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NYI

New York Islanders

0-0-0

TOR

Toronto Maple Leafs

0-1-0

Has last change

Wednesday, September 30

7:30 PM ET · Scotiabank Arena

The short version

Before the game

The Islanders can’t afford to cough it up

The Maple Leafs pounce on loose pucks, and the Islanders cough them up. Both teams like a fast game. The Islanders have controlled the play far better over recent games, Toronto is playing for the second night in a row, and Toronto has home ice. Toronto’s best way through is pouncing on loose pucks.

The Maple Leafs pounce on loose pucks, and the Islanders cough them up. Both teams like a fast game. The Islanders have controlled the play far better over recent games, Toronto is playing for the second night in a row, and Toronto has home ice. Toronto can make it interesting if they pounce on loose pucks.

Who to watch

  • Leads the wayWilliam Nylander leads the Maple Leafs with two points.

  1. The Islanders can’t afford to cough it up

    Almost nobody punishes turnovers like the Maple Leafs, and the Islanders give the puck away in bad spots.

    The call The Maple Leafs get at least their usual 8.6% of their 5-on-5 chances right after winning the puck.

    Toronto 1st for chances off turnovers (8.6% of their chances come right after winning the puck) · NY Islanders 31st for avoiding breakdowns

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 1 and 0 games this season

  2. Expect a track meet

    The Islanders plays some of the league’s fastest games, and so does Toronto. We think this one runs hotter than either team’s usual.

    The call The game runs at more than 84.1 shots per 60 at 5-on-5, faster than either team’s usual.

    Pace (shots per 60 at 5-on-5, both teams): NY Islanders 10th (82.9), Toronto 6th (84.1)

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 0 and 1 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How NY Islanders and Toronto play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

New York IslandersToronto Maple LeafsLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 0 and 1 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 0 games for NY Islanders, 1 for Toronto. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • NY Islanders: 55.9 shot attempts per 6020th of 32

      NY Islanders: nothing to show yet this season

    • Toronto: 50.4 shot attempts per 6028th of 32

      Toronto: 48.0 shot attempts per 606th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • NY Islanders: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot18th of 32

      NY Islanders: nothing to show yet this season

    • Toronto: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot16th of 32

      Toronto: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot5th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • NY Islanders: 10.5% of chances come from rebounds4th of 32

      NY Islanders: nothing to show yet this season

    • Toronto: 10.2% of chances come from rebounds18th of 32

      Toronto: 3.2% of chances come from rebounds6th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • NY Islanders: 6.6% of chances come right after a turnover30th of 32

      NY Islanders: nothing to show yet this season

    • Toronto: 8.6% of chances come right after a turnover1st of 32

      Toronto: 0.9% of chances come right after a turnover6th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • NY Islanders: 39.2% of shot attempts come from defensemen3rd of 32

      NY Islanders: nothing to show yet this season

    • Toronto: 34.1% of shot attempts come from defensemen18th of 32

      Toronto: 30.8% of shot attempts come from defensemen5th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • NY Islanders: 29.7% of shots come from within 20 feet22nd of 32

      NY Islanders: nothing to show yet this season

    • Toronto: 30.1% of shots come from within 20 feet17th of 32

      Toronto: 32.3% of shots come from within 20 feet3rd of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • NY Islanders: 58.7 shot attempts allowed per 6024th of 32

      NY Islanders: nothing to show yet this season

    • Toronto: 62.6 shot attempts allowed per 6032nd of 32

      Toronto: 53.9 shot attempts allowed per 607th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • NY Islanders: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against26th of 32

      NY Islanders: nothing to show yet this season

    • Toronto: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against12th of 32

      Toronto: a 7.6% chance of scoring on the average shot against10th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • NY Islanders: 0.48 defensive breakdowns per 6031st of 32

      NY Islanders: nothing to show yet this season

    • Toronto: 0.42 defensive breakdowns per 6024th of 32

      Toronto: 1.29 defensive breakdowns per 6010th of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • NY Islanders: +0.21 goals saved above expected per 603rd of 32

      NY Islanders: nothing to show yet this season

    • Toronto: −0.03 goals saved above expected per 6031st of 32

      Toronto: −0.31 goals saved above expected per 607th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • NY Islanders: 82.9 shots per 60, both teams combined10th of 32

      NY Islanders: nothing to show yet this season

    • Toronto: 84.1 shots per 60, both teams combined6th of 32

      Toronto: 76.3 shots per 60, both teams combined3rd of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • NY Islanders: forecheck score 96 (100 is league average)20th of 32NY Islanders: 20.7 forecheck plays recorded per 6018th of 32

      NY Islanders: nothing to show yet this season

    • Toronto: forecheck score 97 (100 is league average)17th of 32Toronto: 22.4 forecheck plays recorded per 6012th of 32

      Toronto: forecheck score 80 (100 is league average)8th of 32Toronto: 24.6 forecheck plays recorded per 608th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • NY Islanders: hit score 95 (100 is league average)18th of 32NY Islanders: 23.6 hits recorded per 6019th of 32

      NY Islanders: nothing to show yet this season

    • Toronto: hit score 99 (100 is league average)15th of 32Toronto: 27.3 hits recorded per 607th of 32

      Toronto: hit score 76 (100 is league average)8th of 32Toronto: 31.5 hits recorded per 607th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • NY Islanders: 42.7% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six9th of 32

      NY Islanders: nothing to show yet this season

    • Toronto: 41.2% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six20th of 32

      Toronto: 40.6% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six10th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • NY Islanders: 6.8 expected goals per 60 on the power play30th of 32

      NY Islanders: nothing to show yet this season

    • Toronto: 7.6 expected goals per 60 on the power play12th of 32

      Toronto: 6.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play4th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • NY Islanders: 8.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded31st of 32

      NY Islanders: nothing to show yet this season

    • Toronto: 8.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded30th of 32

      Toronto: 5.6 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded6th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • NY Islanders: 1.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded8th of 32

      NY Islanders: nothing to show yet this season

    • Toronto: 0.8 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded18th of 32

      Toronto: 0.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded7th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • NY Islanders: 0.13 more penalties drawn than taken per 605th of 32

      NY Islanders: nothing to show yet this season

    • Toronto: 0.23 more penalties taken than drawn per 6031st of 32

      Toronto: 1.00 more penalties drawn than taken per 602nd of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Toronto is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (0 and 1 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

New York Islanders

    Toronto Maple Leafs

    Who Toronto is likely to send against whom

    Each strip shows how one Toronto group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are NY Islanders’s, named in each box.

    NY Islanders’s lines tonightL1 –L2 –L3 –L4 –

    Toronto forward lines against NY Islanders forward lines

    • L1Roslovic · Matthews · MarchenkoNYI L147%NYI L215%NYI L318%NYI L421%
    • L2Tavares · Nylander · McKennaNYI L110%NYI L232%NYI L318%NYI L440%
    • L3Sissons · Paul · CowanNYI L117%NYI L235%NYI L332%NYI L416%
    • L4Blueger · Duhaime · MacEwenNYI L128%NYI L224%NYI L336%NYI L412%

    Toronto defense pairs against NY Islanders forward lines

    • P1Ekman-Larsson · StecherNYI L118%NYI L230%NYI L330%NYI L422%
    • P2Rielly · RaddyshNYI L134%NYI L229%NYI L317%NYI L420%
    • P3Tanev · McCabeNYI L140%NYI L29%NYI L324%NYI L427%

    Based on 1 Toronto home game this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

    Special teams

    Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

    Show

    NY Islanders power play against Toronto penalty kill

    • NY Islanders power play

      6.8 expected goals per 60 · 30th of 32

    • Toronto penalty kill

      8.4 expected goals allowed per 60 · 30th of 32

    NY Islanders power play

     

    Toronto penalty kill

    Starts the kill

    Second wave

    Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

    Goaltending

    Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

    Showagainst

    Helping, or hung out to dry?

    System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesS. Bobrovsky

    S. Bobrovsky50 starts · 1274 shots, this season and last

    −18.8 goals saved above expected

    Low-danger save %
    .968 665 shots
    Medium-danger save %
    .845 407 shots
    High-danger save %
    .639 202 shots
    Shots faced per 60
    24.9
    Defensive breakdowns per 60
    0.27
    Quality starts
    54%
    Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
    • Stopping more than expected
      SieveWall
      • S. Bobrovsky: −18.8 goals saved above expected in 50 starts
    • How busy he is
      QuietUnder siege
      • S. Bobrovsky: 24.9 shots faced per 60
    • How dangerous the shots are
      ShelteredExposed
      • S. Bobrovsky: the average shot he faces has a 7.0% chance of going in
    • Breakdowns in front of him
      RareConstant
      • S. Bobrovsky: 0.27 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • Waiting between shots
      Steady workLong waits
      • S. Bobrovsky: a typical wait of 82 seconds between shots
    • Night-to-night steadiness
      StreakySteady
      • S. Bobrovsky: a quality start 54% of the time

    S. Bobrovsky, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

    −3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

    Helping, or hung out to dry?

    System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesS. Bobrovsky

    S. Bobrovsky1 start · 24 shots, this season

    −0.3 goals saved above expected too few starts to rate

    Low-danger save %
    .933 15 shots
    Medium-danger save %
    1.000 5 shots
    High-danger save %
    .500 4 shots
    Shots faced per 60
    24.5
    Defensive breakdowns per 60
    1.02
    Quality starts
    0%
    Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
    • Stopping more than expected
      SieveWall
      • S. Bobrovsky: −0.3 goals saved above expected in 1 start (too few starts to place)
    • How busy he is
      QuietUnder siege
      • S. Bobrovsky: 24.5 shots faced per 60 (too few starts to place)
    • How dangerous the shots are
      ShelteredExposed
      • S. Bobrovsky: the average shot he faces has a 7.5% chance of going in (too few starts to place)
    • Breakdowns in front of him
      RareConstant
      • S. Bobrovsky: 1.02 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60 (too few starts to place)
    • Waiting between shots
      Steady workLong waits
      • S. Bobrovsky: a typical wait of 74 seconds between shots (too few starts to place)
    • Night-to-night steadiness
      StreakySteady
      • S. Bobrovsky: a quality start 0% of the time (too few starts to place)

    S. Bobrovsky, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

    −3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

    The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

    Where the goals come from

    How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

    Show goals
    NY IslandersTorontoLeague average
    • Everyday even-strength play–%57.5%
    • Power play–%15.4%
    • Rebound–%7.9%
    • Empty net–%7.5%
    • Off a turnover–%6.7%
    • Goalie pulled–%1.6%
    • Shorthanded–%2.4%
    • Off a faceoff win–%1.2%

    0 NY Islanders goals and 254 Toronto goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

    • Everyday even-strength play–%100%
    • Power play–%0%
    • Rebound–%0%
    • Empty net–%0%
    • Off a turnover–%0%
    • Goalie pulled–%0%
    • Shorthanded–%0%
    • Off a faceoff win–%0%

    0 NY Islanders goals and 2 Toronto goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

    These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

    Data notes

    Team pages: New York Islanders · Toronto Maple Leafs