Colorado Avalanche

How Colorado plays, trait by trait, against the rest of the league.

Real numbers through Oct 10: 4 games this season, blended with last season. Traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

Real numbers through Oct 10, from this season’s 4 games only. Expect these to swing a lot this early, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

Offense

• Shot volume
  SelectiveRelentless

  70.2 shot attempts per 601st of 32

  69.3 shot attempts per 604th of 32

• Shot quality
  HopefulDangerous

  a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot20th of 32

  a 6.1% chance of scoring on the average shot21st of 32

• Second chances
  One-and-doneCrashers

  10.4% of chances come from rebounds8th of 32

  5.9% of chances come from rebounds26th of 32

• Off-turnover offense
  PatientOpportunist

  7.7% of chances come right after a turnover6th of 32

  10.6% of chances come right after a turnover11th of 32

• Shots from defensemen
  Forward-ledActive D

  37.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen2nd of 32

  34.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen15th of 32

• Shots from in close
  From distanceIn close

  27.5% of shots come from within 20 feet31st of 32

  25.6% of shots come from within 20 feet27th of 32

Defense

• Shot suppression
  PorousStingy

  53.7 shot attempts allowed per 609th of 32

  56.0 shot attempts allowed per 6019th of 32

• Quality allowed
  ExposedSheltered

  a 5.9% chance of scoring on the average shot against2nd of 32

  a 5.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against2nd of 32

• Breakdowns avoided
  Fire drillComposed

  0.40 defensive breakdowns per 6014th of 32

  0.61 defensive breakdowns per 6022nd of 32

• Goaltending
  SieveWall

  +0.12 goals saved above expected per 6013th of 32

  −0.50 goals saved above expected per 6024th of 32

Tempo and edge

• Pace
  SlogTrack meet

  89.0 shots per 60, both teams combined1st of 32

  92.1 shots per 60, both teams combined2nd of 32

• Forecheck pressure
  PassiveHounding

  forecheck score 92 (100 is league average)22nd of 3220.7 forecheck plays recorded per 6024th of 32

  forecheck score 86 (100 is league average)22nd of 3221.2 forecheck plays recorded per 6023rd of 32

• Physicality
  FinesseBruising

  hit score 85 (100 is league average)27th of 3222.5 hits recorded per 6028th of 32

  hit score 86 (100 is league average)24th of 3224.9 hits recorded per 6025th of 32

• Depth
  Top-heavyDeep

  40.2% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six30th of 32

  41.2% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six21st of 32

Special teams

• Power play
  HarmlessLethal

  7.2 expected goals per 60 on the power play21st of 32

  6.7 expected goals per 60 on the power play18th of 32

• Penalty kill
  LeakyAirtight

  6.6 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded2nd of 32

  4.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded4th of 32

• Power kill
  BunkeredPredatory

  0.7 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded24th of 32

  0.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded30th of 32

• Discipline
  RecklessClean

  0.15 more penalties drawn than taken per 605th of 32

  0.50 more penalties drawn than taken per 608th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are shown as arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Who Colorado leans on, and what they do best.

• Martin Necas

  #88 · Center · 19:06 a game

  4 P in 4 GP (2 G, 2 A)

  
  • Most ice time
  • L3 · Nelson, Landeskog
  • PP1
  • Finishingtop 3%
  • Setting up goalstop 3%
  • Top speedtop 3%
  • Shot blockingbottom 1%
  • Top speedtop 3%
  • Distance skatedTop 10
  • Fast burststop 9%
  • Shot blockingbottom 23%

• Nathan MacKinnon

  #29 · Center · 18:43 a game

  8 P in 4 GP (3 G, 5 A)

  
  • 2nd in ice time
  • L2 · Kadri, Lehkonen
  • PP1
  • Shooting volume3rd
  • Creating his own chances2nd
  • Setting up goals2nd
  • Shot blockingbottom 2%
  • Shooting volumeTop 10
  • Setting up goalstop 12%
  • Fast bursts3rd
  • Shot blockingbottom 24%

• Artturi Lehkonen

  #62 · Left wing · 18:24 a game

  4 P in 4 GP (3 G, 1 A)

  
  • L2 · Kadri, MacKinnon
  • PP2
  • Kills penalties
  • Staying out of the boxtop 8%
  • Creating his own chancestop 12%
  • Creating chancestop 15%
  • Shooting volumebottom 14%
  • Finishingtop 24%
  • Shooting volumebottom 9%

• Nazem Kadri

  #91 · Center · 17:56 a game

  3 P in 4 GP (0 G, 3 A)

  
  • L2 · Lehkonen, MacKinnon
  • PP2
  • Shooting volumetop 9%
  • Staying out of the boxtop 19%
  • Finishingbottom 7%
  • Takeawaystop 24%

• Cale Makar

  #8 · Defenseman · 21:28 a game

  6 P in 4 GP (3 G, 3 A)

  
  • Most ice time
  • P1 · Toews
  • PP1
  • Kills penalties
  • Creating his own chances1st
  • Setting up goals1st
  • Top speedTop 5
  • Hittingbottom 6%
  • Finishingtop 8%
  • Creating his own chancestop 19%
  • Hardest shot1st
  • Hittingbottom 19%

• Devon Toews

  #7 · Defenseman · 19:50 a game

  4 P in 4 GP (2 G, 2 A)

  
  • 2nd in ice time
  • P1 · Makar
  • PP2
  • Kills penalties
  • Creating chancesTop 10
  • TakeawaysTop 10
  • Creating his own chancestop 10%
  • Power-play chancesbottom 4%
  • Top speedtop 10%
  • Shot blockingbottom 22%

The 4 forwards and 2 defensemen with the most ice time a game (at least half the games played). Tags show how each is used; rows show his clearest strengths, and a weak spot in grey, as a percentile against his position. Point at anything for details. All Avalanche players.

Who plays together at 5-on-5, and how each group is doing.

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over the team’s last 10 games (4 so far this season), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Last game

At Calgary Flames, the team used the same lines and pairs as above.

Which opposing lines each Colorado group has actually been out against at 5-on-5.

Each strip adds to 100%: it shows how one Colorado group’s 5-on-5 time is split across the opponent’s four forward lines, numbered the same way as above. Sized by ice time, a wider box means more time against that line; even columns line the boxes up so you can compare groups straight down. At home the coach changes last and picks these matchups; on the road the other coach does. Faded rows have under ten minutes.

What “with no line matching” means: if a coach just rolled his lines and took whoever was out there, each of his groups would face the opponent’s first line about as often as that line is on the ice. If opposing first lines play a third of the time against Colorado, every Colorado group would see them for about a third of its shifts. A number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against them on purpose; well below means he is keeping it away.

Who Colorado sends out with a man up and a man down.

Each power-play unit is built around its quarterback, the defenseman running it, plus the four players most often out with him over the last 10 games (4 so far). Power-play units’ expected goals per 60 are pulled toward league average while samples are small. Penalty kills are too loose for fixed units (the most common foursome covers only about a tenth of a typical team’s shorthanded time), so penalty killers are grouped by when they go on: the ones who start kills, the second wave who come on after the first change, and spot duty. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

What the tags mean

Quarterbackthe defenseman who runs the unit from the blue line.

Triggerthe unit’s main shooter, with the most dangerous power-play shots on the team over this season and last.

Distributorthe main passer, with the most first assists on the team’s power-play goals over this season and last.

Net-frontparks in front of the net. At least 40% of his power-play shots come from within 15 feet.

Pointa second defenseman on the unit, alongside the quarterback.

Is he stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

M. Blackwood39 starts · 1009 shots faced, this season and last

+5.4 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %

.975 527 shots

Medium-danger save %

.874 348 shots

High-danger save %

.694 134 shots

Shots faced per 60

25.9

Defensive breakdowns per 60

0.39

Quality starts

67%

Night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

Helping, or hung out to dry?

Show the full picture for M. BlackwoodHide the full picture

• Stopping more than expected
  SieveWall

  +5.4 goals saved above expected in 39 starts

• How busy he is
  QuietUnder siege

  25.9 shots faced per 60

• How dangerous the shots are
  ShelteredExposed

  the average shot he faces has a 6.6% chance of going in

• Breakdowns in front of him
  RareConstant

  0.39 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60

• Waiting between shots
  Steady workLong waits

  a typical wait of 77 seconds between shots; 23% come after three quiet minutes

• Night-to-night steadiness
  StreakySteady

  a quality start 67% of the time

Really bad starts

15%

Overall save %

.903

M. Blackwood3 starts · 76 shots faced, this season

−1.5 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %

.953 43 shots

Medium-danger save %

.857 28 shots

High-danger save %

.600 5 shots

Shots faced per 60

25.4

Defensive breakdowns per 60

0.33

Quality starts

33%

Night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

Helping, or hung out to dry?

Show the full picture for M. BlackwoodHide the full picture

• Stopping more than expected
  SieveWall

  −1.5 goals saved above expected in 3 starts

• How busy he is
  QuietUnder siege

  25.4 shots faced per 60

• How dangerous the shots are
  ShelteredExposed

  the average shot he faces has a 5.4% chance of going in

• Breakdowns in front of him
  RareConstant

  0.33 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60

• Waiting between shots
  Steady workLong waits

  a typical wait of 81 seconds between shots; 29% come after three quiet minutes

• Night-to-night steadiness
  StreakySteady

  a quality start 33% of the time

Really bad starts

33%

Overall save %

.895

S. Wedgewood43 starts · 1122 shots faced, this season and last

+22.4 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %

.977 622 shots

Medium-danger save %

.892 342 shots

High-danger save %

.759 158 shots

Shots faced per 60

25.8

Defensive breakdowns per 60

0.41

Quality starts

79%

Night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

Helping, or hung out to dry?

Show the full picture for S. WedgewoodHide the full picture

• Stopping more than expected
  SieveWall

  +22.4 goals saved above expected in 43 starts

• How busy he is
  QuietUnder siege

  25.8 shots faced per 60

• How dangerous the shots are
  ShelteredExposed

  the average shot he faces has a 6.4% chance of going in

• Breakdowns in front of him
  RareConstant

  0.41 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60

• Waiting between shots
  Steady workLong waits

  a typical wait of 76 seconds between shots; 23% come after three quiet minutes

• Night-to-night steadiness
  StreakySteady

  a quality start 79% of the time

Really bad starts

12%

Overall save %

.921

S. Wedgewood1 start · 29 shots faced, this season

−0.5 goals saved above expected too few starts to rate

Low-danger save %

1.000 20 shots

Medium-danger save %

.600 5 shots

High-danger save %

.750 4 shots

Shots faced per 60

29

Defensive breakdowns per 60

1

Quality starts

100%

Night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

Helping, or hung out to dry?

Show the full picture for S. WedgewoodHide the full picture

• Stopping more than expected
  SieveWall

  −0.5 goals saved above expected in 1 starttoo few starts to place him

• How busy he is
  QuietUnder siege

  29 shots faced per 60too few starts to place him

• How dangerous the shots are
  ShelteredExposed

  the average shot he faces has a 5.5% chance of going intoo few starts to place him

• Breakdowns in front of him
  RareConstant

  1 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60too few starts to place him

• Waiting between shots
  Steady workLong waits

  a typical wait of 96 seconds between shots; 28% come after three quiet minutestoo few starts to place him

• Night-to-night steadiness
  StreakySteady

  a quality start 100% of the timetoo few starts to place him

Really bad starts

0%

Overall save %

.897

Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up a lot of cross-ice passes will look worse here than he really is. Ratings compare him with goalies who have at least 10 starts over two seasons, or 2 this season.

How Colorado’s goals are scored and allowed, against the league average, and how much of any difference luck alone could explain.

Every goal counts once, in the first of these that applies: empty net, power play, shorthanded, goalie pulled, then rebound, turnover, faceoff win, and everyday play. These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last.