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final

VAN1

Vancouver Canucks

NJD4

New Jersey Devils

Saturday, October 10

Final · Prudential Center

The short version

What happened

The Devils beat the Canucks

Linus Karlsson opened the scoring early in the first. Nico Hischier added two power-play goals. Vancouver pulled Leevi Meriläinen after three goals.

The score was fair. Replay this game’s chances a hundred times and the Devils win about seven in ten.

What it means

  • SlumpThe Canucks haven’t won in three.
  • FinallyLinus Karlsson scored his first goal of the season.
  • The previewBoth of the preview’s calls held.

Our pre-game read

The win chance our model worked out before the game, kept off the site until now.

We gave Vancouver only a 18% chance, and it went the way we feared.

Two even teams on neutral ice50%
Home ice−4 points46%
Recent chances−19 points28%
Who's been playing−9 points18%
Back-to-back0 points18%
Our chance for Vancouver the morning of the game18%
Tonight's lineup+3 points
At puck drop, once the lineups were known21%

Recent chances: how much better each team’s chances have been than their opponents’ lately, with the latest games counting most. Who’s been playing: whether the players who dressed last time were stronger or weaker than the ones behind those recent games, so a star who is out or back counts straight away. Back-to-back: playing for the second night in a row. Tonight’s lineup: any change in who dressed since the last game. Only earlier games went into it, and the preview hinted at it in words without showing the number.

We gave New Jersey a 82% chance, and New Jersey delivered.

Two even teams on neutral ice50%
Home ice+4 points54%
Recent chances+19 points72%
Who's been playing+9 points82%
Back-to-back0 points82%
Our chance for New Jersey the morning of the game82%
Tonight's lineup−3 points
At puck drop, once the lineups were known79%

Recent chances: how much better each team’s chances have been than their opponents’ lately, with the latest games counting most. Who’s been playing: whether the players who dressed last time were stronger or weaker than the ones behind those recent games, so a star who is out or back counts straight away. Back-to-back: playing for the second night in a row. Tonight’s lineup: any change in who dressed since the last game. Only earlier games went into it, and the preview hinted at it in words without showing the number.

What the preview said, and what happened

Of the 2 calls the preview made, 2 held up, 0 partly did, and 0 didn’t happen.

  1. Before the game

    The Devils should pile up the shots

    The Devils shoot a lot (63.9 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5, 5th in the league), and the Canucks are 31st at keeping shots down. Look for a big shot total.

    The call The Devils take at least their usual 63.9 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5.

    Held up

    New Jersey took 68.3 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5 (adjusted for score and venue), against their usual 63.9.

    63.9 per 60
    Coming in
    68.3 per 60
    In this game
    56.5 per 60
    League average

  2. Before the game

    Penalties could cost the Canucks

    The Canucks’ penalty kill sits 31st in the league, and the Devils’ power play is 7th (8.2 expected goals per 60). Discipline matters more than usual for the Canucks tonight.

    The call The Devils’ power play creates at least their usual 8.2 expected goals per 60.

    Held up

    New Jersey’s power play created 14.0 expected goals per 60 in 4:14 of 5-on-4 time, against their usual 8.2, and scored 3 goals.

    Called it, and then some. 3 power-play goals on 4 chances.

    8.2 per 60
    Coming in
    14.0 per 60
    In this game
    7.5 per 60
    League average

Each call is checked by a rule set before the game. Held up: the team reached their usual level. Partly: they fell short of their usual level but still beat the league average. When a call says one team will come out ahead, held up means they won by at least half their usual gap, and partly means they won by less. One game is a small sample, so a miss doesn’t mean the preview was wrong about the team.

Read the full preview as it stood at puck drop.

This season so far: 94 held up, 12 partly, 64 didn’t happen, out of 170 graded calls. See the track record.

Run it back

We replayed this game’s chances 100 times. Here is how often each team came out ahead.

New Jersey earned this one

Played out 100 times with these chances, New Jersey wins 75.

25%
Vancouver: 18 wins, plus half of the 14 ties
75%
New Jersey: 68 wins, plus half of the 14 ties

Vancouver had 33 chances worth 2.3 expected goals. New Jersey had 43 chances worth 3.8 expected goals.

How it works: every shot in regulation that was on target or missed the net goes in as often as our expected-goals model says it should, and the game is played out 100 times that way. A rebound scramble counts as one chance, and empty-net shots are left out. A replay tied after regulation counts as half a win each, since overtime and shootouts are close to coin flips.

It doesn’t know about goalies, finishing skill or passes before a shot. It also favours the team that was chasing, because a team with a lead tends to sit back. Over the last three seasons, teams it gave 80% or more won about two games in three.

What the preview didn’t see coming

The parts of this game furthest from how these teams usually play, biggest first.

Broke the pattern: a team did the opposite of their usual habit. Further than usual: a usual habit, taken much further. Closer than usual: a usual strength or weakness that mostly disappeared. Out of character: a usually average team, far from average. Each is measured against the teams’ numbers before the game.

The numbers

How the game went, beyond the score.

VancouverNew Jersey
Goals14
Shots on goal2137
Expected goals2.33.9
Shot attempts at 5-on-53954
Power plays1 of 23 of 4

Swing

How far each player swung tonight’s result, for his team or against it.

The biggest swings: J. DeBrusk +1.1, N. Hischier +0.9 and J. Hughes +0.8.

Showhighlighting

The number is roughly in goals: what he added to his team tonight, or cost it. Tap a player to see where it came from. The label beside it is his report card from “Did they do their job?” below; L1 to L4 and P1 to P3 are tonight’s lines and pairs.

How Swing is worked outHide how Swing is worked out

Scoresheet: each goal is shared 40% to the scorer, 35% to the first assist and 25% to the second, plus a quarter of the expected goals of his own shots. A penalty drawn adds 0.16 and one taken costs 0.16, what a power play is worth on average; each faceoff won or lost moves it by 0.006.

5-on-5 counts most: expected goals for minus against with him on, half compared with league average (adjusted for score and venue) and half compared with his own team when he was on the bench, plus a smaller amount for actual goals. A player on a losing team can score well if his line held its own. Special teams: power-play and penalty-kill time compared with a league-average unit.

Company kept (counted inside 5-on-5): from every player’s 5-on-5 impact over the two seasons before, a player out with strong linemates against weak opponents gives a little back, and the reverse earns a little. Goalies: goals saved above expected. Empty-net shots and shootouts are left out. One game is a small sample: this says who swung this result, not who is better.

Did they do their job?

What each player is relied on for or better than most at, and whether he delivered.

Show
  • Z. BuiumOff night
    Defense
    24:36
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    0.7–1.6
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play0.0typical 6.2
  • E. PetterssonDid his job
    Defense
    19:31
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.6–0.4
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    2
    Blocks
    2
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill17.4typical 7.1
    • ✓Hitting Better than mosthits2typical 2
    • ✓Blocking shots Better than mostblocked shots2typical 2
  • F. HronekRough night

    No points, and 80% of the 5-on-5 chances went the other way with him on.

    Defense
    19:28
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    0.3–1.1
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play10.1typical 6.2
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill12.5typical 6.9
    • ✕Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-51.2typical 2.1
  • E. PetterssonMixed night
    Center
    17:32
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.9–0.5
    Shots
    3
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    1
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play0.0typical 7.3
    • ✓Blocking shots Better than mostblocked shots1typical 1
    • ≈Hitting Better than mosthits1typical 3
  • J. DeBruskDid his job
    Left wing
    17:15
    G
    0
    A
    1
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    1.3–0.5
    Shots
    7
    Hits
    2
    Blocks
    1
    • ✓Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play9.6typical 7.4
  • B. BoeserDid his job
    Right wing
    16:58
    G
    0
    A
    1
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.9–0.5
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play9.3typical 7.1
Show 8 more Vancouver playersHide the other Vancouver players
  • D. O'ConnorDid his job
    Left wing
    16:50
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.8–0.5
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    1
    • ✓Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill3.4typical 6.9
  • J. OleksiakDid his job
    Defense
    16:29
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.7–0.9
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    3
    Blocks
    5
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill8.0typical 7.8
    • ✓Hitting Better than mosthits3typical 1
  • L. SchennDid his job
    Defense
    16:06
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.7–0.5
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    3
    Blocks
    2
    • ✓Hitting Better than mosthits3typical 3
    • –Kills penalties Relied onToo little time to judge
  • M. RossiOff night
    Center
    15:46
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.2–0.7
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play10.1typical 6.0
    • ✕Faceoffs Better than mostfaceoffs won7 of 14typical 51%
  • P. CotterDid his job
    Left wing
    15:11
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.2–0.7
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    4
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Hitting Better than mosthits4typical 3
  • L. KarlssonMixed night

    A power-play goal from a player who scores in about 1 game in 6, so it counts for more.

    Center
    14:46
    G
    1
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.2–0.7
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-50.8typical 2.2
  • B. GallagherDid his job
    Right wing
    11:53
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    0.2–1.1
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    1
    • ✕Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-51.1typical 2.4
    • ✓Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.16typical 0.10
    • ✓Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-54typical 2
  • M. SassonDid his job
    Center
    10:40
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    0.1–1.1
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    1
    • ✓Blocking shots Better than mostblocked shots1typical 1
How the cards are gradedHide how the cards are graded

✓ a typical night for him in the ice time he got (the level he reaches in about half his games). ≈ beat an average player at his position, a typical power play or kill, or his own team with him off the ice. ✕ neither. Power-play and penalty-kill results count half, since five players share them.

Huge night: a hat trick or four or more points. Big night: two or more points, or a goal from a player who scores in fewer than one game in five on top of doing his jobs. Rough night: no points while the other team had 70% or more of the 5-on-5 chances with him on (xGF–xGA). Plus-minus never sets the level. A shorthanded goal counts as two points. Points never fully cover for jobs that went badly: with his jobs off, a huge night reads big and a big night reads mixed.

Judged only from games before this one; 5-on-5 rates adjusted for score and venue. One game is a small sample: even a strong player misses a typical night about half the time. Both teams: 37 ✓, 5 ≈, 21 ✕.

Somewhere new

Things they aren’t known for, far beyond their usual pace.

A night this big would happen less than one game in fifty at his usual pace, and is at least twice what an average player at his position would manage.

In net

Each goalie’s night: the goals he stopped beyond what the shots were worth, and the dangerous and routine saves.

  • L. MeriläinenDid his job
    Goalie
    54:33
    Shots
    34
    Saves
    31
    Sv%
    .912
    xGA
    3.1
    GSAx
    +0.1
    Dangerous
    4/5
    • ✓Saving more than expected goals saved above expected+0.1typical -0.5
    • ✓Dangerous shots saves on shots with a 15%+ chance4 of 5typically saves 3 of 5
    • ✓Routine shots saves on shots under a 15% chance27 of 29typically saves 27 of 29
  • J. AllenDid his job
    Goalie
    60:00
    Shots
    21
    Saves
    20
    Sv%
    .952
    xGA
    2.3
    GSAx
    +1.3
    Dangerous
    5/6
    • ✓Saving more than expected goals saved above expected+1.3typical +0.2
    • ✓Dangerous shots saves on shots with a 15%+ chance5 of 6typically saves 4 of 6
    • ✓Routine shots saves on shots under a 15% chance15 of 15typically saves 14 of 15

Every goalie has the same three jobs, judged against his own earlier starts (✓) and an average goalie (≈). Huge night: a shutout on 25 or more shots, or 3+ goals saved above expected. Big night: any other shutout, or 1.5+. Rough night: 2+ goals worse than expected, or pulled early after three or more.

Empty-net shots are left out. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie beaten by cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really was.

Team pages: Vancouver Canucks · New Jersey Devils