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CGY

Calgary Flames

0-1-0

VAN

Vancouver Canucks

1-1-0

Has last change

Saturday, October 3

10:00 PM ET · Rogers Arena

The short version

Before the game

Round two in Vancouver

The Canucks won the first meeting this season, 4-1 in Vancouver. The Flames come in at 0-2-0, the Canucks at 2-1-0. The two have been about even at controlling the play lately and Vancouver has home ice. Not by much, though: Calgary can make it interesting if they keep the shots coming.

The Canucks won the first meeting this season, 4-1 in Vancouver. The Flames come in at 0-2-0, the Canucks at 2-1-0. The two have been about even at controlling the play lately and Vancouver has home ice. Calgary can tip it if they keep the shots coming.

The Flames and the Canucks sit at opposite ends for shot volume.

Who to watch

  • MissingJake DeBrusk has missed the Canucks’ latest game.
  • Leads the wayRyan Strome leads the Flames with one point.

  1. The Flames will outshoot the Canucks

    On shot volume, Calgary is around the middle of the league and Vancouver is one of the league’s worst. That’s about as far apart as two teams get.

    The call The Flames take more 5-on-5 shot attempts per 60 than the Canucks.

    Shot volume: Calgary 12th, Vancouver 30th

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 1 and 2 games this season

  2. Good looks against hopeful ones

    The Canucks are around the middle of the league for shot quality, at the dangerous end; the Flames are one of the league’s worst, at the hopeful end. Expect that gap to show.

    The call The Canucks’ shots are more dangerous on average than the Flames’.

    Shot quality: Vancouver 15th, Calgary 31st

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 1 and 2 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Calgary and Vancouver play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Calgary FlamesVancouver CanucksLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 1 and 2 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 1 games for Calgary, 2 for Vancouver. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Calgary: 58.8 shot attempts per 6012th of 32

      Calgary: 62.7 shot attempts per 608th of 32

    • Vancouver: 48.6 shot attempts per 6030th of 32

      Vancouver: 44.0 shot attempts per 6028th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Calgary: a 5.9% chance of scoring on the average shot31st of 32

      Calgary: a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot12th of 32

    • Vancouver: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot15th of 32

      Vancouver: a 7.5% chance of scoring on the average shot7th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Calgary: 10.0% of chances come from rebounds25th of 32

      Calgary: 3.2% of chances come from rebounds23rd of 32

    • Vancouver: 10.6% of chances come from rebounds2nd of 32

      Vancouver: 18.0% of chances come from rebounds6th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Calgary: 7.6% of chances come right after a turnover7th of 32

      Calgary: 15.5% of chances come right after a turnover5th of 32

    • Vancouver: 6.8% of chances come right after a turnover28th of 32

      Vancouver: 23.4% of chances come right after a turnover1st of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Calgary: 32.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen26th of 32

      Calgary: 35.1% of shot attempts come from defensemen12th of 32

    • Vancouver: 30.8% of shot attempts come from defensemen30th of 32

      Vancouver: 27.4% of shot attempts come from defensemen26th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Calgary: 29.1% of shots come from within 20 feet27th of 32

      Calgary: 37.8% of shots come from within 20 feet6th of 32

    • Vancouver: 30.4% of shots come from within 20 feet15th of 32

      Vancouver: 36.7% of shots come from within 20 feet8th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Calgary: 60.3 shot attempts allowed per 6028th of 32

      Calgary: 64.2 shot attempts allowed per 6027th of 32

    • Vancouver: 60.8 shot attempts allowed per 6029th of 32

      Vancouver: 59.6 shot attempts allowed per 6022nd of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Calgary: a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot against21st of 32

      Calgary: a 7.7% chance of scoring on the average shot against28th of 32

    • Vancouver: a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot against29th of 32

      Vancouver: a 5.9% chance of scoring on the average shot against13th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Calgary: 0.47 defensive breakdowns per 6030th of 32

      Calgary: 1.24 defensive breakdowns per 6028th of 32

    • Vancouver: 0.38 defensive breakdowns per 606th of 32

      Vancouver: 0.62 defensive breakdowns per 6024th of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Calgary: +0.07 goals saved above expected per 6023rd of 32

      Calgary: −1.90 goals saved above expected per 6027th of 32

    • Vancouver: −0.06 goals saved above expected per 6032nd of 32

      Vancouver: −3.48 goals saved above expected per 6029th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Calgary: 84.0 shots per 60, both teams combined6th of 32

      Calgary: 91.6 shots per 60, both teams combined2nd of 32

    • Vancouver: 81.5 shots per 60, both teams combined20th of 32

      Vancouver: 73.4 shots per 60, both teams combined22nd of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Calgary: forecheck score 89 (100 is league average)27th of 32Calgary: 20.1 forecheck plays recorded per 6026th of 32

      Calgary: forecheck score 75 (100 is league average)25th of 32Calgary: 19.8 forecheck plays recorded per 6027th of 32

    • Vancouver: forecheck score 98 (100 is league average)17th of 32Vancouver: 22.1 forecheck plays recorded per 6014th of 32

      Vancouver: forecheck score 91 (100 is league average)18th of 32Vancouver: 24.6 forecheck plays recorded per 6017th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Calgary: hit score 88 (100 is league average)25th of 32Calgary: 23.3 hits recorded per 6025th of 32

      Calgary: hit score 55 (100 is league average)30th of 32Calgary: 18.8 hits recorded per 6029th of 32

    • Vancouver: hit score 82 (100 is league average)30th of 32Vancouver: 22.2 hits recorded per 6028th of 32

      Vancouver: hit score 44 (100 is league average)31st of 32Vancouver: 15.9 hits recorded per 6031st of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Calgary: 43.4% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six5th of 32

      Calgary: 47.2% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six1st of 32

    • Vancouver: 43.4% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six4th of 32

      Vancouver: 44.6% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six10th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Calgary: 6.6 expected goals per 60 on the power play30th of 32

      Calgary: 1.9 expected goals per 60 on the power play31st of 32

    • Vancouver: 7.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play22nd of 32

      Vancouver: 3.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play26th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Calgary: 7.7 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded20th of 32

      Calgary: 7.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded18th of 32

    • Vancouver: 8.2 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded28th of 32

      Vancouver: 9.8 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded26th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Calgary: 1.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded5th of 32

      Calgary: 0.9 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded11th of 32

    • Vancouver: 0.9 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded12th of 32

      Vancouver: 0.5 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded15th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Calgary: 0.17 more penalties taken than drawn per 6028th of 32

      Calgary: 4.00 more penalties taken than drawn per 6030th of 32

    • Vancouver: 0.02 more penalties taken than drawn per 6019th of 32

      Vancouver: 1.97 more penalties taken than drawn per 6028th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Vancouver is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (1 and 2 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Calgary Flames

Vancouver Canucks

Who Vancouver is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Vancouver group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Calgary’s, named in each box.

Calgary’s lines tonightL1 Strome · Sharangovich · ZaryL2 Backlund · Farabee · HonzekL3 Frost · Coronato · GridinL4 Pospisil · Klapka · Tsyplakov

Vancouver forward lines against Calgary forward lines

  • L1Boeser · Rossi · OhgrenCGY L116%CGY L235%CGY L338%CGY L412%
  • L2Karlsson · O'Connor · SassonCGY L165%CGY L211%CGY L312%CGY L412%
  • L3DeBrusk · Pettersson · LekkerimäkiCGY L125%CGY L244%CGY L322%CGY L48%
  • L4Gallagher · Cotter · BainsCGY L17%CGY L216%CGY L328%CGY L448%

Vancouver defense pairs against Calgary forward lines

  • P1Oleksiak · WillanderCGY L128%CGY L238%CGY L319%CGY L415%
  • P2Hronek · BuiumCGY L149%CGY L217%CGY L317%CGY L416%
  • P3Schenn · PetterssonCGY L16%CGY L25%CGY L358%CGY L432%

Based on 1 Vancouver home game this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Calgary power play against Vancouver penalty kill

  • Calgary power play

    6.6 expected goals per 60 · 30th of 32

  • Vancouver penalty kill

    8.2 expected goals allowed per 60 · 28th of 32

Calgary power play

PP164% of the time

Creates 6.6 expected goals per 60

  • Z. ParekhQuarterback
  • M. FrostDistributor
  • M. CoronatoTrigger
  • M. Gridin
  • J. FarabeeNet-front

PP236% of the time

Creates 6.6 expected goals per 60

  • S. NemecQuarterback
  • Y. SharangovichTrigger
  • C. ZaryNet-front
  • M. Tsyplakov
  • R. Strome

 

Where Calgary’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Vancouver penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

D. Wolf53 starts · 1591 shots, this season and last

0.0 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.975 791 shots
Medium-danger save %
.854 588 shots
High-danger save %
.726 212 shots
Shots faced per 60
29.7
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.37
Quality starts
55%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesD. WolfK. LankinenL. Meriläinen

K. Lankinen46 starts · 1343 shots, this season and last

−22.6 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.961 643 shots
Medium-danger save %
.856 494 shots
High-danger save %
.626 206 shots
Shots faced per 60
30
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.4
Quality starts
43%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • D. Wolf: 0.0 goals saved above expected in 53 starts
    • K. Lankinen: −22.6 goals saved above expected in 46 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • D. Wolf: 29.7 shots faced per 60
    • K. Lankinen: 30 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • D. Wolf: the average shot he faces has a 7.0% chance of going in
    • K. Lankinen: the average shot he faces has a 7.5% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • D. Wolf: 0.37 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • K. Lankinen: 0.4 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • D. Wolf: a typical wait of 69 seconds between shots
    • K. Lankinen: a typical wait of 65 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • D. Wolf: a quality start 55% of the time
    • K. Lankinen: a quality start 43% of the time

D. Wolf, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

K. Lankinen, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

D. Wolf1 start · 32 shots, this season

−1.9 goals saved above expected too few starts to rate

Low-danger save %
.875 8 shots
Medium-danger save %
.889 18 shots
High-danger save %
.500 6 shots
Shots faced per 60
32.1
Defensive breakdowns per 60
1
Quality starts
0%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesD. WolfK. LankinenL. Meriläinen

K. Lankinen1 start · 58 shots, this season

−7.0 goals saved above expected too few starts to rate

Low-danger save %
.840 25 shots
Medium-danger save %
.875 16 shots
High-danger save %
.588 17 shots
Shots faced per 60
38.6
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
0%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • D. Wolf: −1.9 goals saved above expected in 1 start (too few starts to place)
    • K. Lankinen: −7.0 goals saved above expected in 1 start (too few starts to place)
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • D. Wolf: 32.1 shots faced per 60 (too few starts to place)
    • K. Lankinen: 38.6 shots faced per 60 (too few starts to place)
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • D. Wolf: the average shot he faces has a 8.9% chance of going in (too few starts to place)
    • K. Lankinen: the average shot he faces has a 7.8% chance of going in (too few starts to place)
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • D. Wolf: 1 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60 (too few starts to place)
    • K. Lankinen: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60 (too few starts to place)
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • D. Wolf: a typical wait of 64 seconds between shots (too few starts to place)
    • K. Lankinen: a typical wait of 48 seconds between shots (too few starts to place)
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • D. Wolf: a quality start 0% of the time (too few starts to place)
    • K. Lankinen: a quality start 0% of the time (too few starts to place)

D. Wolf, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

K. Lankinen, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
CalgaryVancouverLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play57.2%51.6%
  • Power play17.3%23.8%
  • Rebound7.2%8.1%
  • Empty net6.2%3.6%
  • Off a turnover3.8%4%
  • Goalie pulled1%3.1%
  • Shorthanded4.8%3.6%
  • Off a faceoff win2.4%2.2%

208 Calgary goals and 223 Vancouver goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play100%53.8%
  • Power play0%15.4%
  • Rebound0%15.4%
  • Empty net0%0%
  • Off a turnover0%7.7%
  • Goalie pulled0%0%
  • Shorthanded0%7.7%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

1 Calgary goals and 13 Vancouver goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Calgary Flames · Vancouver Canucks