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VAN

Vancouver Canucks

2-3-0

NJD

New Jersey Devils

1-2-0

Has last change

Saturday, October 10

3:30 PM ET · Prudential Center

The short version

How it looks for Vancouver

Everything points away from Vancouver

New Jersey has controlled the play far better over recent games and has home ice. Vancouver’s best hope is getting good looks, plus a big night in goal.

How it looks for New Jersey

New Jersey has nearly everything going for them

New Jersey has controlled the play far better over recent games and has home ice. Anything short of a win would be a surprise, though Vancouver can make a game of it if they get good looks.

From this site’s win model, which rates each team on how well they have controlled the chances lately, who is in their lineup (including the league’s injury news), home ice and rest. We don’t publish the number before the game; the post-game page shows it and what went into it.

  1. The Devils should pile up the shots

    The Devils shoot a lot (63.9 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5, 5th in the league), and the Canucks are 31st at keeping shots down. Look for a big shot total.

    The call The Devils take at least their usual 63.9 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5.

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 3 and 5 games this season

  2. Penalties could cost the Canucks

    The Canucks’ penalty kill sits 31st in the league, and the Devils’ power play is 7th (8.2 expected goals per 60). Discipline matters more than usual for the Canucks tonight.

    The call The Devils’ power play creates at least their usual 8.2 expected goals per 60.

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 3 and 5 games this season

Worth knowing

  • Vancouver The forward lines keep changing. Even their four most-used trios over the last 5 games cover only 27% of their forwards’ 5-on-5 time, the second-lowest in the league (a typical team: 53%). The lines listed lean on their latest games, but expect new combinations tonight.
  • Vancouver P. Cotter has started killing penalties: on the ice for 30% of the team’s shorthanded time in 5 games, up from 0% last season.
  • Vancouver M. Sasson has started killing penalties: on the ice for 32% of the team’s shorthanded time in 5 games, up from 4% last season.
  • Vancouver A. Bains has started killing penalties: on the ice for 25% of the team’s shorthanded time in 5 games, up from 3% last season.
  • New Jersey C. Brown has not played this season. A. Mantha is in his usual spot beside J. Bratt and J. Hughes. That line is getting 8:29 a game at 5-on-5, down from 9:40 with Brown.

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Vancouver and New Jersey play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Vancouver CanucksNew Jersey DevilsLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 5 and 3 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 5 games for Vancouver, 3 for New Jersey. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Vancouver: 45.7 shot attempts per 6032nd of 32

      Vancouver: 41.8 shot attempts per 6032nd of 32

    • New Jersey: 63.9 shot attempts per 605th of 32

      New Jersey: 71.1 shot attempts per 602nd of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Vancouver: a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot17th of 32

      Vancouver: a 6.9% chance of scoring on the average shot10th of 32

    • New Jersey: a 6.1% chance of scoring on the average shot25th of 32

      New Jersey: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot20th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Vancouver: 10.8% of chances come from rebounds1st of 32

      Vancouver: 23.5% of chances come from rebounds2nd of 32

    • New Jersey: 9.8% of chances come from rebounds32nd of 32

      New Jersey: 8.2% of chances come from rebounds19th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Vancouver: 6.9% of chances come right after a turnover26th of 32

      Vancouver: 16.9% of chances come right after a turnover2nd of 32

    • New Jersey: 7.7% of chances come right after a turnover6th of 32

      New Jersey: 10.1% of chances come right after a turnover13th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Vancouver: 31.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen30th of 32

      Vancouver: 31.4% of shot attempts come from defensemen25th of 32

    • New Jersey: 36.1% of shot attempts come from defensemen7th of 32

      New Jersey: 38.1% of shot attempts come from defensemen2nd of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Vancouver: 29.2% of shots come from within 20 feet28th of 32

      Vancouver: 27.0% of shots come from within 20 feet25th of 32

    • New Jersey: 28.9% of shots come from within 20 feet30th of 32

      New Jersey: 28.2% of shots come from within 20 feet24th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Vancouver: 61.8 shot attempts allowed per 6031st of 32

      Vancouver: 63.1 shot attempts allowed per 6026th of 32

    • New Jersey: 55.1 shot attempts allowed per 6012th of 32

      New Jersey: 51.1 shot attempts allowed per 609th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Vancouver: a 6.8% chance of scoring on the average shot against31st of 32

      Vancouver: a 7.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against26th of 32

    • New Jersey: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against26th of 32

      New Jersey: a 6.9% chance of scoring on the average shot against25th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Vancouver: 0.38 defensive breakdowns per 607th of 32

      Vancouver: 0.51 defensive breakdowns per 6021st of 32

    • New Jersey: 0.44 defensive breakdowns per 6026th of 32

      New Jersey: 1.30 defensive breakdowns per 6032nd of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Vancouver: −0.06 goals saved above expected per 6032nd of 32

      Vancouver: −1.29 goals saved above expected per 6027th of 32

    • New Jersey: +0.11 goals saved above expected per 6016th of 32

      New Jersey: −1.12 goals saved above expected per 6026th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Vancouver: 80.3 shots per 60, both teams combined22nd of 32

      Vancouver: 73.2 shots per 60, both teams combined28th of 32

    • New Jersey: 83.6 shots per 60, both teams combined8th of 32

      New Jersey: 87.5 shots per 60, both teams combined6th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Vancouver: forecheck score 100 (100 is league average)16th of 32Vancouver: 22.9 forecheck plays recorded per 6014th of 32

      Vancouver: forecheck score 98 (100 is league average)17th of 32Vancouver: 24.6 forecheck plays recorded per 6013th of 32

    • New Jersey: forecheck score 95 (100 is league average)17th of 32New Jersey: 20.7 forecheck plays recorded per 6023rd of 32

      New Jersey: forecheck score 99 (100 is league average)16th of 32New Jersey: 23.0 forecheck plays recorded per 6017th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Vancouver: hit score 98 (100 is league average)18th of 32Vancouver: 26.8 hits recorded per 6017th of 32

      Vancouver: hit score 95 (100 is league average)18th of 32Vancouver: 28.9 hits recorded per 6019th of 32

    • New Jersey: hit score 78 (100 is league average)30th of 32New Jersey: 19.8 hits recorded per 6031st of 32

      New Jersey: hit score 67 (100 is league average)31st of 32New Jersey: 18.5 hits recorded per 6031st of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Vancouver: 43.4% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six7th of 32

      Vancouver: 43.9% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six9th of 32

    • New Jersey: 40.5% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six28th of 32

      New Jersey: 40.8% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six25th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Vancouver: 7.0 expected goals per 60 on the power play24th of 32

      Vancouver: 4.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play30th of 32

    • New Jersey: 8.2 expected goals per 60 on the power play7th of 32

      New Jersey: 4.9 expected goals per 60 on the power play26th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Vancouver: 8.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded31st of 32

      Vancouver: 11.6 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded32nd of 32

    • New Jersey: 7.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded14th of 32

      New Jersey: 10.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded31st of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Vancouver: 1.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded10th of 32

      Vancouver: 1.3 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded8th of 32

    • New Jersey: 1.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded4th of 32

      New Jersey: 0.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded26th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Vancouver: 0.01 more penalties drawn than taken per 6018th of 32

      Vancouver: 0.40 more penalties taken than drawn per 6024th of 32

    • New Jersey: 0.06 more penalties drawn than taken per 6011th of 32

      New Jersey: 1.31 more penalties drawn than taken per 602nd of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

New Jersey is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (5 and 3 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Vancouver Canucks

New Jersey Devils

Who New Jersey is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one New Jersey group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Vancouver’s, named in each box.

Vancouver keeps changing their forward lines, so the four named here (from their latest games) may not be the ones they send out tonight.

Vancouver’s lines tonightL1 DeBrusk · Pettersson · LekkerimäkiL2 Boeser · Cotter · RossiL3 Karlsson · Ohgren · SassonL4 O'Connor · Räty · Bains

New Jersey forward lines against Vancouver forward lines

  • L1Meier · Hischier · EvangelistaVAN L133%VAN L212%VAN L317%VAN L438%
  • L2Mantha · Bratt · HughesVAN L142%VAN L215%VAN L311%VAN L432%
  • L3Rodrigues · Gritsyuk · MercerVAN L133%VAN L235%VAN L311%VAN L420%
  • L4Glass · Boqvist · LombardiVAN L122%VAN L248%VAN L319%VAN L411%

New Jersey defense pairs against Vancouver forward lines

  • P1Pesce · HughesVAN L138%VAN L219%VAN L317%VAN L426%
  • P2Hamilton · SiegenthalerVAN L133%VAN L236%VAN L316%VAN L416%
  • P3Dillon · ChisholmVAN L127%VAN L222%VAN L33%VAN L448%

Based on 2 New Jersey home games this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Vancouver power play against New Jersey penalty kill

  • Vancouver power play

    7.0 expected goals per 60 · 24th of 32

  • New Jersey penalty kill

    7.4 expected goals allowed per 60 · 14th of 32

Vancouver power play

PP161% of the time

Creates 6.0 expected goals per 60

  • F. HronekQuarterback
  • E. Pettersson
  • B. BoeserDistributor
  • M. Rossi
  • J. DeBruskTrigger

PP238% of the time

Creates 5.9 expected goals per 60

  • Z. BuiumQuarterback
  • T. WillanderPoint
  • L. KarlssonTrigger
  • J. Lekkerimäki
  • L. OhgrenNet-front

 

Where Vancouver’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

New Jersey penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

K. Lankinen48 starts · 1389 shots, this season and last

−23.7 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.962 660 shots
Medium-danger save %
.858 507 shots
High-danger save %
.617 222 shots
Shots faced per 60
30
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.39
Quality starts
44%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesK. LankinenL. MeriläinenJ. AllenN. Daws

J. Allen39 starts · 1088 shots, this season and last

+11.7 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.979 536 shots
Medium-danger save %
.905 380 shots
High-danger save %
.651 172 shots
Shots faced per 60
28.3
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.39
Quality starts
56%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • K. Lankinen: −23.7 goals saved above expected in 48 starts
    • J. Allen: +11.7 goals saved above expected in 39 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • K. Lankinen: 30 shots faced per 60
    • J. Allen: 28.3 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • K. Lankinen: the average shot he faces has a 7.6% chance of going in
    • J. Allen: the average shot he faces has a 7.2% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • K. Lankinen: 0.39 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Allen: 0.39 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • K. Lankinen: a typical wait of 66 seconds between shots
    • J. Allen: a typical wait of 70 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • K. Lankinen: a quality start 44% of the time
    • J. Allen: a quality start 56% of the time

K. Lankinen, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Allen, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

K. Lankinen3 starts · 104 shots, this season

−8.1 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.905 42 shots
Medium-danger save %
.897 29 shots
High-danger save %
.545 33 shots
Shots faced per 60
33.3
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
33%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesK. LankinenL. MeriläinenJ. AllenN. Daws

J. Allen2 starts · 56 shots, this season

−1.1 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.960 25 shots
Medium-danger save %
.826 23 shots
High-danger save %
.750 8 shots
Shots faced per 60
27.8
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
50%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • K. Lankinen: −8.1 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
    • J. Allen: −1.1 goals saved above expected in 2 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • K. Lankinen: 33.3 shots faced per 60
    • J. Allen: 27.8 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • K. Lankinen: the average shot he faces has a 9.6% chance of going in
    • J. Allen: the average shot he faces has a 7.7% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • K. Lankinen: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Allen: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • K. Lankinen: a typical wait of 60 seconds between shots
    • J. Allen: a typical wait of 67 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • K. Lankinen: a quality start 33% of the time
    • J. Allen: a quality start 50% of the time

K. Lankinen, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Allen, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
VancouverNew JerseyLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play51.5%58%
  • Power play23.4%19.5%
  • Rebound8.7%2.6%
  • Empty net3.9%7.8%
  • Off a turnover3.9%4.3%
  • Goalie pulled3%4.3%
  • Shorthanded3.5%2.6%
  • Off a faceoff win2.2%0.9%

231 Vancouver goals and 231 New Jersey goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play52.4%66.7%
  • Power play14.3%16.7%
  • Rebound19%0%
  • Empty net4.8%0%
  • Off a turnover4.8%16.7%
  • Goalie pulled0%0%
  • Shorthanded4.8%0%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

21 Vancouver goals and 6 New Jersey goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Vancouver Canucks · New Jersey Devils