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final

CAR3

Carolina Hurricanes

PHI2

Philadelphia Flyers

Saturday, October 3

Final in overtime · Xfinity Mobile Arena

The short version

What happened

Gostisbehere wins it in overtime

Sebastian Aho scored twice, opening the scoring 10 seconds in. The game was tied twice. Shayne Gostisbehere won it 2:51 into overtime.

The score was fair. Replay this game’s chances a hundred times and the Hurricanes win about four in five. The Flyers tried a line they hadn’t used before: Carl Grundstrom, Owen Tippett and Trevor Zegras.

What it means

  • SlumpThe Flyers haven’t won in three.
  • Keep an eye onWhether the Flyers keep that line together in Tampa Bay on Monday.
  • The previewOne of the preview’s three calls held.

Our pre-game read

The win chance our model worked out before the game, kept off the site until now.

We had this close to even (54% for Carolina), and Carolina came through.

Two even teams on neutral ice50%
Home ice−4 points46%
Recent chances+10 points56%
Who's been playing+6 points62%
Back-to-back−8 points54%
Our chance for Carolina the morning of the game54%
Tonight's lineup−1 points
At puck drop, once the lineups were known52%

Recent chances: how much better each team’s chances have been than their opponents’ lately, with the latest games counting most. Who’s been playing: whether the players who dressed last time were stronger or weaker than the ones behind those recent games, so a star who is out or back counts straight away. Back-to-back: playing for the second night in a row. Tonight’s lineup: any change in who dressed since the last game. Only earlier games went into it, and the preview hinted at it in words without showing the number.

We had this close to even (46% for Philadelphia), and it went Carolina’s way.

Two even teams on neutral ice50%
Home ice+4 points54%
Recent chances−10 points44%
Who's been playing−6 points38%
Back-to-back+8 points46%
Our chance for Philadelphia the morning of the game46%
Tonight's lineup+1 points
At puck drop, once the lineups were known48%

Recent chances: how much better each team’s chances have been than their opponents’ lately, with the latest games counting most. Who’s been playing: whether the players who dressed last time were stronger or weaker than the ones behind those recent games, so a star who is out or back counts straight away. Back-to-back: playing for the second night in a row. Tonight’s lineup: any change in who dressed since the last game. Only earlier games went into it, and the preview hinted at it in words without showing the number.

What the preview said, and what happened

Of the 3 calls the preview made, 1 held up, 0 partly did, and 2 didn’t happen.

  1. Before the game

    The Flyers feed on mistakes, and the Hurricanes make them

    The Hurricanes give up more dangerous chances after losing the puck than most, and the Flyers pounce.

    The call The Flyers get at least their usual 7.9% of their 5-on-5 chances right after winning the puck.

    Philadelphia 2nd for chances off turnovers (7.9% of their chances come right after winning the puck) · Carolina 25th for avoiding breakdowns

    Didn’t happen

    0.0% of Philadelphia’s 5-on-5 chances came right after winning the puck, against their usual 7.9%.

    7.9%
    Coming in
    0.0%
    In this game
    7.2%
    League average

  2. Before the game

    Expect the Hurricanes to fire from everywhere

    The Hurricanes shoot a lot, and the Flyers are near the bottom of the league at keeping shots down. Look for a big shot total.

    The call The Hurricanes take at least their usual 61.0 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5.

    Carolina 6th for shot volume (61.0 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5) · Philadelphia 27th for shot suppression

    Held up

    Carolina took 80.2 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5 (adjusted for score and venue), against their usual 61.0.

    61.0 per 60
    Coming in
    80.2 per 60
    In this game
    56.5 per 60
    League average

  3. Before the game

    Two of the league’s heaviest-hitting teams

    The Hurricanes and the Flyers are both among the league’s heaviest hitters, even after adjusting for each arena’s scorer. Keep your head up.

    The call The two teams’ combined hit score reaches their usual 119.

    Hit score (100 is league average): Carolina 128 (2nd), Philadelphia 110 (7th)

    Didn’t happen

    The two teams’ combined hit score was 98, against their usual 119 (100 is league average, after adjusting for the arena’s scorer).

    hit score 119
    Coming in
    hit score 98
    In this game
    hit score 100
    League average

Each call is checked by a rule set before the game. Held up: the team reached their usual level. Partly: they fell short of their usual level but still beat the league average. When a call says one team will come out ahead, held up means they won by at least half their usual gap, and partly means they won by less. One game is a small sample, so a miss doesn’t mean the preview was wrong about the team.

Read the full preview as it stood at puck drop.

This season so far: 94 held up, 12 partly, 64 didn’t happen, out of 170 graded calls. See the track record.

Run it back

We replayed this game’s chances 100 times. Here is how often each team came out ahead.

Carolina earned this one

Played out 100 times with these chances, Carolina wins 82.

82%
Carolina: 76 wins, plus half of the 12 ties
18%
Philadelphia: 12 wins, plus half of the 12 ties

Carolina had 54 chances worth 4.3 expected goals. Philadelphia had 25 chances worth 2.3 expected goals.

How it works: every shot in regulation that was on target or missed the net goes in as often as our expected-goals model says it should, and the game is played out 100 times that way. A rebound scramble counts as one chance, and empty-net shots are left out. A replay tied after regulation counts as half a win each, since overtime and shootouts are close to coin flips.

It doesn’t know about goalies, finishing skill or passes before a shot. It also favours the team that was chasing, because a team with a lead tends to sit back. Over the last three seasons, teams it gave 80% or more won about two games in three.

What the preview didn’t see coming

The parts of this game furthest from how these teams usually play, biggest first.

Broke the pattern: a team did the opposite of their usual habit. Further than usual: a usual habit, taken much further. Closer than usual: a usual strength or weakness that mostly disappeared. Out of character: a usually average team, far from average. Each is measured against the teams’ numbers before the game.

The numbers

How the game went, beyond the score.

CarolinaPhiladelphia
Goals32
Shots on goal4018
Expected goals4.72.8
Shot attempts at 5-on-56431
Power plays2 of 40 of 4

Swing

How far each player swung tonight’s result, for his team or against it.

The biggest swings: S. Aho +1.4, W. Carrier +1.3 and J. Slavin +1.3.

Showhighlighting

The number is roughly in goals: what he added to his team tonight, or cost it. Tap a player to see where it came from. The label beside it is his report card from “Did they do their job?” below; L1 to L4 and P1 to P3 are tonight’s lines and pairs.

How Swing is worked outHide how Swing is worked out

Scoresheet: each goal is shared 40% to the scorer, 35% to the first assist and 25% to the second, plus a quarter of the expected goals of his own shots. A penalty drawn adds 0.16 and one taken costs 0.16, what a power play is worth on average; each faceoff won or lost moves it by 0.006.

5-on-5 counts most: expected goals for minus against with him on, half compared with league average (adjusted for score and venue) and half compared with his own team when he was on the bench, plus a smaller amount for actual goals. A player on a losing team can score well if his line held its own. Special teams: power-play and penalty-kill time compared with a league-average unit.

Company kept (counted inside 5-on-5): from every player’s 5-on-5 impact over the two seasons before, a player out with strong linemates against weak opponents gives a little back, and the reverse earns a little. Goalies: goals saved above expected. Empty-net shots and shootouts are left out. One game is a small sample: this says who swung this result, not who is better.

Did they do their job?

What each player is relied on for or better than most at, and whether he delivered.

Show
  • J. SlavinDid his job
    Defense
    24:47
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    +1
    xGF–xGA
    2.2–0.4
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    4
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill8.0typical 5.9
    • ✓Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-51.2typical 2.1
  • S. WalkerMixed night
    Defense
    24:10
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    1.1–1.1
    Shots
    4
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    3
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill6.6typical 6.0
    • ✓Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-56typical 5
    • ✕Hitting Better than mosthits0typical 2
  • K. MillerDid his job
    Defense
    23:17
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    1.2–1.1
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    3
    Blocks
    1
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill9.1typical 6.1
    • ✓Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-53.7typical 2.9
  • J. ChatfieldDid his job
    Defense
    22:50
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    +1
    xGF–xGA
    2.2–0.3
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    1
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill10.7typical 6.1
    • ✓Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-55typical 3
  • S. AhoBig night

    2 goals (one on the power play, one at even strength), 1 assist, 86% of the 5-on-5 chances with him on.

    Center
    20:30
    G
    2
    A
    1
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    1.2–0.2
    Shots
    6
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play12.1typical 7.3
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill8.5typical 5.5
    • ✓Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-55.7typical 3.0
  • J. BlakeDid his job
    Right wing
    18:43
    G
    0
    A
    1
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    1.2–0.8
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    1
    • ✓Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play11.7typical 7.0
    • ✓Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-55.1typical 3.0
    • ≈Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.13typical 0.14
Show 12 more Carolina playersHide the other Carolina players
  • A. SvechnikovBig night

    2 assists, 86% of the 5-on-5 chances with him on.

    Right wing
    17:50
    G
    0
    A
    2
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    1.2–0.2
    Shots
    4
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play12.4typical 7.3
    • ✓Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.78typical 0.12
    • ✓Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-55.7typical 3.0
  • L. StankovenDid his job
    Center
    17:10
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    1.2–0.8
    Shots
    4
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-55.0typical 3.0
    • ✓Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.69typical 0.12
    • ✓Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-56typical 3
  • J. StaalMixed night
    Center
    16:35
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.2–0.3
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill7.7typical 6.6
    • ≈Hitting Better than mosthits1typical 4
    • ≈Faceoffs Better than mostfaceoffs won11 of 21typical 54%
  • S. GostisbehereDid his job

    A power-play goal from a player who scores in about 1 game in 6, so it counts for more.

    Defense
    15:39
    G
    1
    A
    0
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    0.3–0.4
    Shots
    4
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    1
    • ✓Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play12.3typical 7.0
    • ✕Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-51.5typical 2.9
    • ✓Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-53typical 2
  • J. MartinookDid his job
    Left wing
    15:16
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    1.0–0.3
    Shots
    3
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    1
    • ✓Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill0.8typical 6.7
    • ✓Blocking shots Better than mostblocked shots1typical 1
    • ≈Hitting Better than mosthits1typical 2
  • T. HallDid his job
    Left wing
    14:30
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    1.2–0.8
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-55.8typical 2.9
    • ✓Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.15typical 0.11
    • –Power play Relied onToo little time to judge
  • N. EhlersOff night
    Left wing
    13:38
    G
    0
    A
    1
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.3–0.3
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play7.0typical 7.0
    • ✕Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-51.4typical 2.8
    • ✕Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-51typical 3
  • W. CarrierDid his job
    Left wing
    12:49
    G
    0
    A
    1
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    1.9–0.2
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    4
    Blocks
    1
    • ✓Hitting Better than mosthits4typical 3
    • ✓Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-50.9typical 2.0
  • M. JankowskiMixed night
    Left wing
    12:01
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    1.1–0.3
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill10.7typical 6.1
    • ≈Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-52.0typical 2.0
    • ≈Blocking shots Better than mostblocked shots0typical 1
  • E. RobinsonMixed night
    Left wing
    11:44
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    0.3–0.4
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    0
    • ≈Hitting Better than mosthits1typical 2
    • –Kills penalties Relied onToo little time to judge
  • J. KotkaniemiDid his job
    Center
    11:19
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    0.3–0.2
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-51.2typical 2.2
    • ✓Hitting Better than mosthits1typical 1
  • M. ReillyMixed night
    Defense
    10:36
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    0.3–0.3
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    1
    • ✓Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-53typical 2
    • ✕Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-52.0typical 2.8
How the cards are gradedHide how the cards are graded

✓ a typical night for him in the ice time he got (the level he reaches in about half his games). ≈ beat an average player at his position, a typical power play or kill, or his own team with him off the ice. ✕ neither. Power-play and penalty-kill results count half, since five players share them.

Huge night: a hat trick or four or more points. Big night: two or more points, or a goal from a player who scores in fewer than one game in five on top of doing his jobs. Rough night: no points while the other team had 70% or more of the 5-on-5 chances with him on (xGF–xGA). Plus-minus never sets the level. A shorthanded goal counts as two points. Points never fully cover for jobs that went badly: with his jobs off, a huge night reads big and a big night reads mixed.

Judged only from games before this one; 5-on-5 rates adjusted for score and venue. One game is a small sample: even a strong player misses a typical night about half the time. Both teams: 45 ✓, 10 ≈, 29 ✕.

In net

Each goalie’s night: the goals he stopped beyond what the shots were worth, and the dangerous and routine saves.

  • P. KochetkovDid his job
    Goalie
    62:51
    Shots
    18
    Saves
    16
    Sv%
    .889
    xGA
    2.8
    GSAx
    +0.8
    Dangerous
    2/3
    • ✓Saving more than expected goals saved above expected+0.8typical -0.4
    • ✓Dangerous shots saves on shots with a 15%+ chance2 of 3typically saves 2 of 3
    • ✓Routine shots saves on shots under a 15% chance14 of 15typically saves 14 of 15
  • J. WollBig night

    37 saves on 40 shots, +1.7 goals saved above expected.

    Goalie
    62:48
    Shots
    40
    Saves
    37
    Sv%
    .925
    xGA
    4.7
    GSAx
    +1.7
    Dangerous
    3/4
    • ✓Saving more than expected goals saved above expected+1.7typical +0.2
    • ✓Dangerous shots saves on shots with a 15%+ chance3 of 4typically saves 3 of 4
    • ✓Routine shots saves on shots under a 15% chance34 of 36typically saves 34 of 36

Every goalie has the same three jobs, judged against his own earlier starts (✓) and an average goalie (≈). Huge night: a shutout on 25 or more shots, or 3+ goals saved above expected. Big night: any other shutout, or 1.5+. Rough night: 2+ goals worse than expected, or pulled early after three or more.

Empty-net shots are left out. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie beaten by cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really was.

Team pages: Carolina Hurricanes · Philadelphia Flyers