Real data. Everything on this page is computed from actual games.
Spare Line Change
Numbers from
Hits and takeaways
at

STL

St. Louis Blues

1-2-0

Has last change

The short version

Before the game

Round two in St. Louis

The Sharks already came to St. Louis once this season and left with a 3-2 overtime win. The Blues haven’t won in three. The Sharks are 3-1-0. St. Louis has had more of the chances over recent games and has home ice. San Jose can make it interesting if their penalty kill holds up.

The Sharks already came to St. Louis once this season and left with a 3-2 overtime win. The Blues haven’t won in three. The Sharks are 3-1-0. St. Louis has had more of the chances over recent games and has home ice. San Jose can pull it off if their penalty kill holds up.

Don’t read much into Hofer’s record against the Sharks. The Blues make their shots count, and the Sharks allow dangerous ones.

Who to watch

  • Haunts themMacklin Celebrini has six goals in six games against St. Louis since 2023-24.
  • Slow startRobert Thomas is still looking for his first goal of the season.
  1. Hofer’s rough record against the Sharks is a coincidence

    Since 2023-24, Hofer has been shaky against the Sharks, well below his usual. Fans love a pattern like this, but we checked three seasons of them and they predicted nothing. Expect the usual Hofer.

    The call If Hofer starts, his save percentage lands closer to his usual .914 than to his .877 against the Sharks.

    6 starts against San Jose: .877 save percentage · .914 against everyone else

    Goalie starts since 2023-24 · 6 against San Jose, 2,689 shots against everyone else

  2. The Blues should get some good looks

    The Blues make their shots count, and the Sharks are near the bottom of the league at preventing dangerous shots. Expect the Blues to get some real chances.

    The call The Blues’ average shot has at least their usual 6.7% chance of going in.

    St. Louis 6th for shot quality (a 6.7% chance of scoring on the average shot) · San Jose 23rd for preventing dangerous shots

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 3 and 3 games this season

  3. Don’t blink and you still might miss the shots

    San Jose plays some of the league’s slowest games, and so does St. Louis. We think this one is even quieter than either team’s usual.

    The call The game runs at fewer than 78.4 shots per 60 at 5-on-5, slower than either team’s usual.

    Pace (shots per 60 at 5-on-5, both teams): San Jose 29th (78.4), St. Louis 28th (78.5)

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 3 and 3 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How San Jose and St. Louis play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

San Jose SharksSt. Louis BluesLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 3 and 3 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 3 games for San Jose, 3 for St. Louis. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless
    • San Jose: 47.3 shot attempts per 6030th of 32

      San Jose: 41.8 shot attempts per 6030th of 32

    • St. Louis: 54.5 shot attempts per 6022nd of 32

      St. Louis: 57.5 shot attempts per 6013th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous
    • San Jose: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot21st of 32

      San Jose: a 4.6% chance of scoring on the average shot32nd of 32

    • St. Louis: a 6.7% chance of scoring on the average shot6th of 32

      St. Louis: a 6.7% chance of scoring on the average shot12th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers
    • San Jose: 10.4% of chances come from rebounds11th of 32

      San Jose: 3.7% of chances come from rebounds28th of 32

    • St. Louis: 10.0% of chances come from rebounds29th of 32

      St. Louis: 17.7% of chances come from rebounds5th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist
    • San Jose: 6.9% of chances come right after a turnover27th of 32

      San Jose: 9.0% of chances come right after a turnover13th of 32

    • St. Louis: 7.2% of chances come right after a turnover19th of 32

      St. Louis: 1.7% of chances come right after a turnover28th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D
    • San Jose: 35.2% of shot attempts come from defensemen13th of 32

      San Jose: 39.8% of shot attempts come from defensemen5th of 32

    • St. Louis: 37.5% of shot attempts come from defensemen3rd of 32

      St. Louis: 40.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen2nd of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close
    • San Jose: 30.3% of shots come from within 20 feet19th of 32

      San Jose: 21.1% of shots come from within 20 feet32nd of 32

    • St. Louis: 28.8% of shots come from within 20 feet30th of 32

      St. Louis: 25.8% of shots come from within 20 feet28th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy
    • San Jose: 59.9 shot attempts allowed per 6026th of 32

      San Jose: 64.3 shot attempts allowed per 6028th of 32

    • St. Louis: 55.4 shot attempts allowed per 6012th of 32

      St. Louis: 53.7 shot attempts allowed per 6014th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered
    • San Jose: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against23rd of 32

      San Jose: a 7.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against29th of 32

    • St. Louis: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against5th of 32

      St. Louis: a 5.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against6th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed
    • San Jose: 0.43 defensive breakdowns per 6023rd of 32

      San Jose: 0.82 defensive breakdowns per 6025th of 32

    • St. Louis: 0.39 defensive breakdowns per 6013th of 32

      St. Louis: 0.86 defensive breakdowns per 6026th of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall
    • San Jose: −0.01 goals saved above expected per 6031st of 32

      San Jose: +0.07 goals saved above expected per 6018th of 32

    • St. Louis: +0.09 goals saved above expected per 6019th of 32

      St. Louis: +0.07 goals saved above expected per 6017th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet
    • San Jose: 78.4 shots per 60, both teams combined29th of 32

      San Jose: 73.4 shots per 60, both teams combined27th of 32

    • St. Louis: 78.5 shots per 60, both teams combined28th of 32

      St. Louis: 77.8 shots per 60, both teams combined19th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding
    • San Jose: forecheck score 103 (100 is league average)14th of 32San Jose: 22.7 forecheck plays recorded per 6017th of 32

      San Jose: forecheck score 105 (100 is league average)13th of 32San Jose: 25.4 forecheck plays recorded per 6015th of 32

    • St. Louis: forecheck score 104 (100 is league average)13th of 32St. Louis: 23.8 forecheck plays recorded per 609th of 32

      St. Louis: forecheck score 105 (100 is league average)14th of 32St. Louis: 25.8 forecheck plays recorded per 6014th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising
    • San Jose: hit score 109 (100 is league average)10th of 32San Jose: 26.8 hits recorded per 6016th of 32

      San Jose: hit score 103 (100 is league average)15th of 32San Jose: 28.3 hits recorded per 6019th of 32

    • St. Louis: hit score 105 (100 is league average)12th of 32St. Louis: 27.7 hits recorded per 6012th of 32

      St. Louis: hit score 107 (100 is league average)14th of 32St. Louis: 30.7 hits recorded per 6014th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep
    • San Jose: 41.6% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six17th of 32

      San Jose: 43.2% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six15th of 32

    • St. Louis: 42.9% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six12th of 32

      St. Louis: 42.6% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six16th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal
    • San Jose: 7.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play22nd of 32

      San Jose: 9.2 expected goals per 60 on the power play6th of 32

    • St. Louis: 6.1 expected goals per 60 on the power play32nd of 32

      St. Louis: 4.2 expected goals per 60 on the power play30th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight
    • San Jose: 8.0 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded23rd of 32

      San Jose: 11.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded31st of 32

    • St. Louis: 7.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded17th of 32

      St. Louis: 7.0 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded15th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory
    • San Jose: 0.8 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded18th of 32

      San Jose: 1.2 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded9th of 32

    • St. Louis: 0.7 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded29th of 32

      St. Louis: 0.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded26th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean
    • San Jose: 0.01 more penalties taken than drawn per 6019th of 32

      San Jose: 0.96 more penalties taken than drawn per 6026th of 32

    • St. Louis: 0.05 more penalties taken than drawn per 6020th of 32

      St. Louis: 1.00 more penalties taken than drawn per 6028th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

St. Louis is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (3 and 3 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

San Jose Sharks

St. Louis Blues

Who St. Louis is likely to send against whom

St. Louis has not played at home yet this season, so there is no matching habit to show.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

San Jose power play against St. Louis penalty kill

  • San Jose power play

    7.3 expected goals per 60 · 22nd of 32

  • St. Louis penalty kill

    7.5 expected goals allowed per 60 · 17th of 32

San Jose power play

PP179% of the time

Creates 8.2 expected goals per 60

  • L. CagnoniQuarterback
  • A. WennbergDistributor
  • W. Smith
  • I. ChernyshovNet-front
  • M. CelebriniTrigger

PP221% of the time

Creates 7.0 expected goals per 60

  • D. OrlovQuarterback
  • T. ToffoliTrigger
  • M. Marchment
  • I. Stenberg
  • M. MisaNet-front

 

Where San Jose’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

St. Louis penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

Y. Askarov45 starts · 1429 shots, this season and last

−16.3 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.963 722 shots
Medium-danger save %
.855 511 shots
High-danger save %
.653 196 shots
Shots faced per 60
30.8
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.34
Quality starts
42%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesY. AskarovJ. HoferJ. Binnington

J. Hofer46 starts · 1295 shots, this season and last

+20.8 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.980 711 shots
Medium-danger save %
.873 426 shots
High-danger save %
.696 158 shots
Shots faced per 60
28.3
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.35
Quality starts
63%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • Y. Askarov: −16.3 goals saved above expected in 45 starts
    • J. Hofer: +20.8 goals saved above expected in 46 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • Y. Askarov: 30.8 shots faced per 60
    • J. Hofer: 28.3 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • Y. Askarov: the average shot he faces has a 7.1% chance of going in
    • J. Hofer: the average shot he faces has a 6.8% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • Y. Askarov: 0.34 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Hofer: 0.35 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • Y. Askarov: a typical wait of 65 seconds between shots
    • J. Hofer: a typical wait of 70 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • Y. Askarov: a quality start 42% of the time
    • J. Hofer: a quality start 63% of the time

Y. Askarov, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Hofer, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

Y. Askarov3 starts · 87 shots, this season

+0.2 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.955 44 shots
Medium-danger save %
.828 29 shots
High-danger save %
.643 14 shots
Shots faced per 60
28
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.64
Quality starts
0%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesY. AskarovJ. HoferJ. Binnington

J. Hofer2 starts · 44 shots, this season

+2.6 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
1.000 28 shots
Medium-danger save %
.929 14 shots
High-danger save %
.500 2 shots
Shots faced per 60
22.3
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
100%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • Y. Askarov: +0.2 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
    • J. Hofer: +2.6 goals saved above expected in 2 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • Y. Askarov: 28 shots faced per 60
    • J. Hofer: 22.3 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • Y. Askarov: the average shot he faces has a 8.1% chance of going in
    • J. Hofer: the average shot he faces has a 6.3% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • Y. Askarov: 0.64 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Hofer: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • Y. Askarov: a typical wait of 82 seconds between shots
    • J. Hofer: a typical wait of 80 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • Y. Askarov: a quality start 0% of the time
    • J. Hofer: a quality start 100% of the time

Y. Askarov, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Hofer, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
San JoseSt. LouisLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play53.9%60.3%
  • Power play21.7%15.6%
  • Rebound8.9%4.6%
  • Empty net4.7%6.3%
  • Off a turnover5.4%6.3%
  • Goalie pulled2.3%3%
  • Shorthanded1.6%2.1%
  • Off a faceoff win1.6%1.7%

258 San Jose goals and 237 St. Louis goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play44.4%28.6%
  • Power play22.2%0%
  • Rebound0%14.3%
  • Empty net0%28.6%
  • Off a turnover22.2%14.3%
  • Goalie pulled0%14.3%
  • Shorthanded11.1%0%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

9 San Jose goals and 7 St. Louis goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: San Jose Sharks · St. Louis Blues