1. The Flyers roll four lines; the Devils lean on their top six

   On depth, Philadelphia is one of the league’s best and New Jersey is one of the league’s worst. That’s about as far apart as two teams get.

   The call The Flyers spread their forward ice time deeper down the lineup than the Devils.

   Depth: Philadelphia 3rd, New Jersey 31st

   Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 1 and 0 games this season

2. The Flyers hit; the Devils mostly don’t

   On physicality, Philadelphia is one of the league’s best and New Jersey is one of the league’s worst. That’s about as far apart as two teams get.

   The call The Flyers hit more than the Devils in the close stretches of the game.

   Physicality: Philadelphia 4th, New Jersey 31st

   Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 1 and 0 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

How Philadelphia and New Jersey play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 1 and 0 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 1 games for Philadelphia, 0 for New Jersey. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

• Depth
  Top-heavyDeep

  • Philadelphia: 43.4% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six3rd of 32

    Philadelphia: 46.5% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six2nd of 32

  • New Jersey: 40.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six31st of 32

    New Jersey: nothing to show yet this season

• Physicality
  FinesseBruising

  • Philadelphia: hit score 116 (100 is league average)4th of 32Philadelphia: 28.4 hits recorded per 608th of 32

    Philadelphia: hit score 109 (100 is league average)5th of 32Philadelphia: 35.0 hits recorded per 608th of 32

  • New Jersey: hit score 85 (100 is league average)31st of 32New Jersey: 20.6 hits recorded per 6031st of 32

    New Jersey: nothing to show yet this season

• Pace
  SlogTrack meet

  • Philadelphia: 76.7 shots per 60, both teams combined31st of 32

    Philadelphia: 87.2 shots per 60, both teams combined4th of 32

  • New Jersey: 82.8 shots per 60, both teams combined11th of 32

    New Jersey: nothing to show yet this season

• Shots from in close
  From distanceIn close

  • Philadelphia: 31.1% of shots come from within 20 feet7th of 32

    Philadelphia: 14.3% of shots come from within 20 feet14th of 32

  • New Jersey: 29.0% of shots come from within 20 feet26th of 32

    New Jersey: nothing to show yet this season

• Shot volume
  SelectiveRelentless

  • Philadelphia: 47.2 shot attempts per 6032nd of 32

    Philadelphia: 35.6 shot attempts per 6014th of 32

  • New Jersey: 58.0 shot attempts per 6013th of 32

    New Jersey: nothing to show yet this season

• Shot quality
  HopefulDangerous

  • Philadelphia: a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot13th of 32

    Philadelphia: a 3.7% chance of scoring on the average shot15th of 32

  • New Jersey: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot30th of 32

    New Jersey: nothing to show yet this season

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

New Jersey is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (1 and 0 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Who New Jersey is likely to send against whom

New Jersey has not played at home yet this season, so there is no matching habit to show.

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

D. Vladar50 starts · 1321 shots, this season and last

+10.6 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %

.985 683 shots

Medium-danger save %

.864 457 shots

High-danger save %

.691 181 shots

Shots faced per 60

25.9

Defensive breakdowns per 60

0.41

Quality starts

74%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison

• Stopping more than expected
  SieveWall
  • D. Vladar: +10.6 goals saved above expected in 50 starts
• How busy he is
  QuietUnder siege
  • D. Vladar: 25.9 shots faced per 60
• How dangerous the shots are
  ShelteredExposed
  • D. Vladar: the average shot he faces has a 6.7% chance of going in
• Breakdowns in front of him
  RareConstant
  • D. Vladar: 0.41 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
• Waiting between shots
  Steady workLong waits
  • D. Vladar: a typical wait of 79 seconds between shots
• Night-to-night steadiness
  StreakySteady
  • D. Vladar: a quality start 74% of the time

D. Vladar, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

D. Vladar1 start · 38 shots, this season

−2.3 goals saved above expected too few starts to rate

Low-danger save %

.944 18 shots

Medium-danger save %

.786 14 shots

High-danger save %

.500 6 shots

Shots faced per 60

38.2

Defensive breakdowns per 60

1.01

Quality starts

0%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison

• Stopping more than expected
  SieveWall
  • D. Vladar: −2.3 goals saved above expected in 1 start (too few starts to place)
• How busy he is
  QuietUnder siege
  • D. Vladar: 38.2 shots faced per 60 (too few starts to place)
• How dangerous the shots are
  ShelteredExposed
  • D. Vladar: the average shot he faces has a 8.8% chance of going in (too few starts to place)
• Breakdowns in front of him
  RareConstant
  • D. Vladar: 1.01 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60 (too few starts to place)
• Waiting between shots
  Steady workLong waits
  • D. Vladar: a typical wait of 60 seconds between shots (too few starts to place)
• Night-to-night steadiness
  StreakySteady
  • D. Vladar: a quality start 0% of the time (too few starts to place)

D. Vladar, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

• Sources. Game data from the NHL; expected goals from this site’s own model, cross-checked against MoneyPuck.com.
• Early season. Philadelphia has played 1 games and New Jersey 0, so most numbers blend this season with last. The season switch at the top shows this season alone.
• Percentiles and ranks compare a team or player with the rest of the league: 90 means better than 90% of the league at that thing.
• Blind spots. Public game data doesn’t record passes before a shot, where defenders are standing, or rushes up the ice, so the site shows none of those.
• Hits, giveaways and takeaways depend on each arena’s scorer; anything built on them is arena-adjusted. How it works.
• Key players for each side are on the team pages.

Team pages: Philadelphia Flyers · New Jersey Devils