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NYR

New York Rangers

1-1-0

DET

Detroit Red Wings

0-0-0

Has last change

Friday, October 2

6:30 PM ET · Little Caesars Arena

The short version

Before the game

The Red Wings can’t afford to take penalties

The Rangers’ power play has a soft target in the Red Wings’ kill. The Rangers and the Red Wings sit at opposite ends for forecheck pressure. The two have been about even at controlling the play lately, the Rangers are playing for the second night in a row, and Detroit has home ice. Not by much, though: the Rangers can make it interesting if they pounce on loose pucks.

The Rangers’ power play has a soft target in the Red Wings’ kill. The Rangers and the Red Wings sit at opposite ends for forecheck pressure. The two have been about even at controlling the play lately, the Rangers are playing for the second night in a row, and Detroit has home ice. The Rangers’ best way to tip it is pouncing on loose pucks.

Who to watch

  • Still outUrho Vaakanainen hasn’t played yet this season.
  • Leads the wayAdam Fox leads the Rangers with two points.

  1. The Red Wings can’t afford to take penalties

    The Red Wings’ penalty kill is near the bottom of the league, and the Rangers’ power play is near the top of the league. Discipline matters more than usual for the Red Wings tonight.

    The call The Rangers’ power play creates at least their usual 7.8 expected goals per 60.

    NY Rangers 9th for power play (7.8 expected goals per 60) · Detroit 23rd for penalty kill

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 2 and 0 games this season

  2. Forecheck against patience

    On forecheck pressure, the Rangers is one of the league’s best and Detroit is one of the league’s worst. That’s about as far apart as two teams get.

    The call The Rangers put more forecheck pressure on than the Red Wings.

    Forecheck pressure: NY Rangers 2nd, Detroit 30th

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 2 and 0 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How NY Rangers and Detroit play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

New York RangersDetroit Red WingsLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 2 and 0 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 2 games for NY Rangers, 0 for Detroit. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • NY Rangers: 54.6 shot attempts per 6022nd of 32

      NY Rangers: 54.9 shot attempts per 6014th of 32

    • Detroit: 56.0 shot attempts per 6017th of 32

      Detroit: nothing to show yet this season

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • NY Rangers: a 6.1% chance of scoring on the average shot22nd of 32

      NY Rangers: a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot9th of 32

    • Detroit: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot27th of 32

      Detroit: nothing to show yet this season

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • NY Rangers: 10.1% of chances come from rebounds21st of 32

      NY Rangers: 14.1% of chances come from rebounds4th of 32

    • Detroit: 10.0% of chances come from rebounds24th of 32

      Detroit: nothing to show yet this season

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • NY Rangers: 7.5% of chances come right after a turnover11th of 32

      NY Rangers: 7.4% of chances come right after a turnover13th of 32

    • Detroit: 7.5% of chances come right after a turnover10th of 32

      Detroit: nothing to show yet this season

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • NY Rangers: 35.9% of shot attempts come from defensemen10th of 32

      NY Rangers: 33.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen11th of 32

    • Detroit: 33.8% of shot attempts come from defensemen19th of 32

      Detroit: nothing to show yet this season

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • NY Rangers: 31.5% of shots come from within 20 feet5th of 32

      NY Rangers: 39.3% of shots come from within 20 feet4th of 32

    • Detroit: 29.7% of shots come from within 20 feet23rd of 32

      Detroit: nothing to show yet this season

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • NY Rangers: 57.5 shot attempts allowed per 6018th of 32

      NY Rangers: 56.5 shot attempts allowed per 6014th of 32

    • Detroit: 59.1 shot attempts allowed per 6025th of 32

      Detroit: nothing to show yet this season

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • NY Rangers: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against10th of 32

      NY Rangers: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against15th of 32

    • Detroit: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against27th of 32

      Detroit: nothing to show yet this season

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • NY Rangers: 0.42 defensive breakdowns per 6020th of 32

      NY Rangers: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

    • Detroit: 0.44 defensive breakdowns per 6028th of 32

      Detroit: nothing to show yet this season

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • NY Rangers: +0.20 goals saved above expected per 604th of 32

      NY Rangers: +1.02 goals saved above expected per 606th of 32

    • Detroit: +0.12 goals saved above expected per 6013th of 32

      Detroit: nothing to show yet this season

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • NY Rangers: 79.4 shots per 60, both teams combined28th of 32

      NY Rangers: 75.0 shots per 60, both teams combined18th of 32

    • Detroit: 82.4 shots per 60, both teams combined16th of 32

      Detroit: nothing to show yet this season

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • NY Rangers: forecheck score 121 (100 is league average)2nd of 32NY Rangers: 26.8 forecheck plays recorded per 603rd of 32

      NY Rangers: forecheck score 112 (100 is league average)7th of 32NY Rangers: 30.7 forecheck plays recorded per 608th of 32

    • Detroit: forecheck score 84 (100 is league average)30th of 32Detroit: 18.4 forecheck plays recorded per 6031st of 32

      Detroit: nothing to show yet this season

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • NY Rangers: hit score 122 (100 is league average)2nd of 32NY Rangers: 32.0 hits recorded per 602nd of 32

      NY Rangers: hit score 100 (100 is league average)9th of 32NY Rangers: 36.4 hits recorded per 6010th of 32

    • Detroit: hit score 83 (100 is league average)29th of 32Detroit: 21.5 hits recorded per 6030th of 32

      Detroit: nothing to show yet this season

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • NY Rangers: 42.2% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six18th of 32

      NY Rangers: 44.6% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six8th of 32

    • Detroit: 42.3% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six15th of 32

      Detroit: nothing to show yet this season

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • NY Rangers: 7.8 expected goals per 60 on the power play9th of 32

      NY Rangers: 5.1 expected goals per 60 on the power play18th of 32

    • Detroit: 8.6 expected goals per 60 on the power play4th of 32

      Detroit: nothing to show yet this season

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • NY Rangers: 7.8 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded21st of 32

      NY Rangers: 2.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded6th of 32

    • Detroit: 7.9 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded23rd of 32

      Detroit: nothing to show yet this season

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • NY Rangers: 0.7 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded28th of 32

      NY Rangers: 0.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded19th of 32

    • Detroit: 0.8 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded17th of 32

      Detroit: nothing to show yet this season

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • NY Rangers: 0.28 more penalties taken than drawn per 6032nd of 32

      NY Rangers: 3.00 more penalties taken than drawn per 6024th of 32

    • Detroit: 0.25 more penalties drawn than taken per 601st of 32

      Detroit: nothing to show yet this season

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Detroit is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (2 and 0 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

New York Rangers

Detroit Red Wings

    Worth knowing

    • NY Rangers U. Vaakanainen has not played this season. He is one of their more valuable skaters.
    • NY Rangers M. Robertson has been a scratch all season. He is a top-four defenseman. A. Smits has taken his spot beside B. Schneider.

    Who Detroit is likely to send against whom

    Detroit has not played at home yet this season, so there is no matching habit to show.

    Special teams

    Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

    Show

    NY Rangers power play against Detroit penalty kill

    • NY Rangers power play

      7.8 expected goals per 60 · 9th of 32

    • Detroit penalty kill

      7.9 expected goals allowed per 60 · 23rd of 32

    NY Rangers power play

    PP163% of the time

    Creates 6.7 expected goals per 60

    • A. FoxQuarterback
    • M. ZibanejadTrigger
    • A. LafrenièreDistributor
    • P. Dorofeyev
    • J. MillerNet-front

    PP237% of the time

    Creates 6.4 expected goals per 60

    • S. DurziQuarterback
    • E. Tolvanen
    • G. PerreaultDistributor
    • W. CuylleTrigger
    • O. Bjorkstrand

     

    Where NY Rangers’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

    Detroit penalty kill

    No penalties killed in this stretch yet.

    Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

    Goaltending

    Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

    Showagainst

    I. Shesterkin52 starts · 1471 shots, this season and last

    +25.3 goals saved above expected

    Low-danger save %
    .976 751 shots
    Medium-danger save %
    .888 518 shots
    High-danger save %
    .738 202 shots
    Shots faced per 60
    28.1
    Defensive breakdowns per 60
    0.34
    Quality starts
    65%

    Helping, or hung out to dry?

    System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesI. Shesterkin
    Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
    • Stopping more than expected
      SieveWall
      • I. Shesterkin: +25.3 goals saved above expected in 52 starts
    • How busy he is
      QuietUnder siege
      • I. Shesterkin: 28.1 shots faced per 60
    • How dangerous the shots are
      ShelteredExposed
      • I. Shesterkin: the average shot he faces has a 6.9% chance of going in
    • Breakdowns in front of him
      RareConstant
      • I. Shesterkin: 0.34 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • Waiting between shots
      Steady workLong waits
      • I. Shesterkin: a typical wait of 71 seconds between shots
    • Night-to-night steadiness
      StreakySteady
      • I. Shesterkin: a quality start 65% of the time

    I. Shesterkin, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

    −3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

    I. Shesterkin2 starts · 46 shots, this season

    +2.0 goals saved above expected too few starts to rate

    Low-danger save %
    1.000 19 shots
    Medium-danger save %
    .917 24 shots
    High-danger save %
    .667 3 shots
    Shots faced per 60
    23.1
    Defensive breakdowns per 60
    0
    Quality starts
    100%

    Helping, or hung out to dry?

    System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesI. Shesterkin
    Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
    • Stopping more than expected
      SieveWall
      • I. Shesterkin: +2.0 goals saved above expected in 2 starts (too few starts to place)
    • How busy he is
      QuietUnder siege
      • I. Shesterkin: 23.1 shots faced per 60 (too few starts to place)
    • How dangerous the shots are
      ShelteredExposed
      • I. Shesterkin: the average shot he faces has a 6.5% chance of going in (too few starts to place)
    • Breakdowns in front of him
      RareConstant
      • I. Shesterkin: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60 (too few starts to place)
    • Waiting between shots
      Steady workLong waits
      • I. Shesterkin: a typical wait of 82 seconds between shots (too few starts to place)
    • Night-to-night steadiness
      StreakySteady
      • I. Shesterkin: a quality start 100% of the time (too few starts to place)

    I. Shesterkin, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

    −3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

    The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

    Where the goals come from

    How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

    Show goals
    NY RangersDetroitLeague average
    • Everyday even-strength play56.5%–%
    • Power play22.6%–%
    • Rebound6.7%–%
    • Empty net5.4%–%
    • Off a turnover2.9%–%
    • Goalie pulled2.5%–%
    • Shorthanded2.1%–%
    • Off a faceoff win1.3%–%

    239 NY Rangers goals and 0 Detroit goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

    • Everyday even-strength play60%–%
    • Power play20%–%
    • Rebound0%–%
    • Empty net20%–%
    • Off a turnover0%–%
    • Goalie pulled0%–%
    • Shorthanded0%–%
    • Off a faceoff win0%–%

    5 NY Rangers goals and 0 Detroit goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

    These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

    Data notes

    Team pages: New York Rangers · Detroit Red Wings