1. Strength against strength

   The Panthers are near the top of the league for the power play, and the Hurricanes are near the top of the league at the penalty kill. Our lean: the Panthers’ power play wins out. Power plays usually beat kills in these spots.

   The call The Panthers’ power play creates more than the league-average 7.6 expected goals per 60 against the Hurricanes.

   Florida 7th for the power play (8.0 expected goals per 60) · Carolina 6th for the penalty kill

   Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 0 and 0 games this season

2. Something has to give

   The Hurricanes are one of the league’s best for shot volume, and the Panthers are near the top of the league at keeping shots away. We think the Hurricanes still get theirs.

   The call The Hurricanes take more than the league-average 56.8 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5 against the Panthers.

   Carolina 2nd for shot volume (69.9 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5) · Florida 8th for keeping shots away

   Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 0 and 0 games this season

3. Active D against forward-led

   On shots from defensemen, Carolina is one of the league’s best and Florida is one of the league’s worst. That’s about as far apart as two teams get.

   The call The Hurricanes’ defensemen take a bigger share of the team’s shot attempts than the Panthers’.

   Shots from defensemen: Carolina 3rd, Florida 30th

   Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 0 and 0 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

How Florida and Carolina play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 0 and 0 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 0 games for Florida, 0 for Carolina. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

• Shots from defensemen
  Forward-ledActive D

  • Florida: 31.1% of shot attempts come from defensemen30th of 32

    Florida: nothing to show yet this season

  • Carolina: 38.0% of shot attempts come from defensemen3rd of 32

    Carolina: nothing to show yet this season

• Breakdowns avoided
  Fire drillComposed

  • Florida: 0.37 defensive breakdowns per 603rd of 32

    Florida: nothing to show yet this season

  • Carolina: 0.44 defensive breakdowns per 6027th of 32

    Carolina: nothing to show yet this season

• Depth
  Top-heavyDeep

  • Florida: 41.7% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six18th of 32

    Florida: nothing to show yet this season

  • Carolina: 43.5% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six1st of 32

    Carolina: nothing to show yet this season

• Shots from in close
  From distanceIn close

  • Florida: 30.5% of shots come from within 20 feet14th of 32

    Florida: nothing to show yet this season

  • Carolina: 28.6% of shots come from within 20 feet30th of 32

    Carolina: nothing to show yet this season

• Quality allowed
  ExposedSheltered

  • Florida: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against16th of 32

    Florida: nothing to show yet this season

  • Carolina: a 6.9% chance of scoring on the average shot against32nd of 32

    Carolina: nothing to show yet this season

• Physicality
  FinesseBruising

  • Florida: hit score 122 (100 is league average)2nd of 32Florida: 29.8 hits recorded per 602nd of 32

    Florida: nothing to show yet this season

  • Carolina: hit score 97 (100 is league average)17th of 32Carolina: 23.9 hits recorded per 6017th of 32

    Carolina: nothing to show yet this season

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Carolina is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (0 and 0 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Who Carolina is likely to send against whom

Carolina has not played at home yet this season, so there is no matching habit to show.

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

• Sources. Game data from the NHL; expected goals from this site’s own model, cross-checked against MoneyPuck.com.
• Early season. Florida has played 0 games and Carolina 0, so most numbers blend this season with last. The season switch at the top shows this season alone.
• Percentiles and ranks compare a team or player with the rest of the league: 90 means better than 90% of the league at that thing.
• Blind spots. Public game data doesn’t record passes before a shot, where defenders are standing, or rushes up the ice, so the site shows none of those.
• Hits, giveaways and takeaways depend on each arena’s scorer; anything built on them is arena-adjusted. How it works.
• Key players for each side are on the team pages.

Team pages: Florida Panthers · Carolina Hurricanes