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final

ANA4

Anaheim Ducks

VGK3

Vegas Golden Knights

Friday, October 2

Final · T-Mobile Arena

The short version

What happened

The Ducks beat the Golden Knights

Beckett Sennecke opened the scoring late in the first. Four different Ducks scored. Leo Carlsson scored the winner midway through the second.

The Golden Knights had the better of the play. Replay the chances a hundred times and the Golden Knights win about six in ten.

What it means

  • The previewNone of the preview’s two calls held.
  • RecordThe Ducks are now 1-0-0.

Our pre-game read

The win chance our model worked out before the game, kept off the site until now.

We had this close to even (40% for Anaheim), and Anaheim came through.

Two even teams on neutral ice50%
Home ice−4 points46%
Recent chances−6 points40%
Who's been playing0 points40%
Back-to-back0 points40%
Our chance for Anaheim the morning of the game40%
Tonight's lineup−3 points
At puck drop, once the lineups were known37%

Recent chances: how much better each team’s chances have been than their opponents’ lately, with the latest games counting most. Who’s been playing: whether the players who dressed last time were stronger or weaker than the ones behind those recent games, so a star who is out or back counts straight away. Back-to-back: playing for the second night in a row. Tonight’s lineup: any change in who dressed since the last game. Only earlier games went into it, and the preview hinted at it in words without showing the number.

We had this close to even (60% for Vegas), and it went Anaheim’s way.

Two even teams on neutral ice50%
Home ice+4 points54%
Recent chances+6 points60%
Who's been playing0 points60%
Back-to-back0 points60%
Our chance for Vegas the morning of the game60%
Tonight's lineup+3 points
At puck drop, once the lineups were known63%

Recent chances: how much better each team’s chances have been than their opponents’ lately, with the latest games counting most. Who’s been playing: whether the players who dressed last time were stronger or weaker than the ones behind those recent games, so a star who is out or back counts straight away. Back-to-back: playing for the second night in a row. Tonight’s lineup: any change in who dressed since the last game. Only earlier games went into it, and the preview hinted at it in words without showing the number.

What the preview said, and what happened

Of the 2 calls the preview made, 0 held up, 0 partly did, and 2 didn’t happen.

  1. Before the game

    Strength against strength

    The Ducks are one of the league’s best for shot volume, and the Golden Knights are one of the league’s best at keeping shots away. We’ll side with the Ducks.

    The call The Ducks take more than the league-average 56.7 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5 against the Golden Knights.

    Anaheim 4th for shot volume (62.9 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5) · Vegas 5th for keeping shots away

    Didn’t happen

    On 5-on-5 shot attempts, Anaheim had 55.9 per 60. The league average is 56.7 per 60, and they came in at 62.9 per 60.

    62.9 per 60
    Coming in
    55.9 per 60
    In this game
    56.7 per 60
    League average

  2. Before the game

    The Ducks’ goalie is in for some dangerous shots

    The Golden Knights make their shots count, and the Ducks are one of the league’s worst at preventing dangerous shots. Expect the Golden Knights to get some real chances.

    The call The Golden Knights’ average shot has at least their usual 6.5% chance of going in.

    Vegas 9th for shot quality (a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot) · Anaheim 28th for preventing dangerous shots

    Didn’t happen

    Vegas’s average shot had a 6.2% chance of going in, against their usual 6.5%.

    6.5% a shot
    Coming in
    6.2% a shot
    In this game
    6.3% a shot
    League average

Each call is checked by a rule set before the game. Held up: the team reached their usual level. Partly: they fell short of their usual level but still beat the league average. When a call says one team will come out ahead, held up means they won by at least half their usual gap, and partly means they won by less. One game is a small sample, so a miss doesn’t mean the preview was wrong about the team.

Read the full preview as it stood at puck drop.

This season so far: 87 held up, 11 partly, 62 didn’t happen, out of 160 graded calls. See the track record.

Run it back

We replayed this game’s chances 100 times. Here is how often each team came out ahead.

Vegas usually wins this one

Played out 100 times with these chances, Vegas wins 60. The goals went the other way.

40%
Anaheim: 30 wins, plus half of the 18 ties
60%
Vegas: 51 wins, plus half of the 18 ties

Anaheim had 28 chances worth 2.6 expected goals. Vegas had 45 chances worth 3.2 expected goals.

How it works: every shot in regulation that was on target or missed the net goes in as often as our expected-goals model says it should, and the game is played out 100 times that way. A rebound scramble counts as one chance, and empty-net shots are left out. A replay tied after regulation counts as half a win each, since overtime and shootouts are close to coin flips.

It doesn’t know about goalies, finishing skill or passes before a shot. It also favours the team that was chasing, because a team with a lead tends to sit back. Over the last three seasons, teams it gave 80% or more won about two games in three.

What the preview didn’t see coming

The parts of this game furthest from how these teams usually play, biggest first.

Broke the pattern: a team did the opposite of their usual habit. Further than usual: a usual habit, taken much further. Closer than usual: a usual strength or weakness that mostly disappeared. Out of character: a usually average team, far from average. Each is measured against the teams’ numbers before the game.

The numbers

How the game went, beyond the score.

AnaheimVegas
Goals43
Shots on goal2030
Expected goals2.73.2
Shot attempts at 5-on-54154
Power plays0 of 21 of 3

Swing

How far each player swung tonight’s result, for his team or against it.

The biggest swings: L. Carlsson +1.3, T. Luneau +1.3 and T. Hertl +0.9.

Showhighlighting

The number is roughly in goals: what he added to his team tonight, or cost it. Tap a player to see where it came from. The label beside it is his report card from “Did they do their job?” below; L1 to L4 and P1 to P3 are tonight’s lines and pairs.

How Swing is worked outHide how Swing is worked out

Scoresheet: each goal is shared 40% to the scorer, 35% to the first assist and 25% to the second, plus a quarter of the expected goals of his own shots. A penalty drawn adds 0.16 and one taken costs 0.16, what a power play is worth on average; each faceoff won or lost moves it by 0.006.

5-on-5 counts most: expected goals for minus against with him on, half compared with league average (adjusted for score and venue) and half compared with his own team when he was on the bench, plus a smaller amount for actual goals. A player on a losing team can score well if his line held its own. Special teams: power-play and penalty-kill time compared with a league-average unit.

Company kept (counted inside 5-on-5): from every player’s 5-on-5 impact over the two seasons before, a player out with strong linemates against weak opponents gives a little back, and the reverse earns a little. Goalies: goals saved above expected. Empty-net shots and shootouts are left out. One game is a small sample: this says who swung this result, not who is better.

Did they do their job?

What each player is relied on for or better than most at, and whether he delivered.

Show
  • J. LaCombeOff night
    Defense
    29:37
    G
    0
    A
    1
    +/−
    +1
    xGF–xGA
    1.0–1.1
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    2
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play1.7typical 6.7
    • ✓Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill3.9typical 6.7
    • ✕Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-52.6typical 2.7
  • T. LuneauOff night
    Defense
    26:58
    G
    0
    A
    1
    +/−
    +3
    xGF–xGA
    1.7–1.1
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    5
    • ✕Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.04typical 0.06
  • P. MintyukovDid his job
    Defense
    21:10
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    +1
    xGF–xGA
    1.3–0.7
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    2
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill13.3typical 6.9
    • ✓Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.15typical 0.06
    • ✓Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-54.3typical 2.6
  • T. MitchellMixed night
    Defense
    20:38
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    0.6–0.9
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    0
    • ≈Hitting Better than mosthits1typical 2
  • M. GranlundMixed night
    Center
    18:39
    G
    0
    A
    1
    +/−
    +1
    xGF–xGA
    0.1–0.2
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play5.0typical 6.9
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill14.2typical 6.3
    • ✓Faceoffs Relied onfaceoffs won6 of 12typical 50%
  • B. SenneckeOff night
    Right wing
    18:04
    G
    1
    A
    0
    +/−
    +2
    xGF–xGA
    0.6–0.3
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    2
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play5.0typical 6.7
    • ≈Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.13typical 0.16
    • ✕Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-52.5typical 2.8
Show 10 more Anaheim playersHide the other Anaheim players
  • C. GauthierDid his job
    Left wing
    17:51
    G
    0
    A
    1
    +/−
    +1
    xGF–xGA
    1.4–0.6
    Shots
    5
    Hits
    4
    Blocks
    1
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play5.0typical 6.5
    • ✓Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-58typical 5
    • ✓Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.51typical 0.15
  • L. CarlssonBig night

    A goal, 1 assist, 70% of the 5-on-5 chances with him on. A strong game, even though his usual jobs were quieter.

    Center
    17:43
    G
    1
    A
    1
    +/−
    +1
    xGF–xGA
    1.4–0.6
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    1
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play5.1typical 7.1
    • ✓Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.34typical 0.14
    • ✕Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-52typical 3
  • T. WasheMixed night
    Center
    16:03
    G
    0
    A
    1
    +/−
    +1
    xGF–xGA
    0.1–0.4
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    2
    Blocks
    1
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill15.6typical 6.0
    • ≈Faceoffs Better than mostfaceoffs won11 of 21typical 57%
    • ≈Hitting Better than mosthits2typical 3
  • A. KillornBig night

    A goal from a player who scores in about 1 game in 6, on top of doing his usual jobs.

    Left wing
    15:14
    G
    1
    A
    0
    +/−
    +1
    xGF–xGA
    0.4–0.2
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill4.3typical 6.6
    • ✓Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-51.0typical 2.5
  • R. PoehlingMixed night
    Center
    14:03
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    0.9–0.8
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    2
    • ✓Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill0.0typical 7.0
    • ✓Blocking shots Better than mostblocked shots2typical 1
    • ✕Faceoffs Relied onfaceoffs won1 of 9typical 49%
  • A. GreerMixed night
    Left wing
    13:24
    G
    0
    A
    1
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    1.3–0.9
    Shots
    4
    Hits
    2
    Blocks
    2
    • ✕Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-54.0typical 2.2
    • ≈Hitting Better than mosthits2typical 3
    • ✓Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.28typical 0.12
  • N. NesterenkoDid his job
    Center
    11:49
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.6–0.3
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    3
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-52.0typical 2.4
    • ✓Hitting Better than mosthits3typical 2
  • J. MalottBig night

    A goal from a player who scores in about 1 game in 11, on top of doing his usual jobs.

    Left wing
    10:39
    G
    1
    A
    0
    +/−
    +1
    xGF–xGA
    0.1–0.5
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    5
    Blocks
    1
    • ✓Hitting Better than mosthits5typical 3
    • ✓Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-52typical 2
  • F. VatranoOff night
    Right wing
    10:34
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    0.6–0.8
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Hitting Better than mosthits0typical 1
    • ✕Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-51typical 2
  • T. HindsOff night
    Defense
    9:15
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.3–0.3
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    2
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-50typical 2
How the cards are gradedHide how the cards are graded

✓ a typical night for him in the ice time he got (the level he reaches in about half his games). ≈ beat an average player at his position, a typical power play or kill, or his own team with him off the ice. ✕ neither. Power-play and penalty-kill results count half, since five players share them.

Huge night: a hat trick or four or more points. Big night: two or more points, or a goal from a player who scores in fewer than one game in five on top of doing his jobs. Rough night: no points while the other team had 70% or more of the 5-on-5 chances with him on (xGF–xGA). Plus-minus never sets the level. A shorthanded goal counts as two points. Points never fully cover for jobs that went badly: with his jobs off, a huge night reads big and a big night reads mixed.

Judged only from games before this one; 5-on-5 rates adjusted for score and venue. One game is a small sample: even a strong player misses a typical night about half the time. Both teams: 34 ✓, 10 ≈, 35 ✕.

Somewhere new

Things they aren’t known for, far beyond their usual pace.

A night this big would happen less than one game in fifty at his usual pace, and is at least twice what an average player at his position would manage.

In net

Each goalie’s night: the goals he stopped beyond what the shots were worth, and the dangerous and routine saves.

  • L. DostalDid his job
    Goalie
    60:00
    Shots
    30
    Saves
    27
    Sv%
    .900
    xGA
    3.2
    GSAx
    +0.2
    Dangerous
    7/9
    • ✓Saving more than expected goals saved above expected+0.2typical +0.2
    • ✓Dangerous shots saves on shots with a 15%+ chance7 of 9typically saves 7 of 9
    • ✓Routine shots saves on shots under a 15% chance20 of 21typically saves 20 of 21
  • C. HartOff night
    Goalie
    57:40
    Shots
    20
    Saves
    16
    Sv%
    .800
    xGA
    2.7
    GSAx
    −1.3
    Dangerous
    1/2
    • ✕Saving more than expected goals saved above expected-1.3typical -0.0
    • –Dangerous shots Too few shots to judge
    • ✕Routine shots saves on shots under a 15% chance15 of 18typically saves 17 of 18

Every goalie has the same three jobs, judged against his own earlier starts (✓) and an average goalie (≈). Huge night: a shutout on 25 or more shots, or 3+ goals saved above expected. Big night: any other shutout, or 1.5+. Rough night: 2+ goals worse than expected, or pulled early after three or more.

Empty-net shots are left out. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie beaten by cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really was.

Team pages: Anaheim Ducks · Vegas Golden Knights