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TBL

Tampa Bay Lightning

0-0-0

NYR

New York Rangers

0-1-0

Has last change

Thursday, October 1

7:00 PM ET · Madison Square Garden

The short version

Before the game

Bjorkstrand meets his old team

The Rangers pounce on loose pucks, and the Lightning cough them up. The Lightning and the Rangers sit at opposite ends for shot quality. Tampa Bay has controlled the play far better over recent games and the Rangers have home ice. The Rangers can tip it if they pounce on loose pucks.

The Rangers pounce on loose pucks, and the Lightning cough them up. The Lightning and the Rangers sit at opposite ends for shot quality. Tampa Bay has controlled the play far better over recent games and the Rangers have home ice. Tampa Bay can tip it if they keep shots to a minimum.

Who to watch

  • Old teamOliver Bjorkstrand faces Tampa Bay for the first time since leaving.
  • Owns themMika Zibanejad has a point in five straight games against Tampa Bay.

  1. Turnovers could swing this one

    The Rangers turn stolen pucks into chances, and the Lightning are near the bottom of the league at avoiding breakdowns. A sloppy pass or two could cost the Lightning.

    The call The Rangers get at least their usual 7.5% of their 5-on-5 chances right after winning the puck.

    NY Rangers 10th for chances off turnovers (7.5% of their chances come right after winning the puck) · Tampa Bay 24th for avoiding breakdowns

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 1 and 0 games this season

  2. Good looks against hopeful ones

    The Lightning are near the top of the league for shot quality, at the dangerous end; the Rangers are near the bottom of the league, at the hopeful end. Expect that gap to show.

    The call The Lightning’s shots are more dangerous on average than the Rangers’.

    Shot quality: Tampa Bay 6th, NY Rangers 25th

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 0 and 1 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Tampa Bay and NY Rangers play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Tampa Bay LightningNew York RangersLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 0 and 1 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 0 games for Tampa Bay, 1 for NY Rangers. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Tampa Bay: 59.2 shot attempts per 609th of 32

      Tampa Bay: nothing to show yet this season

    • NY Rangers: 53.2 shot attempts per 6024th of 32

      NY Rangers: 48.8 shot attempts per 6010th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Tampa Bay: a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot6th of 32

      Tampa Bay: nothing to show yet this season

    • NY Rangers: a 6.1% chance of scoring on the average shot25th of 32

      NY Rangers: a 6.7% chance of scoring on the average shot6th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Tampa Bay: 10.5% of chances come from rebounds6th of 32

      Tampa Bay: nothing to show yet this season

    • NY Rangers: 10.1% of chances come from rebounds22nd of 32

      NY Rangers: 11.8% of chances come from rebounds4th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Tampa Bay: 6.8% of chances come right after a turnover25th of 32

      Tampa Bay: nothing to show yet this season

    • NY Rangers: 7.5% of chances come right after a turnover10th of 32

      NY Rangers: 11.4% of chances come right after a turnover4th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Tampa Bay: 35.2% of shot attempts come from defensemen14th of 32

      Tampa Bay: nothing to show yet this season

    • NY Rangers: 36.3% of shot attempts come from defensemen8th of 32

      NY Rangers: 34.1% of shot attempts come from defensemen5th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Tampa Bay: 31.1% of shots come from within 20 feet9th of 32

      Tampa Bay: nothing to show yet this season

    • NY Rangers: 31.4% of shots come from within 20 feet6th of 32

      NY Rangers: 44.8% of shots come from within 20 feet1st of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Tampa Bay: 51.9 shot attempts allowed per 604th of 32

      Tampa Bay: nothing to show yet this season

    • NY Rangers: 57.5 shot attempts allowed per 6018th of 32

      NY Rangers: 55.8 shot attempts allowed per 609th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Tampa Bay: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against15th of 32

      Tampa Bay: nothing to show yet this season

    • NY Rangers: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against10th of 32

      NY Rangers: a 6.7% chance of scoring on the average shot against13th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Tampa Bay: 0.42 defensive breakdowns per 6024th of 32

      Tampa Bay: nothing to show yet this season

    • NY Rangers: 0.42 defensive breakdowns per 6020th of 32

      NY Rangers: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Tampa Bay: +0.12 goals saved above expected per 6013th of 32

      Tampa Bay: nothing to show yet this season

    • NY Rangers: +0.19 goals saved above expected per 604th of 32

      NY Rangers: +0.67 goals saved above expected per 606th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Tampa Bay: 81.0 shots per 60, both teams combined21st of 32

      Tampa Bay: nothing to show yet this season

    • NY Rangers: 79.5 shots per 60, both teams combined28th of 32

      NY Rangers: 72.8 shots per 60, both teams combined12th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Tampa Bay: forecheck score 94 (100 is league average)20th of 32Tampa Bay: 20.6 forecheck plays recorded per 6020th of 32

      Tampa Bay: nothing to show yet this season

    • NY Rangers: forecheck score 122 (100 is league average)2nd of 32NY Rangers: 26.6 forecheck plays recorded per 603rd of 32

      NY Rangers: forecheck score 120 (100 is league average)5th of 32NY Rangers: 33.6 forecheck plays recorded per 605th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Tampa Bay: hit score 93 (100 is league average)20th of 32Tampa Bay: 24.1 hits recorded per 6017th of 32

      Tampa Bay: nothing to show yet this season

    • NY Rangers: hit score 125 (100 is league average)2nd of 32NY Rangers: 31.4 hits recorded per 602nd of 32

      NY Rangers: hit score 108 (100 is league average)6th of 32NY Rangers: 37.6 hits recorded per 606th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Tampa Bay: 40.6% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six27th of 32

      Tampa Bay: nothing to show yet this season

    • NY Rangers: 41.9% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six19th of 32

      NY Rangers: 45.5% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six3rd of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Tampa Bay: 7.5 expected goals per 60 on the power play14th of 32

      Tampa Bay: nothing to show yet this season

    • NY Rangers: 7.8 expected goals per 60 on the power play10th of 32

      NY Rangers: 1.9 expected goals per 60 on the power play15th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Tampa Bay: 7.3 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded11th of 32

      Tampa Bay: nothing to show yet this season

    • NY Rangers: 7.9 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded23rd of 32

      NY Rangers: 1.9 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded2nd of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Tampa Bay: 0.8 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded18th of 32

      Tampa Bay: nothing to show yet this season

    • NY Rangers: 0.7 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded26th of 32

      NY Rangers: 0.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded10th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Tampa Bay: 0.01 more penalties taken than drawn per 6016th of 32

      Tampa Bay: nothing to show yet this season

    • NY Rangers: 0.19 more penalties taken than drawn per 6030th of 32

      NY Rangers: 0.00 more penalties drawn than taken per 606th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

NY Rangers is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (0 and 1 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Tampa Bay Lightning

    New York Rangers

    Who NY Rangers is likely to send against whom

    NY Rangers has not played at home yet this season, so there is no matching habit to show.

    Special teams

    Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

    Show

    Tampa Bay power play against NY Rangers penalty kill

    • Tampa Bay power play

      7.5 expected goals per 60 · 14th of 32

    • NY Rangers penalty kill

      7.9 expected goals allowed per 60 · 23rd of 32

    Tampa Bay power play

     

    NY Rangers penalty kill

    Starts the kill

    Second wave

    Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

    Goaltending

    Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

    Showagainst

    Helping, or hung out to dry?

    System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesI. Shesterkin

    I. Shesterkin51 starts · 1447 shots, this season and last

    +23.9 goals saved above expected

    Low-danger save %
    .976 740 shots
    Medium-danger save %
    .887 505 shots
    High-danger save %
    .738 202 shots
    Shots faced per 60
    28.2
    Defensive breakdowns per 60
    0.35
    Quality starts
    65%
    Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
    • Stopping more than expected
      SieveWall
      • I. Shesterkin: +23.9 goals saved above expected in 51 starts
    • How busy he is
      QuietUnder siege
      • I. Shesterkin: 28.2 shots faced per 60
    • How dangerous the shots are
      ShelteredExposed
      • I. Shesterkin: the average shot he faces has a 6.9% chance of going in
    • Breakdowns in front of him
      RareConstant
      • I. Shesterkin: 0.35 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • Waiting between shots
      Steady workLong waits
      • I. Shesterkin: a typical wait of 71 seconds between shots
    • Night-to-night steadiness
      StreakySteady
      • I. Shesterkin: a quality start 65% of the time

    I. Shesterkin, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

    −3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

    Helping, or hung out to dry?

    System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesI. Shesterkin

    I. Shesterkin1 start · 22 shots, this season

    +0.7 goals saved above expected too few starts to rate

    Low-danger save %
    1.000 8 shots
    Medium-danger save %
    .909 11 shots
    High-danger save %
    .667 3 shots
    Shots faced per 60
    22.2
    Defensive breakdowns per 60
    0
    Quality starts
    100%
    Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
    • Stopping more than expected
      SieveWall
      • I. Shesterkin: +0.7 goals saved above expected in 1 start (too few starts to place)
    • How busy he is
      QuietUnder siege
      • I. Shesterkin: 22.2 shots faced per 60 (too few starts to place)
    • How dangerous the shots are
      ShelteredExposed
      • I. Shesterkin: the average shot he faces has a 6.8% chance of going in (too few starts to place)
    • Breakdowns in front of him
      RareConstant
      • I. Shesterkin: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60 (too few starts to place)
    • Waiting between shots
      Steady workLong waits
      • I. Shesterkin: a typical wait of 80 seconds between shots (too few starts to place)
    • Night-to-night steadiness
      StreakySteady
      • I. Shesterkin: a quality start 100% of the time (too few starts to place)

    I. Shesterkin, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

    −3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

    The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

    Where the goals come from

    How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

    Show goals
    Tampa BayNY RangersLeague average
    • Everyday even-strength play–%56.4%
    • Power play–%22.6%
    • Rebound–%6.8%
    • Empty net–%5.1%
    • Off a turnover–%3%
    • Goalie pulled–%2.6%
    • Shorthanded–%2.1%
    • Off a faceoff win–%1.3%

    0 Tampa Bay goals and 234 NY Rangers goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

    • Everyday even-strength play–%–%
    • Power play–%–%
    • Rebound–%–%
    • Empty net–%–%
    • Off a turnover–%–%
    • Goalie pulled–%–%
    • Shorthanded–%–%
    • Off a faceoff win–%–%

    0 Tampa Bay goals and 0 NY Rangers goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

    These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

    Data notes

    Team pages: Tampa Bay Lightning · New York Rangers