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OTT

Ottawa Senators

0-0-0

TOR

Toronto Maple Leafs

1-1-0

Has last change

Saturday, October 3

7:00 PM ET · Scotiabank Arena

The short version

Before the game

Strength against strength

It’s strength against strength: the Senators for chance quality, the Maple Leafs at preventing dangerous shots. Don’t read much into Bobrovsky’s record against the Senators. Ottawa has controlled the play far better over recent games and Toronto has home ice. Toronto could still pull it off if they pounce on loose pucks, but they might need a miracle.

It’s strength against strength: the Senators for chance quality, the Maple Leafs at preventing dangerous shots. Don’t read much into Bobrovsky’s record against the Senators. Ottawa has controlled the play far better over recent games and Toronto has home ice. Anything short of a win would be a surprise, though Toronto can make a game of it if they pounce on loose pucks.

Who to watch

  • Owns themWilliam Nylander has a point in five straight games against Ottawa.
  • Leads the wayEaston Cowan leads the Maple Leafs with three points.

  1. Strength against strength

    The Senators are near the top of the league for chance quality, and the Maple Leafs are near the top of the league at preventing dangerous shots. Our lean: the Senators’ chance quality wins out.

    The call The Senators’ chances are more dangerous than the league average (a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot) against the Maple Leafs.

    Ottawa 6th for chance quality (a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot) · Toronto 7th for preventing dangerous shots

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 0 and 2 games this season

  2. Bobrovsky’s record against the Senators is a coincidence

    Since 2023-24, Bobrovsky has been a wall against the Senators, well above his usual. Fans love a pattern like this, but we checked three seasons of them and they predicted nothing. Expect the usual Bobrovsky.

    The call If Bobrovsky starts, his save percentage lands closer to his usual .900 than to his .935 against the Senators.

    9 starts against Ottawa: .935 save percentage · .900 against everyone else

    Goalie starts since 2023-24 · 9 against Ottawa, 3,966 shots against everyone else

  3. The Senators lock it down; the Maple Leafs don’t

    The Senators are one of the league’s best for shot suppression, at the stingy end; the Maple Leafs are the league’s worst, at the porous end. Expect that gap to show.

    The call The Senators allow fewer 5-on-5 shot attempts per 60 than the Maple Leafs.

    Shot suppression: Ottawa 2nd, Toronto 32nd

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 0 and 2 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Ottawa and Toronto play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Ottawa SenatorsToronto Maple LeafsLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 0 and 2 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 0 games for Ottawa, 2 for Toronto. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Ottawa: 58.5 shot attempts per 6013th of 32

      Ottawa: nothing to show yet this season

    • Toronto: 50.5 shot attempts per 6029th of 32

      Toronto: 49.5 shot attempts per 6023rd of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Ottawa: a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot6th of 32

      Ottawa: nothing to show yet this season

    • Toronto: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot20th of 32

      Toronto: a 5.5% chance of scoring on the average shot22nd of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Ottawa: 10.4% of chances come from rebounds9th of 32

      Ottawa: nothing to show yet this season

    • Toronto: 10.1% of chances come from rebounds19th of 32

      Toronto: 4.5% of chances come from rebounds20th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Ottawa: 7.4% of chances come right after a turnover14th of 32

      Ottawa: nothing to show yet this season

    • Toronto: 8.6% of chances come right after a turnover1st of 32

      Toronto: 2.9% of chances come right after a turnover25th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Ottawa: 36.0% of shot attempts come from defensemen8th of 32

      Ottawa: nothing to show yet this season

    • Toronto: 33.0% of shot attempts come from defensemen25th of 32

      Toronto: 28.2% of shot attempts come from defensemen23rd of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Ottawa: 30.7% of shots come from within 20 feet11th of 32

      Ottawa: nothing to show yet this season

    • Toronto: 30.7% of shots come from within 20 feet12th of 32

      Toronto: 37.0% of shots come from within 20 feet7th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Ottawa: 51.7 shot attempts allowed per 602nd of 32

      Ottawa: nothing to show yet this season

    • Toronto: 62.9 shot attempts allowed per 6032nd of 32

      Toronto: 59.6 shot attempts allowed per 6021st of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Ottawa: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against11th of 32

      Ottawa: nothing to show yet this season

    • Toronto: a 6.1% chance of scoring on the average shot against7th of 32

      Toronto: a 6.1% chance of scoring on the average shot against15th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Ottawa: 0.37 defensive breakdowns per 604th of 32

      Ottawa: nothing to show yet this season

    • Toronto: 0.42 defensive breakdowns per 6024th of 32

      Toronto: 0.69 defensive breakdowns per 6026th of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Ottawa: −0.06 goals saved above expected per 6031st of 32

      Ottawa: nothing to show yet this season

    • Toronto: +0.04 goals saved above expected per 6027th of 32

      Toronto: +0.66 goals saved above expected per 6012th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Ottawa: 79.5 shots per 60, both teams combined27th of 32

      Ottawa: nothing to show yet this season

    • Toronto: 84.2 shots per 60, both teams combined4th of 32

      Toronto: 81.5 shots per 60, both teams combined15th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Ottawa: forecheck score 115 (100 is league average)4th of 32Ottawa: 26.1 forecheck plays recorded per 604th of 32

      Ottawa: nothing to show yet this season

    • Toronto: forecheck score 92 (100 is league average)24th of 32Toronto: 22.2 forecheck plays recorded per 6013th of 32

      Toronto: forecheck score 78 (100 is league average)24th of 32Toronto: 22.8 forecheck plays recorded per 6020th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Ottawa: hit score 112 (100 is league average)6th of 32Ottawa: 29.5 hits recorded per 606th of 32

      Ottawa: nothing to show yet this season

    • Toronto: hit score 98 (100 is league average)18th of 32Toronto: 29.0 hits recorded per 607th of 32

      Toronto: hit score 86 (100 is league average)20th of 32Toronto: 35.4 hits recorded per 6011th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Ottawa: 42.2% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six17th of 32

      Ottawa: nothing to show yet this season

    • Toronto: 41.3% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six25th of 32

      Toronto: 41.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six26th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Ottawa: 7.6 expected goals per 60 on the power play11th of 32

      Ottawa: nothing to show yet this season

    • Toronto: 7.6 expected goals per 60 on the power play12th of 32

      Toronto: 7.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play14th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Ottawa: 6.8 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded3rd of 32

      Ottawa: nothing to show yet this season

    • Toronto: 8.3 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded30th of 32

      Toronto: 4.7 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded11th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Ottawa: 1.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded9th of 32

      Ottawa: nothing to show yet this season

    • Toronto: 0.8 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded20th of 32

      Toronto: 0.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded25th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Ottawa: 0.16 more penalties drawn than taken per 604th of 32

      Ottawa: nothing to show yet this season

    • Toronto: 0.22 more penalties taken than drawn per 6030th of 32

      Toronto: 0.50 more penalties drawn than taken per 6012th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Toronto is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (0 and 2 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Ottawa Senators

    Toronto Maple Leafs

    Who Toronto is likely to send against whom

    Each strip shows how one Toronto group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Ottawa’s, named in each box.

    Ottawa’s lines tonightL1 –L2 –L3 –L4 –

    Toronto forward lines against Ottawa forward lines

    • L1Roslovic · Matthews · MarchenkoOTT L134%OTT L226%OTT L318%OTT L422%
    • L2Tavares · Nylander · McKennaOTT L111%OTT L223%OTT L328%OTT L438%
    • L3Sissons · Paul · CowanOTT L137%OTT L224%OTT L325%OTT L414%
    • L4Blueger · Duhaime · GroulxOTT L127%OTT L227%OTT L337%OTT L49%

    Toronto defense pairs against Ottawa forward lines

    • P1Rielly · RaddyshOTT L127%OTT L227%OTT L320%OTT L426%
    • P2Tanev · McCabeOTT L136%OTT L213%OTT L330%OTT L420%
    • P3Ekman-Larsson · StecherOTT L119%OTT L236%OTT L328%OTT L417%

    Based on 2 Toronto home games this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

    Special teams

    Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

    Show

    Ottawa power play against Toronto penalty kill

    • Ottawa power play

      7.6 expected goals per 60 · 11th of 32

    • Toronto penalty kill

      8.3 expected goals allowed per 60 · 30th of 32

    Ottawa power play

     

    Toronto penalty kill

    Starts the kill

    Second wave

    Spot duty

    Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

    Goaltending

    Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

    Showagainst

    Helping, or hung out to dry?

    System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesS. BobrovskyA. Stolarz

    S. Bobrovsky50 starts · 1274 shots, this season and last

    −18.8 goals saved above expected

    Low-danger save %
    .968 665 shots
    Medium-danger save %
    .845 407 shots
    High-danger save %
    .639 202 shots
    Shots faced per 60
    24.9
    Defensive breakdowns per 60
    0.27
    Quality starts
    54%
    Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
    • Stopping more than expected
      SieveWall
      • S. Bobrovsky: −18.8 goals saved above expected in 50 starts
    • How busy he is
      QuietUnder siege
      • S. Bobrovsky: 24.9 shots faced per 60
    • How dangerous the shots are
      ShelteredExposed
      • S. Bobrovsky: the average shot he faces has a 7.0% chance of going in
    • Breakdowns in front of him
      RareConstant
      • S. Bobrovsky: 0.27 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • Waiting between shots
      Steady workLong waits
      • S. Bobrovsky: a typical wait of 82 seconds between shots
    • Night-to-night steadiness
      StreakySteady
      • S. Bobrovsky: a quality start 54% of the time

    S. Bobrovsky, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

    −3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

    Helping, or hung out to dry?

    System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesS. BobrovskyA. Stolarz

    S. Bobrovsky1 start · 24 shots, this season

    −0.3 goals saved above expected too few starts to rate

    Low-danger save %
    .933 15 shots
    Medium-danger save %
    1.000 5 shots
    High-danger save %
    .500 4 shots
    Shots faced per 60
    24.5
    Defensive breakdowns per 60
    1.02
    Quality starts
    0%
    Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
    • Stopping more than expected
      SieveWall
      • S. Bobrovsky: −0.3 goals saved above expected in 1 start (too few starts to place)
    • How busy he is
      QuietUnder siege
      • S. Bobrovsky: 24.5 shots faced per 60 (too few starts to place)
    • How dangerous the shots are
      ShelteredExposed
      • S. Bobrovsky: the average shot he faces has a 7.5% chance of going in (too few starts to place)
    • Breakdowns in front of him
      RareConstant
      • S. Bobrovsky: 1.02 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60 (too few starts to place)
    • Waiting between shots
      Steady workLong waits
      • S. Bobrovsky: a typical wait of 74 seconds between shots (too few starts to place)
    • Night-to-night steadiness
      StreakySteady
      • S. Bobrovsky: a quality start 0% of the time (too few starts to place)

    S. Bobrovsky, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

    −3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

    The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

    Where the goals come from

    How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

    Show goals
    OttawaTorontoLeague average
    • Everyday even-strength play–%57.4%
    • Power play–%15.6%
    • Rebound–%7.8%
    • Empty net–%7.4%
    • Off a turnover–%6.6%
    • Goalie pulled–%1.6%
    • Shorthanded–%2.3%
    • Off a faceoff win–%1.2%

    0 Ottawa goals and 256 Toronto goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

    • Everyday even-strength play–%75%
    • Power play–%25%
    • Rebound–%0%
    • Empty net–%0%
    • Off a turnover–%0%
    • Goalie pulled–%0%
    • Shorthanded–%0%
    • Off a faceoff win–%0%

    0 Ottawa goals and 4 Toronto goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

    These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

    Data notes

    Team pages: Ottawa Senators · Toronto Maple Leafs