1. Something has to give

   The Stars are the league’s best for chance quality, and the Blues are near the top of the league at preventing dangerous shots. We think the Stars still get theirs.

   The call The Stars’ chances are more dangerous than the league average (a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot) against the Blues.

   Dallas 1st for chance quality (a 7.0% chance of scoring on the average shot) · St. Louis 6th for preventing dangerous shots

   Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 0 and 0 games this season

2. Bring a pillow

   St. Louis plays some of the league’s slowest games, and so does Dallas. We think this one is even quieter than either team’s usual.

   The call The game runs at fewer than 75.1 shots per 60 at 5-on-5, slower than either team’s usual.

   Pace (shots per 60 at 5-on-5, both teams): St. Louis 30th (78.6), Dallas 32nd (75.1)

   Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 0 and 0 games this season

3. The Stars’ power play outclasses the Blues’

   On the power play, Dallas is one of the league’s best and St. Louis is one of the league’s worst. That’s about as far apart as two teams get.

   The call The Stars’ power play creates more per 60 than the Blues’.

   Power play: Dallas 2nd, St. Louis 31st

   Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 0 and 0 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

How St. Louis and Dallas play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 0 and 0 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 0 games for St. Louis, 0 for Dallas. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

• Power play
  HarmlessLethal

  • St. Louis: 6.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play31st of 32

    St. Louis: nothing to show yet this season

  • Dallas: 8.7 expected goals per 60 on the power play2nd of 32

    Dallas: nothing to show yet this season

• Second chances
  One-and-doneCrashers

  • St. Louis: 9.9% of chances come from rebounds30th of 32

    St. Louis: nothing to show yet this season

  • Dallas: 10.5% of chances come from rebounds3rd of 32

    Dallas: nothing to show yet this season

• Shots from in close
  From distanceIn close

  • St. Louis: 29.3% of shots come from within 20 feet26th of 32

    St. Louis: nothing to show yet this season

  • Dallas: 32.9% of shots come from within 20 feet2nd of 32

    Dallas: nothing to show yet this season

• Depth
  Top-heavyDeep

  • St. Louis: 43.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six8th of 32

    St. Louis: nothing to show yet this season

  • Dallas: 40.7% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six27th of 32

    Dallas: nothing to show yet this season

• Goaltending
  SieveWall

  • St. Louis: +0.02 goals saved above expected per 6028th of 32

    St. Louis: nothing to show yet this season

  • Dallas: +0.14 goals saved above expected per 6010th of 32

    Dallas: nothing to show yet this season

• Forecheck pressure
  PassiveHounding

  • St. Louis: forecheck score 100 (100 is league average)15th of 32St. Louis: 22.5 forecheck plays recorded per 6013th of 32

    St. Louis: nothing to show yet this season

  • Dallas: forecheck score 89 (100 is league average)27th of 32Dallas: 19.9 forecheck plays recorded per 6026th of 32

    Dallas: nothing to show yet this season

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Dallas is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (0 and 0 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Who Dallas is likely to send against whom

Dallas has not played at home yet this season, so there is no matching habit to show.

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

• Sources. Game data from the NHL; expected goals from this site’s own model, cross-checked against MoneyPuck.com.
• Early season. St. Louis has played 0 games and Dallas 0, so most numbers blend this season with last. The season switch at the top shows this season alone.
• Percentiles and ranks compare a team or player with the rest of the league: 90 means better than 90% of the league at that thing.
• Blind spots. Public game data doesn’t record passes before a shot, where defenders are standing, or rushes up the ice, so the site shows none of those.
• Hits, giveaways and takeaways depend on each arena’s scorer; anything built on them is arena-adjusted. How it works.
• Key players for each side are on the team pages.

Team pages: St. Louis Blues · Dallas Stars