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final

OTT4

Ottawa Senators

BOS1

Boston Bruins

Monday, October 5

Final · TD Garden

The short version

What happened

The Senators beat the Bruins

Tim Stützle scored twice, opening the scoring midway through the first.

The chances were closer than the score.

What it means

  • The previewThe preview’s call didn’t hold.
  • RecordThe Senators are now 2-0-0.

Our pre-game read

The win chance our model worked out before the game, kept off the site until now.

We gave Ottawa a 66% chance, and Ottawa delivered.

Two even teams on neutral ice50%
Home ice−4 points46%
Recent chances+19 points65%
Who's been playing+1 points66%
Back-to-back0 points66%
Our chance for Ottawa the morning of the game66%
Tonight's lineup+2 points
At puck drop, once the lineups were known69%

Recent chances: how much better each team’s chances have been than their opponents’ lately, with the latest games counting most. Who’s been playing: whether the players who dressed last time were stronger or weaker than the ones behind those recent games, so a star who is out or back counts straight away. Back-to-back: playing for the second night in a row. Tonight’s lineup: any change in who dressed since the last game. Only earlier games went into it, and the preview hinted at it in words without showing the number.

We gave Boston only a 34% chance, and it went the way we feared.

Two even teams on neutral ice50%
Home ice+4 points54%
Recent chances−19 points35%
Who's been playing−1 points34%
Back-to-back0 points34%
Our chance for Boston the morning of the game34%
Tonight's lineup−2 points
At puck drop, once the lineups were known31%

Recent chances: how much better each team’s chances have been than their opponents’ lately, with the latest games counting most. Who’s been playing: whether the players who dressed last time were stronger or weaker than the ones behind those recent games, so a star who is out or back counts straight away. Back-to-back: playing for the second night in a row. Tonight’s lineup: any change in who dressed since the last game. Only earlier games went into it, and the preview hinted at it in words without showing the number.

What the preview said, and what happened

Of the 1 calls the preview made, 0 held up, 0 partly did, and 1 didn’t happen.

  1. Before the game

    The Senators’ power play has a target

    The Senators’ power play is near the top of the league, and the Bruins’ kill is near the bottom of the league. Every trip to the box hurts the Bruins more than most.

    The call The Senators’ power play creates at least their usual 7.8 expected goals per 60.

    Ottawa 9th for power play (7.8 expected goals per 60) · Boston 27th for penalty kill

    Can’t judge

    Ottawa had only 0:15 of power-play time, too little to judge.

  2. Before the game

    Two of the league’s heaviest-hitting teams

    The Senators and the Bruins are both among the league’s heaviest hitters, even after adjusting for each arena’s scorer. Keep your head up.

    The call The two teams’ combined hit score reaches their usual 110.

    Hit score (100 is league average): Ottawa 114 (3rd), Boston 106 (10th)

    Can’t judge

    The game was rarely close, and hit rates are only counted in close games, so this one can’t be judged.

  3. Before the game

    The Senators hunt better looks than the Bruins

    On shot quality, Ottawa is the league’s best and Boston is one of the league’s worst. That’s about as far apart as two teams get.

    The call The Senators’ shots are more dangerous on average than the Bruins’.

    Shot quality: Ottawa 1st, Boston 28th

    Didn’t happen

    On how dangerous the average shot was, Ottawa had 5.3% a shot and Boston 7.8% a shot. Coming in, Ottawa was at 7.0% a shot and Boston at 5.9% a shot.

    OTT 7.0% a shot · BOS 5.9% a shot
    Coming in
    OTT 5.3% a shot · BOS 7.8% a shot
    In this game

Each call is checked by a rule set before the game. Held up: the team reached their usual level. Partly: they fell short of their usual level but still beat the league average. When a call says one team will come out ahead, held up means they won by at least half their usual gap, and partly means they won by less. One game is a small sample, so a miss doesn’t mean the preview was wrong about the team.

Read the full preview as it stood at puck drop.

This season so far: 87 held up, 11 partly, 62 didn’t happen, out of 160 graded calls. See the track record.

Run it back

We replayed this game’s chances 100 times. Here is how often each team came out ahead.

Too close to call on chances

Played out 100 times with these chances, Ottawa wins 53 and Boston 47, close to a coin flip.

53%
Ottawa: 43 wins, plus half of the 20 ties
47%
Boston: 36 wins, plus half of the 20 ties

Ottawa had 36 chances worth 2.5 expected goals. Boston had 33 chances worth 2.3 expected goals.

How it works: every shot in regulation that was on target or missed the net goes in as often as our expected-goals model says it should, and the game is played out 100 times that way. A rebound scramble counts as one chance, and empty-net shots are left out. A replay tied after regulation counts as half a win each, since overtime and shootouts are close to coin flips.

It doesn’t know about goalies, finishing skill or passes before a shot. It also favours the team that was chasing, because a team with a lead tends to sit back. Over the last three seasons, teams it gave 80% or more won about two games in three.

What the preview didn’t see coming

The parts of this game furthest from how these teams usually play, biggest first.

Broke the pattern: a team did the opposite of their usual habit. Further than usual: a usual habit, taken much further. Closer than usual: a usual strength or weakness that mostly disappeared. Out of character: a usually average team, far from average. Each is measured against the teams’ numbers before the game.

The numbers

How the game went, beyond the score.

OttawaBoston
Goals41
Shots on goal2419
Expected goals2.52.3
Shot attempts at 5-on-54434
Power plays0 of 30 of 4

Swing

How far each player swung tonight’s result, for his team or against it.

The biggest swings: T. Stützle +1.8, M. Amadio +1.0 and S. Pinto +0.7.

Showhighlighting

The number is roughly in goals: what he added to his team tonight, or cost it. Tap a player to see where it came from. The label beside it is his report card from “Did they do their job?” below; L1 to L4 and P1 to P3 are tonight’s lines and pairs.

How Swing is worked outHide how Swing is worked out

Scoresheet: each goal is shared 40% to the scorer, 35% to the first assist and 25% to the second, plus a quarter of the expected goals of his own shots. A penalty drawn adds 0.16 and one taken costs 0.16, what a power play is worth on average; each faceoff won or lost moves it by 0.006.

5-on-5 counts most: expected goals for minus against with him on, half compared with league average (adjusted for score and venue) and half compared with his own team when he was on the bench, plus a smaller amount for actual goals. A player on a losing team can score well if his line held its own. Special teams: power-play and penalty-kill time compared with a league-average unit.

Company kept (counted inside 5-on-5): from every player’s 5-on-5 impact over the two seasons before, a player out with strong linemates against weak opponents gives a little back, and the reverse earns a little. Goalies: goals saved above expected. Empty-net shots and shootouts are left out. One game is a small sample: this says who swung this result, not who is better.

Did they do their job?

What each player is relied on for or better than most at, and whether he delivered.

Show
  • J. SpenceOff night
    Defense
    24:49
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    +1
    xGF–xGA
    1.2–1.2
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    2
    • ✓Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-53.4typical 2.9
    • ✕Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-53.3typical 1.9
    • ✕Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.02typical 0.06
  • T. ChabotMixed night
    Defense
    24:13
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    +1
    xGF–xGA
    1.2–1.2
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    1
    • ✓Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill0.0typical 6.2
    • ✕Blocking shots Better than mostblocked shots1typical 2
    • ✓Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-53.5typical 2.7
  • T. KlevenOff night
    Defense
    23:21
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    +2
    xGF–xGA
    0.5–0.4
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    2
    • ✓Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill4.5typical 5.8
    • ✕Hitting Better than mosthits0typical 2
  • N. MatinpaloDid his job
    Defense
    20:15
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    +2
    xGF–xGA
    0.7–0.4
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill4.5typical 7.0
  • T. Stützle★ Huge night

    2 goals (one shorthanded, one at even strength), 1 assist. A strong game, even though his usual jobs were quieter.

    Center
    18:56
    G
    2
    A
    1
    +/−
    +3
    xGF–xGA
    0.6–0.4
    Shots
    3
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    1
    • ✓Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play8.4typical 7.1
    • ✓Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill4.7typical 6.1
    • ✕Faceoffs Better than mostfaceoffs won11 of 22typical 55%
  • D. CozensDid his job
    Center
    18:38
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.6–0.7
    Shots
    4
    Hits
    5
    Blocks
    1
    • ✓Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play9.3typical 7.0
    • ✓Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.31typical 0.16
    • ✓Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-58typical 4
Show 10 more Ottawa playersHide the other Ottawa players
  • S. PintoDid his job
    Center
    17:56
    G
    0
    A
    1
    +/−
    +1
    xGF–xGA
    0.6–0.3
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    6
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill0.7typical 6.1
    • ✓Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-51.4typical 2.0
    • ✓Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-54typical 3
  • W. EklundDid his job
    Left wing
    17:53
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    1.0–0.8
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.41typical 0.18
    • –Power play Relied onToo little time to judge
  • M. AmadioBig night

    A goal, 1 assist.

    Right wing
    15:44
    G
    1
    A
    1
    +/−
    +3
    xGF–xGA
    0.4–0.3
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    2
    • ✓Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill4.7typical 5.9
    • ✓Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-51.3typical 2.0
  • D. BathersonDid his job
    Right wing
    15:11
    G
    1
    A
    0
    +/−
    +1
    xGF–xGA
    0.4–0.4
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    3
    Blocks
    1
    • ✓Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play8.4typical 7.3
    • ✓Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.21typical 0.12
  • C. YakemchukOff night
    Defense
    14:58
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.1–0.2
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play8.3typical 6.8
    • ✕Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.02typical 0.03
  • C. GirouxDid his job
    Right wing
    14:03
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.0–0.2
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play8.5typical 6.5
    • ✓Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-51.3typical 2.0
    • –Kills penalties Relied onToo little time to judge
  • W. FoegeleDid his job
    Left wing
    12:13
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    +2
    xGF–xGA
    0.4–0.4
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    2
    Blocks
    1
    • ✓Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill0.0typical 6.3
    • ✓Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-52.1typical 2.1
  • N. CousinsMixed night
    Center
    10:58
    G
    0
    A
    1
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.5–0.7
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    4
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-54.2typical 1.9
    • ✓Hitting Better than mosthits4typical 2
  • C. CrottyOff night
    Defense
    10:56
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.1–0.3
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-50.6typical 2.5
    • –Kills penalties Relied onToo little time to judge
  • S. HallidayOff night
    Center
    9:39
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    0.2–0.6
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    1
    • ✕Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-51typical 2
    • ✕Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.00typical 0.08
    • –Power play Relied onToo little time to judge
How the cards are gradedHide how the cards are graded

✓ a typical night for him in the ice time he got (the level he reaches in about half his games). ≈ beat an average player at his position, a typical power play or kill, or his own team with him off the ice. ✕ neither. Power-play and penalty-kill results count half, since five players share them.

Huge night: a hat trick or four or more points. Big night: two or more points, or a goal from a player who scores in fewer than one game in five on top of doing his jobs. Rough night: no points while the other team had 70% or more of the 5-on-5 chances with him on (xGF–xGA). Plus-minus never sets the level. A shorthanded goal counts as two points. Points never fully cover for jobs that went badly: with his jobs off, a huge night reads big and a big night reads mixed.

Judged only from games before this one; 5-on-5 rates adjusted for score and venue. One game is a small sample: even a strong player misses a typical night about half the time. Both teams: 34 ✓, 4 ≈, 20 ✕.

Somewhere new

Things they aren’t known for, far beyond their usual pace.

A night this big would happen less than one game in fifty at his usual pace, and is at least twice what an average player at his position would manage.

In net

Each goalie’s night: the goals he stopped beyond what the shots were worth, and the dangerous and routine saves.

  • L. UllmarkBig night

    A shutout, 10 saves on 10 shots, +1.4 goals saved above expected.

    Goalie
    40:00
    Shots
    10
    Saves
    10
    Sv%
    1.000
    xGA
    1.4
    GSAx
    +1.4
    Dangerous
    0/0
    • ✓Saving more than expected goals saved above expected+1.4typical +0.1
    • –Dangerous shots Too few shots to judge
    • ✓Routine shots saves on shots under a 15% chance10 of 10typically saves 10 of 10
  • S. ErssonOff night
    Goalie
    20:00
    Shots
    9
    Saves
    8
    Sv%
    .889
    xGA
    0.8
    GSAx
    −0.2
    Dangerous
    1/1
    • –Saving more than expected Too few shots to judge
    • –Dangerous shots Too few shots to judge
    • ✕Routine shots saves on shots under a 15% chance7 of 8typically saves 8 of 8
  • J. SwaymanOff night
    Goalie
    60:00
    Shots
    24
    Saves
    20
    Sv%
    .833
    xGA
    2.5
    GSAx
    −1.6
    Dangerous
    2/6
    • ✕Saving more than expected goals saved above expected-1.5typical +0.9
    • ✕Dangerous shots saves on shots with a 15%+ chance2 of 6typically saves 5 of 6
    • ✓Routine shots saves on shots under a 15% chance18 of 18typically saves 17 of 18

Every goalie has the same three jobs, judged against his own earlier starts (✓) and an average goalie (≈). Huge night: a shutout on 25 or more shots, or 3+ goals saved above expected. Big night: any other shutout, or 1.5+. Rough night: 2+ goals worse than expected, or pulled early after three or more.

Empty-net shots are left out. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie beaten by cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really was.

Team pages: Ottawa Senators · Boston Bruins