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CGY

Calgary Flames

0-2-0

SEA

Seattle Kraken

1-1-0

Has last change

Sunday, October 4

8:00 PM ET · Climate Pledge Arena

The short version

Before the game

Wolf isn’t cursed against the Kraken

The Kraken have won all two meetings this season. The Kraken are 2-1-0. The Flames haven’t won in three. Seattle has had more of the chances over recent games and has home ice. Calgary can make it interesting if they keep the shots coming.

The Kraken have won all two meetings this season. The Kraken are 2-1-0. The Flames haven’t won in three. Seattle has had more of the chances over recent games and has home ice. Calgary can pull it off if they keep the shots coming.

Don’t read much into Wolf’s record against the Kraken. The Flames shoot a lot, and the Kraken give up plenty.

Who to watch

  • Owns themChandler Stephenson has a point in six straight games against Calgary.
  • Still outHunter Brzustewicz hasn’t played yet this season.
  • Still outJonathan Huberdeau hasn’t played yet this season.

  1. Wolf isn’t cursed against the Kraken

    Wolf has been shaky against the Kraken since 2023-24, well below his usual. It looks like a pattern, but across three seasons a goalie’s record against one team told us nothing about the next meeting. Expect the usual Wolf.

    The call If Wolf starts, his save percentage lands closer to his usual .906 than to his .855 against the Kraken.

    6 starts against Seattle: .855 save percentage · .906 against everyone else

    Goalie starts since 2023-24 · 6 against Seattle, 3,405 shots against everyone else

  2. The Flames should pile up the shots

    Seattle has been giving up shots all season, and the Flames rarely pass one up.

    The call The Flames take at least their usual 62.5 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5.

    Calgary 5th for shot volume (62.5 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5) · Seattle 30th for shot suppression

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 2 and 2 games this season

  3. The Kraken can’t afford to cough it up

    The Flames turn stolen pucks into chances, and the Kraken are near the bottom of the league at avoiding breakdowns. A sloppy pass or two could cost the Kraken.

    The call The Flames get at least their usual 7.6% of their 5-on-5 chances right after winning the puck.

    Calgary 8th for chances off turnovers (7.6% of their chances come right after winning the puck) · Seattle 26th for avoiding breakdowns

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 2 and 2 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Calgary and Seattle play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Calgary FlamesSeattle KrakenLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 2 and 2 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 2 games for Calgary, 2 for Seattle. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Calgary: 62.5 shot attempts per 605th of 32

      Calgary: 71.4 shot attempts per 603rd of 32

    • Seattle: 51.7 shot attempts per 6028th of 32

      Seattle: 52.6 shot attempts per 6022nd of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Calgary: a 5.7% chance of scoring on the average shot32nd of 32

      Calgary: a 5.2% chance of scoring on the average shot28th of 32

    • Seattle: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot17th of 32

      Seattle: a 7.2% chance of scoring on the average shot8th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Calgary: 10.0% of chances come from rebounds28th of 32

      Calgary: 1.9% of chances come from rebounds30th of 32

    • Seattle: 10.3% of chances come from rebounds13th of 32

      Seattle: 3.5% of chances come from rebounds29th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Calgary: 7.6% of chances come right after a turnover8th of 32

      Calgary: 9.7% of chances come right after a turnover12th of 32

    • Seattle: 7.5% of chances come right after a turnover11th of 32

      Seattle: 12.4% of chances come right after a turnover9th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Calgary: 33.9% of shot attempts come from defensemen21st of 32

      Calgary: 38.3% of shot attempts come from defensemen5th of 32

    • Seattle: 36.1% of shot attempts come from defensemen8th of 32

      Seattle: 35.5% of shot attempts come from defensemen14th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Calgary: 28.8% of shots come from within 20 feet28th of 32

      Calgary: 30.7% of shots come from within 20 feet18th of 32

    • Seattle: 29.6% of shots come from within 20 feet25th of 32

      Seattle: 39.0% of shots come from within 20 feet2nd of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Calgary: 60.1 shot attempts allowed per 6027th of 32

      Calgary: 61.2 shot attempts allowed per 6023rd of 32

    • Seattle: 61.9 shot attempts allowed per 6030th of 32

      Seattle: 61.0 shot attempts allowed per 6022nd of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Calgary: a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot against20th of 32

      Calgary: a 7.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against30th of 32

    • Seattle: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against6th of 32

      Seattle: a 7.1% chance of scoring on the average shot against28th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Calgary: 0.46 defensive breakdowns per 6030th of 32

      Calgary: 0.64 defensive breakdowns per 6024th of 32

    • Seattle: 0.44 defensive breakdowns per 6026th of 32

      Seattle: 0.64 defensive breakdowns per 6023rd of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Calgary: +0.11 goals saved above expected per 6014th of 32

      Calgary: −1.01 goals saved above expected per 6026th of 32

    • Seattle: +0.12 goals saved above expected per 6012th of 32

      Seattle: +1.49 goals saved above expected per 604th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Calgary: 84.4 shots per 60, both teams combined6th of 32

      Calgary: 90.7 shots per 60, both teams combined4th of 32

    • Seattle: 82.0 shots per 60, both teams combined17th of 32

      Seattle: 80.1 shots per 60, both teams combined20th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Calgary: forecheck score 96 (100 is league average)18th of 32Calgary: 21.8 forecheck plays recorded per 6018th of 32

      Calgary: forecheck score 100 (100 is league average)16th of 32Calgary: 25.6 forecheck plays recorded per 6013th of 32

    • Seattle: forecheck score 85 (100 is league average)27th of 32Seattle: 19.1 forecheck plays recorded per 6028th of 32

      Seattle: forecheck score 77 (100 is league average)27th of 32Seattle: 21.0 forecheck plays recorded per 6025th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Calgary: hit score 100 (100 is league average)15th of 32Calgary: 26.2 hits recorded per 6016th of 32

      Calgary: hit score 102 (100 is league average)15th of 32Calgary: 31.4 hits recorded per 6016th of 32

    • Seattle: hit score 87 (100 is league average)28th of 32Seattle: 22.9 hits recorded per 6027th of 32

      Seattle: hit score 80 (100 is league average)23rd of 32Seattle: 25.4 hits recorded per 6024th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Calgary: 43.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six9th of 32

      Calgary: 44.6% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six6th of 32

    • Seattle: 42.5% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six14th of 32

      Seattle: 42.9% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six16th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Calgary: 6.6 expected goals per 60 on the power play30th of 32

      Calgary: 3.4 expected goals per 60 on the power play30th of 32

    • Seattle: 7.1 expected goals per 60 on the power play25th of 32

      Seattle: 6.7 expected goals per 60 on the power play15th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Calgary: 7.6 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded19th of 32

      Calgary: 5.1 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded9th of 32

    • Seattle: 8.2 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded29th of 32

      Seattle: 5.0 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded8th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Calgary: 1.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded7th of 32

      Calgary: 0.7 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded13th of 32

    • Seattle: 0.5 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded32nd of 32

      Seattle: 0.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded26th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Calgary: 0.22 more penalties taken than drawn per 6030th of 32

      Calgary: 3.50 more penalties taken than drawn per 6032nd of 32

    • Seattle: 0.09 more penalties drawn than taken per 6010th of 32

      Seattle: 1.50 more penalties drawn than taken per 604th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Seattle is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (2 and 2 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Calgary Flames

Seattle Kraken

Worth knowing

  • Calgary H. Brzustewicz has not played this season.
  • Calgary J. Huberdeau has not played this season. He is a top-six forward.

Who Seattle is likely to send against whom

Seattle has not played at home yet this season, so there is no matching habit to show.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Calgary power play against Seattle penalty kill

  • Calgary power play

    6.6 expected goals per 60 · 30th of 32

  • Seattle penalty kill

    8.2 expected goals allowed per 60 · 29th of 32

Calgary power play

PP165% of the time

Creates 6.6 expected goals per 60

  • Z. ParekhQuarterback
  • M. FrostDistributor
  • M. CoronatoTrigger
  • J. FarabeeNet-front
  • M. Gridin

PP235% of the time

Creates 6.3 expected goals per 60

  • S. NemecQuarterback
  • M. Tsyplakov
  • Y. SharangovichTrigger
  • R. Strome
  • B. Othmann

 

Where Calgary’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Seattle penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

D. Wolf53 starts · 1591 shots, this season and last

0.0 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.975 791 shots
Medium-danger save %
.854 588 shots
High-danger save %
.726 212 shots
Shots faced per 60
29.7
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.37
Quality starts
55%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesD. WolfD. CooleyJ. DaccordP. Grubauer

J. Daccord45 starts · 1334 shots, this season and last

+1.8 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.968 730 shots
Medium-danger save %
.861 431 shots
High-danger save %
.688 173 shots
Shots faced per 60
29.1
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.41
Quality starts
56%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • D. Wolf: 0.0 goals saved above expected in 53 starts
    • J. Daccord: +1.8 goals saved above expected in 45 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • D. Wolf: 29.7 shots faced per 60
    • J. Daccord: 29.1 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • D. Wolf: the average shot he faces has a 7.0% chance of going in
    • J. Daccord: the average shot he faces has a 6.6% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • D. Wolf: 0.37 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Daccord: 0.41 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • D. Wolf: a typical wait of 69 seconds between shots
    • J. Daccord: a typical wait of 69 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • D. Wolf: a quality start 55% of the time
    • J. Daccord: a quality start 56% of the time

D. Wolf, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Daccord, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

D. Wolf1 start · 32 shots, this season

−1.9 goals saved above expected too few starts to rate

Low-danger save %
.875 8 shots
Medium-danger save %
.889 18 shots
High-danger save %
.500 6 shots
Shots faced per 60
32.1
Defensive breakdowns per 60
1
Quality starts
0%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesD. WolfD. CooleyJ. DaccordP. Grubauer

J. Daccord1 start · 25 shots, this season

+1.5 goals saved above expected too few starts to rate

Low-danger save %
.923 13 shots
Medium-danger save %
1.000 8 shots
High-danger save %
1.000 4 shots
Shots faced per 60
25.2
Defensive breakdowns per 60
1.01
Quality starts
100%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • D. Wolf: −1.9 goals saved above expected in 1 start (too few starts to place)
    • J. Daccord: +1.5 goals saved above expected in 1 start (too few starts to place)
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • D. Wolf: 32.1 shots faced per 60 (too few starts to place)
    • J. Daccord: 25.2 shots faced per 60 (too few starts to place)
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • D. Wolf: the average shot he faces has a 8.9% chance of going in (too few starts to place)
    • J. Daccord: the average shot he faces has a 5.9% chance of going in (too few starts to place)
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • D. Wolf: 1 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60 (too few starts to place)
    • J. Daccord: 1.01 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60 (too few starts to place)
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • D. Wolf: a typical wait of 64 seconds between shots (too few starts to place)
    • J. Daccord: a typical wait of 128 seconds between shots (too few starts to place)
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • D. Wolf: a quality start 0% of the time (too few starts to place)
    • J. Daccord: a quality start 100% of the time (too few starts to place)

D. Wolf, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Daccord, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
CalgarySeattleLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play56.9%55.8%
  • Power play17.7%19%
  • Rebound7.2%9.5%
  • Empty net6.2%7.4%
  • Off a turnover3.8%5.6%
  • Goalie pulled1%2.2%
  • Shorthanded4.8%0.4%
  • Off a faceoff win2.4%0%

209 Calgary goals and 231 Seattle goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play50%57.1%
  • Power play50%28.6%
  • Rebound0%14.3%
  • Empty net0%0%
  • Off a turnover0%0%
  • Goalie pulled0%0%
  • Shorthanded0%0%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

2 Calgary goals and 7 Seattle goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Calgary Flames · Seattle Kraken