Buffalo Sabres

How Buffalo plays, trait by trait, against the rest of the league.

Real numbers through Oct 10: 4 games this season, blended with last season. Traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

Real numbers through Oct 10, from this season’s 4 games only. Expect these to swing a lot this early, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

Offense

• Shot volume
  SelectiveRelentless

  57.0 shot attempts per 6015th of 32

  57.1 shot attempts per 6012th of 32

• Shot quality
  HopefulDangerous

  a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot13th of 32

  a 7.0% chance of scoring on the average shot9th of 32

• Second chances
  One-and-doneCrashers

  9.9% of chances come from rebounds30th of 32

  7.8% of chances come from rebounds21st of 32

• Off-turnover offense
  PatientOpportunist

  6.7% of chances come right after a turnover30th of 32

  4.0% of chances come right after a turnover28th of 32

• Shots from defensemen
  Forward-ledActive D

  32.5% of shot attempts come from defensemen24th of 32

  29.1% of shot attempts come from defensemen30th of 32

• Shots from in close
  From distanceIn close

  31.0% of shots come from within 20 feet11th of 32

  34.0% of shots come from within 20 feet8th of 32

Defense

• Shot suppression
  PorousStingy

  52.3 shot attempts allowed per 606th of 32

  41.3 shot attempts allowed per 603rd of 32

• Quality allowed
  ExposedSheltered

  a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against8th of 32

  a 6.1% chance of scoring on the average shot against10th of 32

• Breakdowns avoided
  Fire drillComposed

  0.42 defensive breakdowns per 6021st of 32

  0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

• Goaltending
  SieveWall

  +0.09 goals saved above expected per 6019th of 32

  −1.33 goals saved above expected per 6029th of 32

Tempo and edge

• Pace
  SlogTrack meet

  81.5 shots per 60, both teams combined19th of 32

  70.9 shots per 60, both teams combined30th of 32

• Forecheck pressure
  PassiveHounding

  forecheck score 93 (100 is league average)19th of 3220.8 forecheck plays recorded per 6022nd of 32

  forecheck score 88 (100 is league average)20th of 3220.8 forecheck plays recorded per 6024th of 32

• Physicality
  FinesseBruising

  hit score 91 (100 is league average)22nd of 3224.5 hits recorded per 6024th of 32

  hit score 88 (100 is league average)22nd of 3225.7 hits recorded per 6023rd of 32

• Depth
  Top-heavyDeep

  41.3% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six21st of 32

  40.5% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six26th of 32

Special teams

• Power play
  HarmlessLethal

  6.9 expected goals per 60 on the power play28th of 32

  4.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play29th of 32

• Penalty kill
  LeakyAirtight

  7.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded15th of 32

  6.7 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded14th of 32

• Power kill
  BunkeredPredatory

  0.9 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded16th of 32

  1.4 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded7th of 32

• Discipline
  RecklessClean

  0.10 more penalties drawn than taken per 609th of 32

  0.25 more penalties drawn than taken per 6013th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are shown as arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Who Buffalo leans on, and what they do best.

• Jack Quinn

  #22 · Right wing · 19:55 a game

  2 P in 4 GP (2 G, 0 A)

  
  • Most ice time
  • L1 · Ostlund, Benson
  • PP1
  • Kills penalties
  • Shooting volumetop 7%
  • Setting up goalstop 8%
  • Creating his own chancestop 12%
  • Preventing chancesbottom 5%
  • Shooting volumetop 14%
  • Top speedtop 4%

• Tage Thompson

  #72 · Center · 19:44 a game

  4 P in 4 GP (2 G, 2 A)

  
  • 2nd in ice time
  • L2 · Krebs, Kulich
  • PP1
  • Shooting volume1st
  • Creating his own chances1st
  • Finishingtop 15%
  • Faceoffsbottom 23%
  • Shooting volumeTop 5
  • Creating his own chancesTop 10
  • Hardest shottop 13%

• Zach Benson

  #6 · Left wing · 19:16 a game

  1 P in 4 GP (0 G, 1 A)

  
  • L1 · Quinn, Ostlund
  • PP1
  • Kills penalties
  • Setting up goalstop 10%
  • Creating chancestop 12%
  • Finishingbottom 4%

  No clear strengths or weak spots yet.

• Noah Ostlund

  #86 · Center · 17:57 a game

  3 P in 4 GP (1 G, 2 A)

  
  • L1 · Quinn, Benson
  • PP1
  • Preventing chancestop 9%
  • Hittingbottom 1%
  • Shooting volumetop 22%
  • Hittingbottom 10%

• Rasmus Dahlin

  #26 · Defenseman · 26:45 a game

  2 P in 4 GP (1 G, 1 A)

  
  • Most ice time
  • P1 · Samuelsson
  • PP1
  • Creating his own chancesTop 5
  • Setting up goalsTop 10
  • Creating chancestop 7%
  • Distance skatedTop 5

• Owen Power

  #25 · Defenseman · 26:16 a game

  5 P in 4 GP (1 G, 4 A)

  
  • 2nd in ice time
  • P2 · Zellweger
  • PP2
  • Kills penalties
  • Staying out of the boxTop 10
  • Creating his own chancestop 18%
  • Shot blockingbottom 2%
  • Creating chancestop 11%
  • Distance skatedtop 11%
  • Shot blockingbottom 14%

The 4 forwards and 2 defensemen with the most ice time a game (at least half the games played). Tags show how each is used; rows show his clearest strengths, and a weak spot in grey, as a percentile against his position. Point at anything for details. All Sabres players.

Who plays together at 5-on-5, and how each group is doing.

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over the team’s last 10 games (4 so far this season), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Last game

Which opposing lines each Buffalo group has actually been out against at 5-on-5.

Each strip adds to 100%: it shows how one Buffalo group’s 5-on-5 time is split across the opponent’s four forward lines, numbered the same way as above. Sized by ice time, a wider box means more time against that line; even columns line the boxes up so you can compare groups straight down. At home the coach changes last and picks these matchups; on the road the other coach does. Faded rows have under ten minutes.

What “with no line matching” means: if a coach just rolled his lines and took whoever was out there, each of his groups would face the opponent’s first line about as often as that line is on the ice. If opposing first lines play a third of the time against Buffalo, every Buffalo group would see them for about a third of its shifts. A number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against them on purpose; well below means he is keeping it away.

Who Buffalo sends out with a man up and a man down.

Each power-play unit is built around its quarterback, the defenseman running it, plus the four players most often out with him over the last 10 games (4 so far). Power-play units’ expected goals per 60 are pulled toward league average while samples are small. Penalty kills are too loose for fixed units (the most common foursome covers only about a tenth of a typical team’s shorthanded time), so penalty killers are grouped by when they go on: the ones who start kills, the second wave who come on after the first change, and spot duty. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

What the tags mean

Quarterbackthe defenseman who runs the unit from the blue line.

Triggerthe unit’s main shooter, with the most dangerous power-play shots on the team over this season and last.

Distributorthe main passer, with the most first assists on the team’s power-play goals over this season and last.

Net-frontparks in front of the net. At least 40% of his power-play shots come from within 15 feet.

Pointa second defenseman on the unit, alongside the quarterback.

Is he stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

U. Luukkonen37 starts · 986 shots faced, this season and last

+5.7 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %

.976 499 shots

Medium-danger save %

.868 348 shots

High-danger save %

.719 139 shots

Shots faced per 60

26.8

Defensive breakdowns per 60

0.38

Quality starts

59%

Night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

Helping, or hung out to dry?

Show the full picture for U. LuukkonenHide the full picture

• Stopping more than expected
  SieveWall

  +5.7 goals saved above expected in 37 starts

• How busy he is
  QuietUnder siege

  26.8 shots faced per 60

• How dangerous the shots are
  ShelteredExposed

  the average shot he faces has a 6.8% chance of going in

• Breakdowns in front of him
  RareConstant

  0.38 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60

• Waiting between shots
  Steady workLong waits

  a typical wait of 75 seconds between shots; 22% come after three quiet minutes

• Night-to-night steadiness
  StreakySteady

  a quality start 59% of the time

Really bad starts

19%

Overall save %

.902

U. Luukkonen3 starts · 55 shots faced, this season

−5.4 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %

.952 21 shots

Medium-danger save %

.714 21 shots

High-danger save %

.615 13 shots

Shots faced per 60

18.4

Defensive breakdowns per 60

0

Quality starts

0%

Night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

Helping, or hung out to dry?

Show the full picture for U. LuukkonenHide the full picture

• Stopping more than expected
  SieveWall

  −5.4 goals saved above expected in 3 starts

• How busy he is
  QuietUnder siege

  18.4 shots faced per 60

• How dangerous the shots are
  ShelteredExposed

  the average shot he faces has a 7.3% chance of going in

• Breakdowns in front of him
  RareConstant

  0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60

• Waiting between shots
  Steady workLong waits

  a typical wait of 118 seconds between shots; 38% come after three quiet minutes

• Night-to-night steadiness
  StreakySteady

  a quality start 0% of the time

Really bad starts

100%

Overall save %

.782

C. Ellis16 starts · 475 shots faced, this season and last

+0.8 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %

.979 241 shots

Medium-danger save %

.878 164 shots

High-danger save %

.700 70 shots

Shots faced per 60

29.2

Defensive breakdowns per 60

0.43

Quality starts

50%

Night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

Helping, or hung out to dry?

Show the full picture for C. EllisHide the full picture

• Stopping more than expected
  SieveWall

  +0.8 goals saved above expected in 16 starts

• How busy he is
  QuietUnder siege

  29.2 shots faced per 60

• How dangerous the shots are
  ShelteredExposed

  the average shot he faces has a 6.7% chance of going in

• Breakdowns in front of him
  RareConstant

  0.43 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60

• Waiting between shots
  Steady workLong waits

  a typical wait of 70 seconds between shots; 23% come after three quiet minutes

• Night-to-night steadiness
  StreakySteady

  a quality start 50% of the time

Really bad starts

6%

Overall save %

.903

C. Ellis1 start · 20 shots faced, this season

0.0 goals saved above expected too few starts to rate

Low-danger save %

1.000 9 shots

Medium-danger save %

.778 9 shots

High-danger save %

1.000 2 shots

Shots faced per 60

18.6

Defensive breakdowns per 60

0

Quality starts

100%

Night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

Helping, or hung out to dry?

Show the full picture for C. EllisHide the full picture

• Stopping more than expected
  SieveWall

  0.0 goals saved above expected in 1 starttoo few starts to place him

• How busy he is
  QuietUnder siege

  18.6 shots faced per 60too few starts to place him

• How dangerous the shots are
  ShelteredExposed

  the average shot he faces has a 6.6% chance of going intoo few starts to place him

• Breakdowns in front of him
  RareConstant

  0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60too few starts to place him

• Waiting between shots
  Steady workLong waits

  a typical wait of 68 seconds between shots; 30% come after three quiet minutestoo few starts to place him

• Night-to-night steadiness
  StreakySteady

  a quality start 100% of the timetoo few starts to place him

Really bad starts

0%

Overall save %

.900

Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up a lot of cross-ice passes will look worse here than he really is. Ratings compare him with goalies who have at least 10 starts over two seasons, or 2 this season.

How Buffalo’s goals are scored and allowed, against the league average, and how much of any difference luck alone could explain.

Every goal counts once, in the first of these that applies: empty net, power play, shorthanded, goalie pulled, then rebound, turnover, faceoff win, and everyday play. These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last.