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SJS

San Jose Sharks

2-0-0

DAL

Dallas Stars

0-2-0

Has last change

Monday, October 5

8:00 PM ET · American Airlines Center

The short version

Before the game

Hintz’s favourite opponent

The Stars won the first meeting this season, 5-0 in Dallas. The Sharks come in at 2-1-0, the Stars at 1-2-0. Dallas has had more of the chances over recent games and has home ice. San Jose can make it interesting if they keep shots to a minimum.

The Stars won the first meeting this season, 5-0 in Dallas. The Sharks come in at 2-1-0, the Stars at 1-2-0. Dallas has had more of the chances over recent games and has home ice. San Jose’s best way through is keeping shots to a minimum.

The Stars’ power play has a soft target in the Sharks’ kill. Both teams play slow, low-event hockey.

Who to watch

  • Owns themRoope Hintz has a point in nine straight games against San Jose.
  • MissingMacklin Celebrini has missed the Sharks’ latest game.
  • Old teamTy Dellandrea faces his old team, Dallas.

  1. Special teams lean toward the Stars

    The Sharks’ penalty kill is near the bottom of the league, and the Stars’ power play is one of the league’s best. Discipline matters more than usual for the Sharks tonight.

    The call The Stars’ power play creates at least their usual 8.7 expected goals per 60.

    Dallas 3rd for power play (8.7 expected goals per 60) · San Jose 24th for penalty kill

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 2 and 2 games this season

  2. Expect a grind

    San Jose plays some of the league’s slowest games, and so does Dallas. We think this one is even quieter than either team’s usual.

    The call The game runs at fewer than 75.6 shots per 60 at 5-on-5, slower than either team’s usual.

    Pace (shots per 60 at 5-on-5, both teams): San Jose 26th (79.5), Dallas 32nd (75.6)

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 2 and 2 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How San Jose and Dallas play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

San Jose SharksDallas StarsLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 2 and 2 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 2 games for San Jose, 2 for Dallas. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • San Jose: 50.2 shot attempts per 6029th of 32

      San Jose: 47.5 shot attempts per 6027th of 32

    • Dallas: 53.1 shot attempts per 6027th of 32

      Dallas: 58.2 shot attempts per 6011th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • San Jose: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot22nd of 32

      San Jose: a 3.9% chance of scoring on the average shot32nd of 32

    • Dallas: a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot6th of 32

      Dallas: a 4.7% chance of scoring on the average shot30th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • San Jose: 10.4% of chances come from rebounds11th of 32

      San Jose: 5.4% of chances come from rebounds26th of 32

    • Dallas: 10.5% of chances come from rebounds5th of 32

      Dallas: 5.4% of chances come from rebounds25th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • San Jose: 6.9% of chances come right after a turnover23rd of 32

      San Jose: 13.0% of chances come right after a turnover8th of 32

    • Dallas: 6.9% of chances come right after a turnover26th of 32

      Dallas: 6.1% of chances come right after a turnover20th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • San Jose: 34.2% of shot attempts come from defensemen19th of 32

      San Jose: 38.2% of shot attempts come from defensemen5th of 32

    • Dallas: 35.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen13th of 32

      Dallas: 37.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen7th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • San Jose: 30.4% of shots come from within 20 feet19th of 32

      San Jose: 17.5% of shots come from within 20 feet32nd of 32

    • Dallas: 32.2% of shots come from within 20 feet3rd of 32

      Dallas: 24.2% of shots come from within 20 feet28th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • San Jose: 58.8 shot attempts allowed per 6022nd of 32

      San Jose: 60.2 shot attempts allowed per 6020th of 32

    • Dallas: 55.1 shot attempts allowed per 6011th of 32

      Dallas: 58.2 shot attempts allowed per 6018th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • San Jose: a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot against20th of 32

      San Jose: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against22nd of 32

    • Dallas: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against16th of 32

      Dallas: a 6.7% chance of scoring on the average shot against25th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • San Jose: 0.42 defensive breakdowns per 6022nd of 32

      San Jose: 0.62 defensive breakdowns per 6022nd of 32

    • Dallas: 0.40 defensive breakdowns per 6013th of 32

      Dallas: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • San Jose: −0.01 goals saved above expected per 6031st of 32

      San Jose: +0.41 goals saved above expected per 6014th of 32

    • Dallas: +0.12 goals saved above expected per 6012th of 32

      Dallas: +0.34 goals saved above expected per 6016th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • San Jose: 79.5 shots per 60, both teams combined26th of 32

      San Jose: 80.2 shots per 60, both teams combined19th of 32

    • Dallas: 75.6 shots per 60, both teams combined32nd of 32

      Dallas: 79.7 shots per 60, both teams combined20th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • San Jose: forecheck score 103 (100 is league average)14th of 32San Jose: 22.2 forecheck plays recorded per 6017th of 32

      San Jose: forecheck score 108 (100 is league average)12th of 32San Jose: 25.4 forecheck plays recorded per 6014th of 32

    • Dallas: forecheck score 90 (100 is league average)24th of 32Dallas: 20.7 forecheck plays recorded per 6024th of 32

      Dallas: forecheck score 87 (100 is league average)21st of 32Dallas: 22.5 forecheck plays recorded per 6022nd of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • San Jose: hit score 107 (100 is league average)7th of 32San Jose: 26.0 hits recorded per 6019th of 32

      San Jose: hit score 96 (100 is league average)19th of 32San Jose: 25.9 hits recorded per 6023rd of 32

    • Dallas: hit score 94 (100 is league average)22nd of 32Dallas: 25.3 hits recorded per 6021st of 32

      Dallas: hit score 98 (100 is league average)18th of 32Dallas: 29.9 hits recorded per 6018th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • San Jose: 41.0% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six25th of 32

      San Jose: 42.3% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six18th of 32

    • Dallas: 40.2% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six30th of 32

      Dallas: 39.4% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six29th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • San Jose: 7.4 expected goals per 60 on the power play17th of 32

      San Jose: 11.8 expected goals per 60 on the power play3rd of 32

    • Dallas: 8.7 expected goals per 60 on the power play3rd of 32

      Dallas: 8.4 expected goals per 60 on the power play10th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • San Jose: 8.0 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded24th of 32

      San Jose: 11.7 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded31st of 32

    • Dallas: 7.0 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded7th of 32

      Dallas: 3.7 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded3rd of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • San Jose: 0.8 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded18th of 32

      San Jose: 1.3 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded7th of 32

    • Dallas: 0.7 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded27th of 32

      Dallas: 0.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded22nd of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • San Jose: 0.00 more penalties drawn than taken per 6016th of 32

      San Jose: 0.95 more penalties taken than drawn per 6025th of 32

    • Dallas: 0.08 more penalties taken than drawn per 6023rd of 32

      Dallas: 0.50 more penalties taken than drawn per 6020th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Dallas is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (2 and 2 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

San Jose Sharks

Dallas Stars

Who Dallas is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Dallas group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are San Jose’s, named in each box.

San Jose’s lines tonightL1 Marchment · Smith · CelebriniL2 Wennberg · Graf · StenbergL3 Toffoli · Chernyshov · MisaL4 Goodrow · Sherwood · Ostapchuk

Dallas forward lines against San Jose forward lines

  • L1Rantanen · Johnston · HryckowianSJS L149%SJS L20%SJS L327%SJS L424%
  • L2Seguin · Hintz · RobertsonSJS L169%SJS L20%SJS L323%SJS L47%
  • L3Benn · Steel · HyrySJS L130%SJS L20%SJS L317%SJS L453%
  • L4Blackwell · Faksa · BäckSJS L114%SJS L20%SJS L331%SJS L456%

Dallas defense pairs against San Jose forward lines

  • P1Myers · BichselSJS L121%SJS L20%SJS L336%SJS L443%
  • P2Lundkvist · HarleySJS L146%SJS L20%SJS L320%SJS L434%
  • P3Lindell · HeiskanenSJS L173%SJS L20%SJS L326%SJS L41%

Based on 1 Dallas home game this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

San Jose power play against Dallas penalty kill

  • San Jose power play

    7.4 expected goals per 60 · 17th of 32

  • Dallas penalty kill

    7.0 expected goals allowed per 60 · 7th of 32

San Jose power play

PP185% of the time

Creates 8.6 expected goals per 60

  • L. CagnoniQuarterback
  • A. WennbergDistributor
  • M. CelebriniTrigger
  • I. ChernyshovNet-front
  • W. Smith

PP215% of the time

Creates 6.8 expected goals per 60

  • D. OrlovQuarterback
  • I. Stenberg
  • T. ToffoliTrigger
  • M. Marchment
  • M. MisaNet-front

 

Where San Jose’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Dallas penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

Y. Askarov44 starts · 1403 shots, this season and last

−15.6 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.964 715 shots
Medium-danger save %
.854 501 shots
High-danger save %
.652 187 shots
Shots faced per 60
30.9
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.33
Quality starts
43%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesY. AskarovJ. OettingerC. DeSmith

J. Oettinger53 starts · 1394 shots, this season and last

+8.3 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.977 734 shots
Medium-danger save %
.857 461 shots
High-danger save %
.714 199 shots
Shots faced per 60
25.7
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.37
Quality starts
60%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • Y. Askarov: −15.6 goals saved above expected in 44 starts
    • J. Oettinger: +8.3 goals saved above expected in 53 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • Y. Askarov: 30.9 shots faced per 60
    • J. Oettinger: 25.7 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • Y. Askarov: the average shot he faces has a 7.1% chance of going in
    • J. Oettinger: the average shot he faces has a 7.0% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • Y. Askarov: 0.33 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Oettinger: 0.37 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • Y. Askarov: a typical wait of 65 seconds between shots
    • J. Oettinger: a typical wait of 80 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • Y. Askarov: a quality start 43% of the time
    • J. Oettinger: a quality start 60% of the time

Y. Askarov, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Oettinger, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

Y. Askarov2 starts · 61 shots, this season

+0.9 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.973 37 shots
Medium-danger save %
.789 19 shots
High-danger save %
.600 5 shots
Shots faced per 60
28.9
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.47
Quality starts
0%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesY. AskarovJ. OettingerC. DeSmith

J. Oettinger1 start · 22 shots, this season

+0.6 goals saved above expected too few starts to rate

Low-danger save %
1.000 14 shots
Medium-danger save %
1.000 3 shots
High-danger save %
.600 5 shots
Shots faced per 60
22.6
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
100%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • Y. Askarov: +0.9 goals saved above expected in 2 starts
    • J. Oettinger: +0.6 goals saved above expected in 1 start (too few starts to place)
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • Y. Askarov: 28.9 shots faced per 60
    • J. Oettinger: 22.6 shots faced per 60 (too few starts to place)
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • Y. Askarov: the average shot he faces has a 7.3% chance of going in
    • J. Oettinger: the average shot he faces has a 9.2% chance of going in (too few starts to place)
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • Y. Askarov: 0.47 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Oettinger: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60 (too few starts to place)
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • Y. Askarov: a typical wait of 76 seconds between shots
    • J. Oettinger: a typical wait of 92 seconds between shots (too few starts to place)
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • Y. Askarov: a quality start 0% of the time
    • J. Oettinger: a quality start 100% of the time (too few starts to place)

Y. Askarov, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Oettinger, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
San JoseDallasLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play53.9%51.9%
  • Power play21.7%27%
  • Rebound8.9%7.3%
  • Empty net4.7%4.2%
  • Off a turnover5.4%1.7%
  • Goalie pulled2.3%3.8%
  • Shorthanded1.6%1.4%
  • Off a faceoff win1.6%2.8%

258 San Jose goals and 289 Dallas goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play44.4%100%
  • Power play22.2%0%
  • Rebound0%0%
  • Empty net0%0%
  • Off a turnover22.2%0%
  • Goalie pulled0%0%
  • Shorthanded11.1%0%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

9 San Jose goals and 1 Dallas goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: San Jose Sharks · Dallas Stars