1. Shots should fly both ways

   Minnesota plays some of the league’s fastest games, and so does Nashville. We think this one runs hotter than either team’s usual.

   The call The game runs at more than 85.1 shots per 60 at 5-on-5, faster than either team’s usual.

   Pace (shots per 60 at 5-on-5, both teams): Minnesota 3rd (85.1), Nashville 7th (84.0)

   Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 0 and 0 games this season

2. Sheltered against exposed

   On preventing dangerous shots, Minnesota is one of the league’s best and Nashville is around the middle of the league. That’s about as far apart as two teams get.

   The call The Wild prevent dangerous shots better than the Predators do.

   Preventing dangerous shots: Minnesota 3rd, Nashville 22nd

   Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 0 and 0 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

How Minnesota and Nashville play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 0 and 0 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 0 games for Minnesota, 0 for Nashville. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

• Quality allowed
  ExposedSheltered

  • Minnesota: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against3rd of 32

    Minnesota: nothing to show yet this season

  • Nashville: a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot against22nd of 32

    Nashville: nothing to show yet this season

• Physicality
  FinesseBruising

  • Minnesota: hit score 104 (100 is league average)9th of 32Minnesota: 25.9 hits recorded per 6011th of 32

    Minnesota: nothing to show yet this season

  • Nashville: hit score 91 (100 is league average)23rd of 32Nashville: 23.0 hits recorded per 6025th of 32

    Nashville: nothing to show yet this season

• Breakdowns avoided
  Fire drillComposed

  • Minnesota: 0.37 defensive breakdowns per 605th of 32

    Minnesota: nothing to show yet this season

  • Nashville: 0.41 defensive breakdowns per 6018th of 32

    Nashville: nothing to show yet this season

• Penalty kill
  LeakyAirtight

  • Minnesota: 8.0 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded24th of 32

    Minnesota: nothing to show yet this season

  • Nashville: 7.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded13th of 32

    Nashville: nothing to show yet this season

• Discipline
  RecklessClean

  • Minnesota: 0.24 more penalties drawn than taken per 602nd of 32

    Minnesota: nothing to show yet this season

  • Nashville: 0.01 more penalties drawn than taken per 6013th of 32

    Nashville: nothing to show yet this season

• Second chances
  One-and-doneCrashers

  • Minnesota: 10.6% of chances come from rebounds1st of 32

    Minnesota: nothing to show yet this season

  • Nashville: 10.4% of chances come from rebounds11th of 32

    Nashville: nothing to show yet this season

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Nashville is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (0 and 0 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Who Nashville is likely to send against whom

Nashville has not played at home yet this season, so there is no matching habit to show.

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

• Sources. Game data from the NHL; expected goals from this site’s own model, cross-checked against MoneyPuck.com.
• Early season. Minnesota has played 0 games and Nashville 0, so most numbers blend this season with last. The season switch at the top shows this season alone.
• Percentiles and ranks compare a team or player with the rest of the league: 90 means better than 90% of the league at that thing.
• Blind spots. Public game data doesn’t record passes before a shot, where defenders are standing, or rushes up the ice, so the site shows none of those.
• Hits, giveaways and takeaways depend on each arena’s scorer; anything built on them is arena-adjusted. How it works.
• Key players for each side are on the team pages.

Team pages: Minnesota Wild · Nashville Predators