1. The Rangers can’t afford to take penalties

   The Rangers’ penalty kill is near the bottom of the league, and the Bruins’ power play is near the top of the league. Discipline matters more than usual for the Rangers tonight.

   The call The Bruins’ power play creates at least their usual 8.1 expected goals per 60.

   Boston 6th for power play (8.1 expected goals per 60) · NY Rangers 25th for penalty kill

   Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 0 and 0 games this season

2. Two of the league’s heaviest-hitting teams

   The Rangers and the Bruins are both among the league’s heaviest hitters, even after adjusting for each arena’s scorer. Keep your head up.

   The call The two teams’ combined hit score reaches their usual 117.

   Hit score (100 is league average): NY Rangers 125 (1st), Boston 109 (7th)

   Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 0 and 0 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

How NY Rangers and Boston play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 0 and 0 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 0 games for NY Rangers, 0 for Boston. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

• Depth
  Top-heavyDeep

  • NY Rangers: 40.8% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six24th of 32

    NY Rangers: nothing to show yet this season

  • Boston: 42.8% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six5th of 32

    Boston: nothing to show yet this season

• Shots from defensemen
  Forward-ledActive D

  • NY Rangers: 36.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen7th of 32

    NY Rangers: nothing to show yet this season

  • Boston: 32.9% of shot attempts come from defensemen24th of 32

    Boston: nothing to show yet this season

• Pace
  SlogTrack meet

  • NY Rangers: 79.9 shots per 60, both teams combined26th of 32

    NY Rangers: nothing to show yet this season

  • Boston: 83.3 shots per 60, both teams combined10th of 32

    Boston: nothing to show yet this season

• Shots from in close
  From distanceIn close

  • NY Rangers: 30.7% of shots come from within 20 feet13th of 32

    NY Rangers: nothing to show yet this season

  • Boston: 28.7% of shots come from within 20 feet28th of 32

    Boston: nothing to show yet this season

• Off-turnover offense
  PatientOpportunist

  • NY Rangers: 7.5% of chances come right after a turnover10th of 32

    NY Rangers: nothing to show yet this season

  • Boston: 7.2% of chances come right after a turnover21st of 32

    Boston: nothing to show yet this season

• Second chances
  One-and-doneCrashers

  • NY Rangers: 10.1% of chances come from rebounds21st of 32

    NY Rangers: nothing to show yet this season

  • Boston: 10.4% of chances come from rebounds12th of 32

    Boston: nothing to show yet this season

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Boston is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (0 and 0 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Who Boston is likely to send against whom

Boston has not played at home yet this season, so there is no matching habit to show.

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

• Sources. Game data from the NHL; expected goals from this site’s own model, cross-checked against MoneyPuck.com.
• Early season. NY Rangers has played 0 games and Boston 0, so most numbers blend this season with last. The season switch at the top shows this season alone.
• Percentiles and ranks compare a team or player with the rest of the league: 90 means better than 90% of the league at that thing.
• Blind spots. Public game data doesn’t record passes before a shot, where defenders are standing, or rushes up the ice, so the site shows none of those.
• Hits, giveaways and takeaways depend on each arena’s scorer; anything built on them is arena-adjusted. How it works.
• Key players for each side are on the team pages.

Team pages: New York Rangers · Boston Bruins