1. The Kraken can’t afford to cough it up

   The Kraken give up more dangerous chances after losing the puck than most, and the Flames pounce.

   The call The Flames get at least their usual 7.5% of their 5-on-5 chances right after winning the puck.

   Calgary 9th for chances off turnovers (7.5% of their chances come right after winning the puck) · Seattle 25th for avoiding breakdowns

   Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 0 and 0 games this season

2. The Kraken’s defense joins the attack; the Flames’ stays home

   The Kraken are near the top of the league for shots from defensemen, at the active D end; the Flames are near the bottom of the league, at the forward-led end. Expect that gap to show.

   The call The Kraken’s defensemen take a bigger share of the team’s shot attempts than the Flames’.

   Shots from defensemen: Seattle 7th, Calgary 26th

   Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 0 and 0 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

How Seattle and Calgary play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 0 and 0 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 0 games for Seattle, 0 for Calgary. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

• Power kill
  BunkeredPredatory

  • Seattle: 0.5 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded32nd of 32

    Seattle: nothing to show yet this season

  • Calgary: 1.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded5th of 32

    Calgary: nothing to show yet this season

• Shots from defensemen
  Forward-ledActive D

  • Seattle: 36.3% of shot attempts come from defensemen7th of 32

    Seattle: nothing to show yet this season

  • Calgary: 32.3% of shot attempts come from defensemen26th of 32

    Calgary: nothing to show yet this season

• Discipline
  RecklessClean

  • Seattle: 0.04 more penalties drawn than taken per 6010th of 32

    Seattle: nothing to show yet this season

  • Calgary: 0.11 more penalties taken than drawn per 6027th of 32

    Calgary: nothing to show yet this season

• Quality allowed
  ExposedSheltered

  • Seattle: a 5.9% chance of scoring on the average shot against2nd of 32

    Seattle: nothing to show yet this season

  • Calgary: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against17th of 32

    Calgary: nothing to show yet this season

• Shot volume
  SelectiveRelentless

  • Seattle: 51.3 shot attempts per 6027th of 32

    Seattle: nothing to show yet this season

  • Calgary: 57.7 shot attempts per 6014th of 32

    Calgary: nothing to show yet this season

• Second chances
  One-and-doneCrashers

  • Seattle: 10.3% of chances come from rebounds12th of 32

    Seattle: nothing to show yet this season

  • Calgary: 10.1% of chances come from rebounds24th of 32

    Calgary: nothing to show yet this season

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Calgary is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (0 and 0 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Who Calgary is likely to send against whom

Calgary has not played at home yet this season, so there is no matching habit to show.

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

• Sources. Game data from the NHL; expected goals from this site’s own model, cross-checked against MoneyPuck.com.
• Early season. Seattle has played 0 games and Calgary 0, so most numbers blend this season with last. The season switch at the top shows this season alone.
• Percentiles and ranks compare a team or player with the rest of the league: 90 means better than 90% of the league at that thing.
• Blind spots. Public game data doesn’t record passes before a shot, where defenders are standing, or rushes up the ice, so the site shows none of those.
• Hits, giveaways and takeaways depend on each arena’s scorer; anything built on them is arena-adjusted. How it works.
• Key players for each side are on the team pages.

Team pages: Seattle Kraken · Calgary Flames