How dangerous was that chance?
Our own expected-goals model rates every shot by how often shots like it go in. Here is every goal and the eight best chances that didn’t go in, from each team’s most recent game. Pick a game you watched and see whether the ratings match your memory. MoneyPuck.com’s rating of the same shot is shown beside ours for comparison; nothing else on the site uses it.
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Final: UTA 5, NJD 3. Expected goals by our model: UTA 4.1, NJD 2.9. By MoneyPuck’s: UTA 4.3, NJD 2.6.
| When | Shooter | Shot | Situation | Just before | Our rating | MoneyPuck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:16 | N. Schmaltz UTA | wrist, 5 ft | 5-on-4 | 6s off a faceoff | 24% | 25% |
| P1 1:57 | C. Keller UTAGoal | slap, 33 ft | 5-on-4 | 37s after a takeaway | 8% | 13% |
| P1 8:56 | M. Carcone UTA | snap, 14 ft | 5-on-4 | 7s after a blocked shot | 19% | 17% |
| P1 12:23 | L. Evangelista NJDGoal | tip in, 13 ft | 5-on-3 | 18s off a faceoff | 14% | 14% |
| P2 1:26 | L. Cooley UTA | snap, 7 ft | 5-on-5 | 9s after a hit | 21% | 20% |
| P2 1:42 | M. Weegar UTAGoal | backhand, 7 ft | 5-on-5 | 4s after a save | 14% | 13% |
| P2 2:45 | D. Guenther UTA | snap, 15 ft | 5-on-5 | 33s after a giveaway | 19% | 16% |
| P2 6:31 | L. Evangelista NJDGoal | tip in, 11 ft | 5-on-5 | 8s after a missed shot | 9% | 9% |
| P2 12:05 | N. Schmaltz UTAGoal | wrist, 12 ft | 5-on-4 | 23s after a hit | 13% | 12% |
| P2 13:58 | A. Lombardi NJD | snap, 14 ft | 5-on-5 | 2s after a blocked shot | 17% | 19% |
| P2 15:25 | N. Schmidt UTA | snap, 21 ft | 5-on-5 | 11s after a giveaway | 18% | 19% |
| P2 19:03 | L. Crouse UTAGoal | tip in, 2 ft | 5-on-5 | 1s after a missed shot | 41% | 56% |
| P3 1:21 | D. Mercer NJD | wrist, 21 ft | 5-on-5 | 25s after a missed shot | 17% | 16% |
| P3 9:49 | J. Boqvist NJDGoal | backhand, 16 ft | 5-on-5 | 3s after a blocked shot | 14% | 12% |
| P3 16:52 | V. Trocheck UTAGoal | wrist, 8 ft | 5-on-5 | 38s after a giveaway | 18% | 19% |
| P3 18:28 | J. Hughes NJD | snap, 16 ft | 6-on-5 | 8s after a giveaway | 24% | 23% |
Final: FLA 2, LAK 1. Expected goals by our model: FLA 2.6, LAK 1.9. By MoneyPuck’s: FLA 2.7, LAK 2.0.
| When | Shooter | Shot | Situation | Just before | Our rating | MoneyPuck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 19:00 | A. Laferriere LAKGoal | wrist, 19 ft | 5-on-5 | 2s after a blocked shot | 6% | 8% |
| P2 3:49 | S. Jones FLAGoal | wrist, 10 ft | 5-on-5 | 10s after a blocked shot | 13% | 14% |
| P2 5:58 | E. Haula LAK | wrist, 22 ft | 4-on-5 | 7s after a takeaway | 20% | 19% |
| P2 10:12 | S. Reinhart FLA | wrist, 17 ft | 5-on-4 | 60s after a save | 15% | 17% |
| P2 19:22 | S. Bennett FLA | wrist, 24 ft | 5-on-4 | 15s off a faceoff | 16% | 14% |
| P2 19:46 | S. Reinhart FLA | wrist, 8 ft | 5-on-4 | 24s after a save | 18% | 17% |
| P3 0:25 | J. Armia LAK | wrist, 12 ft | 4-on-5 | 9s after a giveaway | 25% | 24% |
| P3 2:11 | B. Dumoulin LAK | wrist, 21 ft | 4-on-5 | 9s off a faceoff | 14% | 13% |
| P3 2:34 | S. Reinhart FLA | wrist, 20 ft | 5-on-4 | 23s after a save | 14% | 15% |
| P3 11:20 | M. Tkachuk FLAGoal | wrist, 27 ft | 5-on-5 | 8s after a giveaway | 8% | 7% |
| P3 12:48 | S. Vilmanis FLA | backhand, 10 ft | 5-on-5 | 14s after a hit | 18% | 16% |
Final: EDM 5, ANA 2. Expected goals by our model: EDM 2.6, ANA 3.3. By MoneyPuck’s: EDM 2.7, ANA 3.2.
| When | Shooter | Shot | Situation | Just before | Our rating | MoneyPuck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:47 | A. Formenton EDM | snap, 23 ft | 5-on-5 | 5s after a save | 16% | 12% |
| P1 3:43 | B. Sennecke ANA | deflected, 7 ft | 5-on-4 | 13s after a save | 16% | 17% |
| P1 4:11 | B. Sennecke ANAGoal | snap, 8 ft | 5-on-4 | 17s off a faceoff | 21% | 22% |
| P1 5:45 | N. Nesterenko ANA | wrist, 22 ft | 5-on-5 | 2s after a blocked shot | 13% | 13% |
| P1 11:58 | A. Killorn ANA | wrist, 14 ft | 5-on-5 | 9s after a blocked shot | 17% | 13% |
| P1 15:28 | B. Sennecke ANAGoal | tip in, 7 ft | 5-on-4 | 45s off a faceoff | 14% | 12% |
| P2 0:11 | E. Bouchard EDMGoal | slap, 68 ft | 5-on-5 | 3s after a giveaway | 1% | 0% |
| P2 6:30 | K. Kapanen EDMGoal | snap, 18 ft | 5-on-4 | 21s after a hit | 17% | 18% |
| P2 11:11 | V. Podkolzin EDM | snap, 5 ft | 5-on-5 | 26s after a giveaway | 26% | 31% |
| P2 14:12 | E. Bouchard EDMGoal | slap, 43 ft | 5-on-5 | 14s after a takeaway | 7% | 5% |
| P2 16:49 | V. Podkolzin EDMGoal | snap, 13 ft | 5-on-5 | 23s after a hit | 19% | 18% |
| P2 19:08 | C. McDavid EDMGoal | snap, 39 ft | 4-on-4 | 20s off a faceoff | 8% | 7% |
| P3 4:15 | M. Granlund ANA | wrist, 14 ft | 5-on-4 | 7s after a blocked shot | 16% | 15% |
| P3 7:55 | L. Carlsson ANA | wrist, 20 ft | 5-on-5 | 38s off a faceoff | 13% | 11% |
| P3 8:00 | A. Greer ANA | poke, 8 ft | 5-on-5 | 4s after a missed shot | 30% | 23% |
Final: UTA 1, BOS 6. Expected goals by our model: UTA 4.7, BOS 2.5. By MoneyPuck’s: UTA 4.5, BOS 2.2.
| When | Shooter | Shot | Situation | Just before | Our rating | MoneyPuck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:30 | V. Trocheck UTA | snap, 15 ft | 5-on-5 | 13s after a hit | 19% | 16% |
| P1 0:32 | V. Trocheck UTA | bat, 8 ft | 5-on-5 | 2s after a missed shot | 18% | 13% |
| P1 8:20 | D. But UTA | snap, 23 ft | 5-on-4 | 59s after a giveaway | 17% | 13% |
| P1 10:06 | C. Mittelstadt BOSGoal | wrist, 28 ft | 5-on-5 | 37s after a blocked shot | 6% | 6% |
| P1 12:30 | J. McBain UTA | snap, 14 ft | 5-on-5 | 2s after a save | 36% | 32% |
| P1 14:22 | D. Pastrnak BOSGoal | wrist, 41 ft | 5-on-4 | 6s off a faceoff | 5% | 5% |
| P1 14:47 | F. Minten BOS | snap, 11 ft | 5-on-5 | 14s off a faceoff | 19% | 17% |
| P1 15:51 | M. Lohrei BOSGoal | wrist, 26 ft | 5-on-5 | 16s after a hit | 6% | 6% |
| P2 2:49 | D. But UTA | snap, 17 ft | 5-on-5 | 2s after a save | 38% | 16% |
| P2 4:40 | D. Pastrnak BOSGoal | slap, 37 ft | 5-on-4 | 55s after a blocked shot | 10% | 9% |
| P2 7:15 | A. Lee UTA | snap, 8 ft | 5-on-5 | 13s after a save | 20% | 21% |
| P2 7:57 | M. Geekie BOSGoal | slap, 29 ft | 5-on-4 | 36s off a faceoff | 14% | 14% |
| P2 14:08 | M. Poitras BOSGoal | wrist, 32 ft | 5-on-5 | 55s off a faceoff | 9% | 8% |
| P3 9:00 | M. Khusnutdinov BOS | wrist, 29 ft | 5-on-5 | 3s after a takeaway | 23% | 17% |
| P3 9:48 | J. McBain UTAGoal | snap, 6 ft | 5-on-5 | 4s after a missed shot | 43% | 45% |
Final: DAL 4, BUF 0. Expected goals by our model: DAL 2.1, BUF 2.4. By MoneyPuck’s: DAL 2.1, BUF 2.3.
| When | Shooter | Shot | Situation | Just before | Our rating | MoneyPuck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:17 | P. Krebs BUF | snap, 22 ft | 5-on-5 | 56s after a blocked shot | 16% | 14% |
| P1 9:03 | J. Robertson DALGoal | snap, 30 ft | 5-on-5 | 20s after a save | 12% | 9% |
| P1 14:50 | C. Blackwell DAL | snap, 11 ft | 5-on-5 | 19s after a blocked shot | 21% | 22% |
| P2 0:09 | R. Hintz DAL | snap, 20 ft | 5-on-4 | 9s off a faceoff | 18% | 16% |
| P2 1:13 | J. Robertson DAL | snap, 7 ft | 5-on-4 | 12s after a giveaway | 23% | 23% |
| P2 9:36 | S. Steel DALGoal | snap, 46 ft | 5-on-5 | 26s after a hit | 4% | 5% |
| P2 10:40 | R. Faksa DAL | wrist, 12 ft | 5-on-5 | 35s after a hit | 18% | 16% |
| P2 13:57 | M. Rantanen DALGoal | backhand, 6 ft | 5-on-5 | 22s after a giveaway | 13% | 23% |
| P2 15:34 | R. Hintz DALGoal | snap, 25 ft | 5-on-4 | 18s off a faceoff | 16% | 15% |
| P3 10:08 | J. Doan BUF | snap, 18 ft | 5-on-5 | 2s after a blocked shot | 16% | 21% |
| P3 13:11 | J. Danforth BUF | snap, 18 ft | 5-on-5 | 8s after a blocked shot | 15% | 19% |
| P3 14:31 | P. Krebs BUF | slap, 27 ft | 5-on-5 | 40s after a missed shot | 14% | 4% |
Final: NSH 5, MTL 2. Expected goals by our model: NSH 3.2, MTL 3.5. By MoneyPuck’s: NSH 3.4, MTL 3.7.
| When | Shooter | Shot | Situation | Just before | Our rating | MoneyPuck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:25 | Z. Bolduc MTL | backhand, 8 ft | 5-on-5 | 2s after a save | 18% | 17% |
| P2 3:12 | N. Suzuki MTLGoal | backhand, 15 ft | 4-on-4 | 2s after a giveaway | 8% | 7% |
| P2 5:24 | C. Caufield MTL | snap, 8 ft | 5-on-5 | 9s after a save | 22% | 24% |
| P2 6:53 | A. Xhekaj MTL | snap, 31 ft | 5-on-5 | 60s off a faceoff | 13% | 18% |
| P2 8:50 | A. Newhook MTLGoal | snap, 13 ft | 5-on-5 | 3s after a giveaway | 31% | 27% |
| P2 9:18 | J. Slafkovský MTL | snap, 23 ft | 5-on-5 | 3s after a missed shot | 17% | 9% |
| P2 15:06 | A. Kerfoot NSHGoal | tip in, 12 ft | 5-on-5 | 12s after a hit | 9% | 8% |
| P2 19:28 | M. Wood NSHGoal | snap, 9 ft | 5-on-4 | 4s after a blocked shot | 35% | 33% |
| P3 0:25 | S. Stamkos NSH | snap, 17 ft | 5-on-4 | 25s off a faceoff | 18% | 18% |
| P3 8:24 | J. Anderson MTL | snap, 7 ft | 5-on-5 | 5s after a blocked shot | 21% | 26% |
| P3 11:13 | J. Anderson MTL | snap, 17 ft | 5-on-5 | 5s after a missed shot | 17% | 14% |
| P3 12:55 | C. Caufield MTL | snap, 15 ft | 5-on-5 | 9s off a faceoff | 20% | 20% |
| P3 16:44 | R. O'Reilly NSHGoal | tip in, 16 ft | 5-on-4 | 59s off a faceoff | 9% | 12% |
| P3 17:23 | A. Edstrom NSHGoal | snap, 19 ft | empty net | 7s off a faceoff | 94% | 84% |
| P3 18:34 | A. Edstrom NSHGoal | snap, 29 ft | empty net | 8s off a faceoff | 37% | 63% |
Final: PHI 1, OTT 2. Expected goals by our model: PHI 3.3, OTT 2.3. By MoneyPuck’s: PHI 3.4, OTT 2.3.
| When | Shooter | Shot | Situation | Just before | Our rating | MoneyPuck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:14 | N. Cousins OTTGoal | tip in, 6 ft | 5-on-5 | 8s off a faceoff | 13% | 11% |
| P1 11:01 | S. Halliday OTT | wrist, 10 ft | 5-on-4 | 42s off a faceoff | 17% | 17% |
| P2 7:46 | M. Michkov PHIGoal | backhand, 1 ft | 5-on-4 | 2s after a save | 77% | 85% |
| P2 9:57 | S. Couturier PHI | snap, 17 ft | 5-on-5 | 5s after a save | 21% | 17% |
| P2 10:00 | S. Couturier PHI | wrist, 11 ft | 5-on-5 | 3s after a save | 26% | 28% |
| P2 19:50 | S. Pinto OTT | wrist, 6 ft | 5-on-5 | 35s after a hit | 19% | 21% |
| P3 4:47 | W. Foegele OTT | wrist, 10 ft | 5-on-5 | 2s after a blocked shot | 18% | 19% |
| P3 8:54 | M. Amadio OTT | backhand, 7 ft | 4-on-5 | 39s after a blocked shot | 22% | 14% |
| P3 9:47 | N. Cates PHI | backhand, 6 ft | 5-on-4 | 7s off a faceoff | 23% | 20% |
| P3 10:56 | F. Zetterlund OTT | wrist, 7 ft | 5-on-5 | 12s after a giveaway | 19% | 21% |
| P3 13:01 | C. Yakemchuk OTTGoal | slap, 52 ft | 5-on-4 | 17s after a missed shot | 5% | 6% |
Final: MIN 2, TBL 3. Expected goals by our model: MIN 3.1, TBL 3.4. By MoneyPuck’s: MIN 2.9, TBL 3.5.
| When | Shooter | Shot | Situation | Just before | Our rating | MoneyPuck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:26 | A. Cirelli TBLGoal | tip in, 20 ft | 5-on-5 | 23s after a blocked shot | 7% | 8% |
| P1 6:02 | J. Carlson TBLGoal | wrist, 58 ft | 5-on-5 | 12s after a save | 2% | 3% |
| P1 17:59 | Y. Trenin MIN | deflected, 6 ft | 5-on-5 | 2s after a save | 20% | 14% |
| P2 2:32 | Q. Hughes MINGoal | wrist, 55 ft | 5-on-5 | 11s after a blocked shot | 3% | 3% |
| P2 4:55 | J. Carlson TBLGoal | slap, 37 ft | 5-on-4 | 49s after a blocked shot | 10% | 11% |
| P2 8:22 | B. Hagel TBL | wrist, 16 ft | 4-on-5 | 8s after a blocked shot | 20% | 17% |
| P2 9:38 | B. Coleman MIN | snap, 18 ft | 5-on-4 | 21s after a missed shot | 20% | 22% |
| P2 14:01 | B. Coleman MINGoal | wrist, 30 ft | 5-on-4 | 60s after a missed shot | 7% | 6% |
| P2 19:09 | M. Shabanov MIN | backhand, 5 ft | 5-on-5 | 8s after a hit | 24% | 22% |
| P2 19:26 | M. Foligno MIN | wrist, 14 ft | 5-on-5 | 2s after a save | 24% | 23% |
| P3 5:38 | B. Coleman MIN | snap, 17 ft | 5-on-5 | 28s after a giveaway | 18% | 18% |
| P3 11:21 | A. Cirelli TBL | wrist, 7 ft | 5-on-5 | 13s after a giveaway | 21% | 18% |
| P3 19:41 | M. Shabanov MIN | snap, 14 ft | 6-on-5 | 36s after a save | 23% | 12% |
Final: VAN 2, CAR 7. Expected goals by our model: VAN 2.2, CAR 5.1. By MoneyPuck’s: VAN 2.7, CAR 4.6.
| When | Shooter | Shot | Situation | Just before | Our rating | MoneyPuck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:18 | K. Miller CARGoal | snap, 27 ft | 5-on-5 | 4s after a missed shot | 16% | 15% |
| P1 7:11 | A. Svechnikov CARGoal | backhand, 9 ft | 5-on-4 | 3s after a hit | 14% | 21% |
| P1 9:25 | A. Svechnikov CARGoal | snap, 4 ft | 5-on-4 | 5s off a faceoff | 28% | 35% |
| P1 11:52 | L. Stankoven CAR | snap, 27 ft | 5-on-5 | 6s after a giveaway | 25% | 19% |
| P1 17:28 | P. Cotter VAN | wrist, 22 ft | 5-on-5 | 16s after a blocked shot | 18% | 18% |
| P2 2:37 | S. Aho CAR | snap, 24 ft | 5-on-5 | 51s after a giveaway | 17% | 11% |
| P2 3:20 | M. Jankowski CARGoal | snap, 15 ft | 5-on-5 | 9s after a hit | 17% | 14% |
| P2 3:39 | J. Martinook CAR | slap, 17 ft | 5-on-5 | 19s off a faceoff | 16% | 15% |
| P2 4:03 | J. DeBrusk VANGoal | wrist, 11 ft | 5-on-5 | 3s after a save | 51% | 44% |
| P2 10:01 | A. Svechnikov CAR | snap, 28 ft | 5-on-5 | 23s after a hit | 16% | 14% |
| P2 13:13 | L. Stankoven CARGoal | snap, 9 ft | 4-on-5 | 16s after a missed shot | 24% | 20% |
| P2 17:13 | J. Blake CAR | slap, 6 ft | 5-on-5 | 23s after a save | 21% | 25% |
| P2 19:02 | L. Stankoven CARGoal | snap, 22 ft | 5-on-4 | 8s after a missed shot | 20% | 15% |
| P3 10:00 | E. Robinson CAR | snap, 7 ft | 5-on-5 | 2s after a save | 34% | 22% |
| P3 11:36 | L. Stankoven CARGoal | snap, 34 ft | 5-on-5 | 11s after a hit | 10% | 12% |
| P3 12:14 | S. Aho CAR | wrist, 16 ft | 5-on-5 | 2s after a giveaway | 33% | 19% |
| P3 13:04 | J. DeBrusk VANGoal | wrist, 14 ft | 5-on-5 | 32s after a takeaway | 13% | 54% |
Final: CHI 1, NYI 4. Expected goals by our model: CHI 2.4, NYI 2.8. By MoneyPuck’s: CHI 2.5, NYI 2.9.
| When | Shooter | Shot | Situation | Just before | Our rating | MoneyPuck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:33 | C. Ritchie NYI | snap, 14 ft | 5-on-5 | 19s after a giveaway | 19% | 14% |
| P1 7:40 | T. Bertuzzi CHI | tip in, 5 ft | 5-on-4 | 14s off a faceoff | 22% | 19% |
| P1 16:18 | C. Cizikas NYI | snap, 24 ft | 4-on-5 | 11s off a faceoff | 20% | 18% |
| P1 18:56 | B. Horvat NYI | snap, 26 ft | 5-on-5 | 6s after a takeaway | 19% | 10% |
| P1 19:01 | B. Horvat NYIGoal | snap, 5 ft | 5-on-4 | 1s after a save | 5% | 2% |
| P2 6:11 | C. Cizikas NYI | snap, 16 ft | 5-on-5 | 8s after a hit | 18% | 17% |
| P2 6:44 | E. Heineman NYIGoal | snap, 35 ft | 5-on-5 | 17s after a hit | 9% | 9% |
| P2 9:38 | A. Duclair NYIGoal | snap, 17 ft | 5-on-5 | 16s after a save | 14% | 15% |
| P2 15:58 | B. Horvat NYI | snap, 13 ft | 5-on-5 | 8s after a takeaway | 32% | 28% |
| P3 6:22 | M. Maccelli NYI | wrist, 6 ft | 5-on-5 | 10s after a hit | 18% | 13% |
| P3 14:55 | C. Smith CHI | backhand, 11 ft | 5-on-5 | 18s after a giveaway | 16% | 13% |
| P3 17:26 | F. Nazar CHIGoal | slap, 24 ft | 6-on-5 | 54s after a blocked shot | 16% | 17% |
| P3 18:27 | B. Horvat NYIGoal | snap, 151 ft | empty net | 5s after a blocked shot | 50% | 65% |
Final: SJS 3, STL 2. Expected goals by our model: SJS 2.5, STL 4.0. By MoneyPuck’s: SJS 3.0, STL 3.8.
| When | Shooter | Shot | Situation | Just before | Our rating | MoneyPuck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:52 | C. McMichael STLGoal | tip in, 10 ft | 5-on-5 | 26s after a giveaway | 9% | 12% |
| P1 5:31 | M. McTavish STL | snap, 8 ft | 5-on-5 | 14s after a giveaway | 24% | 17% |
| P1 13:38 | D. Dvorsky STL | wrist, 8 ft | 5-on-5 | 3s after a save | 31% | 40% |
| P1 18:30 | M. McTavish STL | snap, 12 ft | 5-on-5 | 3s after a save | 56% | 43% |
| P2 8:48 | T. Toffoli SJSGoal | wrist, 9 ft | 5-on-5 | 3s after a hit | 16% | 25% |
| P2 8:55 | J. Snuggerud STL | wrist, 21 ft | 5-on-5 | 1s after a giveaway | 18% | 6% |
| P2 13:49 | Z. Ostapchuk SJS | wrist, 8 ft | 5-on-5 | 8s after a missed shot | 17% | 18% |
| P2 15:59 | D. Dube STL | wrist, 15 ft | 4-on-5 | 53s after a save | 17% | 17% |
| P2 19:46 | M. McTavish STL | wrist, 20 ft | 5-on-5 | 6s after a giveaway | 27% | 19% |
| P3 1:39 | D. Dube STLGoal | wrist, 28 ft | 4-on-5 | 18s after a blocked shot | 8% | 9% |
| P3 6:05 | C. Graf SJSGoal | snap, 16 ft | 5-on-5 | 60s after a hit | 19% | 32% |
| P3 8:42 | C. Graf SJS | snap, 17 ft | 5-on-5 | 3s after a giveaway | 27% | 20% |
| P4 1:03 | D. Nurse SJSGoal | wrist, 17 ft | 3-on-3 | 16s after a missed shot | 16% | 21% |
Final: COL 7, CGY 3. Expected goals by our model: COL 2.8, CGY 2.5. By MoneyPuck’s: COL 2.8, CGY 2.8.
| When | Shooter | Shot | Situation | Just before | Our rating | MoneyPuck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:10 | M. Backlund CGY | wrist, 15 ft | 5-on-5 | 17s after a missed shot | 16% | 18% |
| P1 6:44 | T. Hughes COL | snap, 14 ft | 5-on-4 | 14s after a blocked shot | 20% | 20% |
| P1 15:54 | D. Toews COLGoal | tip in, 6 ft | 5-on-5 | 7s after a giveaway | 10% | 13% |
| P1 17:30 | A. Klapka CGYGoal | wrist, 29 ft | 5-on-5 | 11s after a giveaway | 12% | 12% |
| P2 2:53 | M. Frost CGY | snap, 9 ft | 5-on-5 | 5s after a blocked shot | 20% | 18% |
| P2 6:45 | D. Toews COLGoal | wrist, 54 ft | 5-on-5 | 16s after a hit | 1% | 1% |
| P2 9:16 | C. Makar COLGoal | wrist, 34 ft | 5-on-5 | 14s after a takeaway | 6% | 6% |
| P2 11:39 | N. MacKinnon COLGoal | slap, 53 ft | 5-on-5 | 9s after a missed shot | 4% | 6% |
| P2 14:39 | M. Backlund CGY | snap, 7 ft | 5-on-5 | 10s off a faceoff | 22% | 23% |
| P2 18:27 | M. Backlund CGY | snap, 23 ft | 5-on-5 | 3s after a giveaway | 22% | 20% |
| P3 5:25 | N. MacKinnon COL | wrist, 12 ft | 5-on-5 | 29s after a missed shot | 18% | 16% |
| P3 5:35 | C. Makar COLGoal | slap, 46 ft | 5-on-5 | 10s after a missed shot | 6% | 5% |
| P3 6:07 | P. Kelly COL | snap, 30 ft | 5-on-5 | 7s after a hit | 16% | 13% |
| P3 6:34 | J. Schwartz COLGoal | snap, 25 ft | 5-on-5 | 10s after a takeaway | 19% | 18% |
| P3 7:17 | M. Backlund CGYGoal | tip in, 14 ft | 5-on-5 | 43s off a faceoff | 7% | 12% |
| P3 8:28 | K. Bahl CGYGoal | wrist, 21 ft | 5-on-5 | 19s after a missed shot | 15% | 15% |
| P3 9:41 | J. Schwartz COLGoal | wrist, 41 ft | 5-on-5 | 60s off a faceoff | 3% | 2% |
| P3 12:07 | Z. L'Heureux COL | wrist, 21 ft | 5-on-5 | 6s after a giveaway | 21% | 14% |
Final: TOR 3, VGK 4. Expected goals by our model: TOR 2.6, VGK 5.1. By MoneyPuck’s: TOR 2.6, VGK 4.8.
| When | Shooter | Shot | Situation | Just before | Our rating | MoneyPuck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:34 | J. Roslovic TORGoal | backhand, 6 ft | 5-on-5 | 15s off a faceoff | 3% | 4% |
| P1 3:20 | E. Cowan TORGoal | snap, 19 ft | 5-on-5 | 7s after a blocked shot | 18% | 21% |
| P1 8:37 | N. Paul TORGoal | slap, 10 ft | 5-on-5 | 7s after a hit | 20% | 19% |
| P1 17:36 | M. Stone VGKGoal | slap, 39 ft | 5-on-5 | 9s off a faceoff | 6% | 7% |
| P2 1:12 | B. Howden VGKGoal | deflected, 10 ft | 5-on-5 | 21s off a faceoff | 9% | 12% |
| P2 3:58 | J. Eichel VGKGoal | wrist, 14 ft | penalty shot | 0s after a penalty | 41% | – |
| P2 6:45 | T. Connelly VGK | snap, 16 ft | 5-on-4 | 13s after a blocked shot | 18% | 21% |
| P2 10:04 | N. Paul TOR | wrist, 16 ft | 5-on-5 | 13s after a giveaway | 19% | 14% |
| P3 1:39 | M. Stone VGK | wrist, 20 ft | 5-on-5 | 2s after a save | 22% | 19% |
| P3 10:36 | T. Hertl VGK | snap, 17 ft | 5-on-4 | 44s off a faceoff | 17% | 19% |
| P4 1:45 | J. Tavares TOR | snap, 21 ft | 3-on-3 | 9s after a giveaway | 28% | 26% |
| P4 2:16 | B. Howden VGK | wrist, 6 ft | 3-on-3 | 12s after a save | 32% | 29% |
| P4 3:56 | W. Nylander TOR | backhand, 6 ft | 3-on-3 | 19s after a save | 33% | 29% |
| P4 4:08 | M. Marner VGK | wrist, 14 ft | 3-on-3 | 12s after a save | 25% | 26% |
Final: SEA 6, DET 3. Expected goals by our model: SEA 3.7, DET 4.0. By MoneyPuck’s: SEA 3.3, DET 3.6.
| When | Shooter | Shot | Situation | Just before | Our rating | MoneyPuck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:34 | B. Meyers SEA | backhand, 9 ft | 5-on-5 | 3s after a missed shot | 31% | 24% |
| P1 2:39 | C. Mazur DET | wrist, 11 ft | 5-on-5 | 25s after a save | 15% | 17% |
| P1 9:19 | V. Arvidsson DETGoal | wrist, 5 ft | 5-on-4 | 1s after a save | 6% | 5% |
| P1 14:52 | B. Catton SEAGoal | backhand, 6 ft | 5-on-5 | 10s after a hit | 23% | 3% |
| P2 2:00 | L. Raymond DET | wrist, 6 ft | 5-on-5 | 8s off a faceoff | 21% | 22% |
| P2 4:00 | W. Wallinder DETGoal | snap, 60 ft | 5-on-5 | 5s after a hit | 3% | 2% |
| P2 4:39 | F. Gaudreau SEAGoal | wrist, 11 ft | 5-on-5 | 16s after a hit | 8% | 10% |
| P2 5:32 | C. Mazur DET | snap, 24 ft | 5-on-5 | 13s after a hit | 16% | 13% |
| P2 6:59 | M. Samoskevich SEAGoal | wrist, 5 ft | 5-on-5 | 23s after a giveaway | 24% | 20% |
| P2 7:44 | F. Gaudreau SEAGoal | wrist, 31 ft | 5-on-5 | 25s after a giveaway | 7% | 8% |
| P2 9:44 | B. McMann SEA | snap, 25 ft | 5-on-5 | 17s after a hit | 17% | 18% |
| P2 14:05 | B. Meyers SEAGoal | snap, 30 ft | 5-on-5 | 27s after a blocked shot | 12% | 11% |
| P3 10:57 | B. Catton SEA | wrist, 5 ft | 5-on-4 | 1s after a missed shot | 22% | 17% |
| P3 11:53 | V. Dunn SEAGoal | snap, 34 ft | 5-on-3 | 8s after a missed shot | 15% | 9% |
| P3 13:09 | S. Wright SEA | slap, 26 ft | 5-on-4 | 16s after a missed shot | 15% | 11% |
| P3 15:24 | A. DeBrincat DET | bat, 8 ft | 5-on-5 | 2s after a missed shot | 25% | – |
| P3 15:27 | M. Brandsegg-Nygård DETGoal | wrist, 5 ft | 5-on-5 | 3s after a missed shot | 56% | 53% |
Final: NYR 1, WSH 3. Expected goals by our model: NYR 2.9, WSH 4.5. By MoneyPuck’s: NYR 2.9, WSH 4.5.
| When | Shooter | Shot | Situation | Just before | Our rating | MoneyPuck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:14 | B. Jenner WSH | backhand, 5 ft | 5-on-5 | 3s after a missed shot | 36% | 35% |
| P1 10:17 | A. Lafrenière NYRGoal | snap, 33 ft | 5-on-4 | 15s after a blocked shot | 14% | 11% |
| P2 1:34 | T. Wilson WSH | snap, 18 ft | 5-on-5 | 14s after a hit | 20% | 21% |
| P2 6:08 | T. Liljegren WSHGoal | slap, 60 ft | 5-on-5 | 20s after a hit | 4% | 3% |
| P2 17:38 | B. Jenner WSHGoal | snap, 27 ft | 5-on-5 | 2s after a giveaway | 19% | 17% |
| P2 19:31 | A. Protas WSH | slap, 15 ft | 4-on-5 | 2s after a save | 26% | 22% |
| P3 4:16 | A. Lafrenière NYR | snap, 24 ft | 5-on-5 | 4s after a takeaway | 24% | 21% |
| P3 4:25 | T. Wilson WSH | wrist, 12 ft | 5-on-5 | 5s after a giveaway | 22% | 16% |
| P3 5:10 | D. Strome WSH | snap, 23 ft | 5-on-4 | 9s after a save | 22% | 20% |
| P3 18:21 | P. Dorofeyev NYR | snap, 28 ft | 6-on-5 | 6s after a takeaway | 23% | 17% |
| P3 18:35 | M. Fehérváry WSH | snap, 171 ft | empty net | 6s after a giveaway | 48% | 48% |
| P3 19:59 | T. Wilson WSHGoal | wrist, 53 ft | empty net | 17s after a missed shot | 74% | 84% |
Final: PIT 2, CBJ 3. Expected goals by our model: PIT 3.1, CBJ 5.1. By MoneyPuck’s: PIT 2.9, CBJ 4.5.
| When | Shooter | Shot | Situation | Just before | Our rating | MoneyPuck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:52 | D. Severson CBJGoal | snap, 20 ft | 5-on-5 | 10s after a hit | 12% | 15% |
| P2 2:14 | D. Voronkov CBJ | snap, 7 ft | 5-on-5 | 3s after a save | 40% | 40% |
| P2 11:40 | M. Olivier CBJGoal | snap, 28 ft | 5-on-5 | 9s after a blocked shot | 14% | 14% |
| P2 14:30 | B. Rust PITGoal | snap, 3 ft | 5-on-5 | 8s after a giveaway | 43% | 55% |
| P2 17:00 | C. Coyle CBJ | tip in, 4 ft | 5-on-5 | 22s after a missed shot | 21% | 19% |
| P2 17:03 | C. Coyle CBJ | backhand, 8 ft | 5-on-5 | 3s after a save | 44% | 4% |
| P2 17:06 | C. Coyle CBJ | wrist, 14 ft | 5-on-5 | 2s after a save | 25% | – |
| P3 3:19 | E. Malkin PITGoal | deflected, 6 ft | 5-on-5 | 6s after a save | 8% | 11% |
| P3 11:01 | B. Kindel PIT | backhand, 12 ft | 5-on-5 | 3s after a save | 36% | 25% |
| P3 16:33 | C. Coyle CBJ | snap, 16 ft | 5-on-4 | 40s off a faceoff | 20% | 21% |
| P4 1:14 | S. Crosby PIT | backhand, 7 ft | 3-on-3 | 11s after a save | 25% | 15% |
| P4 4:57 | B. Lizotte PIT | snap, 22 ft | 3-on-3 | 11s after a giveaway | 28% | 25% |
Final: ANA 5, WPG 1. Expected goals by our model: ANA 4.0, WPG 2.2. By MoneyPuck’s: ANA 3.8, WPG 2.3.
| When | Shooter | Shot | Situation | Just before | Our rating | MoneyPuck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:07 | K. Connor WPG | wrist, 23 ft | 5-on-5 | 13s after a save | 16% | 17% |
| P1 14:41 | J. Caulfield ANAGoal | snap, 10 ft | 5-on-5 | 3s after a save | 55% | 50% |
| P2 1:08 | G. Vilardi WPG | snap, 23 ft | 5-on-4 | 60s off a faceoff | 17% | 18% |
| P2 5:20 | T. Washe ANAGoal | snap, 17 ft | 5-on-5 | 13s off a faceoff | 22% | 19% |
| P2 10:27 | R. Poehling ANA | snap, 10 ft | 5-on-5 | 5s after a giveaway | 27% | 27% |
| P2 12:25 | P. Mintyukov ANA | snap, 25 ft | 5-on-5 | 19s off a faceoff | 16% | 16% |
| P2 14:16 | G. Vilardi WPG | snap, 23 ft | 5-on-4 | 9s after a takeaway | 21% | 21% |
| P3 4:25 | S. Colangelo ANAGoal | snap, 9 ft | 5-on-5 | 10s after a giveaway | 29% | 28% |
| P3 10:36 | K. Connor WPGGoal | wrist, 18 ft | 5-on-5 | 45s after a save | 14% | 20% |
| P3 14:06 | M. Granlund ANAGoal | wrist, 51 ft | 5-on-5 | 17s after a takeaway | 2% | 2% |
| P3 17:07 | C. Gauthier ANA | snap, 170 ft | empty net | 4s after a missed shot | 34% | 45% |
| P3 18:11 | V. Namestnikov WPG | wrist, 20 ft | 6-on-5 | 21s after a blocked shot | 18% | 14% |
| P3 18:42 | A. Lowry WPG | slap, 22 ft | 6-on-5 | 18s after a blocked shot | 16% | 15% |
| P3 19:19 | N. Nesterenko ANAGoal | wrist, 12 ft | empty net | 5s after a blocked shot | 94% | 83% |
A rating of 25% means shots like this one go in about one time in four. The model knows where the shot came from, what kind it was, what happened just before, and the manpower. It does not know who took it, who was in net, or whether there was a pass across the slot or a screen.