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Hits and takeaways
at

EDM

Edmonton Oilers

2-0-1

ANA

Anaheim Ducks

2-0-0

Has last change

Wednesday, October 7

10:00 PM ET · Honda Center

The short version

Before the game

Bouchard’s favourite opponent

The Oilers already came to Anaheim once this season and left with a 5-2 win. The Ducks are 2-1-0. The Oilers have won three straight. Edmonton has had more of the chances over recent games and Anaheim has home ice. Anaheim’s best way to tip it is pouncing on loose pucks.

The Oilers already came to Anaheim once this season and left with a 5-2 win. The Ducks are 2-1-0. The Oilers have won three straight. Edmonton has had more of the chances over recent games and Anaheim has home ice. It’s still close, though: Anaheim can make it interesting if they pounce on loose pucks.

The Ducks pounce on loose pucks, and the Oilers cough them up.

Who to watch

  • Owns themEvan Bouchard has a point in twelve straight games against Anaheim, and 18 points in his last twelve against them.
  • Haunts themCutter Gauthier has five goals in eight games against Edmonton since 2023-24.
  • Hot streakConnor McDavid has a point in every game this season.
  • Hot streakLeon Draisaitl has a point in every game this season.

  1. The Oilers can’t afford to cough it up

    The Ducks turn stolen pucks into chances, and the Oilers are one of the league’s worst at avoiding breakdowns. A sloppy pass or two could cost the Oilers.

    The call The Ducks get at least their usual 7.9% of their 5-on-5 chances right after winning the puck.

    Anaheim 4th for chances off turnovers (7.9% of their chances come right after winning the puck) · Edmonton 29th for avoiding breakdowns

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 2 and 3 games this season

  2. Quality over quantity for the Oilers

    The Ducks have struggled to prevent dangerous shots, and the Oilers don’t waste many.

    The call The Oilers’ average shot has at least their usual 6.6% chance of going in.

    Edmonton 9th for shot quality (a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot) · Anaheim 24th for preventing dangerous shots

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 3 and 2 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Edmonton and Anaheim play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Edmonton OilersAnaheim DucksLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 3 and 2 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 3 games for Edmonton, 2 for Anaheim. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Edmonton: 57.8 shot attempts per 6011th of 32

      Edmonton: 59.5 shot attempts per 6010th of 32

    • Anaheim: 57.7 shot attempts per 6012th of 32

      Anaheim: 47.9 shot attempts per 6027th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Edmonton: a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot9th of 32

      Edmonton: a 6.7% chance of scoring on the average shot14th of 32

    • Anaheim: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot17th of 32

      Anaheim: a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot15th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Edmonton: 9.9% of chances come from rebounds32nd of 32

      Edmonton: 8.0% of chances come from rebounds21st of 32

    • Anaheim: 10.7% of chances come from rebounds2nd of 32

      Anaheim: 42.5% of chances come from rebounds1st of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Edmonton: 6.9% of chances come right after a turnover28th of 32

      Edmonton: 9.5% of chances come right after a turnover13th of 32

    • Anaheim: 7.9% of chances come right after a turnover4th of 32

      Anaheim: 12.0% of chances come right after a turnover9th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Edmonton: 36.4% of shot attempts come from defensemen6th of 32

      Edmonton: 34.0% of shot attempts come from defensemen16th of 32

    • Anaheim: 36.4% of shot attempts come from defensemen5th of 32

      Anaheim: 37.5% of shot attempts come from defensemen8th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Edmonton: 30.6% of shots come from within 20 feet14th of 32

      Edmonton: 26.0% of shots come from within 20 feet25th of 32

    • Anaheim: 30.5% of shots come from within 20 feet15th of 32

      Anaheim: 35.4% of shots come from within 20 feet7th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Edmonton: 52.4 shot attempts allowed per 606th of 32

      Edmonton: 42.8 shot attempts allowed per 603rd of 32

    • Anaheim: 59.0 shot attempts allowed per 6023rd of 32

      Anaheim: 60.1 shot attempts allowed per 6022nd of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Edmonton: a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot against28th of 32

      Edmonton: a 6.8% chance of scoring on the average shot against26th of 32

    • Anaheim: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against24th of 32

      Anaheim: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against15th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Edmonton: 0.44 defensive breakdowns per 6029th of 32

      Edmonton: 0.42 defensive breakdowns per 6016th of 32

    • Anaheim: 0.39 defensive breakdowns per 6016th of 32

      Anaheim: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Edmonton: +0.04 goals saved above expected per 6029th of 32

      Edmonton: −2.46 goals saved above expected per 6032nd of 32

    • Anaheim: +0.10 goals saved above expected per 6019th of 32

      Anaheim: +0.89 goals saved above expected per 606th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Edmonton: 79.9 shots per 60, both teams combined24th of 32

      Edmonton: 71.7 shots per 60, both teams combined28th of 32

    • Anaheim: 86.1 shots per 60, both teams combined2nd of 32

      Anaheim: 72.6 shots per 60, both teams combined27th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Edmonton: forecheck score 105 (100 is league average)11th of 32Edmonton: 25.3 forecheck plays recorded per 606th of 32

      Edmonton: forecheck score 123 (100 is league average)5th of 32Edmonton: 33.1 forecheck plays recorded per 604th of 32

    • Anaheim: forecheck score 101 (100 is league average)16th of 32Anaheim: 22.9 forecheck plays recorded per 6015th of 32

      Anaheim: forecheck score 93 (100 is league average)18th of 32Anaheim: 22.9 forecheck plays recorded per 6019th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Edmonton: hit score 104 (100 is league average)14th of 32Edmonton: 29.2 hits recorded per 606th of 32

      Edmonton: hit score 124 (100 is league average)4th of 32Edmonton: 40.9 hits recorded per 602nd of 32

    • Anaheim: hit score 105 (100 is league average)13th of 32Anaheim: 27.2 hits recorded per 6013th of 32

      Anaheim: hit score 108 (100 is league average)11th of 32Anaheim: 31.4 hits recorded per 6013th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Edmonton: 40.2% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six30th of 32

      Edmonton: 40.9% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six23rd of 32

    • Anaheim: 42.0% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six16th of 32

      Anaheim: 43.7% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six9th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Edmonton: 9.8 expected goals per 60 on the power play1st of 32

      Edmonton: 8.6 expected goals per 60 on the power play10th of 32

    • Anaheim: 7.2 expected goals per 60 on the power play23rd of 32

      Anaheim: 5.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play22nd of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Edmonton: 8.1 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded23rd of 32

      Edmonton: 3.9 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded4th of 32

    • Anaheim: 7.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded12th of 32

      Anaheim: 7.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded18th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Edmonton: 1.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded3rd of 32

      Edmonton: 1.5 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded6th of 32

    • Anaheim: 1.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded11th of 32

      Anaheim: 0.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded28th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Edmonton: 0.06 more penalties drawn than taken per 6011th of 32

      Edmonton: 1.65 more penalties drawn than taken per 602nd of 32

    • Anaheim: 0.05 more penalties drawn than taken per 6014th of 32

      Anaheim: 0.48 more penalties taken than drawn per 6021st of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Anaheim is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (3 and 2 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Edmonton Oilers

Anaheim Ducks

Worth knowing

  • Edmonton K. Kapanen has started playing on the power play: on the ice for 51% of the team’s power-play time in 3 games, up from 6% last season.

Who Anaheim is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Anaheim group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Edmonton’s, named in each box.

Edmonton’s lines tonightL1 Draisaitl · McDavid · PodkolzinL2 Joseph · Formenton · MichaelsL3 Kapanen · Jones · DachL4 Frederic · Howard · Samanski

Anaheim forward lines against Edmonton forward lines

  • L1Killorn · Granlund · SenneckeEDM L118%EDM L237%EDM L326%EDM L419%
  • L2Greer · Gauthier · CarlssonEDM L134%EDM L229%EDM L325%EDM L411%
  • L3Caulfield · Malott · WasheEDM L145%EDM L223%EDM L314%EDM L419%
  • L4Poehling · Nesterenko · ColangeloEDM L131%EDM L229%EDM L320%EDM L419%

Anaheim defense pairs against Edmonton forward lines

  • P1LaCombe · LuneauEDM L133%EDM L216%EDM L337%EDM L414%
  • P2Mintyukov · MitchellEDM L137%EDM L233%EDM L310%EDM L420%
  • P3Hinds · WarrenEDM L123%EDM L251%EDM L39%EDM L416%

Based on 1 Anaheim home game this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Edmonton power play against Anaheim penalty kill

  • Edmonton power play

    9.8 expected goals per 60 · 1st of 32

  • Anaheim penalty kill

    7.4 expected goals allowed per 60 · 12th of 32

Edmonton power play

PP169% of the time

Creates 8.5 expected goals per 60

  • E. BouchardQuarterback
  • L. DraisaitlDistributor
  • C. McDavidTrigger
  • V. PodkolzinNet-front
  • K. Kapanen

PP231% of the time

Creates 6.8 expected goals per 60

  • J. WalmanQuarterback
  • I. Howard
  • T. Frederic
  • R. Shea
  • C. Dach

 

Where Edmonton’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Anaheim penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

Projected startersL. Dostal likely

T. Jarry31 starts · 855 shots, this season and last

−5.4 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.964 415 shots
Medium-danger save %
.839 310 shots
High-danger save %
.700 130 shots
Shots faced per 60
28
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.52
Quality starts
45%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesT. JarryD. LeviL. Dostal

L. Dostal56 starts · 1574 shots, this season and last

+3.8 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.979 730 shots
Medium-danger save %
.852 586 shots
High-danger save %
.721 258 shots
Shots faced per 60
27.8
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.37
Quality starts
54%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • T. Jarry: −5.4 goals saved above expected in 31 starts
    • L. Dostal: +3.8 goals saved above expected in 56 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • T. Jarry: 28 shots faced per 60
    • L. Dostal: 27.8 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • T. Jarry: the average shot he faces has a 7.4% chance of going in
    • L. Dostal: the average shot he faces has a 7.2% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • T. Jarry: 0.52 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • L. Dostal: 0.37 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • T. Jarry: a typical wait of 69 seconds between shots
    • L. Dostal: a typical wait of 71 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • T. Jarry: a quality start 45% of the time
    • L. Dostal: a quality start 54% of the time

T. Jarry, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

L. Dostal, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

T. Jarry1 start · 23 shots, this season

−3.9 goals saved above expected too few starts to rate

Low-danger save %
.917 12 shots
Medium-danger save %
.571 7 shots
High-danger save %
.500 4 shots
Shots faced per 60
22.4
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.97
Quality starts
0%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesT. JarryD. LeviL. Dostal

L. Dostal2 starts · 61 shots, this season

+1.8 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
1.000 27 shots
Medium-danger save %
.900 20 shots
High-danger save %
.786 14 shots
Shots faced per 60
29.6
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
100%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • T. Jarry: −3.9 goals saved above expected in 1 start (too few starts to place)
    • L. Dostal: +1.8 goals saved above expected in 2 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • T. Jarry: 22.4 shots faced per 60 (too few starts to place)
    • L. Dostal: 29.6 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • T. Jarry: the average shot he faces has a 7.1% chance of going in (too few starts to place)
    • L. Dostal: the average shot he faces has a 7.1% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • T. Jarry: 0.97 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60 (too few starts to place)
    • L. Dostal: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • T. Jarry: a typical wait of 114 seconds between shots (too few starts to place)
    • L. Dostal: a typical wait of 101 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • T. Jarry: a quality start 0% of the time (too few starts to place)
    • L. Dostal: a quality start 100% of the time

T. Jarry, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

L. Dostal, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team and open on the one we expect to start: NHL.com’s projected starter once its game-day preview is up (right about 9 times in 10 this season), otherwise our own guess from who has started lately and whether it is the second night of a back-to-back (right about 7 times in 10 in past seasons). Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
EdmontonAnaheimLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play53.9%52.7%
  • Power play23.2%19.9%
  • Rebound6%8.4%
  • Empty net5.6%6.1%
  • Off a turnover3.1%4.2%
  • Goalie pulled2.5%4.2%
  • Shorthanded2.2%2.6%
  • Off a faceoff win3.4%1.9%

319 Edmonton goals and 311 Anaheim goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play47.1%28.6%
  • Power play11.8%42.9%
  • Rebound5.9%14.3%
  • Empty net5.9%0%
  • Off a turnover0%0%
  • Goalie pulled5.9%0%
  • Shorthanded11.8%0%
  • Off a faceoff win11.8%14.3%

17 Edmonton goals and 7 Anaheim goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Edmonton Oilers · Anaheim Ducks