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Tampa Bay Lightning

3-1-0

All Lightning players

Results and schedule

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      Style fingerprint

      How Tampa Bay plays, trait by trait, against the rest of the league.

      Tampa Bay LightningLeague averageLikely range

      Real numbers through Oct 10: 4 games this season, blended with last season. Traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

      Real numbers through Oct 10, from this season’s 4 games only. Expect these to swing a lot this early, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

      Offense

      Defense

      Tempo and edge

      Special teams

      Forecheck pressure and physicality are shown as arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

      Key players

      Who Tampa Bay leans on, and what they do best.

      The 4 forwards and 2 defensemen with the most ice time a game (at least half the games played). Tags show how each is used; rows show his clearest strengths, and a weak spot in grey, as a percentile against his position. Point at anything for details. All Lightning players.

      OutNobody reported out.

      Show the full roster · 25 playersHide the full roster

      Forwards

      Defense

      Goalies

      As of Oct. 10. Injury details come from the NHL.com Status Report when it names a player; otherwise we only say what the rosters show.

      Lines

      Who plays together at 5-on-5, and how each group is doing.

      How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

      Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over the team’s last 10 games (4 so far this season), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

      Worth knowing

      • J. Carlson is no longer killing penalties: 0% of the team’s shorthanded time in 4 games, down from 47% last season.

      Last game

      Against Minnesota Wild, the team used the same lines and pairs as above.

      Who plays against whom

      Which opposing lines each Tampa Bay group has actually been out against at 5-on-5.

      Show Tampa Baywith boxes

      Standing out in all games

      • Girgensons, Holmberg, Mikheyev (L3) have spent 64% of their time against opponents’ first lines. With no line matching it would be about 34%.
      • Kucherov, Point, Goncalves (L2) have spent 39% of their time against opponents’ third lines. With no line matching it would be about 20%.
      • McDonagh, Cernak (P2) have spent 49% of their time against opponents’ first lines. With no line matching it would be about 33%.

      Forward lines against opposing forward lines

      • L1Guentzel · Cirelli · HagelOpp. L127%Opp. L226%Opp. L316%Opp. L431%
      • L2Kucherov · Point · GoncalvesOpp. L19%Opp. L229%Opp. L339%Opp. L423%
      • L3Girgensons · Holmberg · MikheyevOpp. L164%Opp. L27%Opp. L37%Opp. L421%
      • L4Opp. L1–Opp. L2–Opp. L3–Opp. L4–

      Defense pairs against opposing forward lines

      • P1Carlson · MoserOpp. L119%Opp. L226%Opp. L338%Opp. L417%
      • P2McDonagh · CernakOpp. L149%Opp. L219%Opp. L311%Opp. L421%
      • P3D'Astous · CrozierOpp. L126%Opp. L219%Opp. L327%Opp. L429%

      Each strip adds to 100%: it shows how one Tampa Bay group’s 5-on-5 time is split across the opponent’s four forward lines, numbered the same way as above. Sized by ice time, a wider box means more time against that line; even columns line the boxes up so you can compare groups straight down. At home the coach changes last and picks these matchups; on the road the other coach does. Faded rows have under ten minutes.

      What “with no line matching” means: if a coach just rolled his lines and took whoever was out there, each of his groups would face the opponent’s first line about as often as that line is on the ice. If opposing first lines play a third of the time against Tampa Bay, every Tampa Bay group would see them for about a third of its shifts. A number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against them on purpose; well below means he is keeping it away.

      Special teams

      Who Tampa Bay sends out with a man up and a man down.

      Each power-play unit is built around its quarterback, the defenseman running it, plus the four players most often out with him over the last 10 games (4 so far). Power-play units’ expected goals per 60 are pulled toward league average while samples are small. Penalty kills are too loose for fixed units (the most common foursome covers only about a tenth of a typical team’s shorthanded time), so penalty killers are grouped by when they go on: the ones who start kills, the second wave who come on after the first change, and spot duty. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

      Power play

      PP175% of the time

      Creates 7.0 expected goals per 60

      • J. CarlsonQuarterback
      • N. KucherovDistributor
      • J. Guentzelboth unitsTrigger
      • B. Point
      • B. Hagel

      PP225% of the time

      Creates 6.2 expected goals per 60

      • C. D'AstousQuarterback
      • J. Guentzelboth unitsTrigger
      • C. Geekie
      • P. Holmberg
      • G. Goncalves

       

      Where Tampa Bay’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

      Penalty kill

      Kills allow 7.2 expected goals per 60, 8th of 32 (this season and last).

      Kills allow 6.2 expected goals per 60, 9th of 32 this season.

      Starts the kill

      Second wave

      Spot duty

      What the tags mean
      Quarterbackthe defenseman who runs the unit from the blue line.
      Triggerthe unit’s main shooter, with the most dangerous power-play shots on the team over this season and last.
      Distributorthe main passer, with the most first assists on the team’s power-play goals over this season and last.
      Net-frontparks in front of the net. At least 40% of his power-play shots come from within 15 feet.
      Pointa second defenseman on the unit, alongside the quarterback.

      Goalies

      Is he stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

      Show

      A. Vasilevskiy60 starts · 1545 shots faced, this season and last

      +25.8 goals saved above expected

      Low-danger save %
      .968 775 shots
      Medium-danger save %
      .886 534 shots
      High-danger save %
      .780 236 shots
      Shots faced per 60
      25.7
      Defensive breakdowns per 60
      0.47
      Quality starts
      73%

      Night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

      −3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

      Helping, or hung out to dry?

      System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesA. VasilevskiyD. Hildeby
      Show the full picture for A. VasilevskiyHide the full picture
      • Stopping more than expected
        SieveWall

        +25.8 goals saved above expected in 60 starts

      • How busy he is
        QuietUnder siege

        25.7 shots faced per 60

      • How dangerous the shots are
        ShelteredExposed

        the average shot he faces has a 7.0% chance of going in

      • Breakdowns in front of him
        RareConstant

        0.47 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60

      • Waiting between shots
        Steady workLong waits

        a typical wait of 76 seconds between shots; 23% come after three quiet minutes

      • Night-to-night steadiness
        StreakySteady

        a quality start 73% of the time

      Really bad starts
      10%
      Overall save %
      .911

      A. Vasilevskiy3 starts · 60 shots faced, this season

      +0.7 goals saved above expected

      Low-danger save %
      .933 30 shots
      Medium-danger save %
      .900 20 shots
      High-danger save %
      .800 10 shots
      Shots faced per 60
      20.5
      Defensive breakdowns per 60
      0
      Quality starts
      67%

      Night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

      −3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

      Helping, or hung out to dry?

      System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesA. VasilevskiyD. Hildeby
      Show the full picture for A. VasilevskiyHide the full picture
      • Stopping more than expected
        SieveWall

        +0.7 goals saved above expected in 3 starts

      • How busy he is
        QuietUnder siege

        20.5 shots faced per 60

      • How dangerous the shots are
        ShelteredExposed

        the average shot he faces has a 6.8% chance of going in

      • Breakdowns in front of him
        RareConstant

        0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60

      • Waiting between shots
        Steady workLong waits

        a typical wait of 96 seconds between shots; 33% come after three quiet minutes

      • Night-to-night steadiness
        StreakySteady

        a quality start 67% of the time

      Really bad starts
      33%
      Overall save %
      .900

      Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up a lot of cross-ice passes will look worse here than he really is. Ratings compare him with goalies who have at least 10 starts over two seasons, or 2 this season.

      Where the goals come from

      How Tampa Bay’s goals are scored and allowed, against the league average, and how much of any difference luck alone could explain.

      Show
      Tampa BayLeague averageWhere luck alone could put an average team

      Every row of Tampa Bay’s goals is within luck’s reach of the league average.

      • Everyday even-strength play57.1%178 of 312
      • Power play17.9%56 of 312
      • Rebound7.1%22 of 312
      • Empty net8%25 of 312
      • Off a turnover4.8%15 of 312
      • Goalie pulled1.9%6 of 312
      • Shorthanded1.6%5 of 312
      • Off a faceoff win1.6%5 of 312

      312 goals this season and last. Each row has its own scale, so a small source is not squeezed against the left edge.

      Every row of Tampa Bay’s goals is within luck’s reach of the league average.

      • Everyday even-strength play63.6%7 of 11
      • Power play9.1%1 of 11
      • Rebound0%0 of 11
      • Empty net18.2%2 of 11
      • Off a turnover0%0 of 11
      • Goalie pulled0%0 of 11
      • Shorthanded0%0 of 11
      • Off a faceoff win9.1%1 of 11

      11 goals this season, too few to say much: most of any gap from the league is luck. Each row has its own scale, so a small source is not squeezed against the left edge.

      Every goal counts once, in the first of these that applies: empty net, power play, shorthanded, goalie pulled, then rebound, turnover, faceoff win, and everyday play. These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last.