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final

VAN6

Vancouver Canucks

EDM5

Edmonton Oilers

Tuesday, September 29

Final in overtime · Rogers Place

The short version

What happened

A hat trick for Bouchard

Paul Cotter scored twice, opening the scoring midway through the first. Evan Bouchard scored three. Three times the Oilers answered a Canucks lead. Cotter won it 1:59 into overtime.

The Oilers had the better of the play. Replay the chances a hundred times and the Oilers win about four in five. The Oilers tried a line they hadn’t used before: Kasperi Kapanen, Leon Draisaitl and Vasily Podkolzin, and it had a hand in both of their goals.

What it means

  • Keep an eye onWhether the Oilers keep that line together in Vancouver on Thursday.
  • The previewOne of the preview’s three calls held.

Our pre-game read

The win chance our model worked out before the game, kept off the site until now.

We gave Vancouver a 25% chance, and Vancouver proved us wrong.

Two even teams on neutral ice50%
Home ice−4 points46%
Recent chances−20 points27%
Who's been playing−2 points25%
Back-to-back0 points25%
Our chance for Vancouver the morning of the game25%
Tonight's lineup−3 points
At puck drop, once the lineups were known22%

Recent chances: how much better each team’s chances have been than their opponents’ lately, with the latest games counting most. Who’s been playing: whether the players who dressed last time were stronger or weaker than the ones behind those recent games, so a star who is out or back counts straight away. Back-to-back: playing for the second night in a row. Tonight’s lineup: any change in who dressed since the last game. Only earlier games went into it, and the preview hinted at it in words without showing the number.

We gave Edmonton a 75% chance, but Vancouver had other ideas.

Two even teams on neutral ice50%
Home ice+4 points54%
Recent chances+20 points73%
Who's been playing+2 points75%
Back-to-back0 points75%
Our chance for Edmonton the morning of the game75%
Tonight's lineup+3 points
At puck drop, once the lineups were known78%

Recent chances: how much better each team’s chances have been than their opponents’ lately, with the latest games counting most. Who’s been playing: whether the players who dressed last time were stronger or weaker than the ones behind those recent games, so a star who is out or back counts straight away. Back-to-back: playing for the second night in a row. Tonight’s lineup: any change in who dressed since the last game. Only earlier games went into it, and the preview hinted at it in words without showing the number.

What the preview said, and what happened

Of the 3 calls the preview made, 1 held up, 1 partly did, and 1 didn’t happen.

  1. Before the game

    The Canucks can’t afford to take penalties

    The Canucks’ penalty kill is near the bottom of the league, and the Oilers’ power play is the league’s best. Discipline matters more than usual for the Canucks tonight.

    The call The Oilers’ power play creates at least their usual 9.7 expected goals per 60.

    Edmonton 1st for power play (9.7 expected goals per 60) · Vancouver 26th for penalty kill

    Partly

    Edmonton’s power play created 8.6 expected goals per 60 in 6:30 of 5-on-4 time, against their usual 9.7, and scored 0 goals.

    9.7 per 60
    Coming in
    8.6 per 60
    In this game
    7.6 per 60
    League average

  2. Before the game

    Quality over quantity for the Oilers

    The Oilers make their shots count, and the Canucks are one of the league’s worst at preventing dangerous shots. Expect the Oilers to get some real chances.

    The call The Oilers’ average shot has at least their usual 6.6% chance of going in.

    Edmonton 9th for shot quality (a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot) · Vancouver 31st for preventing dangerous shots

    Didn’t happen

    Edmonton’s average shot had a 6.0% chance of going in, against their usual 6.6%.

    6.6% a shot
    Coming in
    6.0% a shot
    In this game
    6.3% a shot
    League average

  3. Before the game

    Active D against forward-led

    The Oilers are one of the league’s best for shots from defensemen, at the active D end; the Canucks are one of the league’s worst, at the forward-led end. Expect that gap to show.

    The call The Oilers’ defensemen take a bigger share of the team’s shot attempts than the Canucks’.

    Shots from defensemen: Edmonton 4th, Vancouver 29th

    Held up

    On share of 5-on-5 shot attempts taken by defensemen, Edmonton had 34% and Vancouver 29%. Coming in, Edmonton was at 38% and Vancouver at 32%.

    EDM 38% · VAN 32%
    Coming in
    EDM 34% · VAN 29%
    In this game

Each call is checked by a rule set before the game. Held up: the team reached their usual level. Partly: they fell short of their usual level but still beat the league average. When a call says one team will come out ahead, held up means they won by at least half their usual gap, and partly means they won by less. One game is a small sample, so a miss doesn’t mean the preview was wrong about the team.

Read the full preview as it stood at puck drop.

This season so far: 94 held up, 12 partly, 64 didn’t happen, out of 170 graded calls. See the track record.

Run it back

We replayed this game’s chances 100 times. Here is how often each team came out ahead.

Edmonton usually wins this one

Played out 100 times with these chances, Edmonton wins 83. The goals went the other way.

17%
Vancouver: 10 wins, plus half of the 12 ties
83%
Edmonton: 77 wins, plus half of the 12 ties

Vancouver had 27 chances worth 1.6 expected goals. Edmonton had 45 chances worth 3.6 expected goals.

How it works: every shot in regulation that was on target or missed the net goes in as often as our expected-goals model says it should, and the game is played out 100 times that way. A rebound scramble counts as one chance, and empty-net shots are left out. A replay tied after regulation counts as half a win each, since overtime and shootouts are close to coin flips.

It doesn’t know about goalies, finishing skill or passes before a shot. It also favours the team that was chasing, because a team with a lead tends to sit back. Over the last three seasons, teams it gave 80% or more won about two games in three.

What the preview didn’t see coming

The parts of this game furthest from how these teams usually play, biggest first.

Broke the pattern: a team did the opposite of their usual habit. Further than usual: a usual habit, taken much further. Closer than usual: a usual strength or weakness that mostly disappeared. Out of character: a usually average team, far from average. Each is measured against the teams’ numbers before the game.

The numbers

How the game went, beyond the score.

VancouverEdmonton
Goals65
Shots on goal2337
Expected goals2.33.7
Shot attempts at 5-on-53558
Power plays1 of 20 of 4

Swing

How far each player swung tonight’s result, for his team or against it.

The biggest swings: E. Bouchard +2.0, F. Hronek +1.4 and V. Podkolzin +1.3.

Showhighlighting

The number is roughly in goals: what he added to his team tonight, or cost it. Tap a player to see where it came from. The label beside it is his report card from “Did they do their job?” below; L1 to L4 and P1 to P3 are tonight’s lines and pairs.

How Swing is worked outHide how Swing is worked out

Scoresheet: each goal is shared 40% to the scorer, 35% to the first assist and 25% to the second, plus a quarter of the expected goals of his own shots. A penalty drawn adds 0.16 and one taken costs 0.16, what a power play is worth on average; each faceoff won or lost moves it by 0.006.

5-on-5 counts most: expected goals for minus against with him on, half compared with league average (adjusted for score and venue) and half compared with his own team when he was on the bench, plus a smaller amount for actual goals. A player on a losing team can score well if his line held its own. Special teams: power-play and penalty-kill time compared with a league-average unit.

Company kept (counted inside 5-on-5): from every player’s 5-on-5 impact over the two seasons before, a player out with strong linemates against weak opponents gives a little back, and the reverse earns a little. Goalies: goals saved above expected. Empty-net shots and shootouts are left out. One game is a small sample: this says who swung this result, not who is better.

Did they do their job?

What each player is relied on for or better than most at, and whether he delivered.

Show
  • F. HronekBig night

    2 assists.

    Defense
    25:08
    G
    0
    A
    2
    +/−
    +2
    xGF–xGA
    0.8–0.5
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    3
    • ✓Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill5.0typical 6.8
    • ✓Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-52.7typical 2.2
    • –Power play Relied onToo little time to judge
  • J. OleksiakDid his job
    Defense
    23:38
    G
    0
    A
    1
    +/−
    −3
    xGF–xGA
    0.2–1.5
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    3
    Blocks
    2
    • ✓Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill7.2typical 7.8
    • ✓Hitting Better than mosthits3typical 2
  • Z. BuiumOff night
    Defense
    22:46
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    +2
    xGF–xGA
    0.8–0.6
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    1
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play1.6typical 6.3
  • T. WillanderRough night

    No points, and 93% of the 5-on-5 chances went the other way with him on.

    Defense
    20:40
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    0.1–1.5
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    1
    • E. PetterssonDid his job

      A power-play goal from a player who scores in about 1 game in 5, so it counts for more.

      Center
      19:23
      G
      1
      A
      0
      +/−
      0
      xGF–xGA
      0.1–1.1
      Shots
      1
      Hits
      0
      Blocks
      2
      • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play5.6typical 7.5
      • ✓Blocking shots Better than mostblocked shots2typical 1
      • ✕Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-54.4typical 2.9
    • D. O'ConnorOff night
      Left wing
      17:40
      G
      0
      A
      1
      +/−
      −1
      xGF–xGA
      0.6–0.7
      Shots
      3
      Hits
      2
      Blocks
      3
      • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill11.1typical 6.7
    Show 10 more Vancouver playersHide the other Vancouver players
    • L. OhgrenDid his job
      Left wing
      17:29
      G
      0
      A
      1
      +/−
      −1
      xGF–xGA
      0.5–0.3
      Shots
      1
      Hits
      1
      Blocks
      1
      • ✓Blocking shots Better than mostblocked shots1typical 1
    • M. SassonBig night

      A goal, 1 assist.

      Center
      16:37
      G
      1
      A
      1
      +/−
      +1
      xGF–xGA
      0.6–0.6
      Shots
      2
      Hits
      0
      Blocks
      2
      • E. PetterssonDid his job
        Defense
        16:01
        G
        0
        A
        0
        +/−
        0
        xGF–xGA
        0.3–0.3
        Shots
        2
        Hits
        3
        Blocks
        5
        • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill14.8typical 6.8
        • ✓Hitting Better than mosthits3typical 2
      • J. DeBruskOff night
        Left wing
        15:35
        G
        0
        A
        1
        +/−
        +1
        xGF–xGA
        0.1–0.9
        Shots
        0
        Hits
        0
        Blocks
        1
        • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play5.7typical 7.5
      • M. RossiOff night
        Center
        15:01
        G
        1
        A
        0
        +/−
        −1
        xGF–xGA
        0.5–0.6
        Shots
        1
        Hits
        0
        Blocks
        0
        • ✕Faceoffs Relied onfaceoffs won3 of 9typical 49%
        • –Power play Relied onToo little time to judge
      • B. BoeserOff night
        Right wing
        14:51
        G
        0
        A
        1
        +/−
        −1
        xGF–xGA
        0.5–0.3
        Shots
        1
        Hits
        0
        Blocks
        0
        • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play6.1typical 7.3
      • L. SchennOff night
        Defense
        14:25
        G
        0
        A
        0
        +/−
        +1
        xGF–xGA
        0.3–0.2
        Shots
        2
        Hits
        1
        Blocks
        0
        • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill11.1typical 5.7
        • ≈Hitting Better than mosthits1typical 3
      • L. KarlssonOff night
        Center
        13:38
        G
        0
        A
        1
        +/−
        −1
        xGF–xGA
        0.4–0.5
        Shots
        2
        Hits
        0
        Blocks
        0
        • ≈Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-51.7typical 2.2
        • ✕Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.08typical 0.11
      • P. CotterBig night

        2 goals (one shorthanded, one at even strength). A strong game, even though his usual jobs were quieter.

        Left wing
        11:51
        G
        2
        A
        0
        +/−
        +2
        xGF–xGA
        0.1–0.3
        Shots
        3
        Hits
        2
        Blocks
        0
        • ≈Hitting Better than mosthits2typical 3
      • B. GallagherOff night
        Right wing
        10:54
        G
        0
        A
        0
        +/−
        0
        xGF–xGA
        0.3–0.3
        Shots
        1
        Hits
        1
        Blocks
        0
        • ≈Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-51.7typical 2.4
        • ✕Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-51typical 2
        • ✕Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.02typical 0.09
      How the cards are gradedHide how the cards are graded

      ✓ a typical night for him in the ice time he got (the level he reaches in about half his games). ≈ beat an average player at his position, a typical power play or kill, or his own team with him off the ice. ✕ neither. Power-play and penalty-kill results count half, since five players share them.

      Huge night: a hat trick or four or more points. Big night: two or more points, or a goal from a player who scores in fewer than one game in five on top of doing his jobs. Rough night: no points while the other team had 70% or more of the 5-on-5 chances with him on (xGF–xGA). Plus-minus never sets the level. A shorthanded goal counts as two points. Points never fully cover for jobs that went badly: with his jobs off, a huge night reads big and a big night reads mixed.

      Judged only from games before this one; 5-on-5 rates adjusted for score and venue. One game is a small sample: even a strong player misses a typical night about half the time. Both teams: 31 ✓, 6 ≈, 19 ✕.

      Somewhere new

      Things they aren’t known for, far beyond their usual pace.

      A night this big would happen less than one game in fifty at his usual pace, and is at least twice what an average player at his position would manage.

      In net

      Each goalie’s night: the goals he stopped beyond what the shots were worth, and the dangerous and routine saves.

      • K. LankinenDid his job
        Goalie
        61:43
        Shots
        37
        Saves
        32
        Sv%
        .865
        xGA
        3.7
        GSAx
        −1.3
        Dangerous
        8/11
        • ✕Saving more than expected goals saved above expected-1.3typical -0.2
        • ✓Dangerous shots saves on shots with a 15%+ chance8 of 11typically saves 7 of 11
        • ✓Routine shots saves on shots under a 15% chance24 of 26typically saves 24 of 26
      • T. JarryRough night

        17 saves on 23 shots, −3.7 goals saved above expected.

        Goalie
        61:33
        Shots
        23
        Saves
        17
        Sv%
        .739
        xGA
        2.3
        GSAx
        −3.7
        Dangerous
        2/5
        • ✕Saving more than expected goals saved above expected-3.7typical -0.1
        • ✕Dangerous shots saves on shots with a 15%+ chance2 of 5typically saves 4 of 5
        • ✕Routine shots saves on shots under a 15% chance15 of 18typically saves 17 of 18

      Every goalie has the same three jobs, judged against his own earlier starts (✓) and an average goalie (≈). Huge night: a shutout on 25 or more shots, or 3+ goals saved above expected. Big night: any other shutout, or 1.5+. Rough night: 2+ goals worse than expected, or pulled early after three or more.

      Empty-net shots are left out. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie beaten by cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really was.

      Team pages: Vancouver Canucks · Edmonton Oilers