1. The Golden Knights’ power play outclasses the Blackhawks’

   On the power play, Vegas is one of the league’s best and Chicago is one of the league’s worst. That’s about as far apart as two teams get.

   The call The Golden Knights’ power play creates more per 60 than the Blackhawks’.

   Power play: Vegas 2nd, Chicago 31st

   Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 0 and 0 games this season

2. The Golden Knights roll four lines; the Blackhawks lean on their top six

   The Golden Knights are one of the league’s best for depth, at the deep end; the Blackhawks are one of the league’s worst, at the top-heavy end. Expect that gap to show.

   The call The Golden Knights spread their forward ice time deeper down the lineup than the Blackhawks.

   Depth: Vegas 4th, Chicago 28th

   Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 0 and 0 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

How Chicago and Vegas play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 0 and 0 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 0 games for Chicago, 0 for Vegas. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

• Power play
  HarmlessLethal

  • Chicago: 6.4 expected goals per 60 on the power play31st of 32

    Chicago: nothing to show yet this season

  • Vegas: 8.7 expected goals per 60 on the power play2nd of 32

    Vegas: nothing to show yet this season

• Off-turnover offense
  PatientOpportunist

  • Chicago: 7.8% of chances come right after a turnover4th of 32

    Chicago: nothing to show yet this season

  • Vegas: 6.8% of chances come right after a turnover28th of 32

    Vegas: nothing to show yet this season

• Depth
  Top-heavyDeep

  • Chicago: 40.2% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six28th of 32

    Chicago: nothing to show yet this season

  • Vegas: 42.9% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six4th of 32

    Vegas: nothing to show yet this season

• Discipline
  RecklessClean

  • Chicago: 0.06 more penalties taken than drawn per 6025th of 32

    Chicago: nothing to show yet this season

  • Vegas: 0.22 more penalties drawn than taken per 603rd of 32

    Vegas: nothing to show yet this season

• Shot suppression
  PorousStingy

  • Chicago: 59.8 shot attempts allowed per 6027th of 32

    Chicago: nothing to show yet this season

  • Vegas: 53.7 shot attempts allowed per 606th of 32

    Vegas: nothing to show yet this season

• Shots from in close
  From distanceIn close

  • Chicago: 26.8% of shots come from within 20 feet32nd of 32

    Chicago: nothing to show yet this season

  • Vegas: 30.7% of shots come from within 20 feet12th of 32

    Vegas: nothing to show yet this season

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Vegas is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (0 and 0 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Who Vegas is likely to send against whom

Vegas has not played at home yet this season, so there is no matching habit to show.

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

• Sources. Game data from the NHL; expected goals from this site’s own model, cross-checked against MoneyPuck.com.
• Early season. Chicago has played 0 games and Vegas 0, so most numbers blend this season with last. The season switch at the top shows this season alone.
• Percentiles and ranks compare a team or player with the rest of the league: 90 means better than 90% of the league at that thing.
• Blind spots. Public game data doesn’t record passes before a shot, where defenders are standing, or rushes up the ice, so the site shows none of those.
• Hits, giveaways and takeaways depend on each arena’s scorer; anything built on them is arena-adjusted. How it works.
• Key players for each side are on the team pages.

Team pages: Chicago Blackhawks · Vegas Golden Knights