1. Nobody’s sitting back in this one

   Buffalo plays some of the league’s fastest games, and so does Columbus. We think this one runs hotter than either team’s usual.

   The call The game runs at more than 84.5 shots per 60 at 5-on-5, faster than either team’s usual.

   Pace (shots per 60 at 5-on-5, both teams): Buffalo 6th (84.1), Columbus 4th (84.5)

   Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 0 and 0 games this season

2. The Sabres kill penalties far better than the Blue Jackets

   On the penalty kill, Buffalo is around the middle of the league and Columbus is the league’s worst. That’s about as far apart as two teams get.

   The call The Sabres’ penalty kill allows less per 60 than the Blue Jackets’.

   Penalty kill: Buffalo 16th, Columbus 32nd

   Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 0 and 0 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

How Buffalo and Columbus play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 0 and 0 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 0 games for Buffalo, 0 for Columbus. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

• Discipline
  RecklessClean

  • Buffalo: 0.09 more penalties drawn than taken per 608th of 32

    Buffalo: nothing to show yet this season

  • Columbus: 0.12 more penalties taken than drawn per 6028th of 32

    Columbus: nothing to show yet this season

• Breakdowns avoided
  Fire drillComposed

  • Buffalo: 0.44 defensive breakdowns per 6027th of 32

    Buffalo: nothing to show yet this season

  • Columbus: 0.38 defensive breakdowns per 608th of 32

    Columbus: nothing to show yet this season

• Penalty kill
  LeakyAirtight

  • Buffalo: 7.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded16th of 32

    Buffalo: nothing to show yet this season

  • Columbus: 8.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded32nd of 32

    Columbus: nothing to show yet this season

• Shot volume
  SelectiveRelentless

  • Buffalo: 56.8 shot attempts per 6019th of 32

    Buffalo: nothing to show yet this season

  • Columbus: 60.9 shot attempts per 604th of 32

    Columbus: nothing to show yet this season

• Shots from defensemen
  Forward-ledActive D

  • Buffalo: 34.8% of shot attempts come from defensemen17th of 32

    Buffalo: nothing to show yet this season

  • Columbus: 37.1% of shot attempts come from defensemen5th of 32

    Columbus: nothing to show yet this season

• Forecheck pressure
  PassiveHounding

  • Buffalo: forecheck score 97 (100 is league average)16th of 32Buffalo: 20.7 forecheck plays recorded per 6019th of 32

    Buffalo: nothing to show yet this season

  • Columbus: forecheck score 109 (100 is league average)5th of 32Columbus: 22.6 forecheck plays recorded per 6010th of 32

    Columbus: nothing to show yet this season

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Columbus is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (0 and 0 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Who Columbus is likely to send against whom

Columbus has not played at home yet this season, so there is no matching habit to show.

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

• Sources. Game data from the NHL; expected goals from this site’s own model, cross-checked against MoneyPuck.com.
• Early season. Buffalo has played 0 games and Columbus 0, so most numbers blend this season with last. The season switch at the top shows this season alone.
• Percentiles and ranks compare a team or player with the rest of the league: 90 means better than 90% of the league at that thing.
• Blind spots. Public game data doesn’t record passes before a shot, where defenders are standing, or rushes up the ice, so the site shows none of those.
• Hits, giveaways and takeaways depend on each arena’s scorer; anything built on them is arena-adjusted. How it works.
• Key players for each side are on the team pages.

Team pages: Buffalo Sabres · Columbus Blue Jackets