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final

NJD0

New Jersey Devils

NYI6

New York Islanders

Saturday, October 3

Final · UBS Arena

The short version

What happened

Sorokin shuts out the Devils

Simon Holmstrom opened the scoring early in the second. Six different Islanders scored. Ilya Sorokin stopped all 37 shots.

The chances were closer than the score.

What it means

  • The previewOne of the preview’s two calls held.
  • RecordThe Islanders are now 1-1-0.

Our pre-game read

The win chance our model worked out before the game, kept off the site until now.

We gave New Jersey a 67% chance, but NY Islanders had other ideas.

Two even teams on neutral ice50%
Home ice−4 points46%
Recent chances+8 points54%
Who's been playing+13 points67%
Back-to-back0 points67%
Our chance for New Jersey the morning of the game67%
Tonight's lineup0 points
At puck drop, once the lineups were known67%

Recent chances: how much better each team’s chances have been than their opponents’ lately, with the latest games counting most. Who’s been playing: whether the players who dressed last time were stronger or weaker than the ones behind those recent games, so a star who is out or back counts straight away. Back-to-back: playing for the second night in a row. Tonight’s lineup: any change in who dressed since the last game. Only earlier games went into it, and the preview hinted at it in words without showing the number.

We gave NY Islanders a 33% chance, and NY Islanders proved us wrong.

Two even teams on neutral ice50%
Home ice+4 points54%
Recent chances−8 points46%
Who's been playing−13 points33%
Back-to-back0 points33%
Our chance for NY Islanders the morning of the game33%
Tonight's lineup0 points
At puck drop, once the lineups were known33%

Recent chances: how much better each team’s chances have been than their opponents’ lately, with the latest games counting most. Who’s been playing: whether the players who dressed last time were stronger or weaker than the ones behind those recent games, so a star who is out or back counts straight away. Back-to-back: playing for the second night in a row. Tonight’s lineup: any change in who dressed since the last game. Only earlier games went into it, and the preview hinted at it in words without showing the number.

What the preview said, and what happened

Of the 2 calls the preview made, 1 held up, 0 partly did, and 1 didn’t happen.

  1. Before the game

    The Islanders can’t afford to take penalties

    The Devils’ power play is one of the league’s best, and the Islanders’ kill is one of the league’s worst. Every trip to the box hurts the Islanders more than most.

    The call The Devils’ power play creates at least their usual 8.5 expected goals per 60.

    New Jersey 4th for power play (8.5 expected goals per 60) · NY Islanders 31st for penalty kill

    Didn’t happen

    New Jersey’s power play created 4.0 expected goals per 60 in 10:00 of 5-on-4 time, against their usual 8.5, and scored 0 goals.

    8.5 per 60
    Coming in
    4.0 per 60
    In this game
    7.6 per 60
    League average

  2. Before the game

    The Devils feed on mistakes, and the Islanders make them

    The Devils turn stolen pucks into chances, and the Islanders are one of the league’s worst at avoiding breakdowns. A sloppy pass or two could cost the Islanders.

    The call The Devils get at least their usual 7.6% of their 5-on-5 chances right after winning the puck.

    New Jersey 6th for chances off turnovers (7.6% of their chances come right after winning the puck) · NY Islanders 31st for avoiding breakdowns

    Held up

    11.9% of New Jersey’s 5-on-5 chances came right after winning the puck, against their usual 7.6%.

    7.6%
    Coming in
    11.9%
    In this game
    7.3%
    League average

Each call is checked by a rule set before the game. Held up: the team reached their usual level. Partly: they fell short of their usual level but still beat the league average. When a call says one team will come out ahead, held up means they won by at least half their usual gap, and partly means they won by less. One game is a small sample, so a miss doesn’t mean the preview was wrong about the team.

Read the full preview as it stood at puck drop.

This season so far: 94 held up, 12 partly, 64 didn’t happen, out of 170 graded calls. See the track record.

Run it back

We replayed this game’s chances 100 times. Here is how often each team came out ahead.

Too close to call on chances

Played out 100 times with these chances, New Jersey wins 45 and NY Islanders 55, close to a coin flip.

45%
New Jersey: 37 wins, plus half of the 16 ties
55%
NY Islanders: 47 wins, plus half of the 16 ties

New Jersey had 52 chances worth 3.5 expected goals. NY Islanders had 38 chances worth 3.8 expected goals.

How it works: every shot in regulation that was on target or missed the net goes in as often as our expected-goals model says it should, and the game is played out 100 times that way. A rebound scramble counts as one chance, and empty-net shots are left out. A replay tied after regulation counts as half a win each, since overtime and shootouts are close to coin flips.

It doesn’t know about goalies, finishing skill or passes before a shot. It also favours the team that was chasing, because a team with a lead tends to sit back. Over the last three seasons, teams it gave 80% or more won about two games in three.

What the preview didn’t see coming

The parts of this game furthest from how these teams usually play, biggest first.

Broke the pattern: a team did the opposite of their usual habit. Further than usual: a usual habit, taken much further. Closer than usual: a usual strength or weakness that mostly disappeared. Out of character: a usually average team, far from average. Each is measured against the teams’ numbers before the game.

The numbers

How the game went, beyond the score.

New JerseyNY Islanders
Goals06
Shots on goal3732
Expected goals3.53.8
Shot attempts at 5-on-55934
Power plays0 of 51 of 3

Swing

How far each player swung tonight’s result, for his team or against it.

The biggest swings: M. Schaefer +1.4, A. Pelech +1.3 and B. Schenn +1.1.

Showhighlighting

The number is roughly in goals: what he added to his team tonight, or cost it. Tap a player to see where it came from. The label beside it is his report card from “Did they do their job?” below; L1 to L4 and P1 to P3 are tonight’s lines and pairs.

How Swing is worked outHide how Swing is worked out

Scoresheet: each goal is shared 40% to the scorer, 35% to the first assist and 25% to the second, plus a quarter of the expected goals of his own shots. A penalty drawn adds 0.16 and one taken costs 0.16, what a power play is worth on average; each faceoff won or lost moves it by 0.006.

5-on-5 counts most: expected goals for minus against with him on, half compared with league average (adjusted for score and venue) and half compared with his own team when he was on the bench, plus a smaller amount for actual goals. A player on a losing team can score well if his line held its own. Special teams: power-play and penalty-kill time compared with a league-average unit.

Company kept (counted inside 5-on-5): from every player’s 5-on-5 impact over the two seasons before, a player out with strong linemates against weak opponents gives a little back, and the reverse earns a little. Goalies: goals saved above expected. Empty-net shots and shootouts are left out. One game is a small sample: this says who swung this result, not who is better.

Did they do their job?

What each player is relied on for or better than most at, and whether he delivered.

Show
  • D. HamiltonDid his job
    Defense
    22:17
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −3
    xGF–xGA
    1.2–1.1
    Shots
    3
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    2
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play4.2typical 7.6
    • ✓Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill1.2typical 5.3
    • ✓Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-56typical 5
  • L. HughesMixed night
    Defense
    21:41
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.7–0.5
    Shots
    3
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play4.8typical 7.4
    • ≈Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-53typical 4
    • ✓Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.08typical 0.06
  • J. SiegenthalerOff night
    Defense
    21:08
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −2
    xGF–xGA
    1.7–1.1
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill3.5typical 5.9
    • ✕Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-53.4typical 2.4
    • ✕Blocking shots Better than mostblocked shots0typical 2
  • J. HughesMixed night
    Center
    21:01
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    1.2–0.7
    Shots
    3
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play5.4typical 7.9
    • ≈Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-54typical 5
    • ✓Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.49typical 0.15
  • T. MeierDid his job
    Right wing
    19:57
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −2
    xGF–xGA
    0.9–0.7
    Shots
    6
    Hits
    4
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play3.3typical 7.0
    • ✓Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-55typical 5
    • ✓Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.32typical 0.16
  • N. HischierOff night
    Center
    19:19
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    1.1–0.4
    Shots
    3
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play5.4typical 7.8
    • ✓Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill5.7typical 6.2
    • ✕Faceoffs Better than mostfaceoffs won6 of 16typical 56%
Show 11 more New Jersey playersHide the other New Jersey players
  • L. EvangelistaDid his job
    Right wing
    18:55
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    1.2–0.5
    Shots
    3
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    1
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play4.5typical 6.5
    • ✓Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-52.2typical 2.4
  • B. PesceMixed night
    Defense
    18:52
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    1.2–0.6
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill9.2typical 6.0
    • ✕Blocking shots Better than mostblocked shots0typical 2
    • ✓Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-52.2typical 2.4
  • E. RodriguesDid his job
    Center
    16:14
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −2
    xGF–xGA
    0.6–0.6
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play4.2typical 6.4
    • ✓Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill3.8typical 5.6
    • ✓Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-55typical 3
  • J. BrattDid his job
    Left wing
    15:53
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    0.8–0.3
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    2
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play5.4typical 7.9
    • ✓Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-54.2typical 2.7
    • ✓Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-53typical 3
  • A. GritsyukDid his job
    Right wing
    15:22
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −2
    xGF–xGA
    0.8–0.4
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    2
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-55typical 3
    • ✓Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-54.2typical 2.4
  • A. ManthaOff night
    Right wing
    15:08
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −2
    xGF–xGA
    0.6–0.4
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play2.8typical 6.5
  • D. MercerOff night
    Center
    15:02
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    0.6–0.5
    Shots
    3
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    2
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill9.7typical 5.9
    • ≈Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-52.6typical 2.4
    • –Power play Relied onToo little time to judge
  • B. DillonDid his job
    Defense
    13:13
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    0.4–0.6
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    2
    Blocks
    3
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill11.9typical 6.7
    • ✓Hitting Better than mosthits2typical 1
  • D. ChisholmOff night
    Defense
    12:40
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −2
    xGF–xGA
    0.5–1.0
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-55.1typical 2.4
  • C. GlassDid his job
    Center
    11:40
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    0.3–0.7
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    1
    • ✕Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-55.1typical 2.3
    • ✓Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.19typical 0.07
    • ✓Faceoffs Better than mostfaceoffs won6 of 11typical 53%
  • S. NoesenOff night
    Right wing
    8:48
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −2
    xGF–xGA
    0.3–1.1
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Hitting Better than mosthits0typical 2
    • ✕Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-58.2typical 2.4
    • –Power play Relied onToo little time to judge
How the cards are gradedHide how the cards are graded

✓ a typical night for him in the ice time he got (the level he reaches in about half his games). ≈ beat an average player at his position, a typical power play or kill, or his own team with him off the ice. ✕ neither. Power-play and penalty-kill results count half, since five players share them.

Huge night: a hat trick or four or more points. Big night: two or more points, or a goal from a player who scores in fewer than one game in five on top of doing his jobs. Rough night: no points while the other team had 70% or more of the 5-on-5 chances with him on (xGF–xGA). Plus-minus never sets the level. A shorthanded goal counts as two points. Points never fully cover for jobs that went badly: with his jobs off, a huge night reads big and a big night reads mixed.

Judged only from games before this one; 5-on-5 rates adjusted for score and venue. One game is a small sample: even a strong player misses a typical night about half the time. Both teams: 40 ✓, 8 ≈, 28 ✕.

In net

Each goalie’s night: the goals he stopped beyond what the shots were worth, and the dangerous and routine saves.

  • N. DawsRough night

    26 saves on 32 shots, −2.2 goals saved above expected.

    Goalie
    59:52
    Shots
    32
    Saves
    26
    Sv%
    .812
    xGA
    3.8
    GSAx
    −2.2
    Dangerous
    5/9
    • ✕Saving more than expected goals saved above expected-2.2typical +0.0
    • ✕Dangerous shots saves on shots with a 15%+ chance5 of 9typically saves 6 of 9
    • ✕Routine shots saves on shots under a 15% chance21 of 23typically saves 22 of 23
  • I. Sorokin★ Huge night

    A shutout, 37 saves on 37 shots, +3.5 goals saved above expected.

    Goalie
    60:00
    Shots
    37
    Saves
    37
    Sv%
    1.000
    xGA
    3.5
    GSAx
    +3.5
    Dangerous
    4/4
    • ✓Saving more than expected goals saved above expected+3.5typical +0.3
    • ✓Dangerous shots saves on shots with a 15%+ chance4 of 4typically saves 3 of 4
    • ✓Routine shots saves on shots under a 15% chance33 of 33typically saves 31 of 33

Every goalie has the same three jobs, judged against his own earlier starts (✓) and an average goalie (≈). Huge night: a shutout on 25 or more shots, or 3+ goals saved above expected. Big night: any other shutout, or 1.5+. Rough night: 2+ goals worse than expected, or pulled early after three or more.

Empty-net shots are left out. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie beaten by cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really was.

Team pages: New Jersey Devils · New York Islanders