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TOR

Toronto Maple Leafs

2-2-0

VGK

Vegas Golden Knights

3-1-0

Has last change

Thursday, October 8

10:00 PM ET · T-Mobile Arena

The short version

Before the game

Round two in Vegas

The Golden Knights won the first meeting this season, 4-3 in a shootout in Vegas. The Golden Knights have won three straight. The Maple Leafs are 2-2-1. Vegas has controlled the play far better over recent games and has home ice. Toronto’s only real way in is pouncing on loose pucks, and they would need a near-perfect night.

The Golden Knights won the first meeting this season, 4-3 in a shootout in Vegas. The Golden Knights have won three straight. The Maple Leafs are 2-2-1. Vegas has controlled the play far better over recent games and has home ice. Toronto could still pull it off if they pounce on loose pucks, but they might need a miracle.

The Maple Leafs aren’t the team you remember for shot volume. Don’t read much into Bobrovsky’s record against the Golden Knights.

Who to watch

  • Hot streakJack Eichel has a point in every game this season.
  • Hot streakVictor Olofsson has a point in every game this season.
  • Old teamMitch Marner faces his old team, Toronto.
  • Old teamColton Sissons faces his old team, Vegas.

  1. Don’t judge the Maple Leafs by last season

    Over this season and last, the Maple Leafs have been near the bottom of the league for shot volume. This season alone they’ve been around the middle of the league, shooting more. We think tonight looks more like this season than the old Maple Leafs.

    The call The Maple Leafs’ shot volume is better than their blended level of 54.1 per 60.

    Shot volume: 24th over two seasons (54.1 per 60), 14th this season (56.8 per 60)

    Style fingerprint · blended and this season only · 4 games this season

  2. Bobrovsky’s record against the Golden Knights is a coincidence

    Bobrovsky has been a wall against the Golden Knights since 2023-24, well above his usual. It looks like a pattern, but across three seasons a goalie’s record against one team told us nothing about the next meeting. Expect the usual Bobrovsky.

    The call If Bobrovsky starts, his save percentage lands closer to his usual .901 than to his .935 against the Golden Knights.

    6 starts against Vegas: .935 save percentage · .901 against everyone else

    Goalie starts since 2023-24 · 6 against Vegas, 4,098 shots against everyone else

  3. The Golden Knights’ power play has a target

    The Golden Knights’ power play is one of the league’s best, and the Maple Leafs’ kill is one of the league’s worst. Every trip to the box hurts the Maple Leafs more than most.

    The call The Golden Knights’ power play creates at least their usual 9.0 expected goals per 60.

    Vegas 2nd for power play (9.0 expected goals per 60) · Toronto 31st for penalty kill

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 4 games this season

  4. Quality over quantity for the Golden Knights

    The Golden Knights make their shots count, and the Maple Leafs are around the middle of the league at preventing dangerous shots. Expect the Golden Knights to get some real chances.

    The call The Golden Knights’ average shot has at least their usual 6.7% chance of going in.

    Vegas 7th for shot quality (a 6.7% chance of scoring on the average shot) · Toronto 22nd for preventing dangerous shots

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 4 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Toronto and Vegas play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Toronto Maple LeafsVegas Golden KnightsLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 4 and 4 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 4 games for Toronto, 4 for Vegas. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Toronto: 54.1 shot attempts per 6024th of 32

      Toronto: 56.8 shot attempts per 6014th of 32

    • Vegas: 60.4 shot attempts per 607th of 32

      Vegas: 63.1 shot attempts per 607th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Toronto: a 6.1% chance of scoring on the average shot24th of 32

      Toronto: a 5.5% chance of scoring on the average shot27th of 32

    • Vegas: a 6.7% chance of scoring on the average shot7th of 32

      Vegas: a 7.0% chance of scoring on the average shot8th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Toronto: 10.1% of chances come from rebounds21st of 32

      Toronto: 3.1% of chances come from rebounds30th of 32

    • Vegas: 10.3% of chances come from rebounds14th of 32

      Vegas: 15.8% of chances come from rebounds7th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Toronto: 8.4% of chances come right after a turnover1st of 32

      Toronto: 1.3% of chances come right after a turnover31st of 32

    • Vegas: 6.7% of chances come right after a turnover31st of 32

      Vegas: 4.6% of chances come right after a turnover24th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Toronto: 31.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen29th of 32

      Toronto: 27.1% of shot attempts come from defensemen32nd of 32

    • Vegas: 35.8% of shot attempts come from defensemen10th of 32

      Vegas: 35.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen11th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Toronto: 31.7% of shots come from within 20 feet4th of 32

      Toronto: 40.2% of shots come from within 20 feet1st of 32

    • Vegas: 31.0% of shots come from within 20 feet11th of 32

      Vegas: 32.6% of shots come from within 20 feet14th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Toronto: 60.3 shot attempts allowed per 6028th of 32

      Toronto: 52.8 shot attempts allowed per 6012th of 32

    • Vegas: 51.1 shot attempts allowed per 603rd of 32

      Vegas: 45.2 shot attempts allowed per 604th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Toronto: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against22nd of 32

      Toronto: an 8.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against31st of 32

    • Vegas: a 6.1% chance of scoring on the average shot against8th of 32

      Vegas: a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot against22nd of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Toronto: 0.43 defensive breakdowns per 6025th of 32

      Toronto: 0.99 defensive breakdowns per 6031st of 32

    • Vegas: 0.38 defensive breakdowns per 609th of 32

      Vegas: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Toronto: +0.05 goals saved above expected per 6025th of 32

      Toronto: +0.74 goals saved above expected per 607th of 32

    • Vegas: +0.04 goals saved above expected per 6027th of 32

      Vegas: −0.34 goals saved above expected per 6021st of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Toronto: 84.3 shots per 60, both teams combined6th of 32

      Toronto: 83.0 shots per 60, both teams combined12th of 32

    • Vegas: 78.9 shots per 60, both teams combined26th of 32

      Vegas: 77.2 shots per 60, both teams combined20th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Toronto: forecheck score 90 (100 is league average)22nd of 32Toronto: 22.6 forecheck plays recorded per 6018th of 32

      Toronto: forecheck score 82 (100 is league average)24th of 32Toronto: 23.4 forecheck plays recorded per 6018th of 32

    • Vegas: forecheck score 82 (100 is league average)29th of 32Vegas: 18.5 forecheck plays recorded per 6030th of 32

      Vegas: forecheck score 73 (100 is league average)29th of 32Vegas: 17.8 forecheck plays recorded per 6030th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Toronto: hit score 90 (100 is league average)24th of 32Toronto: 27.3 hits recorded per 6013th of 32

      Toronto: hit score 78 (100 is league average)27th of 32Toronto: 28.2 hits recorded per 6020th of 32

    • Vegas: hit score 95 (100 is league average)21st of 32Vegas: 25.0 hits recorded per 6022nd of 32

      Vegas: hit score 87 (100 is league average)22nd of 32Vegas: 25.5 hits recorded per 6023rd of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Toronto: 41.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six21st of 32

      Toronto: 40.9% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six22nd of 32

    • Vegas: 42.6% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six15th of 32

      Vegas: 42.3% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six17th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Toronto: 7.8 expected goals per 60 on the power play10th of 32

      Toronto: 8.5 expected goals per 60 on the power play10th of 32

    • Vegas: 9.0 expected goals per 60 on the power play2nd of 32

      Vegas: 10.7 expected goals per 60 on the power play2nd of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Toronto: 8.6 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded31st of 32

      Toronto: 9.7 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded26th of 32

    • Vegas: 6.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded1st of 32

      Vegas: 3.6 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded2nd of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Toronto: 0.8 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded22nd of 32

      Toronto: 0.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded29th of 32

    • Vegas: 0.9 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded15th of 32

      Vegas: 0.9 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded12th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Toronto: 0.18 more penalties taken than drawn per 6029th of 32

      Toronto: 0.74 more penalties drawn than taken per 608th of 32

    • Vegas: 0.26 more penalties drawn than taken per 601st of 32

      Vegas: 0.75 more penalties drawn than taken per 607th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Vegas is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (4 and 4 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Vegas Golden Knights

Worth knowing

  • Toronto O. Ekman-Larsson has started killing penalties: on the ice for 34% of the team’s shorthanded time in 4 games, up from 6% last season.
  • Vegas R. Andersson is no longer killing penalties: 1% of the team’s shorthanded time in 4 games, down from 48% last season.

Who Vegas is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Vegas group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Toronto’s, named in each box.

Toronto’s lines tonightL1 Roslovic · Matthews · MarchenkoL2 Tavares · Nylander · McKennaL3 Sissons · Paul · CowanL4 Blueger · Duhaime · Groulx

Vegas forward lines against Toronto forward lines

  • L1Stone · Barbashev · EichelTOR L118%TOR L237%TOR L327%TOR L419%
  • L2Karlsson · Marner · HowdenTOR L134%TOR L216%TOR L331%TOR L419%
  • L3Hertl · Olofsson · ConnellyTOR L117%TOR L228%TOR L315%TOR L440%
  • L4Dowd · Gatcomb · BowmanTOR L147%TOR L239%TOR L310%TOR L44%

Vegas defense pairs against Toronto forward lines

  • P1Hanifin · LauzonTOR L129%TOR L226%TOR L329%TOR L416%
  • P2McNabb · TheodoreTOR L124%TOR L234%TOR L313%TOR L429%
  • P3Andersson · WotherspoonTOR L132%TOR L227%TOR L323%TOR L418%

Based on 2 Vegas home games this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Toronto power play against Vegas penalty kill

  • Toronto power play

    7.8 expected goals per 60 · 10th of 32

  • Vegas penalty kill

    6.5 expected goals allowed per 60 · 1st of 32

Toronto power play

PP173% of the time

Creates 8.1 expected goals per 60

  • D. RaddyshQuarterback
  • A. Matthews
  • K. Marchenko
  • W. NylanderDistributor
  • J. TavaresTrigger

PP227% of the time

Creates 7.3 expected goals per 60

  • M. RiellyQuarterback
  • G. McKenna
  • J. Roslovic
  • N. Paul
  • E. CowanTrigger

 

Where Toronto’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Vegas penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

S. Bobrovsky51 starts · 1303 shots, this season and last

−17.2 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.969 676 shots
Medium-danger save %
.845 420 shots
High-danger save %
.643 207 shots
Shots faced per 60
25
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.29
Quality starts
55%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesS. BobrovskyA. StolarzC. HartA. Hill

C. Hart19 starts · 495 shots, this season and last

−2.6 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.961 256 shots
Medium-danger save %
.870 185 shots
High-danger save %
.630 54 shots
Shots faced per 60
24.8
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.2
Quality starts
63%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • S. Bobrovsky: −17.2 goals saved above expected in 51 starts
    • C. Hart: −2.6 goals saved above expected in 19 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • S. Bobrovsky: 25 shots faced per 60
    • C. Hart: 24.8 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • S. Bobrovsky: the average shot he faces has a 7.0% chance of going in
    • C. Hart: the average shot he faces has a 6.9% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • S. Bobrovsky: 0.29 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • C. Hart: 0.2 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • S. Bobrovsky: a typical wait of 82 seconds between shots
    • C. Hart: a typical wait of 73 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • S. Bobrovsky: a quality start 55% of the time
    • C. Hart: a quality start 63% of the time

S. Bobrovsky, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

C. Hart, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

S. Bobrovsky2 starts · 53 shots, this season

+1.3 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.962 26 shots
Medium-danger save %
.889 18 shots
High-danger save %
.667 9 shots
Shots faced per 60
27
Defensive breakdowns per 60
1.02
Quality starts
50%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesS. BobrovskyA. StolarzC. HartA. Hill

C. Hart3 starts · 73 shots, this season

−0.9 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
1.000 39 shots
Medium-danger save %
.741 27 shots
High-danger save %
.857 7 shots
Shots faced per 60
24.7
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
67%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • S. Bobrovsky: +1.3 goals saved above expected in 2 starts
    • C. Hart: −0.9 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • S. Bobrovsky: 27 shots faced per 60
    • C. Hart: 24.7 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • S. Bobrovsky: the average shot he faces has a 9.1% chance of going in
    • C. Hart: the average shot he faces has a 6.7% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • S. Bobrovsky: 1.02 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • C. Hart: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • S. Bobrovsky: a typical wait of 57 seconds between shots
    • C. Hart: a typical wait of 75 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • S. Bobrovsky: a quality start 50% of the time
    • C. Hart: a quality start 67% of the time

S. Bobrovsky, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

C. Hart, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
TorontoVegasLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play57.8%51.8%
  • Power play16%21.6%
  • Rebound7.6%9.8%
  • Empty net7.2%4.8%
  • Off a turnover6.5%4.2%
  • Goalie pulled1.5%3.6%
  • Shorthanded2.3%3.1%
  • Off a faceoff win1.1%1.1%

263 Toronto goals and 357 Vegas goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play72.7%41.2%
  • Power play27.3%29.4%
  • Rebound0%11.8%
  • Empty net0%5.9%
  • Off a turnover0%5.9%
  • Goalie pulled0%0%
  • Shorthanded0%5.9%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

11 Toronto goals and 17 Vegas goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Toronto Maple Leafs · Vegas Golden Knights