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final

FLA2

Florida Panthers

ANA3

Anaheim Ducks

Sunday, October 4

Final in overtime · Honda Center

The short version

What happened

Dostal steals one

Cutter Gauthier scored twice, opening the scoring late in the first. Twice the Panthers answered a Ducks lead. Mikael Granlund won it in overtime.

The Panthers had the better of the play. Replay the chances a hundred times and the Panthers win about four in five. Lukas Dostal made the difference in net, stopping 29 of 31.

What it means

  • The previewOne of the preview’s two calls held.
  • RecordThe Ducks are now 2-0-0.

Our pre-game read

The win chance our model worked out before the game, kept off the site until now.

We had this close to even (41% for Florida), and it went Anaheim’s way.

Two even teams on neutral ice50%
Home ice−4 points46%
Recent chances−8 points38%
Who's been playing+3 points41%
Back-to-back0 points41%
Our chance for Florida the morning of the game41%
Tonight's lineup+2 points
At puck drop, once the lineups were known43%

Recent chances: how much better each team’s chances have been than their opponents’ lately, with the latest games counting most. Who’s been playing: whether the players who dressed last time were stronger or weaker than the ones behind those recent games, so a star who is out or back counts straight away. Back-to-back: playing for the second night in a row. Tonight’s lineup: any change in who dressed since the last game. Only earlier games went into it, and the preview hinted at it in words without showing the number.

We had this close to even (59% for Anaheim), and Anaheim came through.

Two even teams on neutral ice50%
Home ice+4 points54%
Recent chances+8 points62%
Who's been playing−3 points59%
Back-to-back0 points59%
Our chance for Anaheim the morning of the game59%
Tonight's lineup−2 points
At puck drop, once the lineups were known57%

Recent chances: how much better each team’s chances have been than their opponents’ lately, with the latest games counting most. Who’s been playing: whether the players who dressed last time were stronger or weaker than the ones behind those recent games, so a star who is out or back counts straight away. Back-to-back: playing for the second night in a row. Tonight’s lineup: any change in who dressed since the last game. Only earlier games went into it, and the preview hinted at it in words without showing the number.

What the preview said, and what happened

Of the 2 calls the preview made, 1 held up, 0 partly did, and 1 didn’t happen.

  1. Before the game

    Something has to give

    The Ducks are near the top of the league for shot volume, and the Panthers are one of the league’s best at keeping shots away. We’ll side with the Ducks.

    The call The Ducks take more than the league-average 56.4 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5 against the Panthers.

    Anaheim 6th for shot volume (61.4 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5) · Florida 2nd for keeping shots away

    Didn’t happen

    On 5-on-5 shot attempts, Anaheim had 39.7 per 60. The league average is 56.4 per 60, and they came in at 61.4 per 60.

    61.4 per 60
    Coming in
    39.7 per 60
    In this game
    56.4 per 60
    League average

  2. Before the game

    The Panthers shut down the dangerous stuff; the Ducks don’t

    The Panthers are one of the league’s best for preventing dangerous shots, at the sheltered end; the Ducks are near the bottom of the league, at the exposed end. Expect that gap to show.

    The call The Panthers prevent dangerous shots better than the Ducks do.

    Preventing dangerous shots: Florida 5th, Anaheim 27th

    Held up

    On how dangerous the average shot allowed was, Florida had 4.5% a shot and Anaheim 6.0% a shot. Coming in, Florida was at 6.0% a shot and Anaheim at 6.5% a shot.

    Called it, and then some. Anaheim’s shots at 5-on-5 were less dangerous than usual: a 4.5% chance of scoring on the average shot, against their usual 6.4% (league average 6.3%). A team strays this far about once every 20 games.

    FLA 6.0% a shot · ANA 6.5% a shot
    Coming in
    FLA 4.5% a shot · ANA 6.0% a shot
    In this game

Each call is checked by a rule set before the game. Held up: the team reached their usual level. Partly: they fell short of their usual level but still beat the league average. When a call says one team will come out ahead, held up means they won by at least half their usual gap, and partly means they won by less. One game is a small sample, so a miss doesn’t mean the preview was wrong about the team.

Read the full preview as it stood at puck drop.

This season so far: 87 held up, 11 partly, 62 didn’t happen, out of 160 graded calls. See the track record.

Run it back

We replayed this game’s chances 100 times. Here is how often each team came out ahead.

Florida usually wins this one

Played out 100 times with these chances, Florida wins 82. The goals went the other way.

82%
Florida: 75 wins, plus half of the 14 ties
18%
Anaheim: 11 wins, plus half of the 14 ties

Florida had 40 chances worth 3.0 expected goals. Anaheim had 21 chances worth 1.2 expected goals.

How it works: every shot in regulation that was on target or missed the net goes in as often as our expected-goals model says it should, and the game is played out 100 times that way. A rebound scramble counts as one chance, and empty-net shots are left out. A replay tied after regulation counts as half a win each, since overtime and shootouts are close to coin flips.

It doesn’t know about goalies, finishing skill or passes before a shot. It also favours the team that was chasing, because a team with a lead tends to sit back. Over the last three seasons, teams it gave 80% or more won about two games in three.

What the preview didn’t see coming

The parts of this game furthest from how these teams usually play, biggest first.

Broke the pattern: a team did the opposite of their usual habit. Further than usual: a usual habit, taken much further. Closer than usual: a usual strength or weakness that mostly disappeared. Out of character: a usually average team, far from average. Each is measured against the teams’ numbers before the game.

The numbers

How the game went, beyond the score.

FloridaAnaheim
Goals23
Shots on goal3120
Expected goals3.52.4
Shot attempts at 5-on-55031
Power plays0 of 43 of 4

Swing

How far each player swung tonight’s result, for his team or against it.

The biggest swings: M. Granlund +0.9, B. Sennecke +0.9 and C. Gauthier +0.7.

Showhighlighting

The number is roughly in goals: what he added to his team tonight, or cost it. Tap a player to see where it came from. The label beside it is his report card from “Did they do their job?” below; L1 to L4 and P1 to P3 are tonight’s lines and pairs.

How Swing is worked outHide how Swing is worked out

Scoresheet: each goal is shared 40% to the scorer, 35% to the first assist and 25% to the second, plus a quarter of the expected goals of his own shots. A penalty drawn adds 0.16 and one taken costs 0.16, what a power play is worth on average; each faceoff won or lost moves it by 0.006.

5-on-5 counts most: expected goals for minus against with him on, half compared with league average (adjusted for score and venue) and half compared with his own team when he was on the bench, plus a smaller amount for actual goals. A player on a losing team can score well if his line held its own. Special teams: power-play and penalty-kill time compared with a league-average unit.

Company kept (counted inside 5-on-5): from every player’s 5-on-5 impact over the two seasons before, a player out with strong linemates against weak opponents gives a little back, and the reverse earns a little. Goalies: goals saved above expected. Empty-net shots and shootouts are left out. One game is a small sample: this says who swung this result, not who is better.

Did they do their job?

What each player is relied on for or better than most at, and whether he delivered.

Show
  • S. JonesMixed night
    Defense
    28:35
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.6–0.4
    Shots
    4
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    1
    • ✓Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play7.5typical 7.2
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill16.6typical 5.4
  • M. TkachukMixed night
    Left wing
    23:28
    G
    0
    A
    1
    +/−
    +1
    xGF–xGA
    0.9–0.6
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    0
    • ≈Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play7.3typical 7.8
    • ✓Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-53.7typical 2.4
    • ✕Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-52typical 4
  • S. ReinhartDid his job
    Center
    22:19
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.6–0.4
    Shots
    3
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play7.5typical 7.2
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill9.5typical 5.5
    • ✓Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-51.8typical 2.2
  • S. BennettDid his job
    Center
    21:52
    G
    0
    A
    1
    +/−
    +1
    xGF–xGA
    0.9–0.4
    Shots
    4
    Hits
    2
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play5.8typical 7.3
    • ✓Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.29typical 0.15
    • ✓Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-54typical 3
  • G. ForslingMixed night
    Defense
    20:25
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.5–0.6
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    2
    • ✕Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-51.6typical 2.4
    • ✓Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-52.1typical 2.3
    • –Kills penalties Relied onToo little time to judge
  • N. MikkolaOff night
    Defense
    20:17
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.6–0.1
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    2
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill16.3typical 5.3
Show 11 more Florida playersHide the other Florida players
  • C. VerhaegheDid his job
    Center
    19:18
    G
    1
    A
    0
    +/−
    +2
    xGF–xGA
    0.9–0.6
    Shots
    3
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play9.4typical 7.2
    • ✓Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-53.7typical 2.5
    • ✓Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-54typical 3
  • D. KulikovOff night
    Defense
    17:49
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.6–0.4
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    1
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill8.1typical 6.9
  • A. LundellDid his job
    Center
    17:33
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    +1
    xGF–xGA
    0.4–0.1
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play8.7typical 6.8
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill17.8typical 6.3
    • ✓Faceoffs Better than mostfaceoffs won11 of 17typical 54%
  • E. LuostarinenDid his job
    Center
    16:12
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    +1
    xGF–xGA
    0.4–0.3
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    2
    • ✓Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-51.4typical 2.2
    • ✓Blocking shots Better than mostblocked shots2typical 1
    • –Kills penalties Relied onToo little time to judge
  • B. TkachukDid his job
    Left wing
    16:02
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.5–0.0
    Shots
    4
    Hits
    4
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play6.1typical 7.3
    • ✓Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-53.1typical 2.8
    • ✓Faceoffs Better than mostfaceoffs won5 of 8typical 58%
  • R. GudasDid his job
    Defense
    15:47
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    +1
    xGF–xGA
    1.0–0.2
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    3
    • ≈Hitting Better than mosthits1typical 3
    • ✓Blocking shots Better than mostblocked shots3typical 1
    • ✓Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-54typical 3
  • U. BalinskisOff night
    Defense
    14:40
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    +2
    xGF–xGA
    0.8–0.1
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Hitting Better than mosthits0typical 2
  • S. VilmanisDid his job
    Left wing
    13:38
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.5–0.1
    Shots
    4
    Hits
    3
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Hitting Better than mosthits3typical 3
  • B. MarchandDid his job
    Left wing
    13:10
    G
    1
    A
    0
    +/−
    +1
    xGF–xGA
    0.5–0.3
    Shots
    3
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-52.7typical 2.5
    • ✓Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-54typical 3
    • ✓Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.25typical 0.11
  • G. HathawayMixed night
    Right wing
    9:30
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.2–0.0
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    6
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill7.4typical 6.1
    • ✓Hitting Better than mosthits6typical 4
    • ≈Blocking shots Better than mostblocked shots0typical 1
  • B. ImamaDid his job
    Left wing
    7:45
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.1–0.0
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    4
    Blocks
    1
    • ✓Hitting Better than mosthits4typical 2
How the cards are gradedHide how the cards are graded

✓ a typical night for him in the ice time he got (the level he reaches in about half his games). ≈ beat an average player at his position, a typical power play or kill, or his own team with him off the ice. ✕ neither. Power-play and penalty-kill results count half, since five players share them.

Huge night: a hat trick or four or more points. Big night: two or more points, or a goal from a player who scores in fewer than one game in five on top of doing his jobs. Rough night: no points while the other team had 70% or more of the 5-on-5 chances with him on (xGF–xGA). Plus-minus never sets the level. A shorthanded goal counts as two points. Points never fully cover for jobs that went badly: with his jobs off, a huge night reads big and a big night reads mixed.

Judged only from games before this one; 5-on-5 rates adjusted for score and venue. One game is a small sample: even a strong player misses a typical night about half the time. Both teams: 46 ✓, 4 ≈, 23 ✕.

Somewhere new

Things they aren’t known for, far beyond their usual pace.

A night this big would happen less than one game in fifty at his usual pace, and is at least twice what an average player at his position would manage.

In net

Each goalie’s night: the goals he stopped beyond what the shots were worth, and the dangerous and routine saves.

  • J. MarkstromDid his job
    Goalie
    63:43
    Shots
    20
    Saves
    17
    Sv%
    .850
    xGA
    2.4
    GSAx
    −0.6
    Dangerous
    4/6
    • ✕Saving more than expected goals saved above expected-0.6typical -0.1
    • ✓Dangerous shots saves on shots with a 15%+ chance4 of 6typically saves 4 of 6
    • ✓Routine shots saves on shots under a 15% chance13 of 14typically saves 13 of 14
  • L. DostalBig night

    29 saves on 31 shots, +1.5 goals saved above expected.

    Goalie
    63:43
    Shots
    31
    Saves
    29
    Sv%
    .935
    xGA
    3.5
    GSAx
    +1.5
    Dangerous
    5/7
    • ✓Saving more than expected goals saved above expected+1.5typical +0.2
    • ✓Dangerous shots saves on shots with a 15%+ chance5 of 7typically saves 5 of 7
    • ✓Routine shots saves on shots under a 15% chance24 of 24typically saves 22 of 24

Every goalie has the same three jobs, judged against his own earlier starts (✓) and an average goalie (≈). Huge night: a shutout on 25 or more shots, or 3+ goals saved above expected. Big night: any other shutout, or 1.5+. Rough night: 2+ goals worse than expected, or pulled early after three or more.

Empty-net shots are left out. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie beaten by cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really was.

Team pages: Florida Panthers · Anaheim Ducks