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MIN

Minnesota Wild

2-1-1

FLA

Florida Panthers

2-0-2

Has last change

Saturday, October 10

6:00 PM ET · Amerant Bank Arena

The short version

Before the game

Penalties could cost the Wild

The Wild come in at 2-1-1, the Panthers at 2-0-2. The two have been about even at controlling the play lately and Florida has home ice. For Florida, the difference could be keeping dangerous shots away.

The Wild come in at 2-1-1, the Panthers at 2-0-2. The two have been about even at controlling the play lately and Florida has home ice. For Minnesota, the difference could be keeping dangerous shots away.

The Panthers’ power play has a soft target in the Wild’s kill. The Wild and the Panthers sit at opposite ends for shots from in close.

Who to watch

  • Owns themJoel Eriksson Ek has a point in five straight games against Florida, and 8 points in his last five against them.
  • Owns themMatthew Tkachuk has a point in five straight games against Minnesota.
  • MissingOlli Maatta has missed the Wild’s latest game.
  • MissingAaron Ekblad has missed the Panthers’ last two games.

  1. Penalties could cost the Wild

    The Panthers’ power play is near the top of the league, and the Wild’s kill is around the middle of the league. Every trip to the box hurts the Wild more than most.

    The call The Panthers’ power play creates at least their usual 7.9 expected goals per 60.

    Florida 8th for power play (7.9 expected goals per 60) · Minnesota 22nd for penalty kill

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 4 games this season

  2. The Wild get in close; the Panthers shoot from distance

    The Wild are one of the league’s best for shots from in close, at the close-range end; the Panthers are near the bottom of the league, at the long-range end. Expect that gap to show.

    The call The Wild take a bigger share of their shots from within 20 feet than the Panthers.

    Shots from in close: Minnesota 5th, Florida 25th

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 4 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Minnesota and Florida play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Minnesota WildFlorida PanthersLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 4 and 4 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 4 games for Minnesota, 4 for Florida. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Minnesota: 56.1 shot attempts per 6017th of 32

      Minnesota: 54.6 shot attempts per 6019th of 32

    • Florida: 58.1 shot attempts per 6011th of 32

      Florida: 58.5 shot attempts per 6010th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Minnesota: a 6.1% chance of scoring on the average shot23rd of 32

      Minnesota: a 5.6% chance of scoring on the average shot26th of 32

    • Florida: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot26th of 32

      Florida: a 5.7% chance of scoring on the average shot24th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Minnesota: 10.7% of chances come from rebounds2nd of 32

      Minnesota: 11.6% of chances come from rebounds14th of 32

    • Florida: 10.2% of chances come from rebounds18th of 32

      Florida: 6.7% of chances come from rebounds23rd of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Minnesota: 7.4% of chances come right after a turnover15th of 32

      Minnesota: 4.5% of chances come right after a turnover25th of 32

    • Florida: 7.2% of chances come right after a turnover22nd of 32

      Florida: 2.5% of chances come right after a turnover30th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Minnesota: 31.9% of shot attempts come from defensemen27th of 32

      Minnesota: 31.2% of shot attempts come from defensemen27th of 32

    • Florida: 31.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen30th of 32

      Florida: 32.5% of shot attempts come from defensemen22nd of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Minnesota: 31.9% of shots come from within 20 feet5th of 32

      Minnesota: 32.5% of shots come from within 20 feet17th of 32

    • Florida: 29.5% of shots come from within 20 feet25th of 32

      Florida: 24.3% of shots come from within 20 feet32nd of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Minnesota: 58.8 shot attempts allowed per 6024th of 32

      Minnesota: 55.6 shot attempts allowed per 6016th of 32

    • Florida: 50.0 shot attempts allowed per 602nd of 32

      Florida: 39.8 shot attempts allowed per 601st of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Minnesota: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against4th of 32

      Minnesota: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against7th of 32

    • Florida: a 5.9% chance of scoring on the average shot against1st of 32

      Florida: a 4.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against1st of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Minnesota: 0.37 defensive breakdowns per 604th of 32

      Minnesota: 0.31 defensive breakdowns per 6012th of 32

    • Florida: 0.36 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

      Florida: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Minnesota: +0.18 goals saved above expected per 606th of 32

      Minnesota: +0.92 goals saved above expected per 608th of 32

    • Florida: +0.04 goals saved above expected per 6028th of 32

      Florida: +0.56 goals saved above expected per 6010th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Minnesota: 84.0 shots per 60, both teams combined7th of 32

      Minnesota: 79.6 shots per 60, both teams combined16th of 32

    • Florida: 78.7 shots per 60, both teams combined27th of 32

      Florida: 64.6 shots per 60, both teams combined32nd of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Minnesota: forecheck score 105 (100 is league average)11th of 32Minnesota: 23.8 forecheck plays recorded per 6011th of 32

      Minnesota: forecheck score 99 (100 is league average)15th of 32Minnesota: 24.5 forecheck plays recorded per 6014th of 32

    • Florida: forecheck score 151 (100 is league average)1st of 32Florida: 33.6 forecheck plays recorded per 601st of 32

      Florida: forecheck score 179 (100 is league average)1st of 32Florida: 42.2 forecheck plays recorded per 601st of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Minnesota: hit score 97 (100 is league average)19th of 32Minnesota: 25.9 hits recorded per 6019th of 32

      Minnesota: hit score 88 (100 is league average)21st of 32Minnesota: 26.0 hits recorded per 6021st of 32

    • Florida: hit score 148 (100 is league average)1st of 32Florida: 37.5 hits recorded per 601st of 32

      Florida: hit score 174 (100 is league average)1st of 32Florida: 47.2 hits recorded per 601st of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Minnesota: 42.4% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six14th of 32

      Minnesota: 43.6% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six12th of 32

    • Florida: 40.9% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six24th of 32

      Florida: 40.2% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six28th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Minnesota: 7.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play20th of 32

      Minnesota: 7.4 expected goals per 60 on the power play13th of 32

    • Florida: 7.9 expected goals per 60 on the power play8th of 32

      Florida: 7.5 expected goals per 60 on the power play12th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Minnesota: 7.8 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded22nd of 32

      Minnesota: 6.2 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded10th of 32

    • Florida: 6.8 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded4th of 32

      Florida: 9.1 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded27th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Minnesota: 0.7 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded30th of 32

      Minnesota: 0.6 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded19th of 32

    • Florida: 1.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded8th of 32

      Florida: 0.4 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded22nd of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Minnesota: 0.22 more penalties drawn than taken per 603rd of 32

      Minnesota: 0.00 more penalties drawn than taken per 6015th of 32

    • Florida: 0.03 more penalties drawn than taken per 6014th of 32

      Florida: 0.95 more penalties drawn than taken per 605th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Florida is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (4 and 4 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Minnesota Wild

Florida Panthers

Who Florida is likely to send against whom

Florida has not played at home yet this season, so there is no matching habit to show.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Minnesota power play against Florida penalty kill

  • Minnesota power play

    7.3 expected goals per 60 · 20th of 32

  • Florida penalty kill

    6.8 expected goals allowed per 60 · 4th of 32

Minnesota power play

PP181% of the time

Creates 6.9 expected goals per 60

  • Q. HughesQuarterback
  • M. BoldyDistributor
  • K. KaprizovTrigger
  • J. Eriksson EkNet-front
  • M. Shabanov

PP219% of the time

Creates 7.7 expected goals per 60

  • J. SpurgeonQuarterback
  • B. Brink
  • B. Coleman
  • R. HartmanTrigger
  • D. Yurov

 

Where Minnesota’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Florida penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

J. Wallstedt37 starts · 1131 shots, this season and last

+19.2 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.982 557 shots
Medium-danger save %
.888 420 shots
High-danger save %
.753 154 shots
Shots faced per 60
30.3
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.32
Quality starts
76%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. WallstedtJ. MarkstromA. Schmid

J. Markstrom45 starts · 1168 shots, this season and last

−7.9 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.972 601 shots
Medium-danger save %
.848 414 shots
High-danger save %
.647 153 shots
Shots faced per 60
25.6
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.24
Quality starts
42%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Wallstedt: +19.2 goals saved above expected in 37 starts
    • J. Markstrom: −7.9 goals saved above expected in 45 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Wallstedt: 30.3 shots faced per 60
    • J. Markstrom: 25.6 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Wallstedt: the average shot he faces has a 6.7% chance of going in
    • J. Markstrom: the average shot he faces has a 7.1% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Wallstedt: 0.32 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Markstrom: 0.24 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Wallstedt: a typical wait of 68 seconds between shots
    • J. Markstrom: a typical wait of 74 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Wallstedt: a quality start 76% of the time
    • J. Markstrom: a quality start 42% of the time

J. Wallstedt, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Markstrom, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Wallstedt4 starts · 110 shots, this season

+3.7 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.961 51 shots
Medium-danger save %
.902 41 shots
High-danger save %
.889 18 shots
Shots faced per 60
27.2
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.25
Quality starts
100%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. WallstedtJ. MarkstromA. Schmid

J. Markstrom3 starts · 55 shots, this season

+2.8 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
1.000 23 shots
Medium-danger save %
.900 20 shots
High-danger save %
.833 12 shots
Shots faced per 60
17.5
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
67%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Wallstedt: +3.7 goals saved above expected in 4 starts
    • J. Markstrom: +2.8 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Wallstedt: 27.2 shots faced per 60
    • J. Markstrom: 17.5 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Wallstedt: the average shot he faces has a 6.9% chance of going in
    • J. Markstrom: the average shot he faces has a 8.0% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Wallstedt: 0.25 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Markstrom: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Wallstedt: a typical wait of 82 seconds between shots
    • J. Markstrom: a typical wait of 76 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Wallstedt: a quality start 100% of the time
    • J. Markstrom: a quality start 67% of the time

J. Wallstedt, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Markstrom, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
MinnesotaFloridaLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play53.4%54.3%
  • Power play23.8%20.5%
  • Rebound4.7%7.5%
  • Empty net7.5%5.5%
  • Off a turnover4.4%4.3%
  • Goalie pulled1.9%3.9%
  • Shorthanded2.2%2.4%
  • Off a faceoff win2.2%1.6%

320 Minnesota goals and 254 Florida goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play36.4%62.5%
  • Power play45.5%12.5%
  • Rebound9.1%12.5%
  • Empty net9.1%0%
  • Off a turnover0%0%
  • Goalie pulled0%12.5%
  • Shorthanded0%0%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

11 Minnesota goals and 8 Florida goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Minnesota Wild · Florida Panthers