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CHI

Chicago Blackhawks

1-3-0

NYI

New York Islanders

1-2-0

Has last change

Thursday, October 8

7:30 PM ET · UBS Arena

The short version

Before the game

Turnovers could swing this one

The Blackhawks come in at 1-3-0, the Islanders at 1-2-0. The Islanders have controlled the play far better over recent games and have home ice. Chicago can make it interesting if they pounce on loose pucks.

The Blackhawks come in at 1-3-0, the Islanders at 1-2-0. The Islanders have controlled the play far better over recent games and have home ice. Chicago can pull it off if they pounce on loose pucks.

The Blackhawks pounce on loose pucks, and the Islanders cough them up. The Islanders and the Blackhawks sit at opposite ends for depth.

Who to watch

  • Owns themSimon Holmstrom has a point in five straight games against Chicago.
  • Leads the wayAnton Frondell leads the Blackhawks with four points.

  1. Turnovers could swing this one

    The Islanders give up more dangerous chances after losing the puck than most, and the Blackhawks pounce.

    The call The Blackhawks get at least their usual 7.6% of their 5-on-5 chances right after winning the puck.

    Chicago 8th for chances off turnovers (7.6% of their chances come right after winning the puck) · NY Islanders 31st for avoiding breakdowns

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 3 games this season

  2. Depth against star power

    The Islanders are one of the league’s best for depth, at the deep end; the Blackhawks are near the bottom of the league, at the top-heavy end. Expect that gap to show.

    The call The Islanders spread their forward ice time deeper down the lineup than the Blackhawks.

    Depth: NY Islanders 2nd, Chicago 23rd

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 3 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Chicago and NY Islanders play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Chicago BlackhawksNew York IslandersLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 4 and 3 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 4 games for Chicago, 3 for NY Islanders. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Chicago: 45.3 shot attempts per 6031st of 32

      Chicago: 41.0 shot attempts per 6031st of 32

    • NY Islanders: 54.3 shot attempts per 6023rd of 32

      NY Islanders: 52.3 shot attempts per 6022nd of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Chicago: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot29th of 32

      Chicago: a 5.3% chance of scoring on the average shot29th of 32

    • NY Islanders: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot17th of 32

      NY Islanders: a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot14th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Chicago: 10.3% of chances come from rebounds13th of 32

      Chicago: 11.0% of chances come from rebounds14th of 32

    • NY Islanders: 10.5% of chances come from rebounds5th of 32

      NY Islanders: 8.8% of chances come from rebounds19th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Chicago: 7.6% of chances come right after a turnover8th of 32

      Chicago: 4.2% of chances come right after a turnover25th of 32

    • NY Islanders: 6.9% of chances come right after a turnover26th of 32

      NY Islanders: 15.5% of chances come right after a turnover3rd of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Chicago: 35.8% of shot attempts come from defensemen11th of 32

      Chicago: 34.3% of shot attempts come from defensemen16th of 32

    • NY Islanders: 37.3% of shot attempts come from defensemen5th of 32

      NY Islanders: 33.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen17th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Chicago: 26.4% of shots come from within 20 feet32nd of 32

      Chicago: 24.1% of shots come from within 20 feet30th of 32

    • NY Islanders: 30.5% of shots come from within 20 feet16th of 32

      NY Islanders: 35.6% of shots come from within 20 feet6th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Chicago: 61.5 shot attempts allowed per 6029th of 32

      Chicago: 65.3 shot attempts allowed per 6029th of 32

    • NY Islanders: 58.9 shot attempts allowed per 6022nd of 32

      NY Islanders: 59.5 shot attempts allowed per 6022nd of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Chicago: a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot against19th of 32

      Chicago: a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot against23rd of 32

    • NY Islanders: a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot against21st of 32

      NY Islanders: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against11th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Chicago: 0.37 defensive breakdowns per 606th of 32

      Chicago: 0.59 defensive breakdowns per 6022nd of 32

    • NY Islanders: 0.49 defensive breakdowns per 6031st of 32

      NY Islanders: 0.91 defensive breakdowns per 6027th of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Chicago: +0.10 goals saved above expected per 6016th of 32

      Chicago: −0.41 goals saved above expected per 6023rd of 32

    • NY Islanders: +0.20 goals saved above expected per 603rd of 32

      NY Islanders: +1.56 goals saved above expected per 601st of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Chicago: 82.4 shots per 60, both teams combined14th of 32

      Chicago: 83.2 shots per 60, both teams combined9th of 32

    • NY Islanders: 82.9 shots per 60, both teams combined12th of 32

      NY Islanders: 83.1 shots per 60, both teams combined10th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Chicago: forecheck score 83 (100 is league average)28th of 32Chicago: 18.7 forecheck plays recorded per 6029th of 32

      Chicago: forecheck score 85 (100 is league average)20th of 32Chicago: 20.8 forecheck plays recorded per 6024th of 32

    • NY Islanders: forecheck score 90 (100 is league average)24th of 32NY Islanders: 21.0 forecheck plays recorded per 6022nd of 32

      NY Islanders: forecheck score 81 (100 is league average)25th of 32NY Islanders: 21.3 forecheck plays recorded per 6023rd of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Chicago: hit score 76 (100 is league average)31st of 32Chicago: 19.9 hits recorded per 6030th of 32

      Chicago: hit score 71 (100 is league average)30th of 32Chicago: 20.8 hits recorded per 6029th of 32

    • NY Islanders: hit score 98 (100 is league average)18th of 32NY Islanders: 26.1 hits recorded per 6020th of 32

      NY Islanders: hit score 101 (100 is league average)17th of 32NY Islanders: 30.4 hits recorded per 6017th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Chicago: 41.0% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six23rd of 32

      Chicago: 41.8% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six19th of 32

    • NY Islanders: 44.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six2nd of 32

      NY Islanders: 45.7% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six2nd of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Chicago: 6.1 expected goals per 60 on the power play31st of 32

      Chicago: 4.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play29th of 32

    • NY Islanders: 6.7 expected goals per 60 on the power play29th of 32

      NY Islanders: 5.9 expected goals per 60 on the power play21st of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Chicago: 7.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded15th of 32

      Chicago: 6.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded13th of 32

    • NY Islanders: 8.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded30th of 32

      NY Islanders: 9.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded24th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Chicago: 1.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded13th of 32

      Chicago: 3.4 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded1st of 32

    • NY Islanders: 1.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded2nd of 32

      NY Islanders: 2.6 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded3rd of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Chicago: 0.09 more penalties taken than drawn per 6024th of 32

      Chicago: 0.50 more penalties taken than drawn per 6023rd of 32

    • NY Islanders: 0.11 more penalties drawn than taken per 606th of 32

      NY Islanders: 0.33 more penalties taken than drawn per 6021st of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

NY Islanders is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (4 and 3 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Chicago Blackhawks

New York Islanders

Worth knowing

  • Chicago T. Teravainen is no longer playing on the power play: 0% of the team’s power-play time in 3 games, down from 58% last season.
  • NY Islanders K. Palmieri is no longer killing penalties: 0% of the team’s shorthanded time in 3 games, down from 37% last season.

Who NY Islanders is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one NY Islanders group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Chicago’s, named in each box.

Chicago’s lines tonightL1 Kane · Nazar · KantserovL2 Greenway · Smith · GreeneL3 Teravainen · Bertuzzi · FrondellL4 Donato · Lardis · Moore

NY Islanders forward lines against Chicago forward lines

  • L1Palmieri · Horvat · HeinemanCHI L145%CHI L224%CHI L326%CHI L46%
  • L2Schenn · Ritchie · EklundCHI L132%CHI L26%CHI L337%CHI L426%
  • L3Pageau · Duclair · HolmstromCHI L112%CHI L261%CHI L319%CHI L49%
  • L4Cizikas · Palat · MaccelliCHI L127%CHI L225%CHI L330%CHI L418%

NY Islanders defense pairs against Chicago forward lines

  • P1Pelech · SchaeferCHI L121%CHI L250%CHI L322%CHI L47%
  • P2DeAngelo · StanleyCHI L120%CHI L215%CHI L338%CHI L428%
  • P3Pulock · RomanovCHI L164%CHI L211%CHI L320%CHI L45%

Based on 1 NY Islanders home game this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Chicago power play against NY Islanders penalty kill

  • Chicago power play

    6.1 expected goals per 60 · 31st of 32

  • NY Islanders penalty kill

    8.5 expected goals allowed per 60 · 30th of 32

Chicago power play

PP177% of the time

Creates 5.4 expected goals per 60

  • B. ByramQuarterback
  • P. Kane
  • R. Kantserov
  • T. BertuzziTrigger
  • A. Frondellboth units

PP223% of the time

Creates 7.8 expected goals per 60

  • S. RinzelQuarterback
  • A. Frondellboth units
  • N. Lardis
  • O. Moore
  • R. DonatoTrigger

 

Where Chicago’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

NY Islanders penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

S. Knight58 starts · 1674 shots, this season and last

+15.8 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.981 828 shots
Medium-danger save %
.855 602 shots
High-danger save %
.746 244 shots
Shots faced per 60
28.9
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.38
Quality starts
50%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesS. KnightA. SoderblomI. SorokinS. Varlamov

I. Sorokin57 starts · 1593 shots, this season and last

+31.2 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.974 781 shots
Medium-danger save %
.877 554 shots
High-danger save %
.775 258 shots
Shots faced per 60
28.6
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.43
Quality starts
54%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • S. Knight: +15.8 goals saved above expected in 58 starts
    • I. Sorokin: +31.2 goals saved above expected in 57 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • S. Knight: 28.9 shots faced per 60
    • I. Sorokin: 28.6 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • S. Knight: the average shot he faces has a 7.0% chance of going in
    • I. Sorokin: the average shot he faces has a 7.3% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • S. Knight: 0.38 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • I. Sorokin: 0.43 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • S. Knight: a typical wait of 70 seconds between shots
    • I. Sorokin: a typical wait of 70 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • S. Knight: a quality start 50% of the time
    • I. Sorokin: a quality start 54% of the time

S. Knight, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

I. Sorokin, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

S. Knight3 starts · 91 shots, this season

+0.3 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
1.000 40 shots
Medium-danger save %
.838 37 shots
High-danger save %
.714 14 shots
Shots faced per 60
30.5
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
33%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesS. KnightA. SoderblomI. SorokinS. Varlamov

I. Sorokin2 starts · 63 shots, this season

+4.0 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
1.000 32 shots
Medium-danger save %
.962 26 shots
High-danger save %
.800 5 shots
Shots faced per 60
32.1
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.51
Quality starts
100%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • S. Knight: +0.3 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
    • I. Sorokin: +4.0 goals saved above expected in 2 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • S. Knight: 30.5 shots faced per 60
    • I. Sorokin: 32.1 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • S. Knight: the average shot he faces has a 7.0% chance of going in
    • I. Sorokin: the average shot he faces has a 6.4% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • S. Knight: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • I. Sorokin: 0.51 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • S. Knight: a typical wait of 68 seconds between shots
    • I. Sorokin: a typical wait of 71 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • S. Knight: a quality start 33% of the time
    • I. Sorokin: a quality start 100% of the time

S. Knight, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

I. Sorokin, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
ChicagoNY IslandersLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play59.4%55.7%
  • Power play18.3%17.3%
  • Rebound7.8%6.8%
  • Empty net5%3%
  • Off a turnover4.6%2.5%
  • Goalie pulled0.5%6.3%
  • Shorthanded2.3%4.6%
  • Off a faceoff win2.3%3.8%

219 Chicago goals and 237 NY Islanders goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play66.7%44.4%
  • Power play11.1%22.2%
  • Rebound0%0%
  • Empty net22.2%0%
  • Off a turnover0%11.1%
  • Goalie pulled0%0%
  • Shorthanded0%22.2%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

9 Chicago goals and 9 NY Islanders goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Chicago Blackhawks · New York Islanders