Real data. Everything on this page is computed from actual games.
Spare Line Change
Numbers from
Hits and takeaways
at

UTA

Utah Mammoth

2-1-0

NJD

New Jersey Devils

1-1-0

Has last change

Tuesday, October 6

7:00 PM ET · Prudential Center

The short version

Before the game

The matchup inside the matchup

The Mammoth come in at 2-1-0, the Devils at 1-1-0. The two have been about even at controlling the play lately and New Jersey has home ice. Utah can make it interesting if they get good looks.

The Mammoth come in at 2-1-0, the Devils at 1-1-0. The two have been about even at controlling the play lately and New Jersey has home ice. Utah can pull it off if they get good looks.

It’s strength against strength: the Devils for shot volume, the Mammoth at keeping shots away. The Mammoth and the Devils sit at opposite ends for depth.

Who to watch

  • Old teamJohn Marino faces his old team, New Jersey.
  • Leads the wayDylan Guenther leads the Mammoth with five points.

  1. The matchup inside the matchup

    The Devils are one of the league’s best for shot volume, and the Mammoth are one of the league’s best at keeping shots away. Our lean: the Devils’ shot volume wins out.

    The call The Devils take more than the league-average 56.5 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5 against the Mammoth.

    New Jersey 3rd for shot volume (65.0 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5) · Utah 4th for keeping shots away

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 2 and 3 games this season

  2. Depth against star power

    On depth, Utah is the league’s best and New Jersey is one of the league’s worst. That’s about as far apart as two teams get.

    The call The Mammoth spread their forward ice time deeper down the lineup than the Devils.

    Depth: Utah 1st, New Jersey 31st

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 3 and 2 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Utah and New Jersey play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Utah MammothNew Jersey DevilsLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 3 and 2 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 3 games for Utah, 2 for New Jersey. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Utah: 65.3 shot attempts per 602nd of 32

      Utah: 71.4 shot attempts per 603rd of 32

    • New Jersey: 65.0 shot attempts per 603rd of 32

      New Jersey: 77.8 shot attempts per 601st of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Utah: a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot13th of 32

      Utah: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot20th of 32

    • New Jersey: a 6.1% chance of scoring on the average shot27th of 32

      New Jersey: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot14th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Utah: 10.1% of chances come from rebounds23rd of 32

      Utah: 6.2% of chances come from rebounds24th of 32

    • New Jersey: 9.8% of chances come from rebounds32nd of 32

      New Jersey: 10.5% of chances come from rebounds16th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Utah: 7.4% of chances come right after a turnover14th of 32

      Utah: 11.2% of chances come right after a turnover10th of 32

    • New Jersey: 7.7% of chances come right after a turnover7th of 32

      New Jersey: 12.0% of chances come right after a turnover9th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Utah: 33.8% of shot attempts come from defensemen21st of 32

      Utah: 39.1% of shot attempts come from defensemen3rd of 32

    • New Jersey: 35.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen12th of 32

      New Jersey: 37.4% of shot attempts come from defensemen8th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Utah: 31.0% of shots come from within 20 feet9th of 32

      Utah: 31.7% of shots come from within 20 feet15th of 32

    • New Jersey: 28.8% of shots come from within 20 feet29th of 32

      New Jersey: 26.3% of shots come from within 20 feet24th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Utah: 51.6 shot attempts allowed per 604th of 32

      Utah: 46.5 shot attempts allowed per 608th of 32

    • New Jersey: 54.5 shot attempts allowed per 6011th of 32

      New Jersey: 45.7 shot attempts allowed per 607th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Utah: a 6.8% chance of scoring on the average shot against31st of 32

      Utah: a 7.9% chance of scoring on the average shot against31st of 32

    • New Jersey: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against26th of 32

      New Jersey: a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot against21st of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Utah: 0.38 defensive breakdowns per 606th of 32

      Utah: 0.39 defensive breakdowns per 6019th of 32

    • New Jersey: 0.44 defensive breakdowns per 6027th of 32

      New Jersey: 1.90 defensive breakdowns per 6032nd of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Utah: +0.14 goals saved above expected per 609th of 32

      Utah: +1.28 goals saved above expected per 605th of 32

    • New Jersey: +0.11 goals saved above expected per 6017th of 32

      New Jersey: −1.19 goals saved above expected per 6027th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Utah: 81.1 shots per 60, both teams combined20th of 32

      Utah: 82.0 shots per 60, both teams combined15th of 32

    • New Jersey: 83.7 shots per 60, both teams combined9th of 32

      New Jersey: 91.1 shots per 60, both teams combined4th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Utah: forecheck score 116 (100 is league average)4th of 32Utah: 25.4 forecheck plays recorded per 605th of 32

      Utah: forecheck score 138 (100 is league average)2nd of 32Utah: 33.1 forecheck plays recorded per 603rd of 32

    • New Jersey: forecheck score 99 (100 is league average)19th of 32New Jersey: 21.5 forecheck plays recorded per 6023rd of 32

      New Jersey: forecheck score 111 (100 is league average)10th of 32New Jersey: 26.7 forecheck plays recorded per 6011th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Utah: hit score 112 (100 is league average)5th of 32Utah: 28.3 hits recorded per 6010th of 32

      Utah: hit score 132 (100 is league average)2nd of 32Utah: 37.0 hits recorded per 605th of 32

    • New Jersey: hit score 82 (100 is league average)30th of 32New Jersey: 20.6 hits recorded per 6030th of 32

      New Jersey: hit score 74 (100 is league average)29th of 32New Jersey: 20.8 hits recorded per 6029th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Utah: 44.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six1st of 32

      Utah: 45.6% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six3rd of 32

    • New Jersey: 40.2% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six31st of 32

      New Jersey: 40.3% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six27th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Utah: 8.1 expected goals per 60 on the power play7th of 32

      Utah: 13.0 expected goals per 60 on the power play1st of 32

    • New Jersey: 8.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play5th of 32

      New Jersey: 4.9 expected goals per 60 on the power play24th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Utah: 7.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded13th of 32

      Utah: 4.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded6th of 32

    • New Jersey: 7.2 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded9th of 32

      New Jersey: 5.9 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded14th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Utah: 0.8 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded25th of 32

      Utah: 1.3 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded7th of 32

    • New Jersey: 1.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded4th of 32

      New Jersey: 0.2 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded21st of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Utah: 0.07 more penalties taken than drawn per 6023rd of 32

      Utah: 0.00 more penalties drawn than taken per 6015th of 32

    • New Jersey: 0.07 more penalties drawn than taken per 609th of 32

      New Jersey: 2.43 more penalties drawn than taken per 601st of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

New Jersey is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (3 and 2 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Utah Mammoth

New Jersey Devils

Worth knowing

  • Utah D. Simashev has started killing penalties: on the ice for 26% of the team’s shorthanded time in 3 games, up from 4% last season.

Who New Jersey is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one New Jersey group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Utah’s, named in each box.

Utah’s lines tonightL1 Trocheck · Schmaltz · KellerL2 Lee · Guenther · CooleyL3 Crouse · Hayton · McBainL4 Stenlund · Carcone · But

New Jersey forward lines against Utah forward lines

  • L1Mantha · Bratt · HughesUTA L132%UTA L219%UTA L333%UTA L416%
  • L2Rodrigues · Gritsyuk · MercerUTA L115%UTA L247%UTA L325%UTA L414%
  • L3Meier · Hischier · EvangelistaUTA L147%UTA L226%UTA L319%UTA L48%
  • L4Noesen · Glass · LombardiUTA L121%UTA L234%UTA L335%UTA L410%

New Jersey defense pairs against Utah forward lines

  • P1Hamilton · SiegenthalerUTA L124%UTA L243%UTA L325%UTA L48%
  • P2Pesce · HughesUTA L124%UTA L233%UTA L320%UTA L422%
  • P3Dillon · ChisholmUTA L142%UTA L210%UTA L338%UTA L411%

Based on 1 New Jersey home game this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Utah power play against New Jersey penalty kill

  • Utah power play

    8.1 expected goals per 60 · 7th of 32

  • New Jersey penalty kill

    7.2 expected goals allowed per 60 · 9th of 32

Utah power play

PP169% of the time

Creates 8.4 expected goals per 60

  • M. SergachevQuarterback
  • D. GuentherTrigger
  • N. SchmaltzNet-front
  • L. CooleyNet-front
  • C. KellerDistributor

PP231% of the time

Creates 7.7 expected goals per 60

  • J. MarinoQuarterback
  • M. CarconeTrigger
  • V. Trocheck
  • A. Lee
  • D. But

 

Where Utah’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

New Jersey penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

K. Vejmelka64 starts · 1663 shots, this season and last

+13.9 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.967 827 shots
Medium-danger save %
.898 578 shots
High-danger save %
.667 258 shots
Shots faced per 60
26.2
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.25
Quality starts
53%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesK. VejmelkaS. CossaJ. AllenN. Daws

J. Allen38 starts · 1057 shots, this season and last

+12.6 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.979 526 shots
Medium-danger save %
.910 366 shots
High-danger save %
.648 165 shots
Shots faced per 60
28.2
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.4
Quality starts
58%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • K. Vejmelka: +13.9 goals saved above expected in 64 starts
    • J. Allen: +12.6 goals saved above expected in 38 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • K. Vejmelka: 26.2 shots faced per 60
    • J. Allen: 28.2 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • K. Vejmelka: the average shot he faces has a 7.2% chance of going in
    • J. Allen: the average shot he faces has a 7.1% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • K. Vejmelka: 0.25 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Allen: 0.4 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • K. Vejmelka: a typical wait of 74 seconds between shots
    • J. Allen: a typical wait of 70 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • K. Vejmelka: a quality start 53% of the time
    • J. Allen: a quality start 58% of the time

K. Vejmelka, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Allen, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

K. Vejmelka2 starts · 36 shots, this season

+2.0 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.929 14 shots
Medium-danger save %
1.000 13 shots
High-danger save %
.778 9 shots
Shots faced per 60
18.2
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.51
Quality starts
50%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesK. VejmelkaS. CossaJ. AllenN. Daws

J. Allen1 start · 25 shots, this season

−0.2 goals saved above expected too few starts to rate

Low-danger save %
.933 15 shots
Medium-danger save %
.889 9 shots
High-danger save %
1.000 1 shots
Shots faced per 60
23.7
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
100%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • K. Vejmelka: +2.0 goals saved above expected in 2 starts
    • J. Allen: −0.2 goals saved above expected in 1 start (too few starts to place)
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • K. Vejmelka: 18.2 shots faced per 60
    • J. Allen: 23.7 shots faced per 60 (too few starts to place)
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • K. Vejmelka: the average shot he faces has a 7.7% chance of going in
    • J. Allen: the average shot he faces has a 5.8% chance of going in (too few starts to place)
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • K. Vejmelka: 0.51 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Allen: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60 (too few starts to place)
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • K. Vejmelka: a typical wait of 146 seconds between shots
    • J. Allen: a typical wait of 75 seconds between shots (too few starts to place)
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • K. Vejmelka: a quality start 50% of the time
    • J. Allen: a quality start 100% of the time (too few starts to place)

K. Vejmelka, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Allen, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
UtahNew JerseyLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play61.1%57.9%
  • Power play18.1%19.3%
  • Rebound5%2.6%
  • Empty net6.4%7.9%
  • Off a turnover6.7%4.4%
  • Goalie pulled0.3%4.4%
  • Shorthanded2%2.6%
  • Off a faceoff win0.3%0.9%

298 Utah goals and 228 New Jersey goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play50%66.7%
  • Power play50%0%
  • Rebound0%0%
  • Empty net0%0%
  • Off a turnover0%33.3%
  • Goalie pulled0%0%
  • Shorthanded0%0%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

12 Utah goals and 3 New Jersey goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Utah Mammoth · New Jersey Devils