th of 32Montréal: 35.1 hits recorded per 607th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Carolina: 43.9% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six2nd of 32

      Carolina: 44.3% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six7th of 32

    • Montréal: 43.2% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six9th of 32

      Montréal: 43.9% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six9th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Carolina: 8.1 expected goals per 60 on the power play6th of 32

      Carolina: 10.0 expected goals per 60 on the power play6th of 32

    • Montréal: 7.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play19th of 32

      Montréal: 4.4 expected goals per 60 on the power play27th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Carolina: 6.8 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded4th of 32

      Carolina: 3.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded1st of 32

    • Montréal: 8.1 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded26th of 32

      Montréal: 7.7 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded24th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Carolina: 1.4 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded1st of 32

      Carolina: 1.2 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded9th of 32

    • Montréal: 0.9 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded14th of 32

      Montréal: 0.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded30th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Carolina: 0.05 more penalties drawn than taken per 6013th of 32

      Carolina: 0.96 more penalties drawn than taken per 609th of 32

    • Montréal: 0.10 more penalties taken than drawn per 6025th of 32

      Montréal: 1.48 more penalties taken than drawn per 6028th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Montréal is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (3 and 2 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Carolina Hurricanes

Montréal Canadiens

Worth knowing

  • Carolina L. Stankoven has started killing penalties: on the ice for 33% of the team’s shorthanded time in 3 games, up from 1% last season.

Who Montréal is likely to send against whom

Montréal has not played at home yet this season, so there is no matching habit to show.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Carolina power play against Montréal penalty kill

  • Carolina power play

    8.1 expected goals per 60 · 6th of 32

  • Montréal penalty kill

    8.1 expected goals allowed per 60 · 26th of 32

Worth knowing

  • J. Staal is sent out to take power-play faceoffs, then changes. He has taken 70% of the team’s power-play draws but stays on for about 22 seconds at a time, against 63 for the regulars, and is most often replaced by N. Ehlers (10 of 13 changes).

Carolina power play

PP165% of the time

Creates 8.6 expected goals per 60

  • S. GostisbehereQuarterback
  • J. Blakeboth units
  • S. Aho
  • A. SvechnikovTrigger
  • N. Ehlers(J. Staal)both unitsDistributor

PP235% of the time

Creates 7.4 expected goals per 60

  • K. MillerQuarterback
  • J. Blakeboth unitsTrigger
  • N. Ehlers(J. Staal)both unitsDistributor
  • L. StankovenNet-front
  • T. HallNet-front

 

Where Carolina’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Montréal penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

B. Bussi41 starts · 960 shots, this season and last

+2.6 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.976 453 shots
Medium-danger save %
.875 343 shots
High-danger save %
.701 164 shots
Shots faced per 60
23.2
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.24
Quality starts
54%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesB. BussiP. KochetkovJ. Dobes

J. Dobes44 starts · 1245 shots, this season and last

+13.0 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.979 630 shots
Medium-danger save %
.868 403 shots
High-danger save %
.722 212 shots
Shots faced per 60
28.2
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.36
Quality starts
64%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • B. Bussi: +2.6 goals saved above expected in 41 starts
    • J. Dobes: +13.0 goals saved above expected in 44 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • B. Bussi: 23.2 shots faced per 60
    • J. Dobes: 28.2 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • B. Bussi: the average shot he faces has a 7.5% chance of going in
    • J. Dobes: the average shot he faces has a 7.3% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • B. Bussi: 0.24 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Dobes: 0.36 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • B. Bussi: a typical wait of 84 seconds between shots
    • J. Dobes: a typical wait of 67 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • B. Bussi: a quality start 54% of the time
    • J. Dobes: a quality start 64% of the time

B. Bussi, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Dobes, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

B. Bussi2 starts · 47 shots, this season

−0.6 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.909 22 shots
Medium-danger save %
.933 15 shots
High-danger save %
.700 10 shots
Shots faced per 60
22.6
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
50%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesB. BussiP. KochetkovJ. Dobes

J. Dobes2 starts · 58 shots, this season

−2.5 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.962 26 shots
Medium-danger save %
.870 23 shots
High-danger save %
.556 9 shots
Shots faced per 60
29.3
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
50%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • B. Bussi: −0.6 goals saved above expected in 2 starts
    • J. Dobes: −2.5 goals saved above expected in 2 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • B. Bussi: 22.6 shots faced per 60
    • J. Dobes: 29.3 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • B. Bussi: the average shot he faces has a 8.3% chance of going in
    • J. Dobes: the average shot he faces has a 7.1% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • B. Bussi: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Dobes: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • B. Bussi: a typical wait of 104 seconds between shots
    • J. Dobes: a typical wait of 54 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • B. Bussi: a quality start 50% of the time
    • J. Dobes: a quality start 50% of the time

B. Bussi, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Dobes, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
CarolinaMontréalLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play56.2%57.2%
  • Power play20.2%21.1%
  • Rebound6.1%5.3%
  • Empty net6.4%5.3%
  • Off a turnover5.3%4.4%
  • Goalie pulled2.8%3.2%
  • Shorthanded2.8%1.8%
  • Off a faceoff win0.3%1.8%

361 Carolina goals and 341 Montréal goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play40%62.5%
  • Power play60%0%
  • Rebound0%12.5%
  • Empty net0%0%
  • Off a turnover0%0%
  • Goalie pulled0%25%
  • Shorthanded0%0%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

5 Carolina goals and 8 Montréal goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Carolina Hurricanes · Montréal Canadiens