1. The Canucks can’t afford to take penalties

   The Canucks’ penalty kill is near the bottom of the league, and the Oilers’ power play is the league’s best. Discipline matters more than usual for the Canucks tonight.

   The call The Oilers’ power play creates at least their usual 9.7 expected goals per 60.

   Edmonton 1st for power play (9.7 expected goals per 60) · Vancouver 26th for penalty kill

   Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 0 and 0 games this season

2. Quality over quantity for the Oilers

   The Oilers make their shots count, and the Canucks are one of the league’s worst at preventing dangerous shots. Expect the Oilers to get some real chances.

   The call The Oilers’ average shot has at least their usual 6.6% chance of going in.

   Edmonton 9th for shot quality (a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot) · Vancouver 31st for preventing dangerous shots

   Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 0 and 0 games this season

3. Active D against forward-led

   The Oilers are one of the league’s best for shots from defensemen, at the active D end; the Canucks are one of the league’s worst, at the forward-led end. Expect that gap to show.

   The call The Oilers’ defensemen take a bigger share of the team’s shot attempts than the Canucks’.

   Shots from defensemen: Edmonton 4th, Vancouver 29th

   Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 0 and 0 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

How Vancouver and Edmonton play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 0 and 0 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 0 games for Vancouver, 0 for Edmonton. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

• Second chances
  One-and-doneCrashers

  • Vancouver: 10.6% of chances come from rebounds2nd of 32

    Vancouver: nothing to show yet this season

  • Edmonton: 9.8% of chances come from rebounds31st of 32

    Edmonton: nothing to show yet this season

• Shots from defensemen
  Forward-ledActive D

  • Vancouver: 32.0% of shot attempts come from defensemen29th of 32

    Vancouver: nothing to show yet this season

  • Edmonton: 37.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen4th of 32

    Edmonton: nothing to show yet this season

• Breakdowns avoided
  Fire drillComposed

  • Vancouver: 0.37 defensive breakdowns per 606th of 32

    Vancouver: nothing to show yet this season

  • Edmonton: 0.45 defensive breakdowns per 6029th of 32

    Edmonton: nothing to show yet this season

• Depth
  Top-heavyDeep

  • Vancouver: 42.7% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six9th of 32

    Vancouver: nothing to show yet this season

  • Edmonton: 39.7% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six31st of 32

    Edmonton: nothing to show yet this season

• Shot suppression
  PorousStingy

  • Vancouver: 61.0 shot attempts allowed per 6030th of 32

    Vancouver: nothing to show yet this season

  • Edmonton: 55.5 shot attempts allowed per 6010th of 32

    Edmonton: nothing to show yet this season

• Shot quality
  HopefulDangerous

  • Vancouver: a 6.1% chance of scoring on the average shot25th of 32

    Vancouver: nothing to show yet this season

  • Edmonton: a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot9th of 32

    Edmonton: nothing to show yet this season

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Edmonton is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (0 and 0 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Who Edmonton is likely to send against whom

Edmonton has not played at home yet this season, so there is no matching habit to show.

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

• Sources. Game data from the NHL; expected goals from this site’s own model, cross-checked against MoneyPuck.com.
• Early season. Vancouver has played 0 games and Edmonton 0, so most numbers blend this season with last. The season switch at the top shows this season alone.
• Percentiles and ranks compare a team or player with the rest of the league: 90 means better than 90% of the league at that thing.
• Blind spots. Public game data doesn’t record passes before a shot, where defenders are standing, or rushes up the ice, so the site shows none of those.
• Hits, giveaways and takeaways depend on each arena’s scorer; anything built on them is arena-adjusted. How it works.
• Key players for each side are on the team pages.

Team pages: Vancouver Canucks · Edmonton Oilers