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final

NYI2

New York Islanders

NYR5

New York Rangers

Tuesday, October 6

Final · Madison Square Garden

The short version

What happened

A hat trick for Lafrenière

Oliver Bjorkstrand scored twice, opening the scoring midway through the first. Alexis Lafrenière scored three.

The score was fair. Replay this game’s chances a hundred times and the Rangers win about seven in ten.

What it means

  • StreakFour straight wins for the Rangers.
  • FinallyOliver Bjorkstrand scored his first goal of the season.
  • The previewTwo of the preview’s three calls held.

Our pre-game read

The win chance our model worked out before the game, kept off the site until now.

We had this close to even (41% for NY Islanders), and it went NY Rangers’s way.

Two even teams on neutral ice50%
Home ice−4 points46%
Recent chances+4 points51%
Who's been playing−10 points41%
Back-to-back0 points41%
Our chance for NY Islanders the morning of the game41%
Tonight's lineup0 points
At puck drop, once the lineups were known41%

Recent chances: how much better each team’s chances have been than their opponents’ lately, with the latest games counting most. Who’s been playing: whether the players who dressed last time were stronger or weaker than the ones behind those recent games, so a star who is out or back counts straight away. Back-to-back: playing for the second night in a row. Tonight’s lineup: any change in who dressed since the last game. Only earlier games went into it, and the preview hinted at it in words without showing the number.

We had this close to even (59% for NY Rangers), and NY Rangers came through.

Two even teams on neutral ice50%
Home ice+4 points54%
Recent chances−4 points49%
Who's been playing+10 points59%
Back-to-back0 points59%
Our chance for NY Rangers the morning of the game59%
Tonight's lineup0 points
At puck drop, once the lineups were known59%

Recent chances: how much better each team’s chances have been than their opponents’ lately, with the latest games counting most. Who’s been playing: whether the players who dressed last time were stronger or weaker than the ones behind those recent games, so a star who is out or back counts straight away. Back-to-back: playing for the second night in a row. Tonight’s lineup: any change in who dressed since the last game. Only earlier games went into it, and the preview hinted at it in words without showing the number.

What the preview said, and what happened

Of the 3 calls the preview made, 2 held up, 1 partly did, and 0 didn’t happen.

  1. Before the game

    Watch the Islanders’ puck management

    The Rangers turn stolen pucks into chances, and the Islanders are one of the league’s worst at avoiding breakdowns. A sloppy pass or two could cost the Islanders.

    The call The Rangers get at least their usual 7.5% of their 5-on-5 chances right after winning the puck.

    NY Rangers 10th for chances off turnovers (7.5% of their chances come right after winning the puck) · NY Islanders 31st for avoiding breakdowns

    Held up

    18.3% of NY Rangers’s 5-on-5 chances came right after winning the puck, against their usual 7.5%.

    7.5%
    Coming in
    18.3%
    In this game
    7.3%
    League average

  2. Before the game

    The Rangers’ power play has a target

    The Islanders’ penalty kill is one of the league’s worst, and the Rangers’ power play is near the top of the league. Discipline matters more than usual for the Islanders tonight.

    The call The Rangers’ power play creates at least their usual 7.7 expected goals per 60.

    NY Rangers 10th for power play (7.7 expected goals per 60) · NY Islanders 30th for penalty kill

    Held up

    NY Rangers’s power play created 25.7 expected goals per 60 in 3:52 of 5-on-4 time, against their usual 7.7, and scored 1 goal.

    Called it, and then some. NY Rangers’s power play created 25.7 expected goals per 60, against their usual 7.7 and a league average of 7.5. A team strays this far about once every 800 games.

    7.7 per 60
    Coming in
    25.7 per 60
    In this game
    7.5 per 60
    League average

  3. Before the game

    Bodies will fly

    The Islanders and the Rangers are both among the league’s heaviest hitters, even after adjusting for each arena’s scorer. Keep your head up.

    The call The two teams’ combined hit score reaches their usual 112.

    Hit score (100 is league average): NY Islanders 107 (9th), NY Rangers 118 (2nd)

    Partly

    The two teams’ combined hit score was 108, against their usual 112 (100 is league average, after adjusting for the arena’s scorer).

    hit score 112
    Coming in
    hit score 108
    In this game
    hit score 100
    League average

Each call is checked by a rule set before the game. Held up: the team reached their usual level. Partly: they fell short of their usual level but still beat the league average. When a call says one team will come out ahead, held up means they won by at least half their usual gap, and partly means they won by less. One game is a small sample, so a miss doesn’t mean the preview was wrong about the team.

Read the full preview as it stood at puck drop.

This season so far: 87 held up, 11 partly, 62 didn’t happen, out of 160 graded calls. See the track record.

Run it back

We replayed this game’s chances 100 times. Here is how often each team came out ahead.

NY Rangers earned this one

Played out 100 times with these chances, NY Rangers wins 72.

28%
NY Islanders: 20 wins, plus half of the 15 ties
72%
NY Rangers: 64 wins, plus half of the 15 ties

NY Islanders had 30 chances worth 2.3 expected goals. NY Rangers had 38 chances worth 3.6 expected goals.

How it works: every shot in regulation that was on target or missed the net goes in as often as our expected-goals model says it should, and the game is played out 100 times that way. A rebound scramble counts as one chance, and empty-net shots are left out. A replay tied after regulation counts as half a win each, since overtime and shootouts are close to coin flips.

It doesn’t know about goalies, finishing skill or passes before a shot. It also favours the team that was chasing, because a team with a lead tends to sit back. Over the last three seasons, teams it gave 80% or more won about two games in three.

What the preview didn’t see coming

The parts of this game furthest from how these teams usually play, biggest first.

Broke the pattern: a team did the opposite of their usual habit. Further than usual: a usual habit, taken much further. Closer than usual: a usual strength or weakness that mostly disappeared. Out of character: a usually average team, far from average. Each is measured against the teams’ numbers before the game.

The numbers

How the game went, beyond the score.

NY IslandersNY Rangers
Goals25
Shots on goal1924
Expected goals2.43.6
Shot attempts at 5-on-53540
Power plays1 of 41 of 3

Swing

How far each player swung tonight’s result, for his team or against it.

The biggest swings: A. Lafrenière +1.3, M. Zibanejad +1.0 and O. Bjorkstrand +1.0.

Showhighlighting

The number is roughly in goals: what he added to his team tonight, or cost it. Tap a player to see where it came from. The label beside it is his report card from “Did they do their job?” below; L1 to L4 and P1 to P3 are tonight’s lines and pairs.

How Swing is worked outHide how Swing is worked out

Scoresheet: each goal is shared 40% to the scorer, 35% to the first assist and 25% to the second, plus a quarter of the expected goals of his own shots. A penalty drawn adds 0.16 and one taken costs 0.16, what a power play is worth on average; each faceoff won or lost moves it by 0.006.

5-on-5 counts most: expected goals for minus against with him on, half compared with league average (adjusted for score and venue) and half compared with his own team when he was on the bench, plus a smaller amount for actual goals. A player on a losing team can score well if his line held its own. Special teams: power-play and penalty-kill time compared with a league-average unit.

Company kept (counted inside 5-on-5): from every player’s 5-on-5 impact over the two seasons before, a player out with strong linemates against weak opponents gives a little back, and the reverse earns a little. Goalies: goals saved above expected. Empty-net shots and shootouts are left out. One game is a small sample: this says who swung this result, not who is better.

Did they do their job?

What each player is relied on for or better than most at, and whether he delivered.

Show
  • M. SchaeferMixed night
    Defense
    25:03
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −2
    xGF–xGA
    0.6–1.2
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    1
    • ✓Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play8.9typical 6.4
    • ✓Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.10typical 0.06
    • ✕Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-52.0typical 2.4
  • A. PelechMixed night
    Defense
    20:56
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    0.5–0.6
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    1
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill17.3typical 7.4
    • ✓Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-52.0typical 2.4
    • ✕Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-50typical 3
  • L. StanleyMixed night
    Defense
    19:21
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.3–0.4
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    2
    Blocks
    2
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill22.2typical 5.8
    • ✓Hitting Better than mosthits2typical 2
    • ✕Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-52typical 3
  • T. DeAngeloMixed night
    Defense
    18:12
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    0.3–0.4
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    2
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play1.8typical 5.7
    • ✓Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.12typical 0.04
    • ≈Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-52typical 3
  • B. HorvatOff night
    Center
    17:49
    G
    1
    A
    0
    +/−
    −2
    xGF–xGA
    0.3–0.5
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play9.6typical 6.7
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill42.6typical 7.0
    • ✕Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-51typical 3
  • E. HeinemanDid his job
    Left wing
    16:40
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.5–0.7
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    4
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Hitting Better than mosthits4typical 2
    • –Power play Relied onToo little time to judge
Show 11 more NY Islanders playersHide the other NY Islanders players
  • K. PalmieriOff night
    Center
    16:37
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −2
    xGF–xGA
    0.3–0.7
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play8.9typical 6.9
    • ✕Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-51typical 2
  • R. PulockDid his job
    Defense
    16:32
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    0.8–0.7
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    1
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill25.3typical 7.8
    • ✓Blocking shots Better than mostblocked shots1typical 1
  • B. SchennBig night

    2 assists.

    Center
    16:16
    G
    0
    A
    2
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.6–0.5
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    2
    • ✓Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play8.2typical 6.1
    • ✓Faceoffs Better than mostfaceoffs won5 of 8typical 53%
    • ≈Hitting Better than mosthits1typical 3
  • S. HolmstromOff night
    Right wing
    15:11
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −2
    xGF–xGA
    0.0–0.5
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill15.4typical 7.1
  • J. PageauOff night
    Center
    14:50
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −2
    xGF–xGA
    0.1–0.5
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    3
    Blocks
    1
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill15.2typical 7.5
    • ✕Faceoffs Better than mostfaceoffs won7 of 18typical 58%
  • A. DuclairMixed night
    Left wing
    14:32
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −2
    xGF–xGA
    0.4–0.5
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ≈Blocking shots Better than mostblocked shots0typical 1
  • M. MaccelliDid his job
    Left wing
    14:32
    G
    0
    A
    1
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    0.2–0.1
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play9.1typical 6.6
  • C. RitchieMixed night

    A goal from a player who scores in about 1 game in 6, so it counts for more.

    Center
    14:27
    G
    1
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.5–0.6
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play4.3typical 6.4
  • C. CizikasDid his job
    Center
    13:26
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.8–0.2
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-50.8typical 2.3
    • ≈Blocking shots Better than mostblocked shots0typical 1
    • ✓Faceoffs Better than mostfaceoffs won6 of 11typical 54%
  • A. RomanovDid his job
    Defense
    13:20
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    0.7–0.2
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    2
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill44.2typical 6.3
    • ✓Blocking shots Better than mostblocked shots2typical 1
    • ✓Hitting Better than mosthits1typical 1
  • O. PalatDid his job
    Left wing
    11:57
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    0.7–0.1
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    2
    Blocks
    3
    • ✓Blocking shots Better than mostblocked shots3typical 1
    • ✓Hitting Better than mosthits2typical 1
How the cards are gradedHide how the cards are graded

✓ a typical night for him in the ice time he got (the level he reaches in about half his games). ≈ beat an average player at his position, a typical power play or kill, or his own team with him off the ice. ✕ neither. Power-play and penalty-kill results count half, since five players share them.

Huge night: a hat trick or four or more points. Big night: two or more points, or a goal from a player who scores in fewer than one game in five on top of doing his jobs. Rough night: no points while the other team had 70% or more of the 5-on-5 chances with him on (xGF–xGA). Plus-minus never sets the level. A shorthanded goal counts as two points. Points never fully cover for jobs that went badly: with his jobs off, a huge night reads big and a big night reads mixed.

Judged only from games before this one; 5-on-5 rates adjusted for score and venue. One game is a small sample: even a strong player misses a typical night about half the time. Both teams: 41 ✓, 6 ≈, 25 ✕.

In net

Each goalie’s night: the goals he stopped beyond what the shots were worth, and the dangerous and routine saves.

  • S. VarlamovDid his job
    Goalie
    59:26
    Shots
    22
    Saves
    19
    Sv%
    .864
    xGA
    3.6
    GSAx
    +0.7
    Dangerous
    4/4
    • ✓Saving more than expected goals saved above expected+0.6typical +0.0
    • ✓Dangerous shots saves on shots with a 15%+ chance4 of 4typically saves 3 of 4
    • ✕Routine shots saves on shots under a 15% chance15 of 18typically saves 17 of 18
  • I. ShesterkinDid his job
    Goalie
    60:00
    Shots
    19
    Saves
    17
    Sv%
    .895
    xGA
    2.4
    GSAx
    +0.4
    Dangerous
    1/2
    • ≈Saving more than expected goals saved above expected+0.4typical +0.7
    • –Dangerous shots Too few shots to judge
    • ✓Routine shots saves on shots under a 15% chance16 of 17typically saves 16 of 17

Every goalie has the same three jobs, judged against his own earlier starts (✓) and an average goalie (≈). Huge night: a shutout on 25 or more shots, or 3+ goals saved above expected. Big night: any other shutout, or 1.5+. Rough night: 2+ goals worse than expected, or pulled early after three or more.

Empty-net shots are left out. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie beaten by cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really was.

Team pages: New York Islanders · New York Rangers