1. Something has to give

   The Kings are one of the league’s best for shot volume, and the Avalanche are one of the league’s best at keeping shots away. We think the Kings still get theirs.

   The call The Kings take more than the league-average 56.3 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5 against the Avalanche.

   Los Angeles 4th for shot volume (60.8 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5) · Colorado 5th for keeping shots away

   Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 0 and 0 games this season

2. The Avalanche’s defense joins the attack; the Kings’ stays home

   The Avalanche are one of the league’s best for shots from defensemen, at the active D end; the Kings are the league’s worst, at the forward-led end. Expect that gap to show.

   The call The Avalanche’s defensemen take a bigger share of the team’s shot attempts than the Kings’.

   Shots from defensemen: Colorado 2nd, Los Angeles 32nd

   Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 0 and 0 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

How Los Angeles and Colorado play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 0 and 0 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 0 games for Los Angeles, 0 for Colorado. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

• Shots from defensemen
  Forward-ledActive D

  • Los Angeles: 30.1% of shot attempts come from defensemen32nd of 32

    Los Angeles: nothing to show yet this season

  • Colorado: 39.9% of shot attempts come from defensemen2nd of 32

    Colorado: nothing to show yet this season

• Off-turnover offense
  PatientOpportunist

  • Los Angeles: 6.4% of chances come right after a turnover32nd of 32

    Los Angeles: nothing to show yet this season

  • Colorado: 7.6% of chances come right after a turnover7th of 32

    Colorado: nothing to show yet this season

• Second chances
  One-and-doneCrashers

  • Los Angeles: 10.0% of chances come from rebounds28th of 32

    Los Angeles: nothing to show yet this season

  • Colorado: 10.5% of chances come from rebounds5th of 32

    Colorado: nothing to show yet this season

• Shot quality
  HopefulDangerous

  • Los Angeles: a 5.8% chance of scoring on the average shot32nd of 32

    Los Angeles: nothing to show yet this season

  • Colorado: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot15th of 32

    Colorado: nothing to show yet this season

• Goaltending
  SieveWall

  • Los Angeles: +0.08 goals saved above expected per 6020th of 32

    Los Angeles: nothing to show yet this season

  • Colorado: +0.20 goals saved above expected per 604th of 32

    Colorado: nothing to show yet this season

• Pace
  SlogTrack meet

  • Los Angeles: 82.2 shots per 60, both teams combined16th of 32

    Los Angeles: nothing to show yet this season

  • Colorado: 88.3 shots per 60, both teams combined1st of 32

    Colorado: nothing to show yet this season

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Colorado is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (0 and 0 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Who Colorado is likely to send against whom

Colorado has not played at home yet this season, so there is no matching habit to show.

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

• Sources. Game data from the NHL; expected goals from this site’s own model, cross-checked against MoneyPuck.com.
• Early season. Los Angeles has played 0 games and Colorado 0, so most numbers blend this season with last. The season switch at the top shows this season alone.
• Percentiles and ranks compare a team or player with the rest of the league: 90 means better than 90% of the league at that thing.
• Blind spots. Public game data doesn’t record passes before a shot, where defenders are standing, or rushes up the ice, so the site shows none of those.
• Hits, giveaways and takeaways depend on each arena’s scorer; anything built on them is arena-adjusted. How it works.
• Key players for each side are on the team pages.

Team pages: Los Angeles Kings · Colorado Avalanche