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final

WSH5

Washington Capitals

CAR2

Carolina Hurricanes

Friday, October 2

Final · Lenovo Center

The short version

What happened

The Capitals beat the Hurricanes

The Capitals had this one put away early. Alex Tuch scored twice, opening the scoring early in the first. Four different Capitals scored.

The chances were closer than the score.

What it means

  • The previewTwo of the preview’s three calls held.
  • RecordThe Capitals are now 1-0-0.

Our pre-game read

The win chance our model worked out before the game, kept off the site until now.

We gave Washington a 27% chance, and Washington proved us wrong.

Two even teams on neutral ice50%
Home ice−4 points46%
Recent chances−15 points31%
Who's been playing−4 points27%
Back-to-back0 points27%
Our chance for Washington the morning of the game27%
Tonight's lineup+4 points
At puck drop, once the lineups were known31%

Recent chances: how much better each team’s chances have been than their opponents’ lately, with the latest games counting most. Who’s been playing: whether the players who dressed last time were stronger or weaker than the ones behind those recent games, so a star who is out or back counts straight away. Back-to-back: playing for the second night in a row. Tonight’s lineup: any change in who dressed since the last game. Only earlier games went into it, and the preview hinted at it in words without showing the number.

We gave Carolina a 73% chance, but Washington had other ideas.

Two even teams on neutral ice50%
Home ice+4 points54%
Recent chances+15 points69%
Who's been playing+4 points73%
Back-to-back0 points73%
Our chance for Carolina the morning of the game73%
Tonight's lineup−4 points
At puck drop, once the lineups were known69%

Recent chances: how much better each team’s chances have been than their opponents’ lately, with the latest games counting most. Who’s been playing: whether the players who dressed last time were stronger or weaker than the ones behind those recent games, so a star who is out or back counts straight away. Back-to-back: playing for the second night in a row. Tonight’s lineup: any change in who dressed since the last game. Only earlier games went into it, and the preview hinted at it in words without showing the number.

What the preview said, and what happened

Of the 3 calls the preview made, 2 held up, 0 partly did, and 1 didn’t happen.

  1. Before the game

    Turnovers could swing this one

    The Hurricanes turn stolen pucks into chances, and the Capitals are the league’s worst at avoiding breakdowns. A sloppy pass or two could cost the Capitals.

    The call The Hurricanes get at least their usual 7.9% of their 5-on-5 chances right after winning the puck.

    Carolina 3rd for chances off turnovers (7.9% of their chances come right after winning the puck) · Washington 32nd for avoiding breakdowns

    Didn’t happen

    4.2% of Carolina’s 5-on-5 chances came right after winning the puck, against their usual 7.9%.

    7.9%
    Coming in
    4.2%
    In this game
    7.3%
    League average

  2. Before the game

    The Hurricanes give up good looks, and the Capitals take them

    The Hurricanes have struggled to prevent dangerous shots, and the Capitals don’t waste many.

    The call The Capitals’ average shot has at least their usual 6.4% chance of going in.

    Washington 10th for shot quality (a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot) · Carolina 32nd for preventing dangerous shots

    Held up

    Washington’s average shot had a 9.5% chance of going in, against their usual 6.4%.

    Called it, and then some. Washington’s shots at 5-on-5 were more dangerous than usual: a 9.5% chance of scoring on the average shot, against their usual 6.4% (league average 6.3%). A team strays this far about once every 45 games.

    6.4% a shot
    Coming in
    9.5% a shot
    In this game
    6.3% a shot
    League average

  3. Before the game

    The Capitals get in close; the Hurricanes shoot from distance

    On shots from in close, Washington is near the top of the league and Carolina is one of the league’s worst. That’s about as far apart as two teams get.

    The call The Capitals take a bigger share of their shots from within 20 feet than the Hurricanes.

    Shots from in close: Washington 6th, Carolina 31st

    Held up

    On share of 5-on-5 shots from within 20 feet, Washington had 38% and Carolina 34%. Coming in, Washington was at 31% and Carolina at 28%.

    WSH 31% · CAR 28%
    Coming in
    WSH 38% · CAR 34%
    In this game

Each call is checked by a rule set before the game. Held up: the team reached their usual level. Partly: they fell short of their usual level but still beat the league average. When a call says one team will come out ahead, held up means they won by at least half their usual gap, and partly means they won by less. One game is a small sample, so a miss doesn’t mean the preview was wrong about the team.

Read the full preview as it stood at puck drop.

This season so far: 94 held up, 12 partly, 64 didn’t happen, out of 170 graded calls. See the track record.

Run it back

We replayed this game’s chances 100 times. Here is how often each team came out ahead.

Too close to call on chances

Played out 100 times with these chances, Washington wins 43 and Carolina 57, close to a coin flip.

43%
Washington: 34 wins, plus half of the 17 ties
57%
Carolina: 49 wins, plus half of the 17 ties

Washington had 30 chances worth 3.2 expected goals. Carolina had 51 chances worth 3.7 expected goals.

How it works: every shot in regulation that was on target or missed the net goes in as often as our expected-goals model says it should, and the game is played out 100 times that way. A rebound scramble counts as one chance, and empty-net shots are left out. A replay tied after regulation counts as half a win each, since overtime and shootouts are close to coin flips.

It doesn’t know about goalies, finishing skill or passes before a shot. It also favours the team that was chasing, because a team with a lead tends to sit back. Over the last three seasons, teams it gave 80% or more won about two games in three.

What the preview didn’t see coming

The parts of this game furthest from how these teams usually play, biggest first.

Broke the pattern: a team did the opposite of their usual habit. Further than usual: a usual habit, taken much further. Closer than usual: a usual strength or weakness that mostly disappeared. Out of character: a usually average team, far from average. Each is measured against the teams’ numbers before the game.

The numbers

How the game went, beyond the score.

WashingtonCarolina
Goals52
Shots on goal2733
Expected goals3.33.7
Shot attempts at 5-on-53851
Power plays1 of 21 of 6

Swing

How far each player swung tonight’s result, for his team or against it.

The biggest swings: A. Tuch +1.3, A. Svechnikov +1.3 and P. Dubois +0.8.

Showhighlighting

The number is roughly in goals: what he added to his team tonight, or cost it. Tap a player to see where it came from. The label beside it is his report card from “Did they do their job?” below; L1 to L4 and P1 to P3 are tonight’s lines and pairs.

How Swing is worked outHide how Swing is worked out

Scoresheet: each goal is shared 40% to the scorer, 35% to the first assist and 25% to the second, plus a quarter of the expected goals of his own shots. A penalty drawn adds 0.16 and one taken costs 0.16, what a power play is worth on average; each faceoff won or lost moves it by 0.006.

5-on-5 counts most: expected goals for minus against with him on, half compared with league average (adjusted for score and venue) and half compared with his own team when he was on the bench, plus a smaller amount for actual goals. A player on a losing team can score well if his line held its own. Special teams: power-play and penalty-kill time compared with a league-average unit.

Company kept (counted inside 5-on-5): from every player’s 5-on-5 impact over the two seasons before, a player out with strong linemates against weak opponents gives a little back, and the reverse earns a little. Goalies: goals saved above expected. Empty-net shots and shootouts are left out. One game is a small sample: this says who swung this result, not who is better.

Did they do their job?

What each player is relied on for or better than most at, and whether he delivered.

Show
  • M. RoyDid his job
    Defense
    22:29
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.6–0.2
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    3
    Blocks
    5
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill12.2typical 7.3
    • ✓Blocking shots Better than mostblocked shots5typical 2
  • V. DesharnaisMixed night
    Defense
    21:15
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    +2
    xGF–xGA
    1.4–0.6
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    3
    Blocks
    3
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill7.1typical 6.6
    • ✕Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-52.2typical 2.2
    • ✓Hitting Better than mosthits3typical 2
  • M. FehérváryMixed night
    Defense
    19:29
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.5–0.7
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    5
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill14.7typical 7.3
    • ✓Blocking shots Better than mostblocked shots5typical 2
    • ✕Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-52.2typical 2.4
  • J. ChychrunBig night

    A power-play goal, 1 assist, 73% of the 5-on-5 chances with him on. A strong game, even though his usual jobs were quieter.

    Defense
    18:51
    G
    1
    A
    1
    +/−
    +1
    xGF–xGA
    1.0–0.4
    Shots
    3
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    1
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play5.1typical 7.1
    • ≈Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.03typical 0.06
    • ✓Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-53typical 3
  • T. LiljegrenOff night
    Defense
    18:48
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    +1
    xGF–xGA
    0.9–0.3
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    2
    Blocks
    1
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill6.8typical 6.6
    • ≈Blocking shots Better than mostblocked shots1typical 2
  • A. ProtasDid his job
    Left wing
    17:36
    G
    0
    A
    1
    +/−
    +1
    xGF–xGA
    1.1–0.2
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    1
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill9.6typical 6.6
    • ✓Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-55.6typical 2.6
    • ✓Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.32typical 0.10
Show 11 more Washington playersHide the other Washington players
  • C. HutsonBig night

    A goal from a player who scores in about 1 game in 8, on top of doing his usual jobs.

    Defense
    17:08
    G
    1
    A
    0
    +/−
    +2
    xGF–xGA
    1.8–0.8
    Shots
    3
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    2
    • ✓Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.30typical 0.05
    • –Power play Relied onToo little time to judge
  • A. TuchBig night

    2 goals, 82% of the 5-on-5 chances with him on.

    Right wing
    16:38
    G
    2
    A
    0
    +/−
    +2
    xGF–xGA
    1.0–0.2
    Shots
    3
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    1
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill9.6typical 6.8
    • ✓Blocking shots Better than mostblocked shots1typical 1
    • ✓Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-53typical 2
  • T. WilsonMixed night
    Right wing
    16:37
    G
    0
    A
    1
    +/−
    +1
    xGF–xGA
    0.9–0.2
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    3
    Blocks
    3
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play5.1typical 7.0
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill12.8typical 6.9
    • ✓Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-51.4typical 2.4
  • B. JennerMixed night
    Center
    16:18
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.4–0.2
    Shots
    3
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    2
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill14.9typical 6.8
    • ≈Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-52typical 3
    • ✓Blocking shots Better than mostblocked shots2typical 1
  • A. BeauvillierDid his job
    Right wing
    13:55
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.4–0.5
    Shots
    3
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill0.0typical 6.6
    • ✓Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.30typical 0.11
  • D. StromeBig night

    2 assists.

    Center
    13:11
    G
    0
    A
    2
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.8–0.8
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    1
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play5.1typical 7.2
    • ✓Faceoffs Better than mostfaceoffs won8 of 13typical 58%
  • J. SourdifDid his job
    Center
    13:00
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.4–0.4
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-52.0typical 2.4
    • –Faceoffs Relied onToo little time to judge
  • A. OvechkinOff night
    Left wing
    12:46
    G
    0
    A
    1
    +/−
    +1
    xGF–xGA
    0.6–0.8
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    1
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play5.1typical 6.6
    • ✕Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-51typical 3
    • ✕Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.06typical 0.10
  • J. KyrouDid his job
    Right wing
    12:16
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.9–0.2
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-51.0typical 2.0
    • ✓Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.14typical 0.11
    • ✓Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-55.1typical 2.6
  • P. DuboisBig night

    2 assists, 77% of the 5-on-5 chances with him on.

    Center
    12:08
    G
    0
    A
    2
    +/−
    +2
    xGF–xGA
    1.0–0.3
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    1
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play5.1typical 6.2
    • ✓Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-55.6typical 2.5
    • ✓Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-51.7typical 2.5
  • R. LeonardDid his job
    Right wing
    12:08
    G
    1
    A
    0
    +/−
    +1
    xGF–xGA
    0.8–0.7
    Shots
    3
    Hits
    2
    Blocks
    1
    • ✓Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-55typical 3
    • ✓Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.48typical 0.10
    • –Power play Relied onToo little time to judge
How the cards are gradedHide how the cards are graded

✓ a typical night for him in the ice time he got (the level he reaches in about half his games). ≈ beat an average player at his position, a typical power play or kill, or his own team with him off the ice. ✕ neither. Power-play and penalty-kill results count half, since five players share them.

Huge night: a hat trick or four or more points. Big night: two or more points, or a goal from a player who scores in fewer than one game in five on top of doing his jobs. Rough night: no points while the other team had 70% or more of the 5-on-5 chances with him on (xGF–xGA). Plus-minus never sets the level. A shorthanded goal counts as two points. Points never fully cover for jobs that went badly: with his jobs off, a huge night reads big and a big night reads mixed.

Judged only from games before this one; 5-on-5 rates adjusted for score and venue. One game is a small sample: even a strong player misses a typical night about half the time. Both teams: 42 ✓, 9 ≈, 32 ✕.

In net

Each goalie’s night: the goals he stopped beyond what the shots were worth, and the dangerous and routine saves.

  • L. ThompsonBig night

    31 saves on 33 shots, +1.7 goals saved above expected.

    Goalie
    59:53
    Shots
    33
    Saves
    31
    Sv%
    .939
    xGA
    3.7
    GSAx
    +1.7
    Dangerous
    5/6
    • ✓Saving more than expected goals saved above expected+1.7typical +1.0
    • ✓Dangerous shots saves on shots with a 15%+ chance5 of 6typically saves 4 of 6
    • ✓Routine shots saves on shots under a 15% chance26 of 27typically saves 26 of 27
  • B. BussiOff night
    Goalie
    60:00
    Shots
    27
    Saves
    22
    Sv%
    .815
    xGA
    3.3
    GSAx
    −1.7
    Dangerous
    3/6
    • ✕Saving more than expected goals saved above expected-1.7typical +0.3
    • ✕Dangerous shots saves on shots with a 15%+ chance3 of 6typically saves 4 of 6
    • ✕Routine shots saves on shots under a 15% chance19 of 21typically saves 20 of 21

Every goalie has the same three jobs, judged against his own earlier starts (✓) and an average goalie (≈). Huge night: a shutout on 25 or more shots, or 3+ goals saved above expected. Big night: any other shutout, or 1.5+. Rough night: 2+ goals worse than expected, or pulled early after three or more.

Empty-net shots are left out. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie beaten by cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really was.

Team pages: Washington Capitals · Carolina Hurricanes