1. Swayman isn’t cursed against the Jets

   Since 2023-24, Swayman has been shaky against the Jets, well below his usual. Fans love a pattern like this, but we checked three seasons of them and they predicted nothing. Expect the usual Swayman.

   The call If Swayman starts, his save percentage lands closer to his usual .908 than to his .877 against the Jets.

   5 starts against Winnipeg: .877 save percentage · .908 against everyone else

   Goalie starts since 2023-24 · 5 against Winnipeg, 4,321 shots against everyone else

2. The Bruins roll four lines; the Jets lean on their top six

   The Bruins are one of the league’s best for depth, at the deep end; the Jets are one of the league’s worst, at the top-heavy end. Expect that gap to show.

   The call The Bruins spread their forward ice time deeper down the lineup than the Jets.

   Depth: Boston 2nd, Winnipeg 29th

   Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 1 and 0 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

How Boston and Winnipeg play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 1 and 0 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 1 games for Boston, 0 for Winnipeg. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

• Depth
  Top-heavyDeep

  • Boston: 43.7% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six2nd of 32

    Boston: 46.8% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six2nd of 32

  • Winnipeg: 40.4% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six29th of 32

    Winnipeg: nothing to show yet this season

• Power kill
  BunkeredPredatory

  • Boston: 0.6 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded30th of 32

    Boston: 0.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded20th of 32

  • Winnipeg: 1.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded4th of 32

    Winnipeg: nothing to show yet this season

• Discipline
  RecklessClean

  • Boston: 0.24 more penalties taken than drawn per 6031st of 32

    Boston: 0.00 more penalties drawn than taken per 6010th of 32

  • Winnipeg: 0.10 more penalties drawn than taken per 609th of 32

    Winnipeg: nothing to show yet this season

• Shots from defensemen
  Forward-ledActive D

  • Boston: 31.8% of shot attempts come from defensemen27th of 32

    Boston: 25.0% of shot attempts come from defensemen22nd of 32

  • Winnipeg: 36.5% of shot attempts come from defensemen6th of 32

    Winnipeg: nothing to show yet this season

• Goaltending
  SieveWall

  • Boston: +0.22 goals saved above expected per 602nd of 32

    Boston: +1.99 goals saved above expected per 601st of 32

  • Winnipeg: +0.06 goals saved above expected per 6023rd of 32

    Winnipeg: nothing to show yet this season

• Power play
  HarmlessLethal

  • Boston: 7.8 expected goals per 60 on the power play8th of 32

    Boston: 1.9 expected goals per 60 on the power play25th of 32

  • Winnipeg: 7.0 expected goals per 60 on the power play28th of 32

    Winnipeg: nothing to show yet this season

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Winnipeg is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (1 and 0 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Who Winnipeg is likely to send against whom

Winnipeg has not played at home yet this season, so there is no matching habit to show.

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

J. Swayman55 starts · 1596 shots, this season and last

+30.6 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %

.964 810 shots

Medium-danger save %

.893 534 shots

High-danger save %

.762 252 shots

Shots faced per 60

29.1

Defensive breakdowns per 60

0.31

Quality starts

73%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison

• Stopping more than expected
  SieveWall
  • J. Swayman: +30.6 goals saved above expected in 55 starts
• How busy he is
  QuietUnder siege
  • J. Swayman: 29.1 shots faced per 60
• How dangerous the shots are
  ShelteredExposed
  • J. Swayman: the average shot he faces has a 7.2% chance of going in
• Breakdowns in front of him
  RareConstant
  • J. Swayman: 0.31 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
• Waiting between shots
  Steady workLong waits
  • J. Swayman: a typical wait of 68 seconds between shots
• Night-to-night steadiness
  StreakySteady
  • J. Swayman: a quality start 73% of the time

J. Swayman, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

J. Swayman1 start · 24 shots, this season

+2.0 goals saved above expected too few starts to rate

Low-danger save %

1.000 13 shots

Medium-danger save %

1.000 9 shots

High-danger save %

1.000 2 shots

Shots faced per 60

24

Defensive breakdowns per 60

1

Quality starts

100%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison

• Stopping more than expected
  SieveWall
  • J. Swayman: +2.0 goals saved above expected in 1 start (too few starts to place)
• How busy he is
  QuietUnder siege
  • J. Swayman: 24 shots faced per 60 (too few starts to place)
• How dangerous the shots are
  ShelteredExposed
  • J. Swayman: the average shot he faces has a 6.4% chance of going in (too few starts to place)
• Breakdowns in front of him
  RareConstant
  • J. Swayman: 1 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60 (too few starts to place)
• Waiting between shots
  Steady workLong waits
  • J. Swayman: a typical wait of 42 seconds between shots (too few starts to place)
• Night-to-night steadiness
  StreakySteady
  • J. Swayman: a quality start 100% of the time (too few starts to place)

J. Swayman, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

• Sources. Game data from the NHL; expected goals from this site’s own model, cross-checked against MoneyPuck.com.
• Early season. Boston has played 1 games and Winnipeg 0, so most numbers blend this season with last. The season switch at the top shows this season alone.
• Percentiles and ranks compare a team or player with the rest of the league: 90 means better than 90% of the league at that thing.
• Blind spots. Public game data doesn’t record passes before a shot, where defenders are standing, or rushes up the ice, so the site shows none of those.
• Hits, giveaways and takeaways depend on each arena’s scorer; anything built on them is arena-adjusted. How it works.
• Key players for each side are on the team pages.

Team pages: Boston Bruins · Winnipeg Jets