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final

FLA1

Florida Panthers

CAR0

Carolina Hurricanes

Tuesday, September 29

Final in overtime · Lenovo Center

The short version

What happened

Markstrom shuts out the Hurricanes

Gustav Forsling won it in overtime. Jacob Markstrom stopped all 15 shots.

The chances were close to even, so this one could have gone either way.

What it means

  • The previewOne of the preview’s three calls held.
  • RecordThe Panthers are now 1-0-0.

Our pre-game read

The win chance our model worked out before the game, kept off the site until now.

We gave Florida a 31% chance, and Florida proved us wrong.

Two even teams on neutral ice50%
Home ice−4 points46%
Recent chances−14 points32%
Who's been playing−1 points31%
Back-to-back0 points31%
Our chance for Florida the morning of the game31%
Tonight's lineup+5 points
At puck drop, once the lineups were known36%

Recent chances: how much better each team’s chances have been than their opponents’ lately, with the latest games counting most. Who’s been playing: whether the players who dressed last time were stronger or weaker than the ones behind those recent games, so a star who is out or back counts straight away. Back-to-back: playing for the second night in a row. Tonight’s lineup: any change in who dressed since the last game. Only earlier games went into it, and the preview hinted at it in words without showing the number.

We gave Carolina a 69% chance, but Florida had other ideas.

Two even teams on neutral ice50%
Home ice+4 points54%
Recent chances+14 points68%
Who's been playing+1 points69%
Back-to-back0 points69%
Our chance for Carolina the morning of the game69%
Tonight's lineup−5 points
At puck drop, once the lineups were known64%

Recent chances: how much better each team’s chances have been than their opponents’ lately, with the latest games counting most. Who’s been playing: whether the players who dressed last time were stronger or weaker than the ones behind those recent games, so a star who is out or back counts straight away. Back-to-back: playing for the second night in a row. Tonight’s lineup: any change in who dressed since the last game. Only earlier games went into it, and the preview hinted at it in words without showing the number.

What the preview said, and what happened

Of the 3 calls the preview made, 1 held up, 0 partly did, and 2 didn’t happen.

  1. Before the game

    Strength against strength

    The Panthers are near the top of the league for the power play, and the Hurricanes are near the top of the league at the penalty kill. Our lean: the Panthers’ power play wins out. Power plays usually beat kills in these spots.

    The call The Panthers’ power play creates more than the league-average 7.6 expected goals per 60 against the Hurricanes.

    Florida 7th for the power play (8.0 expected goals per 60) · Carolina 6th for the penalty kill

    Didn’t happen

    On the power play, Florida had 2.3 per 60. The league average is 7.6 per 60, and they came in at 8.0 per 60.

    8.0 per 60
    Coming in
    2.3 per 60
    In this game
    7.6 per 60
    League average

  2. Before the game

    Something has to give

    The Hurricanes are one of the league’s best for shot volume, and the Panthers are near the top of the league at keeping shots away. We think the Hurricanes still get theirs.

    The call The Hurricanes take more than the league-average 56.8 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5 against the Panthers.

    Carolina 2nd for shot volume (69.9 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5) · Florida 8th for keeping shots away

    Didn’t happen

    On 5-on-5 shot attempts, Carolina had 24.1 per 60. The league average is 56.8 per 60, and they came in at 69.9 per 60.

    69.9 per 60
    Coming in
    24.1 per 60
    In this game
    56.8 per 60
    League average

  3. Before the game

    Active D against forward-led

    On shots from defensemen, Carolina is one of the league’s best and Florida is one of the league’s worst. That’s about as far apart as two teams get.

    The call The Hurricanes’ defensemen take a bigger share of the team’s shot attempts than the Panthers’.

    Shots from defensemen: Carolina 3rd, Florida 30th

    Held up

    On share of 5-on-5 shot attempts taken by defensemen, Carolina had 56% and Florida 29%. Coming in, Carolina was at 38% and Florida at 31%.

    CAR 38% · FLA 31%
    Coming in
    CAR 56% · FLA 29%
    In this game

Each call is checked by a rule set before the game. Held up: the team reached their usual level. Partly: they fell short of their usual level but still beat the league average. When a call says one team will come out ahead, held up means they won by at least half their usual gap, and partly means they won by less. One game is a small sample, so a miss doesn’t mean the preview was wrong about the team.

Read the full preview as it stood at puck drop.

This season so far: 94 held up, 12 partly, 64 didn’t happen, out of 170 graded calls. See the track record.

Run it back

We replayed this game’s chances 100 times. Here is how often each team came out ahead.

Too close to call on chances

Played out 100 times with these chances, Florida wins 43 and Carolina 57, close to a coin flip.

43%
Florida: 33 wins, plus half of the 20 ties
57%
Carolina: 46 wins, plus half of the 20 ties

Florida had 29 chances worth 2.0 expected goals. Carolina had 23 chances worth 2.4 expected goals.

How it works: every shot in regulation that was on target or missed the net goes in as often as our expected-goals model says it should, and the game is played out 100 times that way. A rebound scramble counts as one chance, and empty-net shots are left out. A replay tied after regulation counts as half a win each, since overtime and shootouts are close to coin flips.

It doesn’t know about goalies, finishing skill or passes before a shot. It also favours the team that was chasing, because a team with a lead tends to sit back. Over the last three seasons, teams it gave 80% or more won about two games in three.

What the preview didn’t see coming

The parts of this game furthest from how these teams usually play, biggest first.

Broke the pattern: a team did the opposite of their usual habit. Further than usual: a usual habit, taken much further. Closer than usual: a usual strength or weakness that mostly disappeared. Out of character: a usually average team, far from average. Each is measured against the teams’ numbers before the game.

The numbers

How the game went, beyond the score.

FloridaCarolina
Goals10
Shots on goal2015
Expected goals2.12.5
Shot attempts at 5-on-52816
Power plays0 of 60 of 5

Swing

How far each player swung tonight’s result, for his team or against it.

The biggest swings: J. Blake +0.6, K. Miller +0.4 and N. Ehlers +0.4.

Showhighlighting

The number is roughly in goals: what he added to his team tonight, or cost it. Tap a player to see where it came from. The label beside it is his report card from “Did they do their job?” below; L1 to L4 and P1 to P3 are tonight’s lines and pairs.

How Swing is worked outHide how Swing is worked out

Scoresheet: each goal is shared 40% to the scorer, 35% to the first assist and 25% to the second, plus a quarter of the expected goals of his own shots. A penalty drawn adds 0.16 and one taken costs 0.16, what a power play is worth on average; each faceoff won or lost moves it by 0.006.

5-on-5 counts most: expected goals for minus against with him on, half compared with league average (adjusted for score and venue) and half compared with his own team when he was on the bench, plus a smaller amount for actual goals. A player on a losing team can score well if his line held its own. Special teams: power-play and penalty-kill time compared with a league-average unit.

Company kept (counted inside 5-on-5): from every player’s 5-on-5 impact over the two seasons before, a player out with strong linemates against weak opponents gives a little back, and the reverse earns a little. Goalies: goals saved above expected. Empty-net shots and shootouts are left out. One game is a small sample: this says who swung this result, not who is better.

Did they do their job?

What each player is relied on for or better than most at, and whether he delivered.

Show
  • S. JonesOff night
    Defense
    28:59
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.8–0.1
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play5.4typical 7.2
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill9.6typical 5.4
  • G. ForslingDid his job

    A goal from a player who scores in about 1 game in 29, so it counts for more.

    Defense
    22:40
    G
    1
    A
    0
    +/−
    +1
    xGF–xGA
    0.0–0.2
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    3
    Blocks
    2
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill14.4typical 6.5
    • ✕Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-50.1typical 2.4
    • ✓Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-51.2typical 2.3
  • N. MikkolaOff night
    Defense
    21:32
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.9–0.3
    Shots
    4
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    2
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill13.2typical 5.2
    • ✕Hitting Better than mosthits0typical 2
  • S. ReinhartDid his job
    Center
    20:57
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.4–0.1
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    4
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play5.4typical 7.3
    • ✓Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill2.0typical 5.5
    • ✓Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-50.3typical 2.2
  • A. BarkovDid his job
    Center
    20:32
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.3–0.0
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    1
    • ✓Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-50.0typical 0.0
    • ✓Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-51.7typical 0.0
  • A. EkbladOff night
    Defense
    20:17
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.2–0.1
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    2
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play0.3typical 6.4
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill11.1typical 6.4
Show 11 more Florida playersHide the other Florida players
  • S. BennettMixed night
    Center
    19:08
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.4–0.1
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    7
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play0.3typical 7.3
    • ≈Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-52typical 3
    • ✓Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.16typical 0.12
  • A. LundellMixed night
    Center
    19:02
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.6–0.1
    Shots
    3
    Hits
    2
    Blocks
    1
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play0.3typical 6.9
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill19.4typical 6.0
    • ✓Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-50.9typical 2.2
  • M. TkachukOff night
    Left wing
    19:01
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.2–0.0
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    1
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play4.9typical 8.0
    • ✕Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-51.3typical 2.4
    • ✕Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-51typical 2
  • C. VerhaegheMixed night
    Center
    18:58
    G
    0
    A
    1
    +/−
    +1
    xGF–xGA
    0.5–0.1
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    1
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play0.3typical 7.2
    • ≈Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-52.4typical 2.5
    • ✓Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-54typical 3
  • B. TkachukMixed night
    Left wing
    16:33
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    +1
    xGF–xGA
    0.4–0.0
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    4
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play3.7typical 7.4
    • ≈Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-52.3typical 2.8
    • ✓Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.19typical 0.10
  • E. LuostarinenMixed night
    Center
    13:58
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.5–0.1
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    4
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill16.1typical 5.7
    • ≈Blocking shots Better than mostblocked shots0typical 1
    • ✓Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-50.9typical 2.3
  • L. EllerOff night
    Center
    11:34
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.1–0.2
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    1
    • ✕Faceoffs Better than mostfaceoffs won2 of 9typical 53%
  • S. VilmanisDid his job
    Left wing
    11:23
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.6–0.3
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    3
    Blocks
    3
    • ✓Hitting Better than mosthits3typical 2
  • R. GudasOff night
    Defense
    10:45
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.3–0.0
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    3
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Hitting Better than mosthits3typical 2
    • ✕Blocking shots Better than mostblocked shots0typical 1
    • ✕Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-51typical 2
  • G. HathawayDid his job
    Right wing
    9:37
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.0–0.2
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    4
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill1.7typical 6.2
    • ✓Hitting Better than mosthits4typical 3
    • ≈Blocking shots Better than mostblocked shots0typical 1
  • B. ImamaDid his job
    Left wing
    6:03
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.0–0.0
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    3
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Hitting Better than mosthits3typical 1
How the cards are gradedHide how the cards are graded

✓ a typical night for him in the ice time he got (the level he reaches in about half his games). ≈ beat an average player at his position, a typical power play or kill, or his own team with him off the ice. ✕ neither. Power-play and penalty-kill results count half, since five players share them.

Huge night: a hat trick or four or more points. Big night: two or more points, or a goal from a player who scores in fewer than one game in five on top of doing his jobs. Rough night: no points while the other team had 70% or more of the 5-on-5 chances with him on (xGF–xGA). Plus-minus never sets the level. A shorthanded goal counts as two points. Points never fully cover for jobs that went badly: with his jobs off, a huge night reads big and a big night reads mixed.

Judged only from games before this one; 5-on-5 rates adjusted for score and venue. One game is a small sample: even a strong player misses a typical night about half the time. Both teams: 36 ✓, 9 ≈, 41 ✕.

Somewhere new

Things they aren’t known for, far beyond their usual pace.

A night this big would happen less than one game in fifty at his usual pace, and is at least twice what an average player at his position would manage.

In net

Each goalie’s night: the goals he stopped beyond what the shots were worth, and the dangerous and routine saves.

  • J. MarkstromBig night

    A shutout, 15 saves on 15 shots, +2.5 goals saved above expected.

    Goalie
    64:55
    Shots
    15
    Saves
    15
    Sv%
    1.000
    xGA
    2.5
    GSAx
    +2.5
    Dangerous
    5/5
    • ✓Saving more than expected goals saved above expected+2.5typical -0.1
    • ✓Dangerous shots saves on shots with a 15%+ chance5 of 5typically saves 3 of 5
    • ✓Routine shots saves on shots under a 15% chance10 of 10typically saves 9 of 10
  • B. BussiDid his job
    Goalie
    64:55
    Shots
    20
    Saves
    19
    Sv%
    .950
    xGA
    2.1
    GSAx
    +1.1
    Dangerous
    4/4
    • ✓Saving more than expected goals saved above expected+1.1typical +0.3
    • ✓Dangerous shots saves on shots with a 15%+ chance4 of 4typically saves 3 of 4
    • ✓Routine shots saves on shots under a 15% chance15 of 16typically saves 15 of 16

Every goalie has the same three jobs, judged against his own earlier starts (✓) and an average goalie (≈). Huge night: a shutout on 25 or more shots, or 3+ goals saved above expected. Big night: any other shutout, or 1.5+. Rough night: 2+ goals worse than expected, or pulled early after three or more.

Empty-net shots are left out. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie beaten by cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really was.

Team pages: Florida Panthers · Carolina Hurricanes